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Afghanistan to hold election run-off Nov 7
by Lynne O'donnell
KABUL (AFP) – Afghanistan will hold a second round of its presidential election on November 7 after incumbent Hamid Karzai failed to win a clear majority in the fraud-tainted contest, officials said Tuesday.
Afghanistan's Karzai agrees to election run-off
By Jonathon Burch
KABUL (Reuters) – President Hamid Karzai agreed to face a second round of voting in Afghanistan's disputed election on Tuesday after a U.N.-led fraud inquiry tossed out enough of his votes to trigger a run-off.
Q&A: Afghan election
Tuesday, 20 October 2009 BBC News
Afghanistan's election has been mired in controversy since voters went to the polls on 20 August.
UN chief calls Afghan runoff 'huge challenge'
By John Heilprin, Associated Press Writer – Tue Oct 20, 10:04 am ET
UNITED NATIONS – The U.N. chief calls a second round of Afghan elections a "huge challenge" while commending Afghan President Hamid Karzai for endorsing a runoff next month.
Obama welcomes Afghan second round vote
Tue Oct 20, 9:33 am ET
WASHINGTON (AFP) – US President Barack Obama on Tuesday welcomed President Hamid Karzai's agreement to hold a second round of voting in Afghanistan's disputed election as an important precedent for Afghan democracy.
Runoff may delay decision to send more U.S. troops to Afghanistan
By Abdul Hadi Mayar
KABUL, Oct. 20 (Xinhua) -- Although lowering of President Hamid Karzai's victory margin in the Aug. 20 presidential election has entailed a runoff poll, yet any such development is bound to put the possible decision on sending
World reacts to Afghan run-off
Tuesday, 20 October 2009 17:18 UK BBC News
The Afghan President Hamid Karzai has accepted the need for a second round in the nation's presidential election, following widespread fraud in the first.
Abdullah ready for runoff with Afghan President Karzai
KABUL, Afghanistan (CNN) -- Afghan President Hamid Karzai's primary challenger said Monday he is prepared to participate in a runoff vote after a report concluded that Karzai did not win a majority, but he also is willing to consider alternatives.
Obama not yet sure of Afghanistan troop decision timing
Tue Oct 20, 10:30 am ET
WASHINGTON (AFP) – President Barack Obama has not yet determined whether he will make a decision on sending more troops to Afghanistan before the November 7 election runoff, a US official said Tuesday.
Troops sweep out militants in N Afghan province
KABUL, Oct. 20 (Xinhua) -- Afghan and the NATO-led forces have launched operation against Taliban militants in the northern Baghlan province to strengthen government control, a press release of Defense Ministry said Tuesday.
For whom the Afghan poll tolls
By Aunohita Mojumdar Asia Times Online Oct 21, 2009
KABUL - Whatever the August 2009 elections in Afghanistan were to begin with, they have, in the weeks since the polling day, turned into a completely different beast.
Afghanistan election runoff poses daunting challenges
A second round of voting in the Afghanistan election, set for Nov. 7, adds security and logistical difficulties to a process already marred by fraud.
By Ben Arnoldy | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor from the October 20, 2009 edition
Kabul, Afghanistan - Flanked by a slew of international statesmen Tuesday, President Hamid Karzai put a second round Afghan election on the calendar, adding daunting new security and logistical pressures to an already deeply troubled election effort.
U.S. decision can't wait for Afghan legitimacy: Gates
By Phil Stewart – Tue Oct 20, 12:21 am ET
ABOARD A U.S. MILITARY AIRCRAFT (Reuters) – The United States cannot wait for problems surrounding the legitimacy of the Afghan government to be resolved before making a decision on troops, U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said.
US troop move may come without Afghan 'legitimacy': Gates
Mon Oct 19, 10:29 pm ET
ABOARD A US MILITARY AIRCRAFT (AFP) – President Barack Obama may have to make a decision on whether to send more US troops to Afghanistan even if the "legitimacy" of the Afghan government remains in doubt, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Tuesday.
The Soviets in Afghanistan: Obama's Déjà Vu?
By Mark Thompson / Washington Monday, Oct. 19, 2009 time.com
"It's a tricky situation," said the decision maker huddled with his inner circle, debating what to do next in Afghanistan. "We went in, but how to get out — our head[s] are splitting from this. Of course we can just pull
12 militants killed in NW Pakistan tribal area operation
ISLAMABAD, Oct. 20 (Xinhua) -- At least 12 militants were killed and four soldiers lost their lives during ongoing military operation in northwest Pakistan's South Waziristan tribal area in the last 24 hours, an army statement said Tuesday.
S Korea considering to make more contributions in Afghanistan: official
SEOUL, Oct. 20 (Xinhua) -- A senior South Korean official on Tuesday said his government is considering of making more contributions in Afghanistan, according to South Korea's Yonhap New Agency.
Afghanistan: Virtually no safety net for war victims' families
KABUL, 20 October 2009 (IRIN) - Ahmad Wali died in a bomb blast in Kandahar city on 25 August and Samim was killed in a suicide attack in Kabul on 15 September. Both men left grieving families with little capacity to cope on their own.
Afghan governors call for peace jirga
Oct. 20, 2009 at 1:08 PM
Order reprintsJALALABAD, Afghanistan, Oct. 20 (UPI) -- The governors from three Afghan provinces announced Tuesday there were forming a tribal council to work toward peace, reconciliation and development.
U.S. defense secretary in Japan with Afghanistan, SOFA on agenda
www.chinaview.cn 2009-10-20 15:33:32
TOKYO, Oct. 20 (Xinhua) -- U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates arrived in Tokyo on Tuesday for talks with the new Democratic Party of Japan government, with the realignment of U.S. forces in the country and Afghanistan likely to be high on the agenda.
US thumbs-up for Indian work in Afghanistan
Chidanand Rajghatta, TNN 20 October 2009, 06:56pm IST Times of India
WASHINGTON: The Obama administration has given a thumbs-up to India's developmental work in Afghanistan, rejecting Islamabad’s complaints that New Delhi's activities there are detrimental to Pakistan’s security.
Battle intensifies as Taliban retake Pakistani town
By Kamran Haider – Tue Oct 20, 11:26 am ET
DERA ISMAIL KHAN, Pakistan (Reuters) – Taliban militants attacked Pakistani forces and recaptured a strategic town on Tuesday while two suicide bomb blasts at an Islamic university in the capital killed six people and wounded at least 20, officials said.
France, UK to fly Afghan migrants to Kabul
Reuters via Yahoo! UK & Ireland News
France and Britain plan to deport 16 illegal Afghan migrants in a joint flight late on Tuesday, a police source said, part of a crackdown that has met with an outcry from human rights groups. Skip related content
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Afghanistan to hold election run-off Nov 7
by Lynne O'donnell
KABUL (AFP) – Afghanistan will hold a second round of its presidential election on November 7 after incumbent Hamid Karzai failed to win a clear majority in the fraud-tainted contest, officials said Tuesday.
Exactly two months after polls that Karzai had been expected to win easily, the election commission confirmed he fell fractionally short of the 50 percent needed to avoid a run-off against main rival Abdullah Abdullah.
Led by the United States, Afghanistan's foreign allies welcomed the move as an opportunity to lift the country out of political chaos and help stabilise a nation blighted by an escalating Taliban insurgency.
"The election has gone to a second round. On November 7 it will be re-held," said Noor Mohammad Noor, spokesman for the commission. Profile: Hamid Karzai
Karzai confirmed at a news conference that he would take part in the second round, calling it a "step forward for democracy".
He spoke alongside UN envoy Kai Eide and US Senator John Kerry, whose presence underscored intensive Western lobbying of Karzai to resolve the weeks of political paralysis.
Karzai also urged the international community to help ensure the second round can pass off peacefully, with 100,000 US and NATO troops fighting record levels of Taliban violence, eight years after their regime was toppled.
"People need to cast their votes free of any security threats so that by the power of their ballots and votes they can build this country," he said.
US President Barack Obama welcomed Karzai's agreement to a second round as an important precedent for Afghan democracy. Profile: Abdullah Abdullah
"I had the opportunity to speak with President Karzai this morning," Obama told reporters, adding: "I wanted to congratulate him on accepting the certification of the recent election."
But UN chief Ban Ki-moon struck a note of caution, saying holding the run-off presented "huge challenges".
The announcement came a day after an inquiry by a UN-backed watchdog confirmed staggering levels of fraud in the August 20 vote, declaring more than one million ballots suspect -- a quarter of the total cast.
An election official confirmed that from a preliminary tally of 55 percent, Karzai's share of the first-round vote had fallen to 49.67 percent.
Karzai initially dismissed allegations of widespread fraud as fabricated, convinced he had a clear victory, but international pressure has been mounting.
NATO and the European Union welcomed the run-off, with the EU's top diplomat Javier Solana calling for a "credible and legitimate" second round. Related article: US may send troops despite vote debacle
"President Karzai has today made clear that due constitutional process must be followed," said British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, praising Karzai's "statesman-like" behaviour -- a phrase echoed by French leader Nicolas Sarkozy.
US Senator Kerry, standing shoulder-to-shoulder with Karzai, hailed the second election as a great opportunity for the country, which the United States has worked to put on a course to democracy since the Taliban overthrow.
Afghanistan has to hold a second round rapidly, before harsh winter sets in making much of the country inaccessible. But observers predicted weak turnout following a first round with a participation rate of only 38.7 percent.
The announcement seemed to nix suggestions that Karzai could join forces with Abdullah, his former foreign minister, in a government of national unity.
Abdullah welcomed the second round, for which he has long agitated.
"Both Dr Abdullah and Hamid Karzai have insisted a second-round election take place," said his spokesman Sayed Fazil Aqa Sancharki.
Abdullah's final percentage will be announced on Wednesday but a US-based monitor has predicted his share will rise from the 28 percent he received in preliminary results to nearly 32 percent.
There have been growing signs US patience with Karzai is wearing thin, as Obama wrestles with a decision on whether to deploy thousands more troops to Afghanistan.
Kerry, the powerful chairman of the Senate's foreign relations committee, has said it would be "entirely irresponsible" for Obama to commit more troops when the identity of the next Afghan government is still unclear.
A White House spokesman said that Obama had yet to determine whether to make a decision on troop reinforcements before the run-off.
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Afghanistan's Karzai agrees to election run-off
By Jonathon Burch
KABUL (Reuters) – President Hamid Karzai agreed to face a second round of voting in Afghanistan's disputed election on Tuesday after a U.N.-led fraud inquiry tossed out enough of his votes to trigger a run-off.
The dispute around the August 20 vote has stoked tension between Karzai and the West and complicated U.S. President Barack Obama's decision on whether to send thousands more U.S. troops to Afghanistan to fight a resurgent Taliban.
Obama, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon all welcomed Karzai's decision to accept the run-off.
"It is now vital that all elements of Afghan society continue to come together to advance democracy, peace and justice," Obama said in a statement.
"We look forward to a second round of voting, and the completion of the process to choose the president of Afghanistan.
The White House said the president had taken no decision on whether to wait for the new poll before announcing a new strategy for Afghanistan. A decision would be taken "in the coming weeks."
The November 7 election will pit Karzai once again against his main election rival, former foreign minister Abdullah Abdullah.
After hours of closed-door talks with Western diplomats, Karzai appeared tense as he welcomed the ruling by the Afghan Independent Election Commission (IEC). The ruling cut his tally to 49.7 percent from the preliminary first-round result of 54.6 percent -- below the 50 percent needed for an outright win.
"We believe that this decision of the IEC is legitimate, legal and constitutional and that it strengthens the path toward democracy," said Karzai, U.S. Senator John Kerry by his side and U.N. Afghanistan envoy Kai Eide standing between them.
The IEC made its ruling after a separate U.N.-backed fraud panel invalidated tens of thousands of votes for Karzai this week. Karzai had earlier said the extent of fraud was exaggerated and expressed confidence in his first-round victory.
Abdullah's camp said they were prepared for the run-off.
"We had hoped the president would accept the second round," said his spokesman, Fazel Sangcharaki.
MOUNTING CASUALTIES
Karzai, who is a Pashtun, Afghanistan's largest ethnic group, is almost certain to win the run-off but the level of mass fraud alleged in the first round will inevitably cast a shadow over the new vote.
Security issues are also of concern at a time when the insurgency is at its strongest and winter approaches.
"The Taliban no doubt will try their best to disrupt it," said Waheed Mozhdah, an Afghan analyst. "It (run-off) will be difficult if our intention is for a better and transparent election compared to the first round."
Kerry said holding the second round would be tough in the present environment. But the West, he said, was committed to assisting Afghanistan.
"We know it will be difficult and require sacrifice," he said. "But we are committed to this effort.
The uncertainty, however, has added to pressure on Washington and Afghanistan's other allies, Britain in particular, which face mounting casualties as violence this year reached its worst levels since the Taliban were overthrown in 2001.
In Washington, White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said it was not certain Obama would announce a new strategy before the run-off.
"Whether or not the president makes a decision before that I don't think has been determined," he told reporters. "I continue to say that the decision will be made in the coming weeks as the president goes through an examination of our policy."
Earlier, U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said the United States could not wait for problems surrounding the Afghan government's legitimacy to be resolved before making a decision on whether to send more troops.
(Additional reporting by Golnar Motevalli, Maria Golovnina and Sayed Salahuddin in KABUL, Ross Colvin in WASHINGTON, and Louis Charbonneau at the UNITED NATIONS; Writing by Golnar Motevalli and Maria Golovnina)
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Q&A: Afghan election
Tuesday, 20 October 2009 BBC News
Afghanistan's election has been mired in controversy since voters went to the polls on 20 August.
An investigation by the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) uncovered widespread fraud and led to President Hamid Karzai being stripped of the outright win he appeared to have secured after the first round.
A second round will now be held on 7 November, the Independent Election Commission has announced.
Who will take part in the run-off?
The incumbent, President Hamid Karzai, will face his nearest challenger, former foreign minister Abdullah Abdullah.
Following the fraud probe, Mr Karzai saw his share of the vote drop to 49.67% - below the crucial 50% threshold needed to avoid a second round.
Dr Abdullah was adjudged in the end to have won about 31% of valid votes cast.
Mr Karzai represents Afghanistan's majority Pashtun community and remains the favourite, observers say.
Dr Abdullah is a Tajik-Pashtun but lacks his own power base within the Northern Alliance which dominated the government formed after the ousting of the Taliban in 2001.
Will a second round make any difference?
Correspondents say there is no guarantee that a run-off will be any cleaner than the tainted first round.
Officials had months to prepare for the August ballot - and a matter of weeks for the November one. The same problems with logistics and security remain, if not more so.
But the UN and Western governments have applied massive pressure in recent weeks to ensure the electoral process is respected.
Under electoral law a second round has to be held within two weeks - the run-off date nearly meets this deadline.
Observers have said it would be difficult to hold a vote much after the end of October because of severe winter weather.
Delaying until the spring would have left Afghanistan with a potentially destabilising power vacuum at a time when Nato is deciding whether to send more troops to fight the Taliban
How has the row affected Western policy?
The stalled results of Afghanistan's elections have led to paralysis within the international community over key decision-making about Afghanistan.
Afghanistan is a major strand of US President Barack Obama's foreign policy. But the White House has said that it will not take a decision on whether or not to send more troops to Afghanistan until a new government has been formed.
The delay comes at a time when Nato and US commanders have warned that the next six to 12 months will be critical in determining whether the mission in Afghanistan succeeds or fails.
Media reports in the days leading up to the announcement of a run-off said diplomats were working to persuade Hamid Karzai to accept the findings of the fraud probe or reach some sort of compromise with his rival.
How bad was the fraud?
After receiving more than 2,000 complaints of fraud and intimidation, the Electoral Complaints Commission "quarantined" results from 600 stations where there were suspected irregularities.
On 10 September it announced for the first time it was invalidating some ballots.
The ECC then ordered an audit and recount of stations where turnout was at or above 100% or where one candidate won more than 95% of the vote.
On 19 October the panel ordered that ballots from 210 polling stations be discounted.
Election officials say that Karzai's vote share dropped to 49.67%.
Some 1.3 million votes for Mr Karzai were invalid, about a quarter of the total cast, the group added.
Correspondents say before the announcement of a second round, the Afghan leader believed victory had been stolen from him. His opponent said the fraud was "state-engineered".
Mr Karzai, who has seen his popularity eroded by failing to tackle corruption and the drugs trade, risked being seen as illegitimate if he did not accept the findings of the fraud investigation.
How did the first round go?
On election day turnout was patchy and there were many incidents of violence across the country - but no major disruptions. The Taliban opposed the vote and called for a boycott.
The Nato-led International Security Assistance Force said there were more than 400 insurgent attacks that day, which would make it one of the most violent days in Afghanistan since 2001.
Election officials have estimated turnout at 40-50%. This would be significantly less than the 70% who voted in the first presidential election in 2004.
Final results were due on 12 September but delayed pending the fraud investigations.
Who were the main candidates?
Mr Karzai led preliminary results after the first round with about 55% of the vote, well ahead of Dr Abdullah, who had 28%.
The results were never ratified because of the fraud investigation.
The two closest challengers after that were outspoken parliamentarian Ramazan Bashardost and former World Bank official, Ashraf Ghani.
A large number of relatively unknown presidential hopefuls, ranging from pro-Taliban and pro-jihadi figures to former communists, stood for election. Two women also stood.
How does the election system work?
The president of Afghanistan is elected for a five-year term and can serve a maximum of two terms.
In order to win the election, a presidential candidate must receive more than 50% of the votes cast.
If no-one receives this, a runoff should be held within two weeks of the announcement of the results.
Presidential candidates must hold Afghan citizenship and be born of Afghan parents. They are not allowed to hold any other nationality. They must also be Muslims and be at least 40 years old.
What about the voters?
There are 17 million out of an estimated 30 million Afghans registered to vote. The minimum voting age is 18.
Afghan refugees in Pakistan and Iran did not take part in the election.
There were approximately 7,000 polling centres and more than 25,000 polling stations across Afghanistan, with separate areas for men and women.
The logistics of setting up polling stations in a country with poor security, rugged terrain and a lack of infrastructure prompted a senior UN official to describe the poll as the most complicated election he has seen.
Almost all the problem centres are in the country's ethnic Pashtun areas, where the insurgency is at its strongest. In many of those areas, it was too dangerous to send monitors to oversee the vote.
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UN chief calls Afghan runoff 'huge challenge'
By John Heilprin, Associated Press Writer – Tue Oct 20, 10:04 am ET
UNITED NATIONS – The U.N. chief calls a second round of Afghan elections a "huge challenge" while commending Afghan President Hamid Karzai for endorsing a runoff next month.
Ban Ki-moon said Tuesday that Karzai's endorsement and his acceptance of a fraud panel's finding show his "full respect" for Afghanistan's constitutional and democratic processes.
The U.N. secretary-general also praised Karzai rival Abdullah Abdullah for taking a "dignified approach" to the crisis.
Ban promised more U.N. technical help for the election. He spoke after Afghanistan's election commission ordered a runoff election for Nov. 7 because no candidate got more than 50 percent of the vote.
A fraud investigation dropped Karzai's votes below 50 percent of the total.
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Obama welcomes Afghan second round vote
Tue Oct 20, 9:33 am ET
WASHINGTON (AFP) – US President Barack Obama on Tuesday welcomed President Hamid Karzai's agreement to hold a second round of voting in Afghanistan's disputed election as an important precedent for Afghan democracy.
"I welcome President Karzai's statement today accepting the Independent Electoral Commission's certification of the August 20 election results, and agreeing to participate in a second round of the election," Obama said.
"This is an important step forward in ensuring a credible process for the Afghan people which results in a government that reflects their will," Obama said in a written statement.
The United States and its allies had been imposing intense pressure on Karzai to agree to a second election, or to frame a national unity government, after massive fraud tainted the first round of voting.
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Runoff may delay decision to send more U.S. troops to Afghanistan
By Abdul Hadi Mayar
KABUL, Oct. 20 (Xinhua) -- Although lowering of President Hamid Karzai's victory margin in the Aug. 20 presidential election has entailed a runoff poll, yet any such development is bound to put the possible decision on sending US reinforcement to Afghanistan in doldrums.
The UN-backed Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) on Monday announced its finding on suspicious ballot boxes and ordered the election body to void 210 polling stations which according to Karzai's opponents has lowered his victory margin to 48 percent from the previous 54.6 percent.
The findings, if accepted by the Independent Election Commission (IEC), are liable to set the stage for a runoff between Karzai and his top challenger, Dr. Abdullah Abdullah.
According to the preliminary result announced on Sept. 16, Karzai had won 54.6 percent of the total vote cast while Abdullah had secured only 28 percent.
That tally was enough to save the incumbent president from a runoff, which, under the Afghan constitution, the two top candidates are to fight in case no one bags more than 50 percent ballot.
However, the final result was withheld as the ECC had to scrutinize votes in 3,063 ballot boxes, which it had found suspected after receiving complaints of massive rigging and fraud in the election.
Besides negatively affecting state functioning in Afghanistan, the protracted process of scrutinizing ballot and announcing result has also become a stumbling block in the U.S. decision to send more troops to Afghanistan.
U.S.- NATO commander in Afghanistan, General Stanley McChrystal, has, in his report presented to the Pentagon, called for sending additional 40,000 troops to the country to counter the growing threat posed by Taliban and al-Qaida.
John Kerry, chairman of U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, warned the other day that it would be irresponsible to send more U.S. troops to Afghanistan at this time, amid a deepening election crisis that has placed the Kabul government's legitimacy at stake.
He told CNN that Washington should not precede with a new Afghanistan strategy committing a potentially major increase in U.S. resources, including tens of thousands more troops, without first securing a clear partner in Kabul.
French foreign minister Bernard Kouchner also visited Kabul on Saturday trying to agree Karzai and Abdullah to a runoff or to form a power-sharing government, as media reported.
After meeting the two separately, Kouchner said both the Afghan leaders agreed to work together.
BBC quoted him as saying that "fraud and rigging have taken place in the elections and national and international observers have expressed their observations in this regard."
Kouchner said that one cannot close his eyes to it.
Reports say that other world leaders, including U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, have also established telephone contacts with Karzai over the last several days urging him to agree to a runoff.
While the United States itself is yet to make any decision on sending more troops to Afghanistan, it is urging its allies to reinvigorate their commitment to the Afghan war.
U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates embarks upon a visit to Japan and Slovakia this week to enlist their enhanced support in Afghanistan.
Pentagon Press Secretary Geoff Morrell says serious issues will be discussed related to the new Japanese government's decision to end a refuelling mission for alliance ships supplying the international effort in Afghanistan and its concerns about plans to relocate some U.S. forces in Japan.
The new government in Tokyo told the United States earlier this month that it will end a naval refuelling mission backing its war in Afghanistan, a month before President Barack Obama visits Tokyo.
Japan's Parliamentary Defense Secretary Akihisa Nagashima, the third-ranking defense official, told the White House and Pentagon last week that the mission would not be renewed when its legal mandate expires in January.
These developments clearly show that any revamp of the U.S. Afghan policy and sending of more American forces to the insurgency-ravaged country is not possible at least in the near future.
This scenario is likely to put the Afghan government and international forces in more trouble as Taliban and al-Qaida fighters are strengthening with the passage of every day.
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World reacts to Afghan run-off
Tuesday, 20 October 2009 17:18 UK BBC News
The Afghan President Hamid Karzai has accepted the need for a second round in the nation's presidential election, following widespread fraud in the first.
The run-off is scheduled to take place on 7 November when Mr Karzai will face the former foreign minister, Abdullah Abdullah.
Political leaders from around the world have been reacting to the news:
BAN KI-MOON, UN SECRETARY GENERAL
I commend President Karzai for the leadership he has displayed and for his commitment to ensuring full respect for Afghanistan's constitution and its democratic processes.
You can understand there is a huge challenge in conducting a second election.
We will try to ensure that all Afghan people should be able to express their own will freely without intimidation or threat.
We will do our best... to make these elections fair and free of fraud.
BARACK OBAMA, US PRESIDENT
President Karzai's constructive actions established an important precedent for Afghanistan's new democracy.
The Afghan constitution and laws are strengthened by President Karzai's decision, which is in the best interests of the Afghan people.
It is now vital that all elements of Afghan society continue to come together to advance democracy, peace and justice.
We look forward to a second round of voting, and the completion of the process to choose the president of Afghanistan.
GORDON BROWN, BRITISH PRIME MINISTER
It's absolutely vital that Afghanistan has a legitimate government, one that has the support of the people, clearly seen to have the support of the people.
And therefore this announcement today - that has been made in a statesmanlike way by President Karzai - is absolutely vital to the future of Afghanistan.
There had been doubts about a number of the votes, there has been fraud in the election, there have been questions asked about the legitimacy of some of the processes.
It is right that these are dealt with in a way that leads to confidence that Afghans' insipient democracy, its democracy can be strengthened for the future.
NICOLAS SARKOZY, FRENCH PRESIDENT
President Karzai's statement shows to all that he is a statesman who can decide on what is essential, in the higher interests of his country and of the unity of the Afghan people...
After long weeks of examining the results, these were announced at the end of a process that does honour to Afghanistan.
France will remain by the side of the Afghan people and its future government.
JAVIER SOLANA, EU HIGH REPRESENTATIVE FOR FOREIGN POLICY
I welcome the announcement... today and the statement of President Karzai accepting a second round of elections.
I urge all parties with a stake in the elections to do their utmost to ensure that the turnout of the second round provides for a credible and secure process.
It should lead to a credible and legitimate result.
JOHN KERRY, CHAIR OF THE US SENATE FOREIGN RELATIONS COMMITTE
There has been no clear resolution to the election. Leaving many Afghans with legitimate concerns and fears about the future.
President Karzai himself had serious questions about the process but today he showed statesmanship by deciding to move forward and to strengthen the country by embracing the constitution and the rule of law.
A time of enormous uncertainty has been transformed into a time of great opportunity.
The international community is committed to carry out this election... and to make the runoff a success.
We know it will be difficult and require sacrifice. But we are committed to this effort.
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Abdullah ready for runoff with Afghan President Karzai
KABUL, Afghanistan (CNN) -- Afghan President Hamid Karzai's primary challenger said Monday he is prepared to participate in a runoff vote after a report concluded that Karzai did not win a majority, but he also is willing to consider alternatives.
"While I am prepared to go for a runoff, at the same time the door is open," former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah told CNN's Christiane Amanpour. "There are some practical questions ahead," he noted, citing winter, the security situation "and other realities on the ground."
Abdullah did not specify whether his openness to alternatives meant he would agree to participate in a power-sharing government or something else.
"I think, before getting too specific ... I need to get a mandate from my supporters," he said.
But, he added, his goal has always been "to bring changes to the country" rather than simply to get "one or two posts in the Cabinet."
Abdullah said Karzai's camp had approached his camp a few weeks ago, but the contacts were then cut off. "In the past few days, there hasn't been any contacts or approaches between my camp and Karzai's people," he said.
His comments came hours after an independent analysis of election data released Monday concluded that Karzai did not win enough votes to avoid a runoff against Abdullah.
Democracy International, a nongovernmental organization, found that Karzai secured 48 percent of the vote based on its analysis of data released by the U.N.-backed Electoral Complaints Commission, which invalidated ballots from 210 polling stations.
Under the constitution, Karzai needs at least 50 percent of the vote to avoid a runoff. Last month, final uncertified results showed him with 54 percent.
A senior international official close to the election monitoring process in Afghanistan told CNN the analysis was accurate.
Abdullah has nearly 32 percent of the vote, according to Democracy International.
Under Afghan law, the Electoral Complaints Commission is the final arbiter of fraud, but the authority to order a runoff is in the hands of the Independent Election Commission.
The Electoral Complaints Commission ordered the Independent Election Commission on Monday to invalidate ballots, saying it found "clear and convincing evidence of fraud" in the August 20 presidential election. The 210 polling stations account for less than 4 percent of the more than 6,000 polling stations open during the election.
The complaints commission also recommended that each candidate's overall percentage of the vote be reduced according to previous criteria it set forth as part of its "investigation of polling stations that were highly suspicious of fraud."
In addition, the panel decided that 18 polling stations the election commission had quarantined because of fraud suspicions may be included in the results. It is unclear how many votes that represents.
There was no immediate reaction Monday from the Independent Election Commission. Its spokesman recently said the commission would need a day or two to examine the complaints panel's final report before making an announcement about a runoff.
In Washington, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said she expected to hear Tuesday from Karzai. "I am very hopeful that we will see a resolution in line with the constitutional order in the next several days," she said.
The results of the election should be settled before the United States makes any decision on sending more troops to Afghanistan, according to U.S. Sen. John Kerry, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
"It would be entirely irresponsible for the president of the United States to commit more troops to this country when we don't even have an election finished and know who the president is and what kind of government we're working in, with," Kerry told CNN's John King in an interview that aired Sunday on "State of the Union."
Kerry was in Kabul over the weekend and, after flying to Islamabad, Pakistan, returned Monday "for a brief period to continue his consultations and discussions," U.S. Embassy spokeswoman Caitlin Hayden said.
The United States and France are urging Karzai and Abdullah to respect the results of the August election in order to ensure the country has a legitimate government.
Afghan election officials have tentatively set November 1 as the date for a runoff if one is necessary. If the election were not held by early November, winter weather would make voting impossible and force a delay until spring of 2010, according to Afghanistan's ambassador to the United States, Said Jawad.
Such a delay, he warned, would be a "recipe for disaster" that would create confusion in Afghanistan and heighten tension between the United States and Karzai's government.
White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel said on "State of the Union" that the White House believes the "end result must be "a legitimate and credible" government that the Afghan people view as valid.
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Obama not yet sure of Afghanistan troop decision timing
Tue Oct 20, 10:30 am ET
WASHINGTON (AFP) – President Barack Obama has not yet determined whether he will make a decision on sending more troops to Afghanistan before the November 7 election runoff, a US official said Tuesday.
"The UN, NATO, the US stand ready to assist the Afghans in conducting the second round," White House spokesman Robert Gibbs told reporters.
"Whether or not the president makes a decision before that I don't think has been determined.
"I have continued to say a decision will be made in the coming weeks as the president goes through an examination of our policy," he added.
Gibbs also praised Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, US ambassador to Kabul Karl Eikenberry and especially Senator John Kerry, who has been mediating in Afghanistan for several days, for their role in ending the election limbo.
"I don't think there is any doubt that Senator Kerry played an enormously important role in ensuring the announcement that happened today... came out the way it did."
Afghan officials announced earlier that they will hold a runoff presidential election, after incumbent President Hamid Karzai failed to win a clear majority in the fraud-tainted contest.
Obama has been conducting an intensive review of US war strategy in Afghanistan with senior national security officials.
Part of his decision centers on US and NATO war commander General Stanley McChrystal's request for some 40,000 more US troops to mount an intensified counter-insurgency against the Taliban in Afghanistan.
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Troops sweep out militants in N Afghan province
KABUL, Oct. 20 (Xinhua) -- Afghan and the NATO-led forces have launched operation against Taliban militants in the northern Baghlan province to strengthen government control, a press release of Defense Ministry said Tuesday.
"The operation launched recently has so far led to the cleaning up of several villages and government's control has been consolidated," the press release added.
It said that a number of arms and ammunition have been seized by the troops.
However, it did not specify the casualties on the insurgency, adding all the Taliban fighters had left the area without resistance.
Baghlan until early this year a peaceful province in north Afghanistan has been the scene of Taliban activities over the past several months.
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For whom the Afghan poll tolls
By Aunohita Mojumdar Asia Times Online Oct 21, 2009
KABUL - Whatever the August 2009 elections in Afghanistan were to begin with, they have, in the weeks since the polling day, turned into a completely different beast.
Based initially on the premise that Afghans needed to have a voice and say in political participation, the fraud, allegations, counter-allegations, poor management and even poorer leadership have now brought the entire exercise to a state where the only way to validate the elections is to ignore the elections altogether and revert to some pre-electoral system of power-sharing.
On Monday, after weeks of investigation, the United Nations' Electoral Complaints Commission said that many of President Hamid Karzai's votes would have to be declared invalid as a result of fraud. This would most likely bring the total number of his votes below the 50% mark, which he needs to avoid a run-off against the second-placed candidate, Abdullah Abdullah. Latest reports indicate Karzai is ready to accept that he fell short of the votes needed to win an outright victory, which would set the stage for a possible power-sharing deal with Abdullah.
Initially, the elections were seen as a means of validating a fast unraveling compact on Afghanistan. The elections were a necessary component for the international community which needed a signpost of progress in the midst of a rapidly deteriorating security situation and bad governance, a symbol that would justify "project Afghanistan" to the increasingly critical domestic opinion.
At the outset, therefore, the elections were treated by the international community as a component of the "war against terror" and the Taliban-led insurgency. Just the exercise of voting was treated as an end in itself, with Afghans feted for having come out to vote against the insurgents.
In the event, the ballot was neither for nor against the insurgents, but rather a victory for the efforts of Afghans to exercise their rights to choose elected representatives, something that was almost ignored in the hurried efforts to claim victory over the Taliban.
This rush proved counter-productive. Clear evidence of widespread fraud began to emerge even in the hours after polling, giving rise to the appearance that the internationals had endorsed a flawed election. It took several days for the international community to drop its stance that it was for Afghans to determine the credibility of the elections.
While a section of the international community tried to regain its credibility by going to the other extreme and declaring immense fraud had taken place, another section, which had little appetite for a second round of polling, tried to push for a limited procedure to deal with complaints.
The message was that while Afghans could aspire to polling, the logical continuum, whether of thorough investigations or re-polling or a run-off, was far too much of a luxury and one to which a conflict-ridden country should not aspire, even if it were constitutionally mandated.
It became clear very quickly that the international community had made no preparation for dealing with the anticipated fraud, having failed to coordinate even their public responses within their respective organizations, let alone their approaches. The result was an unprecedented public display of disarray, compounded by exhibitions of bad behavior, large egos and hubris.
It would be easy to dismiss the clash as one of personalities, except for the fact that the spectacle, displayed most evidently in the fallout between the United Nations' top man in Afghanistan, Kai Eide, and his deputy, Peter Galbraith, was allowed to carry on for several weeks unchecked.
While the UN acted relatively quickly for a massively bureaucratic organization, by first removing Galbraith from Afghanistan and then dismissing him, the United States appeared paralyzed, refusing to rein in Galbraith until well after the damage was done. European nations appeared to be mute spectators, apparently either unwilling or unable to exercise their influence to stem this hemorrhage.
There is speculation that the entire performance was well-choreographed from the beginning, to force an electoral outcome that would necessitate a second round of polling, thus weakening Karzai and making him more pliable.
However, the price for this has been steep, weakening the international community's influence in general and the UN's neutrality in particular, while eroding the credibility of the electoral exercise. Moreover, the internationals have, over the past few weeks, found themselves completely outmaneuvered by brilliant tacticians within the Afghan polity who have used the unfolding events and the international community's disarray to spectacular advantage.
Karzai and his supporters have used the anti-foreigner card as a pressure tactic, completely ignoring the ground realities which do not conform to a Afghan-foreigner divide, but rather to internal divides both between Afghans and within the international community. A section of the internationals has backed the president, while another section backs Abdullah.
Abdullah, a former foreign minister, has used the elections to reposition himself, thus getting enormous mileage for his anti-Taliban Northern Alliance colleagues who have been out in the cold in recent years. Though the current political system in which the winner takes all would ensure that Abdullah would gain nothing from a second round of polling - it would most likely endorse Karzai - the allegations of fraud and the reluctance of all players to go for a second round have helped provide enormous leverage to Abdullah.
He alone is now in the position of validating the credibility of the results that are declared and of forgoing the dreaded second round of polling in lieu of a share in governance.
Lost in the midst of all this politicking is the oft-mentioned Afghan voter: the same Afghan voter whose name was evoked to justify the necessity of holding elections, despite the conditions which suggested that a free and fair franchise would not be possible, and the same Afghan voter whose bravery was lauded as the raison d'etre of declaring the polls a success.
With a division of the spoils underway to paper over the seminal problems of the electoral exercise, the Afghan voter's right to a democratic exercise now seems far and away the least of considerations, leaving a number of questions unanswered: how many Afghans were excluded from voting by poor management and insecurity? What of the women voters whose votes were either cast for them or whose identities were stolen to perpetuate fraud? What of the millions of voters who did go and vote against the odds, only to find backroom deals among Afghan and international decision-makers replacing their right to choose?
While most Afghans may have expected Karzai to be reconfirmed as their president, they would probably have liked their votes to be counted accurately, just as Republican voters in the US would, despite the overwhelming landslide victory that Democrat Barack Obama received. Afghan voters might, not unsurprisingly, also want their simultaneous votes for electing provincial council members, where victory margins can be as slender as one or two votes, not to be vitiated by fraud.
The entire exercise raises the question as to why elections were held at all if there was no appetite or capacity to see the electoral exercise through to its logical conclusion by ensuring political participation, a credible complaints process, the space for a second round and mechanisms for an acceptable interim arrangement?
At a nascent juncture in efforts to build the Afghan state, where increasing violence makes it even more important to convince Afghans of the need for peaceful democratic means of power-sharing, decision-making and transfer of power, the vitiated election Afghanistan has just completed can be ill-afforded.
The cost of an election which was not inclusive and spectacularly marred by perceptions of fraud and cover-ups will be paid for in the future by the loss of faith of ordinary Afghans in their government, their leaders, the state-building exercise and democratic processes. However, for those with their eyes focused on short-term fixes and exit strategies, this has never been the fundamental issue.
Aunohita Mojumdar is an Indian journalist who has reported on South Asia for 19 years and currently lives and reports from Kabul.
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Afghanistan election runoff poses daunting challenges
A second round of voting in the Afghanistan election, set for Nov. 7, adds security and logistical difficulties to a process already marred by fraud.
By Ben Arnoldy | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor from the October 20, 2009 edition
Kabul, Afghanistan - Flanked by a slew of international statesmen Tuesday, President Hamid Karzai put a second round Afghan election on the calendar, adding daunting new security and logistical pressures to an already deeply troubled election effort.
To this point, observers widely doubted the fraud-marred election would go into a runoff. But Mr. Karzai went for a runoff, rejecting speculation that he and his rival, Abdullah Abdullah, would sidestep another vote through a powersharing deal.
"A coalition government, no, there is no place for a coalition government in the law. There is no legitimacy in that," Karzai told reporters. "A new set of elections will be held in about 14 days' time," he added.
On several occasions, Karzai mentioned "14 days," the window given by the Constitution. Such a rapid runoff would be extremely difficult to conduct and – for it to inspire confidence – would require an immediate, major mobilization of people, money, and institutions.
"If all of the [stakeholders] move quickly, then it is possible to conduct – not in two weeks, but before the snow falls," says Ahmad Nader Nadery, head of the Free and Fair Election Foundation of Afghanistan. "If we are committed – the government, the Independent Elections Commission, the international community, we the civil society – if we are all committed to making a change … then I think it will be a different election."
Among the tasks:
• The United Nations needs to release funds for poll workers, observers, and transport of materials.
• The election commission says it must rehire workers, replacing those implicated in fraud the first time, and put them through a one-week training course. Mr. Nadery adds that fraud won't be tamped down in the commission without top heads rolling and investigations initiated.
• Local and international observers would also need to be mustered. Nadery figures he could gather 5,000 Afghan observers in two weeks – 2,000 less than Round 1.
• International and Afghan security forces would have to mobilize troops to defend polling centers.
Security remains a top concern because it has a big impact on the ultimate question hanging over any runoff: Would anyone even show up to vote?
"We just voted one time, and we are not going to vote again, because in our province of Baglan, the Taliban cut the fingers off our friends because they voted," says Abullah Paiman, a university student in Kabul who voted for Karzai. "If we vote again, next time the Taliban will cut our heads off."
Earlier Tuesday, the ministries of Interior and Defense refused to talk about any security plans they might have for a runoff until that was the official verdict.
However, in the first round, it took the Afghan National Army 15 days to reposition troops in advance of the vote. The troops had difficulty hitching enough rides from the international air forces.
Col. Waine Shanks, a spokesman for the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), says the international military coalition has "been planning for this eventuality for quite some time" and that implementation would just require "some minor repositioning."
Asked if ISAF with Afghan forces could protect the voters, he said: "We will do our best."
Standing beside Karzai at the press conference Tuesday, Sen. John Kerry (D) of Massachusetts used a similar phrase: "Everyone is committed to do the best we can to take the lessons of the last election and apply them rapidly in the next few days."
Those are not the kind of words some Afghans were hoping to hear.
" 'Our best' is not a good term," says Khalid Pashtoon, a member of parliament from the southern province of Kandahar. The international community must speak convincingly that safety will be assured, or voters will not dare venture out, he says.
Given the daunting challenges of the runoff, and the costs in resources and blood to be borne by Afghans and foreigners alike, a negotiated settlement had been the conventional wisdom in Kabul until today's strong statements from Karzai and Mr. Kerry.
"It's not that it's not a scenario any more," says Martine van Bijlert, co-director of the Afghanistan Analysts Network. "But if it's a likely scenario, you don't come out that strongly saying there will be no coalition government."
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U.S. decision can't wait for Afghan legitimacy: Gates
By Phil Stewart – Tue Oct 20, 12:21 am ET
ABOARD A U.S. MILITARY AIRCRAFT (Reuters) – The United States cannot wait for problems surrounding the legitimacy of the Afghan government to be resolved before making a decision on troops, U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said.
Gates, speaking to reporters on board a plane traveling to Tokyo, described the situation in Afghanistan as an evolutionary process that would not improve dramatically overnight, regardless of what course is taken following the country's flawed August election.
"I see this as a process, not something that's going to happen all of the sudden," Gates said.
"I believe that (U.S. President Barack Obama) will have to make his decisions in the context of that evolutionary process."
On Sunday White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel had said Obama's Afghanistan strategy and pending decision on additional U.S. troops depend on whether the Kabul government is effective.
The overriding question is not, "how many troops you send, but do you have a credible Afghan partner," Emanuel said, adding it was important the election outcome be seen as legitimate and credible.
International observers have called for an election run-off after a U.N.-backed fraud watchdog invalidated tens of thousands of votes for Afghan President Hamid Karzai from the August poll.
Pentagon press secretary Geoff Morrell said Gates believed the issue of the Afghan government's legitimacy went well beyond the question of whoever would be declared winner of the election, or an eventual run-off.
It depended on whether the government in Kabul had the faith and confidence of the people, Morrell said.
Another vote could be complicated by a strengthening Taliban insurgency that has tied up tens of thousands of foreign and Afghan troops and the approaching harsh Afghan winter that cuts off hundreds of villages every year.
Gates said he was confident U.S. and NATO forces could provide security for a run-off, should one be decided, but added bad winter weather could prevent Afghans from voting.
"I think the key consideration before us at this point is actually less (one of) security ... (it's) the weather. So getting something done before winter sets in will be very important," he said.
FADING PUBLIC SUPPORT
Gates did not say when he expected U.S. President Barack Obama to decide on whether to increase troops, a decision complicated by rising casualties and fading public support for the stalled, eight-year-old war.
But he pointed out that further high-level deliberations would need to wait for the return of cabinet members from foreign travels through part of next week.
"It's just a matter now of getting the time with the president when we can sort through these options and then tee them up for him to make a decision," Gates said.
Gates is traveling this week to Tokyo, Seoul and then to a NATO conference in Bratislava and said he would urge allies on all these visits to contribute to the Afghan campaign.
The top U.S. and NATO commander in Afghanistan, Gen. Stanley McChrystal, said in a classified assessment leaked to the media that the Afghan mission risked failure without additional troops.
Gates said he did not need to wait for a U.S. decision on troops to speak to NATO allies about McChrystal's resource request, saying "the reality is that this is an alliance issue."
"We ought to do this in a way that if General McChrystal has a set of needs, it should not be looked upon as exclusively the responsibility of the United States to respond," he said.
"So I think that having a discussion of that and the fact that this is a continuing shared responsibility makes it entirely appropriate to have that conversation in Bratislava, before decisions are made by the United States."
(Editing by Sanjeev Miglani and Jerry Norton)
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US troop move may come without Afghan 'legitimacy': Gates
Mon Oct 19, 10:29 pm ET
ABOARD A US MILITARY AIRCRAFT (AFP) – President Barack Obama may have to make a decision on whether to send more US troops to Afghanistan even if the "legitimacy" of the Afghan government remains in doubt, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Tuesday.
Gates told reporters aboard his plane that a decision on strategy and troop levels might have to be taken before the outcome of disputed Afghan elections is fully resolved.
"My view is that whatever emerges in Kabul is going to be an evolutionary process," said Gates when asked about a possible run-off vote.
"The president will have to make his decisions in the context of that evolutionary process," he said.
Gates' comments appeared to diverge from White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel, who suggested on Sunday that a troop decision would have to wait for a resolution of the disputed vote that could produce a "credible" government in Kabul.
The August presidential elections -- tainted by allegations of widespread fraud -- have caused serious concern in the Obama administration over the credibility of President Hamid Karzai's government and helped prompt a wide-ranging review of strategy.
Amid accusations of dithering from Republicans in Congress, Obama has been holding high-level meetings on the war in recent weeks and has held off making a decision on a request from the US commander in Afghanistan for tens of thousands additional forces.
Gates acknowledged the vote had "complicated" the situation in Afghanistan and it would take time for the political tensions to be settled.
The approach of winter meant the window for holding a run-off was closing fast, as snow would make it impossible for many Afghans to reach polling places, he said.
"I think the weather becomes a limiting factor in terms of the run-off," he said.
If there was a run-off in Afghanistan, Gates said he was confident the NATO-led force of more than 100,000 -- including nearly 68,000 American troops -- could provide security for the election along with Afghan security forces.
In the meantime, the United States and its allies would work to bolster the Kabul government's legitimacy and to stem corruption, he said.
"We are not just going to sit on our hands waiting for the outcome of this election and for the emergence of a government in Kabul.
"We have operations underway and we will continue to conduct those operations." he said.
In Kabul, a UN-backed watchdog overseeing Afghanistan's elections ordered votes from 210 polling stations thrown out Monday in a move that observers said deprived Karzai of an outright win.
The findings of the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) over the August 20 vote raised the prospect that Karzai could be forced into a second round or come under intense international pressure to stitch together a national unity government.
The Pentagon chief's press secretary, Geoff Morrell, said that Gates believed the Kabul government's legitimacy was not merely a matter of securing a clear outcome for the elections.
"For the secretary, the legitimacy question is beyond who's declared the victor in the elections," Morrell told reporters.
The question was "does this government, whoever's in charge, have the full faith and confidence of the Afghan people?"
Gates defended the pace of deliberations on Afghanistan and suggested Obama was moving closer to a decision.
"I think it's been a thorough process and I think we are now moving to the point where the president will begin to address specific options and then make his decision," he said.
With Secretary of State Hillary Clinton scheduled to travel next week and Gates on a tour of Asia this week, another round of White House strategy sessions on Afghanistan would have to wait until after next week, he said.
In Washington meanwhile Karzai's main election rival Abdullah Abdullah said he was open to either a run-off vote or other options to resolve Afghanistan's political paralysis.
The former foreign minister declined to elaborate on the other options amid speculation of a national unity government, after a UN-backed commission threw out more than one million fraudulent ballots from the August 20 election.
"While I am prepared to go for a run-off, at the same time the door is open," Abdullah, who accuses Karzai of rampant ballot fraud, told CNN.
Gates, who presided over a ceremony Monday in Hawaii for the new head of the US Pacific Command, was en route to Tokyo, where he will hold talks on Tuesday and Wednesday with the new government ahead of a visit next month by Obama.
The defense secretary was due in Seoul on Wednesday and Thursday before heading to Slovakia for a NATO summit on Friday expected to be dominated by the war in Afghanistan.
Gates, who in the past accused some European allies of falling short in their support for the Afghan mission, also said he was encouraged by the attitude of NATO members this year, saying they had shown a "renewed commitment" to the war effort.
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The Soviets in Afghanistan: Obama's Déjà Vu?
By Mark Thompson / Washington Monday, Oct. 19, 2009 time.com
"It's a tricky situation," said the decision maker huddled with his inner circle, debating what to do next in Afghanistan. "We went in, but how to get out — our head[s] are splitting from this. Of course we can just pull out fast, without thinking of anything and blame the former leadership who started all this." The dilemma may sound familiar as the Obama Administration weighs General Stanley McChrystal's request for 40,000 more troops, but the quote comes from Mikhail Gorbachev, Secretary-General of the Soviet Communist Party, during a debate that raged in the Kremlin during 1986 and 1987. Moscow was grappling with some of the same issues eight years after the Red Army invaded Afghanistan that President Obama today faces, eight years after U.S. troops went in. And eavesdropping, retrospectively, on the Soviet debate on Afghanistan offers some uncomfortable parallels.
The independent National Security Archive at George Washington University recently translated chronicles of the Soviet discussion, mostly from notes taken by Anatoly Chernyaev, Gorbachev's senior foreign policy aide at the time. While the U.S. insists it is not an occupying force as the Soviets were, both missions faced many of the same challenges. "We should honestly admit that our efforts over the last eight years have not led to the expected results," a senior military commander confided to Defense Minister Dmitri Yazov in an August 1987 letter. "Huge material resources and considerable casualties did not produce a positive end result." (The recently leaked assessment by McChrystal noted that "Afghans are frustrated and weary after eight years without evidence of the progress they anticipated.")
Gorbachev, who came to power in 1985, six years after the Soviet invasion, was flummoxed by the situation he had inherited from his predecessors. Obama too: "For six years, Afghanistan has been denied the resources that it demands because of the war in Iraq," the President said in March in a clear slap at the Bush Administration.
"Our ticket out of Afghanistan is the ability of the Afghans to maintain their own security," Defense Secretary Robert Gates said in June. The Soviets believed the same thing two decades earlier, although they were disappointed. "There was a simplified view that the presence of our troops would set Afghanistan on the right track," Politburo member and former Foreign Minister Andrei Gromyko said in February 1987. "And now I would not bet a dime that they can create their own Afghan army, no matter how much resources we invest in it."
Second-guessing of the original invasion was rampant in the Soviet debate. "I am not going to discuss now whether we did the right thing by going there," Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardnadze said in January 1987. "But it is a fact that we went there absolutely not knowing the psychology of the people or the real situation in the country." (The U.S. has "not sufficiently studied Afghanistan's peoples whose needs, identities and grievances vary from province to province and from valley to valley," says McChrystal's August assessment.)
Like the U.S. mission, the Red Army lacked sufficient troops in Afghanistan to control the countryside. "After seven years in Afghanistan, there is not one square kilometer left untouched by a boot of a Soviet soldier," Marshal Sergei Akhromeyev, the top Soviet military officer, said in November 1986. "But as soon as they leave a place, the enemy returns and restores it all back the way it used to be." (McChrystal's take: "The insurgents control or contest a significant portion of the country, although it is difficult to assess precisely how much due to a lack of [U.S. and allied] presence.")
Pakistan was also a key feature of the discussion in both the White House and the Kremlin, although their conclusions differed. "There's no way we're going to be able to close the Afghanistan-Pakistan border," Gromyko declared in February 1987, "so we need to end this war." (Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman Admiral Mike Mullen warned last month, "We have this safe haven in a sovereign country that is threatening, plotting against Americans and other Western countries, and it must be eliminated.")
Newly in power and untested, Gorbachev faced some of the same pressures to prove his mettle as Obama now feels. So he gave the Soviet military one last shot at turning things around, according to Gates, who was the No. 2 man in the CIA at the time. "During Gorbachev's first 18 months in power, we saw new, more aggressive Soviet tactics, a spread of the war to the eastern provinces, attacks inside Pakistan, and more indiscriminate use of air power," Gates wrote in his 1996 autobiography. But it failed to turn the tide. So in February 1988, Gorbachev finally threw in the towel. But at least he could console himself with the belief that the vacuum created by withdrawing would not be filled by Moscow's key adversary. "The U.S.A.," Gorbachev told his Politburo colleagues, "is not going to send in its armed forces if we leave."
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12 militants killed in NW Pakistan tribal area operation
ISLAMABAD, Oct. 20 (Xinhua) -- At least 12 militants were killed and four soldiers lost their lives during ongoing military operation in northwest Pakistan's South Waziristan tribal area in the last 24 hours, an army statement said Tuesday.
Security forces are consolidating their positions and extending perimeter of security around Kaskai and Shisanwam in the area. Militants from surrounding heights are engaging security forces with rockets and small arms. Fire fight is continuing. As a result,12 militants were killed, four soldiers lost their lives and three other soldiers were injured, according to the Inter Services Public relations.
Security forces recovered large quantity of weapons and ammunitions in Jandola-Sararogha area, including mortar bombs, grenades, suicidal jackets, heavy machine gun and many others.
In Shakai-Ladha area, security forces are consolidating their positions at Sherwangi and perimeter of security is also being extended. The important heights surrounding Sherwangi have been secured and militants have vacated their positions leaving behind arms and ammunition.
Besides, eight militants voluntarily surrendered to security forces in Malakand and Swat area in North West Frontier Province (NWFP). Security forces conducted search operation at Salhand and Devolai in NWFP and apprehended three suspects.
Local officials said that 14,500 dislocated families in South Waziristan have been registered and most of them prefer to stay with their relatives elsewhere.
More than 80,000 civilians have fled South Waziristan in anticipation of the offensive and the United Nations refugee agency said more people are leaving this week.
The army warned that up to 250,000 civilians are expected to displace in South Waziristan.
Pakistani security forces launched military operation in South Waziristan tribal agency bordering Afghanistan in early Oct. 17 morning. The army said that about 30,000 soldiers are in place to take on an estimated 10,000 hard-core Taliban militants in the lawless area.
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S Korea considering to make more contributions in Afghanistan: official
SEOUL, Oct. 20 (Xinhua) -- A senior South Korean official on Tuesday said his government is considering of making more contributions in Afghanistan, according to South Korea's Yonhap New Agency.
South Korea has promised to expand its support to the war-torn Central Asian country by providing medical service and vocational training there, but it is "not all", and Seoul will have to do "something more", the official told reporters on condition of anonymity.
However, the official did not give the elaboration on whether the future contributions would include troop dispatch.
The official made the remark in response to a Pentagon official's comments that South Korea has an "obligation" to play a bigger role in the U.S.-led operations in Afghanistan.
U.S. Defense Department spokesman Geoff Morrell said Sunday while accompanying Defense Secretary Robert Gates on trips to South Korea, Japan and Slovakia, that financial aid is what Afghanistan needs most currently and South Korea and Japan have the means to help develop the country.
Morrell hoped that the current levels of aid provided by Seoul for Afghanistan can be maintained or increased in the future, and expected Seoul can offer economic assistance as soon as possible.
"The principle of the United States is not to demand military help (from Seoul). It has constantly called for non-military help including economic assistance, humanitarian aid, and police training," the South Korean official was quoted as saying.
"But South Korea has its own responsibility in the international community to make contributions to match its status and national power," he said, noting that "troop dispatch is not a matter to be decided at another country's request," according to Yonhap.
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Afghanistan: Virtually no safety net for war victims' families
KABUL, 20 October 2009 (IRIN) - Ahmad Wali died in a bomb blast in Kandahar city on 25 August and Samim was killed in a suicide attack in Kabul on 15 September. Both men left grieving families with little capacity to cope on their own.
"We could not afford to pay the rent so we left our old home and have moved into a small room outside the city," said Samim's eldest son, Arif.
"My children cannot go to school any more because we cannot afford their education," said Wali's widow, Pashtana.
Both families have found it increasingly difficult to meet their food needs: "We eat whatever we can find but wait for God's mercy when there is no food," said Pashtana.
"We don't receive a single dollar from the government to help war victims and their families," Suraya Paikan, deputy minister for Labour, Social Affairs and Martyrs & Disabled, told IRIN, adding that tens of thousands of victim households were registered with her department.
The office of the president told IRIN that in the last 18 months over 2,800 "condolence payments" (US$2,000 each) had been made to families that had lost a family member in the war, and 1,700 "sympathy payments" ($1,000) had been distributed to people wounded in the conflict.
However, the president's "condolence payments" are ad hoc and authorized only for specific families - mostly those affected by military operations by pro-government forces, officials said.
Wali and Samim's families said they had received no support from the government or aid agencies apparently because both men were killed in explosions allegedly perpetrated by anti-government forces.
No laws
Despite having one of the largest war victim populations in Asia, Afghanistan does not have a law on how to deal with hundreds of thousands of war widows, orphans and disabled.
"There is a lack of almost everything - from budget, to capacity, to political commitment and to laws and rules," Paikan said.
Noor-ul-Haq Ulomi, a member of the National Assembly who served the Soviet-backed government in the 1980s, accused the international community and the current Afghan government of failing to heed the plight of war victims.
"In the past the [Soviet-backed] government distributed free land and apartments, [making available] education facilities for orphans, and employment for widows and disabled people, but the existing government has done nothing compared to what had been done in the past," he said.
Tiny welfare payments
The families of about 100,000 government employees, police officers, soldiers and Mujahedin fighters killed in fighting between 1979 and 2001 have been registered at the Ministry of Labour, Social Affairs and Martyrs & Disabled (MoLSAMD), but assistance is minimal: With funds from the World Bank the government pays up to $12 monthly (40 US cents a day) to each family.
Government officials acknowledge that the real number of victim families is much higher but say they cannot help all of them.
Some beneficiaries said the monthly payments they received could not meet their needs for a single day, and also criticized the payment process as corrupt and bureaucratic.
"The main weaknesses of the current social protection programmes include lack of well-designed targeting instruments, poor coordination across programmes, poor budgeting, and weak institutional and administrative capacity," the World Bank said in a statement on 15 October. The statement also said the Bank would spend $7.5 million in the next four years to strengthen the capacity of MoLSAMD and help develop its welfare programmes.
More war victims
Meanwhile, more families are becoming victims of the fighting: The UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) recorded 2,118 civilian deaths in 2008, compared to 1523 in 2007.
In 2009 UNAMA "recorded 1,500 civilian casualties between January and August, with August being the deadliest month since the beginning of 2009. These figures reflect an increasing trend in insecurity over recent months and in elections-related violence," said a recent report to the Security Council by the UN Secretary-General.
"Almost three times as many civilian deaths (68 percent) were attributed to anti-government elements' activities than to pro-government forces (23 percent). The most deadly tactics used and which accounted for the largest number of civilian casualties in the conflict to date were attributable to planted improvised explosive devices; suicide attacks carried out by anti-government elements accounted for 39.5 percent of fatalities. Air strikes by pro-government forces accounted for 20 percent of fatalities," the report said.
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Afghan governors call for peace jirga
Oct. 20, 2009 at 1:08 PM
Order reprintsJALALABAD, Afghanistan, Oct. 20 (UPI) -- The governors from three Afghan provinces announced Tuesday there were forming a tribal council to work toward peace, reconciliation and development.
The governors of the eastern provinces of Nangarhar, Hunar and Laghman held a news conference Tuesday in Jalalabad to announce their intention to form a regional peace jirga, or tribal council, the U.N. Assistance Mission in Afghanistan reports.
Gul Agha Sherzai, the provincial governor of Nangarhar, said he wants peace in the eastern provinces and will continue to work toward that end.
A strategy paper outlining the objectives of the peace jirga included establishing contacts with moderate leaders of the Taliban to work toward peace.
"Tribal leaders will be engaged and they will also work on reconciliation with the Taliban," said Sherzai.
Political and military leaders involved in the mission in Afghanistan are said to be considering reconciliation with members of militant groups who may not have a strong belief in the fundamentalist ideology.
The jirga will include more than 300 tribal elders from the eastern provinces. The first meeting is scheduled for Thursday in Jalalabad.
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U.S. defense secretary in Japan with Afghanistan, SOFA on agenda
www.chinaview.cn 2009-10-20 15:33:32
TOKYO, Oct. 20 (Xinhua) -- U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates arrived in Tokyo on Tuesday for talks with the new Democratic Party of Japan government, with the realignment of U.S. forces in the country and Afghanistan likely to be high on the agenda.
Gates has said that any alternative to the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) that was signed by the administration of President George W. Bush and the then-governing Liberal Democratic Party in 2006 had proven "unworkable."
There is, however, little chance that the DPJ will accept this statement, given its alliance with the Social Democratic Party in government, which is opposed to the U.S.-Japan military agreement as it stands, and also the unpopularity of U.S. forces in Okinawa.
Jeff Kingston, a professor at Temple University in Tokyo told Xinhua earlier this month that he expected there to be some change in the SOFA agreement.
"Japan is within its rights to want to insist that the whole SOFA agreement is renegotiated and there are real world consequences of political landslides," he said.
"The American side needs to recognize that. At the very least the U.S. will have to give the DPJ some face-saving concessions, "the professor added.
Japan's role in the Middle East is also likely to be on the agenda.
The DPJ has stated that it intends to end its refueling mission in the Indian Ocean in support of U.S. and other nations' forces in support of the conflict in Afghanistan. A law authorizing Japan forces to conduct the refueling mission will expire in January, and the government is unlikely to renew the mission after this.
The Hatoyama government has suggested it will be willing to help in the Middle East in other ways, with Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada saying at a news conference earlier this month: "We are looking to the future to try and improve the situation in Afghanistan. I am sure there are a lot of different motivations for joining the Taliban, but one of them seems to be that people have no other sources of income. There for we are looking at offering income guarantees and vocational training so people will not have to turn to the Taliban but will be able to support their families in other ways."
Another issue likely to be on the agenda is the nuclear standoff with the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK). In recent months, the DPRK has refused to participate in the six-party talks aimed at denuclearizing Pyongyang, which also include the U.S., Russia, Japan, China and South Korea, and Gates and his Japanese counterparts are likely to reaffirm their cooperation on this issue.
Gates visit is the first by a member of the Obama cabinet since the DPJ was swept to power in a landslide election victory in late August.
His two-day visit comes weeks before President Barack Obama is scheduled to hold talks in the country on Nov. 12 and 13.
Editor: Anne Tang
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US thumbs-up for Indian work in Afghanistan
Chidanand Rajghatta, TNN 20 October 2009, 06:56pm IST Times of India
WASHINGTON: The Obama administration has given a thumbs-up to India's developmental work in Afghanistan, rejecting Islamabad’s complaints that New Delhi's activities there are detrimental to Pakistan’s security.
"I don't see how helping Afghanistan develop its economy and its infrastructure could be seen as a security threat to any other country in the region," State Department spokesman Ian Kelly said on Monday when asked about Pakistan’s persistent protests on the matter.
"On the contrary, a stable and more prosperous Afghanistan is only going to contribute to regional stability," Kelly added, as Washington continued its efforts to address Pakistani fears on the issue that some experts say prevents Islamabad from fully disengaging from terrorist proxies such as Taliban and other militant elements it uses to counter India.
India has invested nearly $1.5 billion in developmental and infrastructure works in Afghanistan, including building roads, hospitals, schools, and the Afghan Parliament building. The effort, which is widely seen as a sharp contrast to Pakistan’s export to that country of Taliban and terrorism, has drawn universal praise. But Pakistan sees it as a pernicious Indian attempt to outflank it and counter its effort to gain strategic depth against India.
From all accounts, Islamabad is yet to accept US counsel that it is not India or Indian influence in Afghanistan that poses an existential threat to Pakistan, but its own terrorist proxies it has nurtured for decades to keep India off-balance. That policy has now begun to bite Pakistan, judging by the serial terrorist attacks in the country by its home-grown terrorist groups.
The Pakistani case for strategic depth in the region has also been considerably undermined, now that is accused of fostering terrorism by at least three surrounding countries – India, Afghanistan, and more recently, Iran.
But in an oblique warning to New Delhi delivered in the US earlier this month, Pakistan’s foreign minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi insisted that Indians would ''have to justify their interest'' in Afghanistan and their ''level of engagement (in Kabul) has to be commensurate with'' the fact that ''they do not share a border with Afghanistan, whereas (Pakistan) we do.'' A second bomb attack on the Indian Embassy in Kabul followed four days later.
The Obama administration has repeatedly shot down Islamabad’s claims of strategic interest in Afghanistan, including what US officials say are wildly exaggerated claims of Indian consulates and personnel on the Afghan border with Pakistan. The US pointman on Af-Pak Richard Holbrooke, among others, scoffed at Pakistani accounts of India's allegedly subversive activity from Afghanistan.
In fact, the Indian effort also came for praise in Gen.Stanley McChrystal’s report on the Af-Pak theater, although he warned of possible complications in the region because of possible Pakistani counter-measures in the face of increasing Indian influence. ''While Indian activities largely benefit the Afghan people, increasing Indian influence in Afghanistan is likely to exacerbate regional tensions and encourage Pakistani countermeasures in Afghanistan or India,'' McChrystal said.
But Pakistani interpretation of the report is that McChrystal has criticized Indian presence and virtually asked New Delhi to withdraw from the Afghanistan -- a self-serving narrative that Kelly pretty much shot down on Monday. Indian officials too have told TOI that at no stage has Washington asked New Delhi to downsize or change its work profile in Afghanistan. On the contrary, there has been appreciation for the Indian policy of winning hearts and minds in Afghanistan, which the U.S is also now trying to adopt.
However, in a subtle message to New Delhi, Kelly said ''the main thing is that we all conduct this in full transparency, that any side that is contributing towards the reconstruction of Afghanistan, that we do so in a cooperative way, that we share as much information as possible.'' The sub-text – India should reassure Pakistan on the matter and take it on board if possible.
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Battle intensifies as Taliban retake Pakistani town
By Kamran Haider – Tue Oct 20, 11:26 am ET
DERA ISMAIL KHAN, Pakistan (Reuters) – Taliban militants attacked Pakistani forces and recaptured a strategic town on Tuesday while two suicide bomb blasts at an Islamic university in the capital killed six people and wounded at least 20, officials said.
The government made an immediate link between the university attack and an offensive against the Taliban, with Interior Minister Rehman Malik saying "all roads are leading toward South Waziristan."
Fighting for control of the lawless area is a major test of the government's ability to tackle an increasingly brazen insurgency that has seen a string of attacks in various parts of the country.
The army on Monday captured the small town of Kotkai, the birthplace of Pakistani Taliban chief Hakimullah Mehsud on the approach to an insurgent base in south Waziristan, but militants struck back on Tuesday to retake it, security officials said.
Two suicide bomb blasts at the International Islamic University in Islamabad on Tuesday -- the first since the offensive began -- killed six people, including the bombers, and wounded at least 20, officials said.
The sprawling university teaches over 12,000 students, nearly half of them female and including hundreds of foreigners, focusing on education that incorporates Islam in modern times.
"Those who attacked the university have shown that they are neither friends of Islam nor of Pakistan," minister Malik said. "Those carrying out this aggression are just testing nerves of our nation."
Remote and rugged South Waziristan, with its rocky mountains and patchy forests cut through by dry creeks and ravines, is a global hub for militants, and the offensive is being closely followed by the United States and other powers embroiled in Afghanistan.
An intelligence official said jets bombed Taliban positions in and around Kotkai after the militant counter-attack.
The town, also the home town of Qari Hussain Mehsud, a senior Taliban commander known as "the mentor of suicide bombers," is a gateway to a militant stronghold at Sararogha.
It is not possible to verify independently reports from the battle zone as foreign reporters are not allowed in and it is dangerous for Pakistani reporters to visit. Many of the Pakistani media based in South Waziristan have left.
The army says 90 militants and 13 soldiers have been killed since the long-awaited offensive began on Saturday.
"In last 24 hours ... 12 terrorists have been killed during security forces operations," the military said in a statement, adding that four soldiers had died and three were wounded.
There was no independent verification of the tolls.
U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said he was encouraged by the offensive but it was too early to gauge the impact. General David Petraeus, commander of U.S. forces in the region, held talks with Pakistani military and government officials on Monday.
Military officials and analysts said forces had faced less resistance than expected, but heavy fighting was likely when soldiers approach militant sanctuaries in the forest-covered mountains.
About 28,000 soldiers are battling an estimated 10,000 hard-core Taliban, including about 1,000 tough Uzbek fighters and some Arab al Qaeda members.
The militants have had years to prepare their bunkers, but the army says it has surrounded the entire militant zone and was attacking from the north, southwest and southeast.
More than 100,000 civilians have fled South Waziristan in anticipation of the offensive, with about 26,000 of them leaving since October 13, the United Nations said.
Up to 200,000 people could flee, the army says.
The army has launched brief offensives in South Waziristan before, the first in 2004 when it suffered heavy casualties before striking a peace pact.
This time, however, analysts say the army, the government and the general public all agree the time has come to deal with the Pakistani Taliban.
"I'm obviously encouraged by the Pakistani operations. I think that the terrorist attacks that have been launched inside Pakistan in recent days made clear the need to begin the deal with this problem," Gates said aboard a U.S. military aircraft.
"And so we obviously are very supporting of what the Pakistanis are doing. But it's very early yet."
Pakistani stocks fell 4.34 percent on Monday on worries about security, but rebounded on Tuesday, with the index closing up 1.68 percent at 9,569.06 points.
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France, UK to fly Afghan migrants to Kabul
Reuters via Yahoo! UK & Ireland News
France and Britain plan to deport 16 illegal Afghan migrants in a joint flight late on Tuesday, a police source said, part of a crackdown that has met with an outcry from human rights groups. Skip related content
French opposition Socialists also attacked the move, saying it was a violation of human rights to send the migrants back to Afghanistan given the security situation there.
Immigration Minister Eric Besson declined to comment, though he confirmed that France was in principle ready to deport migrants whose asylum claims had been rejected.
"At the same time, we said that there could be no return unless a certain number of conditions were met -- security at the destination, the possibility of reintegration," he told reporters on the sidelines of a UMP party conference.
A spokesman for the Home Office said it was their policy not to confirm or deny such flights until after the plane had landed.
The policed flight will start in London and stop at Paris's Roissy airport before continuing to Kabul, the police source said. France and Britain agreed on such flights in July.
France is one of the main contributors of troops in Afghanistan after the United States, Britain and Germany, with a roughly 3,000-strong contingent.
"It's absolutely staggering that the country of human rights, the host country, sends men and women who flee those we are fighting back into the lion's jaws," said Martine Aubry, leader of the opposition Socialist party, after a meeting with Prime Minister Francois Fillon.
Last month, French police cleared an improvised camp dubbed "the jungle" near the port of Calais where illegal migrants gathered before trying to cross to Britain.
More than 10,000 people including Bertrand Delanoe, the socialist mayor of Paris, signed a petition by France Terre d'Asile against forced deportations to Afghanistan.
"The security situation in that country has markedly worsened in recent years," the petition reads. "Nothing can ensure people's safety, not even the international coalition in Afghanistan."
(Reporting by Nicolas Bertin and Sophie Hardach in Paris and Tim Castle in London)
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