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Afghan Officials Say NATO Kills 6 Civilians
VOA News July 14, 2011
Officials in eastern Afghanistan say NATO troops have killed six people during an operation, while the United Nations released a report saying the number of civilians killed during the war this year is higher than at this time in 2010.
Afghan civilian casualties rise 15%: UN report
By Farid Behbud, Zhang Jianhua
KABUL, July 14 (Xinhua) -- A total of 1,462 Afghan civilians have been killed in the first half of 2011, up 15 percent from the same period in 2010, the United Nations said in mid-year report released here Thursday.
Thousands of Afghans Flee Shelling at Border, Leaving Worrying Vacuum Behind
TIME.com By Krista Mahr Wednesday, July 13, 2011
The specter of unintended consequences has haunted most military decisions made since the U.S. declared its war on terror nearly a decade ago. And so it should not be surprising that the death of Osama bin Laden — once envisioned as the blow to end this now-global fight — may itself be causing a fresh and unforeseen aftershock in the lives of the people living at its epicenter.
Suicide Blast Kills 4 at Service for Afghan Leader's Brother
VOA News July 14, 2011
Afghan officials say a suicide bomber has attacked a mosque in the southern city of Kandahar, killing four people during a memorial service for the assassinated half-brother of President Hamid Karzai.
Afghan politicians rethink personal security
Washington Post By Kevin Sieff Thursday, July 14,2011
KABUL - Among those offering eulogies for Ahmed Wali Karzai on Wednesday, Fauzia Kofi kept her condolences brief, preoccupied by a thought that had kept her awake the previous night.
Witnesses Give Details of Ahmed Wali Karzai’s Last Minutes and His Killer
The New York Times By Carlotta Gall and Ruhullah Khapalwak 13/07/2011
KABUL - Ahmed Wali Karzai was conducting business in his normal fashion on Tuesday morning, holding court as 60 to 70 people filled the rooms of his large residence that also served as his office in central Kandahar, when one of his most faithful commanders asked to speak to him alone and then shot him at point-blank range.
China "shocked" over assassination of Afghan president's brother, FM spokesman
BEIJING, July 14 (Xinhua) -- China is "shocked" over the assassination of the half-brother of Afghan President Hamid Karzai, Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei said Thursday.
Sarkozy says French troops to be out of Afghanistan by 2013
PARIS, July 14 (Xinhua) -- French President Nicolas Sarkozy declared Thursday that French troops would complete withdrawal from Afghanistan by the end of 2013.
U.S. Drawdown Stirs Fears In Central Asia
July 14, 2011 Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty By Muhammad Tahir
WASHINGTON -- "The countries in the area that border Afghanistan are going to have a problem on their hands," Seth Cropsey, a former assistant to the U.S. secretary of defense, warns of the gradual drawdown of international troops there, "because even if the Afghan forces have been trained to defend their country from the Taliban, there are other places that the Taliban can go."
Pakistani Intelligence Chief Set for CIA Talks
VOA News July 14, 2011
Pakistan's intelligence chief is visiting Washington for talks with U.S. officials, days after the United States decided to suspend $800 million in aid to Pakistan.
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Afghan Officials Say NATO Kills 6 Civilians
VOA News July 14, 2011
Officials in eastern Afghanistan say NATO troops have killed six people during an operation, while the United Nations released a report saying the number of civilians killed during the war this year is higher than at this time in 2010.
Residents demonstrated Thursday in the city of Khost, where local officials said the six civilians were killed. NATO said it carried out an operation against Haqqani militants in the area and had no reports of civilian casualties.
Meanwhile, the U.N. mission in Afghanistan said Thursday more than 1,400 civilians were killed in the first six months of this year, and attributed the deaths to increased ground fighting, roadside bombs, suicide attacks and a rise in NATO air strikes.
The report blamed insurgents for 80 percent of civilian deaths, and said foreign and government forces were responsible for 14 percent of the killings.
The United Nations said that while the overall number of civilian deaths linked to the U.S.-led NATO coalition fell by 9 percent, there was an increase in the number of those killed by air strikes.
Violence in Afghanistan has hit the worst levels since the U.S.-led invasion in 2001, and May was the deadliest month for Afghan civilians since the United Nations mission began compiling statistics four years ago.
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Afghan civilian casualties rise 15%: UN report
By Farid Behbud, Zhang Jianhua
KABUL, July 14 (Xinhua) -- A total of 1,462 Afghan civilians have been killed in the first half of 2011, up 15 percent from the same period in 2010, the United Nations said in mid-year report released here Thursday.
"The human cost of armed conflicts for Afghan civilians rose in the first six months of 2011. Afghan civilians experienced a 15 percent increased in conflict-related civilian deaths over the past six months compared to the same period in 2010," said Georgette Gagnon, Director of Human Rights for UNAMA (United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan) in a joint press conference with the top UN envoy Staffan de Mistura here on Thursday.
The report attributed 80 percent of the civilian deaths in the first six months to the attack of Taliban insurgents and other armed groups opposing the Afghan government.
In the first half of 2010, the United Nations reported 1,271 deaths.
"This dramatic growth is mainly due to the use of landmine-like pressure plate Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) by AGEs," said Gagnon.
A further 14 percent of the deaths were attributed to Pro- Government Forces (Afghan and NATO-led forces), down 9 percent from the same period of last year, and 6 percent were unattributed, Gagnon said.
According to the report, widespread use of Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs), suicide attacks and intensified campaign of targeted killings, increased ground fighting and a rise in civilian deaths from air strikes, have contributed to the rising civilian casualties.
IEDs and suicide attacks, tactics used by AGEs, accounted for nearly half (49 percent) of all civilian deaths and injuries in the first six months of 2011, said the report.
Civilian deaths from IEDs increased 17 percent compared with the same period in 2010, making IEDs, the single largest killer of civilians in the same period of time that caused 444, or 30 percent, of all civilian deaths, according to Gagnon.
"Afghan children, women and men continue to be killed and injured at an alarming rate," said Staffan de Mistura head of UNAMA and special representative of UN Secretary General for the country.
"We have been in touch with the Taliban about the issue of civilian casualties," the top UN official said, adding that the UN expects to see reduction or elimination of the civilian casualties caused by pressure plate or indiscriminate IEDs.
According to the report, the air strikes remained the leading cause of non-combatants deaths by Pro-Government Forces, with an increasing proportion was attributed to helicopters.
Forty four of the total 79 civilian deaths from air strikes were caused by helicopter attacks. All aerial attacks in Afghanistan are carried out by the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), said the report.
Between January and June 2011, UNAMA documented 191 targeted killings compared to the 181 in the same period in 2010.
According to the report, UNAMA had also documented 2,144 injuries in the first half of this year in Afghanistan, which indicates 10 percent increase compared to the first six months of last year.
In the report, United Nations also urged both anti-government militants, Afghan government and the NATO-led troops to avoid harming civilians.
"All civilian deaths and injuries, no matter what party is responsible, have tragic and lasting impacts on families and communities," de Mistura said, "Civilians will only 'win' in Afghanistan when civilian casualties decreases across the board."
The latest numbers on civilian deaths come on the same day when five civilians were killed and 15 others injured when a suicide bomber blew himself up in a mosque in southern Kandahar city.
The suicide bombings occurred Thursday afternoon when people gathered to pray for Ahmad Wali Karzai, younger brother of President Hamid Karzai, the head of Kandahar Provincial Council, who was assassinated at his home on Tuesday.
A total of 2,777 civilian lost their lives in 2010 in insurgency-hit country.
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Thousands of Afghans Flee Shelling at Border, Leaving Worrying Vacuum Behind
TIME.com By Krista Mahr Wednesday, July 13, 2011
The specter of unintended consequences has haunted most military decisions made since the U.S. declared its war on terror nearly a decade ago. And so it should not be surprising that the death of Osama bin Laden — once envisioned as the blow to end this now-global fight — may itself be causing a fresh and unforeseen aftershock in the lives of the people living at its epicenter.
In the past three months, up to 12,000 civilians in eastern Afghanistan have been displaced by an increasingly regular drumming of shells from across the porous, ill-defined border with Pakistan. The villages and hamlets in Kunar and Nangarhar provinces have been reporting sporadic shelling and gunfire coming from their neighbor since the beginning of the year. But since the clandestine May mission in Abbottabad that killed bin Laden, the Pakistani army has upped its own fight against militants in the border region.
“The daily shelling started around June,” says Ilija Todorovic, head of the suboffice of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNCHR) in eastern Afghanistan. “From what I'm hearing, this will continue.” He says the impact of the shells on the isolated clusters of homes in the mountainous swath of northeast Afghanistan has varied, but whatever the physical damage done, “it causes fear. Villagers leave. Some immediately; some go in the morning.”
(Watch a video about the U.S. fight in Afghanistan.)
The ongoing shelling, which Kabul estimates has killed nearly 50 people, has been a source of growing tension between the neighboring states. Earlier this week hundreds of protestors gathered in Lashkar Gah, the capital of Helmand province, and the eastern city of Jalalabad to demand that President Hamid Karzai fire back across the border, an act of retaliation that the Afghan leader, whose half-brother was assassinated yesterday in Kandahar, has so far resisted despite the wishes of some members of his own cabinet. Kabul estimates that more than 800 rockets have been fired into Afghanistan in the last month alone.
Pakistan, for its part, has countered that it, too, has been attacked by militants hiding out on the Afghanistan side of the border, and says that its neighbor's claims of shelling are exaggerated. “There may have been few civilian casualties, but now the situation is under control,” Pakistan's chief military spokesman told the Wall Street Journal.
But civilians in western Pakistan, too, have been fleeing their homes as the anti-insurgency campaign intensified last month. Tens of thousands of people have already left their homes in Pakistan's Kurram agency along the border with Afghanistan. Local authorities say numbers could eventually rise to nearly 85,000 as the clamp down continues. In the last three years, conflict between Pakistan's army and militants in the northwest have displaced four million people, according to the UNHCR.
During past military interventions in Pakistan's border areas, thousands of Pakistanis have escaped west to Afghanistan, seeking shelter with the same families that had lived with them before the fall of the Taliban. That hasn't occurred yet in this campaign, but Todorvoric doesn't rule it out. “Afghans remember those links with Pakistanis on the other side, and they are paying back the hospitality,” he says. “They take care of each other.”
Those ties are as important now as ever. Further escalation in cross-border tensions and between Kabul and Islamabad could have grim consequences — and not just for the civilians living on either side of this rugged, sparsely populated landscape. Most of the 12,000 displaced Afghans are now staying with extended family or community members, waiting to go home to their farms and herds when things quiet down. But their homeland has long been a transit area for militants between Pakistan and Kabul, and a continuing disturbance to daily life there may build resentment and draw people to the insurgents' cause as the U.S. military begins to withdraw its troops.
"You name any anti-government element – they've passed through there," Todorovic says. “The area is insecure to begin with. The longer people remain displaced, and if they are unable to return, it can destabilize the situation. It will make it more volatile."
Krista Mahr is a reporter at TIME. Find her on Twitter at @kristamahr. You can also continue the discussion on TIME's Facebook page and on Twitter at @TIME.
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Suicide Blast Kills 4 at Service for Afghan Leader's Brother
VOA News July 14, 2011
Afghan officials say a suicide bomber has attacked a mosque in the southern city of Kandahar, killing four people during a memorial service for the assassinated half-brother of President Hamid Karzai.
The Interior Ministry said the attack Thursday killed the head of the provincial religious council and three others. Local officials said another 13 people were wounded.
No one immediately claimed responsibility for the blast.
The attack comes a day after Karzai led thousands of mourners at the funeral of Ahmad Wali Karzai, who was chief of the Kandahar provincial council and a powerful figure in the country's south
He was shot dead on Tuesday at his home in Kandahar city by a trusted longtime member of his own security team. The man, identified as Sardar Mohammad, was then killed by other guards.
The Taliban claimed responsibility for the assassination. But Afghan officials said it is not clear whether Wali Karzai's killing was related to the insurgency or to an internal feud.
Kandahar is the birthplace of the Taliban and violence has increased as international troops work to clear the south of insurgents.
On Wednesday, the governor of nearby Helmand province escaped injury after his convoy was hit by a roadside bomb while traveling to the funeral. Two security officials accompanying Governor Gulab Mangal were wounded in the attack.
Ahmad Wali Karzai was considered the most influential official in southern Afghanistan. Analysts say his death creates a power vacuum in the volatile region, where President Karzai relied on his brother to help maintain support among his ethnic Pashtun community.
While Wali Karzai was seen as a key power broker and an ally of the international forces fighting the Taliban, he was also accused of corruption, drug trafficking, and being on the CIA's payroll - allegations he denied.
Some information for this report was provided by AP and Reuters.
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Afghan politicians rethink personal security
Washington Post By Kevin Sieff Thursday, July 14,2011
KABUL - Among those offering eulogies for Ahmed Wali Karzai on Wednesday, Fauzia Kofi kept her condolences brief, preoccupied by a thought that had kept her awake the previous night.
“If they can kill Ahmed Wali, then they can kill any of us,” said Kofi, a member of Afghanistan’s parliament. “What does this mean for our security?”
Kofi frantically rearranged her 10-member security detail Wed¬nesday, replacing several bodyguards she considered questionable.
“The longer they’re here,” she said, “the more time the Taliban has to recruit them.”
After a string of recent attacks targeting top officials, Afghan political, military and business leaders who are responsible for establishing a stable democracy in their country have more immediate — and more paralyzing — concerns about their personal safety. Afghanistan has long been a land of shifting alliances and uncertain loyalties, but increasingly, members of the ruling class are being forced to look to their inner circles for possible infiltrators.
In the past several months, Gen. Mohammad Daud Daud, northern Afghanistan’s top police commander; Gen. Khan Mohammad Mujahid, the police chief of the southern province of Kandahar; and Gen. Abdul Rahman Sayedkhili, the police chief of the northern province of Kunduz, were killed in attacks for which the Taliban has taken credit.
Many say the targeted attacks, including the one Tuesday on the president’s powerful and divisive half brother, were inside jobs — a sign of the Taliban’s growing ability to infiltrate the Afghan security establishment. The man accused of killing Karzai, Sardar Mohammad, had built trust with the family for many years, working as a guard and police commander. The Taliban has asserted responsibility for Karzai’s killing, but Mohammad’s motives are not known.
“The enemy has changed its tactic and has focused now on infiltration, and there is no measure to stop this,” said a top Afghan security official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
In recent months, insurgents who have penetrated Afghan police and military ranks have also targeted Americans, a strategy that has created friction between U.S. troops and the Afghan security forces they are training.
Many Afghan officials, meanwhile, have survived close calls. In June, not long after Samiullah Qatra was appointed Sayedkhili’s successor in Kunduz, he was nearly killed in a suicide attack, too. Four of Qatra’s bodyguards were killed.
“I believe that whenever one’s death is destined, you will die,” Qatra said. “Still, we have taken our measures by focusing on intelligence-gathering and providing education to the police.”
At the parliament, protected by a smattering of run-down checkpoints and dysfunctional metal detectors, Afghan officials vacillated between resignation and hysteria. Some refused to make any changes to their security details. Others met with guards to demand swift improvements and heightened protection.
The parliament’s security unit advised politicians to avoid gathering in large numbers except for scheduled meetings. Kofi was promised that the unit would keep her abreast of possible threats.
Sitting in a meeting room outside the parliament’s main chamber, she sighed. The government had warned her last month that she was on a list of Taliban targets, Kofi said.
“I’m not safe even in my bedroom,” she said.
Among politicians here, there’s little uniformity when it comes to personal security. Kofi, like most members of parliament, uses state-provided bodyguards, recruited by a central government she doesn’t much trust. The Interior Ministry uses the same vetting process for high-level bodyguards as the nation’s police force — an organization that Taliban members have repeatedly infiltrated in recent months.
But wealthy, well-connected politicians fund their own security details, which often amount to small-scale militias. Abdul Zahir Qadir, the son of a former Afghan vice president, keeps a staff of 20 military-trained bodyguards.
“I’ve known them my whole life,” he said. “Their fathers were my father’s bodyguards. Their grandfathers were my grandfather’s bodyguards.”
Qadir sat in his air-conditioned office, wearing a watch speckled with diamonds under a beige shalwar kameez. In the past decade, there have been three attempts on his life. He smiles as he tells the stories, proud of having fooled death.
His father, Abdul Qadir, was not so lucky. In 2002, he was shot 35 times as he stepped out of his car in Kabul. He had decided that morning not to bring bodyguards.
“We must always be ready for death,” Qadir said. As if on cue, someone knocked loudly at his door. Qadir flinched, and then laughed.
Other prominent Afghans have come to rely on private security companies that boast vetting processes more stringent than the government’s.
Kabul-based White Eagle Security coordinates with tribal leaders, police chiefs and provincial officials before hiring its guards. That system has been largely effective, but in Afghanistan, said Ian Hall, a White Eagle official, no vetting process is without problems.
“In the current situation, you can’t trust anyone,” he said.
Special correspondent Sayed Salahuddin contributed to this report.
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Witnesses Give Details of Ahmed Wali Karzai’s Last Minutes and His Killer
The New York Times By Carlotta Gall and Ruhullah Khapalwak 13/07/2011
KABUL - Ahmed Wali Karzai was conducting business in his normal fashion on Tuesday morning, holding court as 60 to 70 people filled the rooms of his large residence that also served as his office in central Kandahar, when one of his most faithful commanders asked to speak to him alone and then shot him at point-blank range.
The head of the elected provincial council, Mr. Karzai wielded power far beyond that office, both because he was a half brother to the president, Hamid Karzai, and because he had amassed great wealth and power over business, security and administrative affairs in Kandahar Province and much of southern Afghanistan.
Every day his office was filled with petitioners, provincial officials, and tribal and family friends who came to seek his advice and support on business matters, political dealings and tribal disputes.
On Tuesday morning he sat for half an hour with Mir Wali, a former legislator from neighboring Helmand Province, who is one of those contesting recent parliamentary election results. Then a fellow provincial councilor, Haji Agha Lalai, entered and requested five minutes of Mr. Karzai’s time. The two descended to the first floor and sat for a few minutes before an old man from the city requested a hearing.
Mr. Karzai moved into a room with the old man, and it was then that a commander, Sardar Muhammad, 40, asked to see Mr. Karzai alone. He was carrying a file and wanted Mr. Karzai to look at the information inside, said Haji Sayed Jan, a close colleague who is considered Mr. Karzai’s deputy on the provincial council.
The commander was well known and so trusted by the Karzai family that he would pick up and carry Mr. Karzai’s young son into the family quarters. For his services, he was awarded a plot of land in an upscale Kandahar housing development. He also commanded about 100 men and managed the police posts in an area called Zakar, adjoining the family neighborhood of Karz on the southern side of the city.
“There was no argument between Sardar Muhammad and Ahmed Wali,” Mr. Jan said. The commander had been working with the Karzai family for eight years and came from the same Populzai tribe, he said.
Yet he came to see Mr. Karzai on Tuesday morning with a purpose, opening fire as soon as they went inside the room, Mr. Jan said. “He came deliberately to kill him. He gave him a file and told him he should look at it and as he was looking he took out his pistol and shot him.”
None of those who knew Mr. Muhammad accepted the Taliban’s claim that he was acting on behalf of insurgents. Two people who knew him said he was a drug user, and suggested that he became angry over some dispute with Mr. Karzai. Members of the police often use hashish in Afghanistan.
“I would not connect it with the Taliban,” a relative of Mr. Muhammad said, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was discussing a crime. “He was very much liked and loved by Ahmed Wali. It is very difficult to say why he did it.”
“He was using drugs,” he added, declining to be more specific.
Witnesses said security guards burst into the room as soon as they heard the first shot and killed the commander as he fired off a third bullet. Mr. Karzai was shot twice in the head and once in the hand, said Haji Agha Lalai, a provincial councilor who was in the room next door when the shooting began. He said he helped carry the wounded Mr. Karzai down to a car and accompanied him to the hospital.
“I was holding him and I was not very sure he would survive,” he said. “It was confirmed in the hospital that he was dead.”
Mr. Karzai’s bodyguards were angry and continued shooting, and some were in tears, said Mr. Wali, the former legislator. “We came out and we saw Ahmed Wali being carried out and Sardar Muhammad was lying on the floor,” he said.
Some of Mr. Karzai’s security guards dragged the assailant’s body out of the building and strung him up at the crossroads of the central bazaar, said an intelligence official in Kandahar. It was a grim reminder of the Taliban era, when criminals were killed and put on public display.
Supporters gathered at the city hospital, where American and Afghan forces quickly set up a security cordon as Mr. Karzai’s body was moved to the morgue.
As word spread in the city, shopkeepers shuttered their stores and went home in fear of further violence. Security forces set up checkpoints, stopping cars as officials warned that Taliban insurgents would use the opportunity to strike another blow at the government.
Residents, tribal elders and politicians warned that the violent death of Mr. Karzai and the subsequent power vacuum would cause greater instability.
“It is a disaster,” said Mr. Wali. “It will have a very negative effect on everything in the south.”
“There will be problems ahead for Kandahar,” said Haji Karimullah Naqibi, a leader of one of Kandahar’s largest tribes. “The president will have to administer and watch Kandahar very closely from now on.”
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China "shocked" over assassination of Afghan president's brother, FM spokesman
BEIJING, July 14 (Xinhua) -- China is "shocked" over the assassination of the half-brother of Afghan President Hamid Karzai, Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei said Thursday.
"We express condolences and sympathy for the family of the victim," Hong said at press conference.
"As a friendly neighbor, we sincerely wish for Afghanistan to realize peace and stability at an early date," he said.
Ahmad Wali Karzai, head of the Afghan Kandahar's Provincial Council and the younger half-brother of President Hamid Karzai, was shot dead by one of his bodyguards on Tuesday.
The Afghan Taliban has claimed responsibility for the assassination.
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Sarkozy says French troops to be out of Afghanistan by 2013
PARIS, July 14 (Xinhua) -- French President Nicolas Sarkozy declared Thursday that French troops would complete withdrawal from Afghanistan by the end of 2013.
Sarkozy made the remarks in an interview with a local television channel after the military parade on the Champs Elysees Avenue.
Following the traditional ceremony marking the celebration of France's National Day , Sarkozy, together with Prime Minister Francois Fillon, Foreign Minister Alain Juppe, Defense Minister Gerard Longuet and the French General Staff Edouard Guillaud will hold a security meeting on the safety of French troop deployed overseas.
France's National Day this year was overshadowed by the deaths of five French soldiers killed by a suicide bomber in Afghanistan the day before.
Sarkozy visited the Percy military hospital in the morning to meet with soldiers injured in Afghanistan.
"We are now faced with more actions of terrorist type, not just military action ... it is a new situation and facing this new situation, it needs new safety measures," Sarkozy said.
According to the French president, who is geared for the next presidential election in 2012, French army needs to be prepared to "new conditions" from now to its departure from Afghanistan.
Early this week, France has announced a schedule that a quarter of its 4000 soldiers stationed in Afghanistan would pull out by the end of 2012.
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U.S. Drawdown Stirs Fears In Central Asia
July 14, 2011 Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty By Muhammad Tahir
WASHINGTON -- "The countries in the area that border Afghanistan are going to have a problem on their hands," Seth Cropsey, a former assistant to the U.S. secretary of defense, warns of the gradual drawdown of international troops there, "because even if the Afghan forces have been trained to defend their country from the Taliban, there are other places that the Taliban can go."
Immediately after President Barack Obama's June 22 speech announcing a timetable for the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, several other NATO allies, including the United Kingdom, France, and Germany, followed suit with statements detailing pullouts of their own. Canada has since ended its combat mission.
Today the Taliban may lack a physical presence in the former Soviet republics of Central Asia, but those are the countries that have the most to fear as the security situation in northern Afghanistan continues to deteriorate.
It is direct neighbor Tajikistan that is likely to feel the impact most directly. A nation of 7.5 million people that shares a 1,400-kilometer border with Afghanistan, it competes with Kyrgyzstan for the title of Central Asia's poorest country.
Tajikistan's already fragile security situation contributes to its vulnerability, with some homegrown militant groups fighting against the government of long-serving President Emomali Rahmon.
But the challenges to stability come not only from local militants. Culprits also include regional organizations like the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), with its close ties to the Taliban and Al-Qaeda operatives in Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Reports suggest that the IMU is actively coordinating attacks with the Taliban in northern Afghanistan. The IMU is also said to be involved in insurgent activities in other parts of Central Asia.
The IMU's stated goal is the creation of an Islamist caliphate across Central Asia. Founded in 1991, it has fought and trained with Al-Qaeda, notably along the notorious border region separating Afghanistan from Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).
Alexander Cooley, a professor at Barnard College in New York City, notes that "one has to be careful about statements from Central Asian governments, who play militant cards to get military assistance from foreign countries. But the situation in Tajikistan is serious."
"In the case of Tajikistan, we see a country that's already deteriorating by a number of measures, and especially the eastern part of the country might be susceptible to sort of cross-border types of campaigns and insurgencies," Cooley says.
The cross-border threats are real, and infiltration across the border into Tajikistan is already a serious source of concern despite the presence of thousands of coalition forces on the ground in northern Afghanistan.
Incidents in which Afghans cross the border and kidnap Tajik citizens on the other side have lately become a fixture of life for Tajik villages in the border region.
Tajiks whose relatives have been taken hostage are forced to pay large sums to secure the release of their loved ones.
In addition to the constant threat of infiltration by militant groups, the cross-border drug trade is another serious cause of concern for Tajikistan and the wider region, including Russia.
On July 1, Russian's antidrug tsar, Viktor Ivanov, visited Dushanbe to discuss Tajikistan's border with Afghanistan and the possibility of Russian soldiers returning to the Tajik-Afghan border to bring the situation under control. Russian troops were stationed on that frontier until 2005, when Moscow withdrew them to demonstrate confidence in the Tajikistan government.
Farther to the north, officials in Kyrgyzstan blame Afghan drug money and local Islamist militants for shaky security in southern Kyrgyzstan, where ethnic tensions led to bloodshed and massive displacement in 2010.
Uzbekistan's leaders accuse Afghan groups of fomenting a 2005 revolt in the Ferghana Valley -- though such claims are disputed by independent analysts who contend that that rebellion should be blamed on domestic factors rooted in resistance to Uzbekistan's harsh authoritarian government.
Afghan security officials acknowledge their failure to clamp down on the border but blame their inability to control the situation on a lack of troops and equipment.
Speaking on Afghan television, the commander of border security forces in the north of the country, General Abdul Habib Sayedkhil, said on July 8 that he had only 4,000 personnel to protect the entire 2,431-kilometer border with Central Asian states.
How the Afghan forces will fare in the absence of coalition troops remains an open question.
The ex-Pentagon official Cropsey, who is now a senior foreign policy fellow at the Hudson Institute, a Washington-based think tank, says that "such a scenario will only raise more serious concerns about the stability and security situation of the Central Asian countries, which are already unstable."
"There are serious problems in Kyrgyzstan...[and there are] serious problems in Uzbekistan," Cropsey says. "The question of political stability is a constant one in central Asia. If a country is politically unstable, its ability to resist invasion is reduced tremendously."
Barnard College professor Cooley points out that the security situation in Central Asia is not only a matter for concern to local governments. It is also a factor in the geopolitical competition among the great powers with direct interests in the region.
"I think one of the hidden consequences of the U.S. drawdown is that it's going to throw into sharper relief Russian and Chinese competition over the region, which I think has been hidden so far, in that they are both concerned and nervous about the permanency of the U.S. presence," Cooley says. "But with the U.S. drawing down, I think it's going to focus more the question of whose security priorities are being served in the region, China's [or] Russia's, and I think it's going to intensify the rivalry between the two."
Additional evidence of the regional anxiety about the drawdown came at the June 15 summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a security forum that brings together Russia, China, and the Central Asian states. The meeting devoted significant discussion to Afghanistan.
In an interview with "The Christian Science Monitor," Russian expert Aleksandr Dugin, who heads the right-wing International Eurasian Movement allying Russian academics, policymakers, and interested observers, said that "the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan concerns all the surrounding countries."
"The West is far away, but we are near," Dugin said. "This is our security zone, and that is why only an organization like the SCO can potentially hold out a constructive alternative for Afghanistan."
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Pakistani Intelligence Chief Set for CIA Talks
VOA News July 14, 2011
Pakistan's intelligence chief is visiting Washington for talks with U.S. officials, days after the United States decided to suspend $800 million in aid to Pakistan.
Ahmad Shuja Pasha is expected to meet with acting CIA Director Michael Morell and other officials. The Pakistani military says the talks will be to coordinate intelligence matters.
The visit follows meetings Wednesday in Pakistan between the top U.S. commander for troops in the region, General James Mattis, and Pakistani military officials, including army chief, General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani.
Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani expressed concern Wednesday about the U.S. decision to suspend one-third of its annual military aid to his country. Mr. Gilani said that while the fight against militants on Pakistani territory is Pakistan's war, the country's efforts are benefiting the whole world.
Relations between the two sides have been strained since the covert U.S. raid deep into Pakistani territory that killed al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden on May 2.
A Pentagon spokesman said earlier this week the decision to withhold a third of its military aid to Pakistan is in response to Islamabad's decision to expel American military trainers and put limits on visas for U.S. personnel.
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