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Afghanistan makes plans for election run-off
by Lynne O'Donnell September 18, 2009
KABUL (AFP) – Afghanistan has begun contingency plans for a potential run-off to its deeply controversial presidential election as officers recount hundreds of thousands of suspect votes, officials said Friday.
AFGHANISTAN: DEMOCRATIZATION PROCESS THREATENED AS FAÇADE OF INTERNATIONAL UNITY CRUMBLES
A EurasiaNet commentary by Aunohita Mojumdar 9/17/09
The international community is bitterly divided as it struggles to find a solution to the democratization dilemma posed by evidence of widespread fraud in the recent presidential election.
Tremendous challenges face next Afghan president
by Yu Zhixiao
BEIJING, Sept. 18 (Xinhua) -- The new Afghan president, whomever it may finally be, will be sorely tested by a variety of daunting challenges in the coming five years, analysts say.
Restoring Afghanistan
Wall Street Journal BY ANN MARLOWE SEPTEMBER 17, 2009
Afghanistan is not quite ready for tourists. But when it is they will stand here, at the edge of Kabul's Old City, preparing to explore the area of a couple of square miles known as Asheqan wa Arefan.
Afghan Vote Uncertainty Creates Dilemma for U.S.
New York Times By MARK LANDLER and HELENE COOPER September 17, 2009
WASHINGTON - The Obama administration now fears that the Afghan election may not produce a clear winner until next spring, which officials said could throw President Obama's policies into flux by leaving
White House Girds For Afghan Troop Debate
By Heather Maher Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty September 18, 2009
WASHINGTON -- President Barack Obama said this week that "there is no immediate decision pending" on whether he will send more combat troops to Afghanistan, but members of Congress are already staking
Suicide attack 'kills up to 14' in Pakistan market
by S.H. Khan September 18, 2009
PESHAWAR, Pakistan (AFP) – A suicide car bomb tore through a Pakistan market, killing up to 14 people and trapping others under the debris on Friday as families shopped for a major religious festival, police said.
'Time against' Afghanistan forces
BBC News Friday, 18 September 2009
UK and other Nato forces in southern Afghanistan do not have time on their side, the British general soon to take charge of troops in the area has said.
Afghanistan: No unreserved Taliban support for Peace Day
KABUL, 18 September 2009 (IRIN) - Taliban insurgents have called the UN-initiated International Peace Day, 21 September, "a futile showy day" but said their fighters will be in a defensive position on the day.
Berlusconi Says Italy to Withdraw 500 Afghanistan Troops Soon
Bloomberg By Steve Scherer Sept. 18, 2009
Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said that he plans to bring home at least 500 of the country's 3,000 troops deployed in Afghanistan “in the next few weeks” after six were killed in a suicide bombing in Kabul yesterday.
Eradicating polio in Afghanistan takes persuasion, participation and peace
Source: United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) by Cornelia Walther
GHOR, Afghanistan, 17 September 2009 – A three-day polio eradication campaign, organized by the World Health Organization and UNICEF, reached children across Afghanistan this month.
Will Japan's new leaders continue to support US in Afghanistan?
Japanese Foreign Minister Okada said that Japan should focus on assistance to both Afghanistan and Pakistan. The government has not been clear on whether it will continue its refueling mission.
The Christian Science Monitor By Takehiko Kambayashi September 17, 2009
Tokyo - Soon after Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama's cabinet members were inaugurated Wednesday, Japan's new foreign minister Katsuya Okada underscored his country's commitment to the international community.
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Afghanistan makes plans for election run-off
by Lynne O'Donnell September 18, 2009
KABUL (AFP) – Afghanistan has begun contingency plans for a potential run-off to its deeply controversial presidential election as officers recount hundreds of thousands of suspect votes, officials said Friday.
The Independent Election Commission (IEC), which has come under fire for favouring incumbent Hamid Karzai who leads a preliminary vote count, has previously denied that any preparations were being made for a run-off.
Afghans voted on August 20 for a new president in only the second such election in their history and one held amid a vicious Taliban insurgency against the Western-backed government which deterred voters.
The IEC released preliminary results this week, giving Karzai a clear majority of 54.6 percent -- beyond the threshold of 50 percent plus one vote needed to avoid a run-off -- and former foreign minister Abdullah Abdullah 27.8 percent.
Abdullah has called for a run-off against Karzai, whom he accuses of massive vote-rigging and observers have suggested that recounts of suspect votes could slim down Karzai's margin enough to force a second round.
The UN-backed Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) has ordered recounts at more than 2,500 polling stations, around 10 percent of the total, after it found "clear and convincing evidence of fraud".
EU observers also identified 1.5 million votes that could be fraudulent -- nearly a quarter of the total valid votes and 1.1 of them cast for Karzai.
"If a run-off takes place, we will be ready. We cannot wait, we have started getting ready," an IEC official told AFP on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the information.
"Our colleagues are now in London, where they have designed and prepared the ballot papers to be printed for the run-off," the official added.
"We are printing the ballot papers in London for safety reasons, we could print them in Afghanistan but we decided not to so as to avoid fraud. That could just undermine the run-off process.
"For the election we printed 40 million papers, both for presidential and parliamentary elections, but this time it's going to be only 17 million."
Karzai told a televised news conference on Thursday that any fraud during the August 20 elections was minimal -- and normal -- promising to respect any decision made by the IEC once investigations are complete.
The IEC has the power to call for a run-off or declare a victor, once all investigations are complete -- which officials involved in the process say will take another two to three weeks.
Under Afghan electoral law, a run-off should take place within two weeks of the final results being announced. One Western official working with electoral authorities said Friday that mid-October seemed most likely.
Any later than early November and the weather would be too severe in mountainous regions, and a run-off would have to wait until early next year.
Observers warn such a long wait would exacerbate the political stalemate, benefiting Islamist insurgents who have already exploited the government's weakness to steal a march across the country.
The Taliban's talent for breaching Kabul's heavy security was demonstrated yet again Thursday, when a massive suicide car bomb killed 10 Afghan civilians and six Italian soldiers not far from the US embassy.
Colonel Fabio Mattiassi, spokesman for the Italian contingent with NATO's International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), said the bodies would be repatriated on Saturday after a prayer service at Kabul's military airport.
Four other soldiers wounded in the attack were not able to travel he said, "because of problems with shock and trauma".
Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said Italy now wanted to cut down its deployment in Afghanistan but only with agreement from NATO partners.
The bombing, claimed by the Taliban, was the third in Kabul in a month, and appears part of an emerging pattern of attacks on international military installations and personnel in the capital.
Foreign military deaths in Afghanistan are at record levels -- 357 this year, according to icasualties.org -- and the mounting number of Western troops coming home in body bags has sent support for the war plummeting in Europe and the US.
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AFGHANISTAN: DEMOCRATIZATION PROCESS THREATENED AS FAÇADE OF INTERNATIONAL UNITY CRUMBLES
A EurasiaNet commentary by Aunohita Mojumdar 9/17/09
The international community is bitterly divided as it struggles to find a solution to the democratization dilemma posed by evidence of widespread fraud in the recent presidential election.
The spectacular falling out between the United Nation’s top man in Afghanistan, Kai Eide, and his deputy, Peter Galbraith, underscores the international community’s disarray at this critical hour for Afghanistan’s democratization process. The Eide-Galbraith rupture - which resulted in Galbraith’s departure from Afghanistan, ostensibly for a ’cooling down’ period - also has confirmed a schism within the international community over how to engage the Afghan government and its key power brokers. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
According to published reports, Galbraith, an American diplomat, wanted to see wide-scale recounts of the presidential poll, whereas Eide was far more restrained in his desire to question the voting results. The UN admitted to a rift between the two on September 15, but would not go so far as to say that Galbraith had been dismissed.
The immediate beneficiary of the row appears to be the incumbent Afghan government, which is whipping up anti-foreigner sentiment in an attempt to shore up its shaky credibility. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
The evident fault lines within the UN Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) seem to extend through the international community in Kabul, and even to the European Union. The appearance of disarray came after two international conferences, one in Paris on September 2-3, followed by a meeting of EU ministers in Stockholm on September 4. Those gatherings had been expected to develop a coordinated approach toward the new Afghan government and strengthen a common agenda.
While few details have emerged from those meetings, a ’Kabul summit’ was proposed by the UN as a way of giving momentum to the new Afghan government. Expected in the spring, it is meant to bring a new energy to reconstruction efforts and emphasize the need for accountability within the Afghan government.
While that summit is still expected to take place, it appeared that it would be upstaged when the EU’s Big Three - Germany, France and Britain -- called for an international donor conference on Afghanistan before the end of this year. The design of such a summit would be to create benchmarks to evaluate the Afghan government’s performance. Currently a tussle is continuing within the EU over the need for the meetings. The EU presidency, now held by Sweden, has come down on the side of the UN in the debate.
The differences on elections within the UN are being viewed as a dispute between accommodationists and hard-liners on the issue of Afghan election fraud. The divide, which has also been projected as one separating the United States and the UN, reportedly centers on whether a second round of polling is needed to give crucial credibility to the next Afghan government. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
Those advocating a less rigorous approach argue that a perfect election was not possible. They add that instances of fraud need to be addressed, but need not be pushed so far as to delay the final result beyond October, or do anything that might de-legitimize the next presidential administration. To push the issue of fraud too far risks stoking political instability, the accommodationists claim.
Those advocating a more rigorous approach, or hardliners, have argued that a second round of polling and a more thorough investigation offers the best guarantee of legitimacy for the next government, and thus would best assist the international community in achieving its democratization goals in Afghanistan.
Both accommodationists and hardliners seem to assume that, one way or another, President Hamid Karzai will secure re-election. "The issue of credibility and the question of fraud are being used as leverage," said a Western diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity. While the soft approach relies on building a cozy relationship with the next president as the best way of leveraging influence, hardliners believe that an assertive stand against Karzai would compel him to take desired steps toward democratization.
Over the immediate term, the disarray within the international community threatens to reduce the leverage that it has in the democratization process. Some experts, meanwhile, are starting to ask: how is it that a unified contingency plan was not worked out in advance of the presidential election, if diplomats -- including the US troubleshooter for Afghanistan, Richard Holbrooke -- widely expected ballot-stuffing and other fraudulent practices to occur?
A lack of international consistency is currently undermining credibility, enabling Karzai and his supporters to portray the electoral fraud controversy to a domestic audience as a matter of foreign meddling in Afghanistan’s internal affairs. Karzai’s rhetoric is resonating widely with Afghans, as is evident from the changing focus of Afghan media outlets. Local journalists who earlier questioned the international community for its apparent endorsement of a flawed election have now moved to questioning the motives of the international community in questioning the elections. If anti-foreigner rhetoric ends up defining the credibility of the next government, it bodes ill for the government’s future partnership with the international community.
Editor's Note: Aunohita Mojumdar is an Indian freelance journalist based in Kabul. She has reported on the South Asian region for the past 19 years.
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Tremendous challenges face next Afghan president
by Yu Zhixiao
BEIJING, Sept. 18 (Xinhua) -- The new Afghan president, whomever it may finally be, will be sorely tested by a variety of daunting challenges in the coming five years, analysts say.
Those challenges will include deteriorating security and all-pervading poverty, analysts said after the release of preliminary results in the presidential election.
The results showed that sitting President Hamid Karzai collected 54.6 percent of the 5.66 million votes cast in the Aug. 20 election, the country's Independent Election Commission announced Wednesday.
However, it is too early to call the vote final. That's because the results, before becoming official, have to be ratified by the UN-backed Electoral Complaints Commission. The panel earlier ordered a recount at 2,500 of 26,300 polling stations because of accusations of massive election fraud.
RISING TALIBAN INSURGENCY
Taliban militants have shown a vehement resurgence in Afghanistan in recent years, mounting a number of attacks against foreign and government troops there.
Although U.S. President Barack Obama unveiled a new strategy for Afghanistan earlier this year and the deployment of another 21,000 U.S. soldiers, insurgency and violence in the Central Asian country has continued to increase.
Nearly 350 foreign soldiers have been killed so far this year in the war-torn country, far and away the highest number of deaths since the Taliban regime collapsed in late 2001.
On Thursday, for example, six Italian soldiers and 10 civilians were killed in a suicide car bombing in the Afghan capital Kabul.
The Afghan government led by Karzai, who shares the same Pashto ethnic origin with the Taliban, has all along extended an olive branch to the militants.
Karzai believes it would be a "Mission Impossible" to realize peace and stability in Afghanistan without reconciliation with the Taliban.
However, the militants have flatly rejected Karzai's wooing, saying they will never hold peace talks with the government unless all foreign forces are withdrawn from the country.
PREVALENT POVERTY
Local residents pinned high hopes on the U.S.-backed government just after the Afghan War toppled the Taliban's extremist rule.
However, numerous Afghans still find themselves poverty-stricken and hungry eight years after the war. That's because the alluring prospects once promised by the Afghan government and U.S. officials still seem like a castle in the air.
Ninety percent of Afghanistan's 30 million citizens are farmers or herdsmen and the annual per capita income is about 350 U.S. dollars. Over one-third of the population is unemployed and 5 million still live below the poverty line.
Massive poverty has driven many Afghans into the Taliban camp in southern and eastern Afghanistan, the militants' traditional strongholds. That's because a Taliban fighter can get a salary of about 300 dollars a month, enough to provide bread and butter for his whole family.
The Afghan government needs to root out poverty and offer jobs to the poor to keep them from siding with the Taliban.
However, the task of pulling Afghans from poverty and hunger and providing them with a better standard of living can't be done without ongoing support from the outside.
WEAK GOVERNANCE AND LIMITED RESOURCES
The Afghan government is "rife with corruption" and weak in its governing capacity, which has delayed the country's reconstruction process, many Afghans and Western officials complain.
Most rural regions in southern and eastern Afghanistan are in the hands of Taliban militants and the government can't influence, much less govern, those areas.
The Taliban has made those regions reliable bases and uses them to launch waves of attacks against foreign and government forces.
The government, which is short of funds and military equipment to fight the Taliban, heavily depends on foreign aid to carry out its mission against the militants.
The government has also made slow progress in strengthening its fledgling army due to limited military equipment and qualified trainers.
The turnout in the Aug. 20 election was 38.7 percent, a sharp drop from the 70 percent in Afghanistan's first direct presidential election in 2004. The low turnout apparently is a signal that Afghans are losing confidence and interest in their government and political affairs.
Without doubt, it will be a formidable task for the new Afghan president and his government to solve the country's many critical headaches and win back the people's confidence and trust.
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Restoring Afghanistan
Wall Street Journal BY ANN MARLOWE SEPTEMBER 17, 2009
Afghanistan is not quite ready for tourists. But when it is they will stand here, at the edge of Kabul's Old City, preparing to explore the area of a couple of square miles known as Asheqan wa Arefan. Though from a distance Asheqan wa Arefan looks downtrodden, on closer inspection it contains many lovely 18th- and 19th- century wooden houses, sensitively renovated over the last seven years by the Aga Khan Trust for Culture.
Home to about 22,000 mainly poor Afghans, the neighborhood in central Kabul, like much of the city, has ancient roots. It bears the name of two brothers whose grave dates from the ninth century. On the steep hillside above is an old Islamic period mausoleum and, higher still, the remnants of a Buddhist stupa.
"The municipality thinks it is a slum," says Jolyon Leslie, the head of the Aga Khan Trust for Culture (AKTC). In the absence of tourism in the Old City, the AKTC, a nonprofit founded by a hereditary leader of one of the largest Shia Muslim sects, is working to preserve Afghanistan's heritage for those who live among it. Afghan architects have done the design work, supervising Afghan artisans.
The AKTC is best known for its restoration of Baghe-Babur, or Babur's Gardens, now once again a popular Kabuli park with as many as 60,000 visitors monthly in the summer. This high-profile project provided one million man days of labor and trained 100 skilled workers.
But the AKTC has been working quietly south of the Kabul River on projects that few besides the residents of the neighborhood see. After the artisans finish, the houses are simply returned to their owners, with the stipulation that they take care of them. This is more radical than it sounds, for Afghanistan is a low-trust society where no one gives—or expects—something for nothing.
The AKTC has installed, for instance, five kilometers of semicovered drains to replace fetid open sewers, renovated 12 historically significant houses in full and 70 more lightly, and rehabilitated two parks. All of this has cost less than three million dollars.
A few days after the Afghan election, Mr. Leslie showed me around Asheqan wa Arefan. "This is probably the poorest area in the city, and also probably the most surveyed area," he said. The AKTC has produced an extraordinarily detailed map of the neighborhood—this in a country that hasn't had a population survey in 40 years.
Inhabited by low-grade civil servants up until the 1980s' civil war, the area is now much less prosperous. Perhaps half the residents are renters, doubling or tripling up in what used to be single-family houses. Many are new to the area, or even to Kabul.
The houses in the Old City were built of wood, the better to withstand earthquakes, such as the massive quake of 1842 that destroyed the Bala Hissar, or High Fortress, Kabul's ancient citadel. They often incorporated pieces of older buildings (I saw some Mogul marble column bases) and were "not intended to last forever," in Mr. Leslie's words.
One restored house, the Akram house, which boasts an 18th-century wing with juniper woodwork, houses sewing classes for women, sneaking in literacy training on the side. ("They won't come just for that, there has to be some immediate economic benefit," Mr. Leslie explained.) At the six-acre Bagh-e-Qazi, or Garden of the Judge, one of two parks AKTC has worked on in the Old City, AKTC removed hundreds of trucks of waste which had been dumped illegally, filled in with agricultural soil and planted trees in rows, all at a cost of about $100,000. Work has been guided by a photograph of the area in the 1980s.
The houses surrounding the park are mainly two- and three-story concrete structures from the 1950s and 1960s. "What constitutes a historic building?" Mr. Leslie continues. "It should be architecturally or socially interesting, or have the support of locals. For example, that pink-colored mosque over there. It's not very old, but for the locals, it's a monument."
Within the Old City, families take pride in their renovated dwellings. Unfortunately this doesn't extend to the littered alleyways outside. Municipal garbage pickup is only once every two weeks, and there are no municipal garbage cans on the street for trash (though where the AKTC has provided them, they are used and the street is noticeably cleaner). And there's a cultural habit of seeing the street as no one's responsibility.
The AKTC has also been active in Herat's Old City, 400 miles away. Herat has the greatest concentration of historic buildings in Afghanistan and was a popular traveler's destination along the '60s and '70s hippie trail. The AKTC has restored 13 historic houses and portions of one important site, the Gozargah Shrine, on the outskirts of the city, and the enormous 14th century Citadel, or Arg. But its civilizing mission can be fully appreciated in the group of more modest projects in the Old City, including two centuries-old underground water cisterns, a shrine dating from 846 A.D., two synagogues, a covered bazaar and several houses.
On a scorching August day, AKTC engineer Daud Sadiq and Herat project manager Habib Noori took me on a tour from the secluded Old City residential neighborhood to the public buildings they worked on. I saw how traditional Afghan architecture must have provided a cloistered but gracious way of life. Dalats, or long covered arcades, together with the tall walls of family compounds, shade parts of the street from the summer sun, much as they do in Tuscan hill towns. The Old City was degrees cooler than the concrete of the newer parts of town, and since the winding narrow streets discourage car traffic, it was quiet and free of diesel fumes. For the first time in 12 visits to Afghanistan, I saw that there might be homegrown solutions to the country's urban woes.
Ms. Marlowe writes frequently about Afghanistan. She is also the author of two memoirs including "The Book of Trouble" (Harcourt, 2006).
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Afghan Vote Uncertainty Creates Dilemma for U.S.
New York Times By MARK LANDLER and HELENE COOPER September 17, 2009
WASHINGTON - The Obama administration now fears that the Afghan election may not produce a clear winner until next spring, which officials said could throw President Obama's policies into flux by leaving Afghanistan without a credible leader for months.
The prospect of a runoff election is growing after President Hamid Karzai was awarded 54.6 percent of the votes in the much disputed presidential election last month. But even as American officials noted that the Afghan authorities had begun printing ballots for a second round of voting, these officials said they were worried that a runoff could not be held before Afghanistan's fierce winter starts in November.
Such a long delay could deepen Mr. Obama's troubles in Afghanistan, at a time of deteriorating security there and mounting skepticism in Washington about whether the United States should deploy more troops to try to stabilize the country.
For the White House, a winter of political uncertainty in Afghanistan may be the worst of all possible situations, officials and outside experts said. There is already vocal disenchantment with the war, across the country and among Democrats in Congress.
“We are well aware that we have 12 to 18 months to start to show progress,” said a senior administration official, who asked not to be identified in order to freely discuss internal policy. “The clock starts to run out after that.”
Mr. Karzai's final vote tally was significantly smaller than administration officials expected, even if he needs to clear only 50 percent to avoid a runoff. But accusations of ballot-stuffing and other fraud have led election authorities to order an examination of ballot boxes in 10 percent of polling places. If some votes are invalidated, that could push him below the 50 percent threshold.
While the United States has warned Mr. Karzai not to declare victory before the ballot investigation is complete, administration officials acknowledge that he remains the most likely winner. His main competitor, Abdullah Abdullah, a former foreign minister, finished a distant second, with 27.8 percent of the vote.
Administration officials expressed surprise that Afghan authorities were laying the groundwork for a second round of voting, even before the investigation of the first round had been finished. But the calendar works against holding a runoff before the spring. The country's brutal weather and forbidding geography would make going to the polls extremely difficult.
“There is an exquisite dilemma here,” said Bruce Riedel, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who helped develop the administration's policy. “The strategy requires an Afghan government that is credible and legitimate, both to get Afghans to support it and to get Americans and their allies to help. The strategy can't work around a South Vietnamese-style government.”
A runoff would be preferable to a discredited first-round Karzai victory, Mr. Riedel said. But if the vote is put off until next spring, he said, the administration will have to deal with an interim leadership that will be much less effective in helping with American priorities, like peeling off moderate elements of the Taliban.
“What is placed on hold is any kind of political reconciliation, of trying to split the Taliban,” he said. “It's very hard to do that because you need the Afghan government as your partner.”
The Obama administration had also planned to begin a major new anticorruption drive in Afghanistan, once the dust settled from the elections. That strategy would include assigning more civilians to the American Embassy in Kabul to work with the Afghan government on reforms of the legal system, as well as looking for ways to crack down on the drug smuggling that has fueled the resurgence of the Taliban.
None of this was going to be easy to begin with, in part because Mr. Karzai has proved resistant to Western attempts to rein in corruption. Before the election, he struck political deals with Afghans who have been accused of drug smuggling, including his running mate, Marshal Muhammad Qasim Fahim.
Administration officials had hoped that in a second term, free of worries about his political future, Mr. Karzai would be more amenable to a Western-style anticorruption campaign — or that Mr. Abdullah, if he won, would be more amenable to working with the West to crack down on drug smuggling and corruption.
“The plan was to hit the ground running right after the elections with the anticorruption work,” another senior official said. It is not clear the administration could begin such a campaign as long as the election results remain uncertain.
Western officials said the best they might hope for is some kind of political deal, under which Mr. Abdullah could end up working with Mr. Karzai in a prime minister-type role. But that, too, may be too much to hope for, given the enmity between the two men.
In the meantime, Afghanistan faces a tense wait, with the risk of an expanding Taliban insurgency that could even take aim at Mr. Karzai or Mr. Abdullah personally, Mr. Riedel said.
Elements of Mr. Obama's strategy can continue without a political resolution, he said. The Pentagon can conduct operations against the Taliban and train Afghan forces, while other parts of the Obama administration can assist economic development.
But even the basic question of whether to send more American troops has been caught up in uncertainty over the election. At a news conference on Thursday, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates noted that the administration's original timetable called for assessing the need for more troops after the election results were in. “There is no question that the nature of the election in Afghanistan has complicated the picture for us,” he said.
Still, Mr. Gates said it was proper for the president and his senior advisers to take time to absorb the recently completed assessment of the Afghanistan security situation by the senior commander there, Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal, before deciding.
“I think, there's been a lot of talk this week and the last two or three weeks about Afghanistan,” Mr. Gates said. “And frankly, from my standpoint, everybody ought to take a deep breath.”
Thom Shanker contributed reporting.
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White House Girds For Afghan Troop Debate
By Heather Maher Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty September 18, 2009
WASHINGTON -- President Barack Obama said this week that "there is no immediate decision pending" on whether he will send more combat troops to Afghanistan, but members of Congress are already staking out their positions and bracing for a contentious debate.
Obama made his comments on September 16 following a White House meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Kevin Harper, who recently announced that Canadian military forces will leave Afghanistan in two years.
The president said a review of troop levels has been planned for several months, but only now, with a fresh assessment of the situation on the ground from U.S. and NATO commander General Stanley McChrystal in hand, could the review process begin.
"There is no immediate decision pending on resources, because one of the things that I'm absolutely clear about is you have to get the strategy right and then make determinations about resources," Obama said.
"You don't make determinations about resources, and certainly you don't make determinations about sending young men and women into battle, without having absolute clarity about what the strategy is going to be."
'Broad Consultation'
Obama sought to tamp down media speculation about what his decision will be by explaining how he plans to make it. "My determination is to get this right," he said. "And that means broad consultation not only inside the U.S. government, but also with our ISAF partners and our NATO allies. And I'm going to take a very deliberate process in making those decisions. "
When Obama took office in January, he ordered an additional 17,000 troops to Afghanistan. By November, there will be 68,000 U.S. troops there.
Obama may be keeping his cards close to his chest, but earlier this week the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, gave Congress a good indication of what the U.S. military is preparing to request.
"I do not know what additional resources General McChrystal may ask for. And I do not know what ration of training to combat units he really needs. We'll get to all of that in the coming weeks," Mullen said, testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee.
"But I do believe that, having heard his views, and having great confidence in his leadership, a properly resourced counterinsurgency probably means more forces."
Democrats Against
The Senate Armed Services Committee is chaired by Carl Levin, the most powerful Democrat in Congress on military matters. Like many Congressional Democrats, Levin has come out against sending more troops to Afghanistan, saying he wants to see the United States accelerate its training of Afghan security forces.
Levin, who just returned from a trip to the war zone, wants the Afghan National Army increased to 240,000 troops and the Afghan police forces increased to 160,000 officers by 2012. Those levels are similar to current U.S. military planning, but the date is one year earlier.
Levin's equally powerful Democratic Senate colleague, Diane Feinstein, who chairs the Senate Select Intelligence Committee, has also come out against more troops, saying the mission is unclear and the United States and its NATO allies will never be able to build a democratic state in Afghanistan.
On the House side, Speaker Nancy Pelosi has warned that a request for more troops will run into stiff opposition from Democrats there and said she doesn't think there is "a great deal of support for sending more troops to Afghanistan in Congress or the rest of the country."
A CNN poll taken on September 11-13 found that opposition to the eight-year war is now at an all-time high, with 58 percent of Americans saying they oppose the U.S. military effort in Afghanistan and just 39 percent still supporting it.
That poll also found the lowest support among registered Democrats and the highest among Republicans (23 percent and 62 percent, respectively).
Opposition Backs Obama
That reflects the situation in Washington, where leading Republicans and defense hawks have spoken out in favor of the White House strategy in Afghanistan and urged Obama to ignore his critics.
Among the loudest voices are two prominent Republican senators, Obama's former presidential campaign rival John McCain of Arizona and Lindsay Graham of South Carolina.
Along with Senator Joseph Lieberman (Independent, Connecticut), the lawmakers wrote an opinion piece for the September 13 issue of "The Wall Street Journal" that said the war in Afghanistan is winnable and they are going "to stand with the president through the tough months ahead."
The piece was headlined, "Only Decisive Force Can Prevail in Afghanistan," and in it, the three senior lawmakers said success by the United States and its NATO allies would likely require "a significant increase in U.S. forces."
They wrote: "We recognize that a decision to increase the number of American troops in Afghanistan will be politically difficult here at home."
They went on to say: "More troops will not guarantee success in Afghanistan, but a failure to send them is a guarantee of failure. We have reached a seminal moment in our struggle against violent Islamist extremism, and we must commit the 'decisive force' that General McChrystal tells us carries the least risk of failure Obama was right when he said last year that, 'You don't muddle through the central front on terror.... You don't muddle through stamping out the Taliban.'"
Senator Levin plans to give his version of an opinion column on September 18, when he delivers a speech on the Senate floor explaining his reasons for opposing a troop increase.
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Suicide attack 'kills up to 14' in Pakistan market
by S.H. Khan September 18, 2009
PESHAWAR, Pakistan (AFP) – A suicide car bomb tore through a Pakistan market, killing up to 14 people and trapping others under the debris on Friday as families shopped for a major religious festival, police said.
The explosion flung body parts across the bazaar and gutted shops in Ustarzai, a mountain town in the northwest which lies between the garrison city of Kohat and Hangu, another Shiite town with a history of sectarian unrest.
There was no immediate claim for the latest attack in northwest Pakistan, which is rife with sectarian violence and Islamist militants, branded by the United States as an existential threat to the nuclear-armed country.
The area was packed with shoppers buying food and delicacies for the weekend and the Muslim Eid al-Fitr holiday, which Pakistanis expect to start on Monday with the sighting of the new moon after the fasting month of Ramadan.
Bodies lay on the road and casualties were trapped under the debris from shops that caved in after the blast when the bomber rammed a jeep packed with 150 kilos (330 pounds) of exposives into another vehicle.
Sohail Ahmad, a shopkeeper in the market whose left leg was broken in the attack, told AFP that he blacked out.
"I was standing in front of my shop when all of a sudden, a car blew up outside a restaurant. I went unconscious. I don't remember anything else. When I came round, I was in hospital," Ahmad said from his hospital bed.
Police spokesman Fazal Naeem in nearby Kohat said: "We have recovered 14 dead bodies. Many people were wounded. The bomber was sitting in a car."
But other police officials at the scene put the death toll lower.
"Seven to 10 people are confirmed dead in the jeep suicide blast, but the death toll may rise because so many people are wounded. Body parts are scattered all over the place," said Dilawar Bangash, Kohat police chief.
"Some of the bodies have been sent to hospital and some are lying on the road," Bangash told AFP by telephone from the scene of the blast.
A local Ustazai police official involved in the relief effort confirmed 10 dead and 36 wounded.
"This is a Shiite-dominated area and we cannot rule out the possibility that this was a sectarian-motivated attack," said Ali Hasan.
Witnesses at the district hospital in Kohat said most of the casualties were Shiites. Television footage showed victims being brought in covered in blood with their clothes torn apart.
"Dozens of shops were destroyed. Their roofs caved in and many people were trapped under the debris," said Hasan.
Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani condemned the "cowardly act of terrorism" and expressed grief over the loss of life, his office said in a statement.
Gilani "expressed the government's determination to stamp out the menace of terrorism and militancy from the country," it said.
In April, Pakistan launched a military offensive against the Taliban in the northwestern districts of Buner, Lower Dir and Swat after militants advanced to within 100 kilometres (60 miles) of the capital Islamabad.
The military says it has cleared the area and in the last week claimed three major arrests of wanted commanders in Swat although skirmishes have continued, raising the prospect that many militants are hiding in the mountains.
Government troops have also launched military operations against a local Taliban-linked warlord in the semi-autonomous Khyber tribal region, which lies on the main supply route for Western troops in neighbouring Afghanistan.
The United States says Islamist fighters are hiding in the Pakistani mountains near the Afghan border, plotting attacks on Western targets and crossing the porous frontier to attack foreign troops in Afghanistan.
Taliban and Al-Qaeda rebels fled Afghanistan after the 2001 US-led invasion, carving out boltholes and training camps in Pakistan's remote mountains.
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'Time against' Afghanistan forces
BBC News Friday, 18 September 2009
UK and other Nato forces in southern Afghanistan do not have time on their side, the British general soon to take charge of troops in the area has said.
Major General Nick Carter, who will take charge of 45,000 troops in six weeks, said there was an opportunity to "make a difference" in the next year.
But he said without the "luxury" of time, forces needed to show "positive trends" as quickly as possible.
"We can't be everywhere... we've... got to focus on achievable objectives."
He added: "And I think security where we know the population is living, freedom of movement on the key highways - that means the Afghan economy can start to kickstart itself, and that people can begin to take a stake in their community - is the way in which we will achieve success."
'Hotch potch'
Maj Gen Carter's comments, in an interview with BBC security correspondent Frank Gardner, come a day after the new head of the British army said defeat for allied forces in Afghanistan would have an "intoxicating impact" on extremists around the world.
Gen Sir David Richards said the failure of a coalition of such powerful western nations would show terrorists that "anything might be possible".
And current Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg and former leader Lord Ashdown have said the war cannot be won unless the international community changes its policies.
In a joint article for the Guardian newspaper on Friday, the pair accuse Nato of being "a hotch potch of the committed and the half hearted" and lacking a united strategy.
Maj Gen Carter has been running his headquarters team through final rehearsals in a high-security compound in Germany ahead of their deployment to Afghanistan.
Maj Gen Carter said: "We don't have the luxury of time, but 18 months ago there were probably 1,500 American soldiers in the south. There are now 25,000.
"And there's an awful lot more resources coming into the south as well. And with this amount of effort, I think that we do have an opportunity, during the course of the next year, to make a difference.
"But I absolutely acknowledge that time is not on our side, and we've got to show positive trends as quickly as we possibly can."
He said he was determined to seize the initiative from the Taliban and that his forces would do this by separating insurgents from the civilian population both physically and mentally.
"It's about fundamentally getting [the civilian population] to realise that the institutions that we're partnering and the... reconstruction teams... are worth supporting, rather than the insurgent," he said.
"I think that it will happen slowly, but my goodness me, there'll be a tipping point when the population will suddenly realise that it's worth being with its government institutions, rather than with the insurgent."
Talks possible
The major general's strategy will involve far closer co-operation with the Afghan security forces in a bid to raise their standards.
Maj Gen Carter admitted that roadside bombs were causing significant difficulties for Nato, but said he hoped Afghan citizens would increasingly want to tell Nato where they were hidden.
He warned that there would always be a spike in casualties before positive trends could be seen.
But, he added, the arrival in the south of more American troops would now allow Nato to hold ground and achieve progress it had been unable to make in the past.
When asked if he would talk to moderate Taleban fighters, he said "counter insurgencies are about winning an argument" and that "if we can talk to people then that may well be a quicker solution than shooting them".
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Afghanistan: No unreserved Taliban support for Peace Day
KABUL, 18 September 2009 (IRIN) - Taliban insurgents have called the UN-initiated International Peace Day, 21 September, "a futile showy day" but said their fighters will be in a defensive position on the day.
The UN and aid agencies have called on all warring parties in Afghanistan to respect a day of tranquillity on 21 September, which is also Eid-ul-Fitr, and allow aid workers to deliver essential supplies in insecure parts of the country.
"Stop the fighting on 21 September and demonstrate that there is a readiness from all of us to move into a peace process," said Kai Eide, the UN special representative in Afghanistan.
"We Afghans, more than any other nation in the world, realize the value of peace. I order every member of the Afghan armed forces not to resort to force on this day, except when attacked," said a statement issued by President Hamid Karzai's office on 16 September.
However, the insurgents have not unreservedly supported a day of ceasefire.
"The government and the UN only make futile statements. We did not start this war; it was imposed on us," Qari Yusuf Ahmadi, a purported Taliban spokesman, told IRIN on the phone from an unidentified location. "Our forces will remain in defensive position, as usual."
The UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) said the Peace Day was more than mere symbolism, and reflected an overwhelming demand among Afghans for peace.
"Afghan people cannot afford this any more. We need peace now. We need to bring this terrible conflict to an end," said Eide.
Established by a UN resolution in 1982, Peace Day has been marked across the world as a day free of violence and gunfire.
Suicide attackers
Attacks have continued in the run-up to Peace Day. The insurgents reportedly claimed responsibility for a spectacular suicide attack on a convoy of Italian forces in Kabul on 17 September, killing and wounding several people.
"We cannot control and stop our martyr [suicide] attackers," said Taliban spokesman Ahmadi, implying there could be more suicide attacks in the coming days.
Insurgent tactics - particularly the use of suicide attacks and improvised explosive devices - have caused considerable and increasing civilian casualties, according to UNAMA and other experts.
Armed violence has increased significantly across Afghanistan over the past few years and insurgent groups have established a presence in large swathes of the country, the International Council on Security and Development said in a report on 10 September.
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Berlusconi Says Italy to Withdraw 500 Afghanistan Troops Soon
Bloomberg By Steve Scherer Sept. 18, 2009
Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said that he plans to bring home at least 500 of the country's 3,000 troops deployed in Afghanistan “in the next few weeks” after six were killed in a suicide bombing in Kabul yesterday.
The Italian soldiers and nine Afghan civilians were killed when a car bomb exploded near a military convoy in central Kabul, the Defense Ministry said. Four Italian soldiers were seriously injured. Italy had increased its troop level by 500 before Afghanistan's August national election.
About 500 troops “we can withdraw in the next few weeks” in agreement with NATO allies, Berlusconi told reporters after a European Union summit in Brussels late yesterday. Rather than an exit strategy, allies are discussing a “transition strategy,” he said.
Berlusconi said that Italy would make no unilateral decisions and that North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies would decide all troop-level decisions together.
“We cannot, after all we've done and all the human sacrifice, abandon this effort following traumatic events,” he said.
Yesterday's attack against Italy's forces in the country - - the worst ever -- prompted Berlusconi's key ally, Northern League leader Umberto Bossi, to say troops should be brought home “by Christmas.” The attack came as President Barack Obama mulls whether to boost the number of U.S. troops in Afghanistan to quell rising violence and reverse gains by the Taliban.
Train Afghan Police
“I spoke with Obama at the G-8” in July, Berlusconi said before the EU summit. “We're preparing a plan that can train local Afghan law enforcement more quickly and efficiently.”
Yesterday's blast brings to 20 the number of Italian soldiers who have died in Afghanistan since Italy's troops arrived in 2004. Italy's 3,000 soldiers in Afghanistan comprise the fifth largest NATO contingent after the U.S., Britain, Germany and France.
A white Toyota filled with an estimated 150 kilos of explosives detonated near the Italian convoy and the blast was most likely caused by a suicide bomber, the Defense Ministry said.
To contact the reporters on this story: Steve Scherer in Brussels at sscherer@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: September 17, 2009
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Eradicating polio in Afghanistan takes persuasion, participation and peace
Source: United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) by Cornelia Walther
GHOR, Afghanistan, 17 September 2009 – A three-day polio eradication campaign, organized by the World Health Organization and UNICEF, reached children across Afghanistan this month. The immunization drive was part of the ongoing effort to eradicate polio in Afghanistan, which is one of just four remaining polio-endemic countries.
Polio eradication is a global priority, and its eradication demands a 'Three P' approach: persuasion, participation and peace.
This particular campaign, which was organized in tandem with the countdown of UN Peace Day 2009, targeted 1.2 million children under age five in conflict-affected districts. More than 15,000 health workers went door-to-door in eight provinces: Ghor, Farah, Uruzgan, Helmand, Kandahar, Khost, Kunar and Nangarhar.
A mobile approach to participation
"I have six children. All of them have been vaccinated today," said Fatima Farzad after a visit from health workers.
Many Afghan families, like Ms. Farzad's, are unable to reach health facilities. They face various obstacles – including lack of financial means, long distances to travel to health centres, or fear of attacks. That's why a mobile approach is essential to ensure that every child in the target group is reached.
"My people do not have an incurable disease," the Governor of Ghor, Sayed Mohammad Eqbal Munib, told a visitor. "They are jobless, poor and afraid [but] the attention of the government and donors can heal them. We are very grateful for the efforts that UNICEF and WHO have made in our region. Yet I ask you to carry my message with you: So much remains to be done."
To date, some 156,000 children under the age of five have been reached by immunization efforts in Ghor province.
Persuading parents to be responsible
Circulation of the wild poliovirus continues in Afghanistan, though it is limited to a few districts. A solid decrease in polio cases had previously been achieved – with 17 confirmed cases in 2007, down from 31 cases in 2006 and 63 in 1999.
This containment of the virus and the prevention of its spread were possible due to the continued collaboration of the Afghan Ministry of Public Health with the Global Polio Eradication Initiative partners, including UNICEF, WHO, Rotary International and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Since 2008, however, the number of armed attacks in Afghanistan has increased, creating an environment of fear and limiting access for vaccination teams in conflict-affected areas. Against this backdrop, the number of polio cases has climbed back up; 20 cases have been reported so far in 2009.
Parental and community awareness and involvement are essential to reversing this trend.
"Polio is an issue of common interest," said WHO Representative in Afghanistan Peter Graaff. "I appeal to the local leaders of Ghor to persuade all parents in their area to bring their children for the vaccination. Every member of the community must participate in this endeavour. We have a responsibility towards the children in Ghor, in Afghanistan and the whole world to eradicate polio."
'Peace is necessary'
Overall, four nationwide house-to-house vaccination campaigns have reached almost 7.5 million children through August 2009. In parallel, routine immunization is ongoing in health facilities across the country to prevent the virus from spreading.
Still, roughly 100,000 Afghan children cannot be reached with vaccinations due to security concerns.
"Peace is necessary to access all children and vaccinate them against polio," said UNICEF Representative in Afghanistan Catherine Mbengue. "It takes just a few seconds to immunize a child – but the results last for a lifetime."
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Will Japan's new leaders continue to support US in Afghanistan?
Japanese Foreign Minister Okada said that Japan should focus on assistance to both Afghanistan and Pakistan. The government has not been clear on whether it will continue its refueling mission.
The Christian Science Monitor By Takehiko Kambayashi September 17, 2009
Tokyo - Soon after Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama's cabinet members were inaugurated Wednesday, Japan's new foreign minister Katsuya Okada underscored his country's commitment to the international community.
In his first official pronouncements, Mr. Okada said that the government should focus in its first 100 days on assistance to Pakistan and Afghanistan.
A key question surrounding the DPJ has been its commitment to Japanese logistical support for US operations in Afghanistan, such as its refueling mission in the Indian Ocean.
The new foreign minister said Japan would not "simply" extend that naval mission. Many analysts have suggested that Japan will pull back from the mission early next year.
But Okada added that Japan should make its mark in terms of helping to stabilize the region. DPJ advisers have said that such help could take the form of medical and development aid.
"Under Mr. Okada's leadership, Japan will first promote humanitarian and reconstruction assistance in Afghanistan," says Toshiyuki Shikata, a law professor at Teikyo University and former lieutenant general with the Self-Defense Forces (SDF). "Then, the new government is likely to dispatch SDF troops to a relatively safe area in the country as a noncombat mission," says Mr. Shikata.
Such gestures would sustain the approach of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party, whose leaders have in recent years promoted greater Japanese engagement abroad. In addition to its support efforts in the Afghanistan war, Japan had 600 noncombat troops in Iraq for two years.
An expanded support role in Afghanistan could generate stiff opposition from many Japanese, as critics oppose the military involvement as a violation of the nation's war-renouncing Constitution.
But if Japan's Self-Defense Forces were to send troops to Afghanistan, they would operate under UN auspices, something that is more palatable to the Japanese public, says Shikata, adding that "I believe Mr. Okada's active diplomacy will also convince more people."
A year ago, then-Defense Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi also suggested it was time to pay more attention to Afghanistan. At the time, the DPJ was not necessarily averse to such an idea; then-party leader Ichiro Ozawa had already floated the idea that Japan should send SDF troops to the country.
Okada also said the Foreign Ministry should work on issues of the US military presence on the southern island of Okinawa and of global warming.
In a 2001 interview with the Monitor, Okada reiterated that if the DPJ-led government took power, it "would make its own decision, whatever the United States or other countries say. We would present our views and make our point."
Some DPJ leaders have close ties with their counterparts in other Asian countries, and the new government is welcomed by Japan's neighboring countries.
"This time, I don't think we will have to worry about issues regarding the interpretation of the history of Japan's relations with Asia," says Zhu Jianrong, a professor of international relations at Toyo Gakuen University in Nagareyama, east of Tokyo. Japan has frequently been at odds with both China and Korea over interpretations of Japan's representation of its actions World War II. "We can expect the new government to build amicable relations with other Asian countries."
South Korean President Lee Myung-bak told Korean and Japanese media he hoped the relationship between Seoul and Tokyo will be rapidly and permanently improved under the DPJ-led government.
The bilateral relationship "has steadily developed over the years, and there is hope it will develop to a higher level at which they completely trust each other," Mr. Lee said.
But Mr. Zhu says that while he does not expect drastic changes in Japan's relations with the US, in the long run, the country is likely to take a more independent course, as DPJ leader have said.
Prime Minister Hatoyama has said he wants to put the US-Japan alliance "on equal footing."
He also spoke with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on Thursday, vowing to continue a high-level dialogue. Russia and Japan have yet to formally conclude a peace treaty from World War II because of a territorial dispute over what Japan calls the Northern Territories and Russia refers to as the Southern Kurils. Russia controls the Pacific islands, which stretch between Japan's northern island of Hokkaido and Russia's Kamchatka Peninsula.
Mr. Hatoyama is expected to meet US President Barack Obama, Chinese leader Hu Jintao, and other leaders at the UN General Assembly and the Group of 20 summit meeting in Pittsburgh next week.
"At first, it is important to forge a trusting relationship with President Obama," says the prime minister.
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