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February 19, 2009 

Pakistani Accord Appears Stalled
Government, Extremists Make No Move To Formalize Their Pact on Islamic Law
Washington Post Foreign Service By Pamela Constable, Karen DeYoung and Haq Nawaz Khan Thursday, February 19, 2009; A09
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan - A controversial, closely watched peace agreement designed to end Taliban violence in the scenic Swat Valley hung in limbo Wednesday amid criticism in Pakistan and rising concern in Washington.

US to press allies for more Afghanistan troops
Thu Feb 19, 5:10 am ET
ON BOARD A US MILITARY AIRCRAFT (AFP) – The administration of President Barack Obama will expect NATO allies to boost troop levels in Afghanistan ahead of elections there in August, US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said.

Afghan Civilian Casualties May Surge as Well
by Ali Gharib Inter Press Service February 19, 2009
U.S. President Barack Obama announced Tuesday that he is sending two additional combat brigades to Afghanistan, marking the start of what many believe will be an escalation that will ultimately see the U.S. forces there double.

Q&A - Supply routes for Western troops in Afghanistan
February 19, 2009
(Reuters) - Kyrgyzstan's parliament voted overwhelmingly on Thursday to close a U.S. air base in the Central Asian nation which is a transit point for U.S.-led fighting in nearby Afghanistan. Skip related content

The Taliban get their first wish
By Syed Saleem Shahzad Asia Times Online / February 19, 2009
KARACHI - Many Muslims believe that ancient Khorasan - which covers parts of modern-day Afghanistan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Iran, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan - is the promised land from where they will secure

New German Envoy to Afghanistan Plans First Visit to Region
Deutsche Welle, Germany 18.02.2009
The new German special envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan, Bernd Muetzelburg, is expected in Washington for initial discussions ahead of his first trip to the crisis region next week.

Roadside bomb kills one, injuries 2 in E Afghanistan
Xinhua February 19, 2009
A bomb planted by insurgents struck the car of an Indian engineer in Khost province east of Afghanistan Thursday, killing a local guard and wounding two others including the engineer, police said.

Russian flour reaches Afghanistan under new aid program
KABUL, February 19 (RIA Novosti) - A total of 25 rail cars loaded with high-quality Russian flour have already arrived in the Afghan city of Hairaton, an economic and trade advisor to the Russian Embassy in Afghanistan said on Thursday.

Kyrgyzstan to vote on key US base
19 February 2009 BBC News
Kyrgyzstan's parliament is due to vote on whether to close a strategic US air base that supports US and Nato operations in Afghanistan.

'Poor progress' on Afghanistan opium
By Jack Doyle Press Association Thursday, 19 February 2009
The lack of security in Afghanistan is "severely hampering" efforts to tackle opium production, a drugs monitoring body warned today.

Perils of an Afghan bus journey
By Bilal Sarwary BBC News, northern Afghanistan Wednesday, 18 February 2009
On a dark winter morning in northern Afghanistan, Mohammad Hassan is about to drive his 12-seat van from Kunduz to Pol-e Khomri.

Plight of child labourers on Pakistani border
TORKHAM, 19 February 2009 (IRIN) - Sahib Jan, 10, steers his way through crowds of people with a wheelbarrow overloaded with sacks of 20kg wheat flour in the Torkham border town connecting

Afghan Mps: Dr. Spanta is Illegitimate Foreign Minister
Written by www.quqnoos.com Wednesday, 18 February 2009
Maintaining his position as a foreign minister as a big disrespect to the Afghan parliament
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Pakistani Accord Appears Stalled
Government, Extremists Make No Move To Formalize Their Pact on Islamic Law
Washington Post Foreign Service By Pamela Constable, Karen DeYoung and Haq Nawaz Khan Thursday, February 19, 2009; A09
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan - A controversial, closely watched peace agreement designed to end Taliban violence in the scenic Swat Valley hung in limbo Wednesday amid criticism in Pakistan and rising concern in Washington.

Neither the Pakistani government nor the Islamist extremists were willing to formalize the accord, announced by Pakistani officials Monday. The proposed pact marks an unprecedented and risky attempt to disarm about 2,000 Taliban fighters, who have invaded and terrorized a once-bucolic area of 1.5 million people in northwestern Pakistan, by offering to install a strict system of Islamic law in the surrounding district.

Supporters see the offer as an urgently needed bid for peace and a potential model for other areas ravaged by Pakistan's growing Islamist militancy, which controls areas 80 miles from the capital of this nuclear-armed Muslim nation. Critics say it would make too many concessions to ruthless extremist forces and provide them with a launching pad to drive deeper into the settled areas of Pakistan from their safe haven in the rough tribal districts along the border with Afghanistan.

"This is a bad idea that sends a very wrong signal," said Rifaat Hussain, a professor of defense and security studies at Quaid-i-Azam University in Islamabad, the capital. "It legitimizes the existence of violent armed groups and allows them to draw the wrong lesson: that if you are powerful enough to challenge the writ of the state, it will cave in and appease you."

In Washington, where the Obama administration has been conspicuously silent about the agreement, officials said privately that they considered it a major setback for U.S. goals in the region. "It's a surrender disguised as a truce," one official said, describing it as an admission that the government lacks the capacity to defend the crucial western part of the country.

Several officials said the proposed pact was evidence that the Pakistani government has no coherent plan for combating militancy. One noted that Pakistan had offered no comprehensive package of economic aid or outlined a long-term structure for the region. "This is signing a deal and calling it done," this official said. "What comes next?"

In December, Pakistani troops attempting to roust the Taliban from the Swat Valley were defeated by the far smaller extremist force. The military "met resistance that they and we didn't expect," a U.S. official said, citing sophisticated Taliban tactics, command and communications and participation by extremists from Chechnya and Afghanistan. The military, he said, "won some tactical victories; they didn't win their strategic objectives."

Monday's proposed peace accord took the Obama administration by surprise, U.S. officials said. They received no advance notice of the deal and remained uncertain of what was happening on the ground. "We're not even sure if it's a real deal," a senior U.S. military official said.

The officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of diplomatic and military sensitivities, said they hoped for clarification by next week, when senior Pakistani and Afghan delegations are due to arrive in Washington for high-level talks that are part of the administration's strategic review of the Afghan war effort and its policy toward Pakistan and the region.

The delegations will be headed by the foreign ministers of the two countries and will meet with Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and special envoy Richard C. Holbrooke, among others.

Holbrooke, who set up the visits during a tour of the region last week, said Wednesday that the administration expected two things from the meetings. "One, a sense of both countries that they are participating actively in shaping our strategy toward their countries, that it's not just a unilateral dictat. Secondly, " he said, "to stimulate them to do similar strategic thinking.

Afghan President Hamid Karzai, whose government faces an identical challenge from Taliban insurgents controlling large portions of the Afghan countryside, plans to travel to Islamabad on Thursday for talks with Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari and other officials.

In the Swat Valley, a second day of confusion and uncertainty about the pact passed Wednesday, with rising hopes and a jubilant peace march among the local population, followed by the brutal killing of a Pakistani TV journalist, Musa Khan Khel. He was apparently seized and shot by fighters while covering the peace march, despite a Taliban offer of a 10-day cease-fire while elements of the accord are implemented.

Thousands of people turned out Wednesday morning in Swat to cheer and follow a delegation of religious and political leaders who entered the Taliban-controlled territory to persuade the extremists to sign the pact and put down their weapons. The Taliban has ravaged the once-pristine, affluent area for months, burning schools, killing police and ordering women to remain home. More than half the populace is believed to have fled their homes.

Leaders of Pakistan's secular Awami National Party, which orchestrated the deal, insist that it will bring a better justice system to the region and that they can reason with the Taliban because they are from the same ethnic Pashtun tribe. But other prominent Pakistanis assert that civilian leaders underestimate the danger posed by the insurgents.

"All segments of society and the general public need to be educated that Talibanization is a real and serious threat to the country, and that if nothing is done to stop its advance, then the anarchy will spread," Asad Munir, a retired brigadier and former intelligence chief in North-West Frontier Province, wrote in the News newspaper Tuesday. Pakistan's intelligence service once helped create Islamist militias to fight other wars.

In Swat, where followers of a nonviolent Islamist leader named Sufi Mohammad have been demanding the enforcement of Islamic law for years, the announcement of the agreement Monday was greeted by relief and hope. Shops reopened and people flooded the streets after months of hurrying home in fear. Preparations were made to welcome Mohammad, who had offered to come to Swat and persuade the fighters to lay down their arms.

On Wednesday morning, Mohammad's "caravan of peace" made its way into the valley, and thousands of well-wishers rallied in the central town of Mingaora. Many people seemed nervous and uncertain, however, and black-turbaned Taliban fighters were seen patrolling the outskirts of the city with weapons and walkie-talkies.

"We want peace at any cost," Gul Bad Shah, 46, a shopkeeper in one town said as the marchers passed. "We are very happy to see the hustle and bustle in the markets after a long time." A college student named Rehmanullah, 22, said the Taliban movement in Swat "will evaporate once the law is implemented in letter and spirit."

All day, Mohammad and his delegation moved from town to town, chanting for peace and hearing the cheers of supporters. Senior provincial officials and legislators, who rarely dare to venture into Swat these days, accompanied them. But a negotiating committee from the Taliban met in an undisclosed location and made no public comment.

The government's position on the deal also remained unclear, creating further anxiety. President Zardari, reportedly under pressure from the West, went a second day without signing the pact or making public the details of the law system. Several leaders in Swat told Geo television that they could co-exist with the Taliban and blamed the government for sabotaging their chance for peace.

But by late afternoon, news that Khan Khel had been slain while covering the march seemed to mock public hopes that the extremists' word could be trusted. Videos on the evening news showed him interviewing smiling people along the route, interspersed with images of colleagues carrying his corpse.

"He was with us all day on the march, and then suddenly we heard he had been kidnapped and killed and his body dumped on the road," said Irfan Ashraf, a reporter for Dawn television, speaking from Swat. "He was a journalist to the core, a sweet guy, and now he is no more here with us."

DeYoung reported from Washington. Khan reported from Mingaora. Special correspondent Shaiq Hussain in Islamabad contributed to this report.
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US to press allies for more Afghanistan troops
Thu Feb 19, 5:10 am ET
ON BOARD A US MILITARY AIRCRAFT (AFP) – The administration of President Barack Obama will expect NATO allies to boost troop levels in Afghanistan ahead of elections there in August, US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said.

"The administration is prepared ... to make additional commitments to Afghanistan, but there clearly will be expectations that the allies must do more as well," said the Pentagon's top official.

Gates was speaking on board an aircraft shuttling him to a two-day meeting of NATO defense ministers in Krakow, Poland, which begins on Thursday.

Obama authorized on Tuesday the deployment of 17,000 extra troops to Afghanistan by the middle of this year, increasing the current US force by about 50 percent.

General David McKiernan, who commands US and NATO forces in Afghanistan, welcomed the decision but warned of a "tough year" ahead, saying there would be no quick victory in the campaign against Taliban insurgents.

He also said that the United States would have to keep the higher level of troops in place for an indefinite period.

"Even with these additional forces, I have to tell you, 2009 is going to be a tough year," McKiernan told reporters Wednesday at the Pentagon.

"There are the baseline problems of poverty and literacy and violence that have occurred over the last three decades in that country, so that's not going to turn around quickly," he said.

"But we do see, with these additional forces, an opportunity to break this stalemate, at least in terms of security conditions in the south," he said.

The general said NATO troops were training Afghan military and police but that it would take up to four years before the international force could hand over to the Afghans and have them take a leading role.

The general said most of the additional US forces would be used in the south, a region where security has deteriorated and where large areas remain without any NATO military presence. Violence was likely to rise initially in territory where US forces set up outposts for the first time, he said.

The extra troops would be in place by the height of the fighting season this summer and before Afghanistan's national elections August 20, he said.

Gates said the US would especially press allies to supply troops, even for short term deployments in the run up to the elections.

"Will continue to ask the allies to provide even a short term plus up in the forces to provide with security in the pre-election period.

"There is a requirement out there in terms of the desire to have people sign up for additional troops during that period and frankly the response so far has been disappointing," he added.

Gates refused to say whether Washington was ready to send even more troops if deployment levels do not meet the demands of McKiernan.

McKiernan last year had requested up to 30,000 additional troops, which would nearly double the size of a US force that has grown to 38,000 troops. There are about 70,000 foreign troops in Afghanistan.

Meanwhile Gates also accused Russia of doublespeak when it comes to Afghanistan.

"I think that the Russians are trying to have it both ways with respect to Afghanistan," he said citing Russian involvement in a decision by Kyrgyzstan to close the Manas military base there - an important logistics center for the Afghan mission.

"On one hand, you're making positive noises about working with us in Afghanistan, on the other hand you're working against us in terms of that air field, which is clearly important to us," he said of Russia.

"We need to work this relation through in a constructive way.
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Afghan Civilian Casualties May Surge as Well
by Ali Gharib Inter Press Service February 19, 2009
U.S. President Barack Obama announced Tuesday that he is sending two additional combat brigades to Afghanistan, marking the start of what many believe will be an escalation that will ultimately see the U.S. forces there double.

There are some 36,000 U.S. troops already in Afghanistan, and the additional 17,000 alone represent a nearly 50 percent increase.

"[T]he situation in Afghanistan/Pakistan demands urgent attention and swift action," Obama said in a statement. "To meet urgent security needs, I approved a request from Secretary [of Defense Robert] Gates to deploy a Marine Expeditionary Brigade later this spring and an Army Stryker Brigade and the enabling forces necessary to support them later this summer."

But an increased U.S. presence will likely result in more combat confrontations. That, in turn, leads to an increased risk to the civilian population of Afghanistan, human rights groups stress.

And those sorts of deaths, injuries and destruction of property have so far been demonstrably destructive to the U.S.-led international effort to stabilize Afghanistan and defeat the violent insurgency being waged by the Taliban and other militant groups.

Some modicum of harm to civilians is likely inevitable as long as massive numbers of foreign troops make war in Afghanistan, but there are steps that the international community can take to minimize the damage that this civilian toll will take on the war effort.

The Campaign for Innocent Victims in Conflict (CIVIC) says that one way to do this is by acknowledging the burden on civilians by, when appropriate, apologizing and compensating victims and their families.

In a report released Tuesday, CIVIC said that despite efforts already underway, the international community must do more to ensure that compensation reaches civilian victims of the conflict.

The recommendation is particularly acute as last year's death toll for the conflict shows a staggering increase in civilian casualties. The U.N. reported Tuesday that such deaths were up nearly 40 percent in 2008, to a total of 2,118 civilians killed. As a result, the popularity of the seven-year-old campaign is plummeting among Afghans.

A poll of Afghan public opinion released last week by ABC News, the BBC, and ARD said that a slight majority of Afghans view the U.S. unfavorably. In 2005, by comparison, the U.S. garnered an 83 percent favorable rating.

That news is daunting for Washington and its international allies as they continue to try to win over – or, it seems, win back – the affections of local populations. Winning "hearts and minds" is a central tenet of fighting a counter-insurgency war, as the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) is doing there.

The report, "Losing the People: The Costs and Consequences of Civilian Suffering in Afghanistan", puts the outlook in stark terms: "The international coalition in Afghanistan is losing public support, one fallen civilian at a time," reads the first sentence.

As a baseline for all its recommendations, the report insists that "all parties to the conflict in Afghanistan take all possible steps to avoid civilian deaths, injuries and property damage."

But, as with any conflict, sometimes those occurrences are unavoidable. In those cases, said the report, the victims need to be adequately compensated in order to prevent them from turning against the international forces.

The mechanisms for such compensation already exist – payment for a lost relative is usually between 1,000 and 2,000 dollars – but the response of the international forces and community need to be drastically improved, the report noted.

"We just need to get better at programs that already exist, and make sure they're fully funded," said Erica Gaston, a fellow with CIVIC and primary author of the report, discussing her findings Tuesday at the New America Foundation in Washington.

Gaston was in Afghanistan for a year researching civilian casualties and compensation, and interviewed over 143 victims from as wide a range as could be found. For example, some interviewees were families of victims killed in 2001 at the outset of the U.S.-led invasion, while others were families of victims who had been killed as recently as last year.

Sarah Holewinski, the executive director of CIVIC, said that there were two reasons for meaningful compensation: "moral", in which the U.S. needs to live up to its rhetoric about "hearts and minds, humanity and compassion"; and "strategic", as the mission requires civilian populations to side with international forces.

As for specific improvements to the identification and compensation of victims, the CIVIC report recommends better cooperation of different international actors by "sharing databases, establishing mechanisms for civilian referral and identification or other measures that respect confidentiality concerns of both the actor and the civilian."

In addition to identifying victims, there are problems with the mechanisms for delivering compensation.

The first problem is that the international forces are loath to open themselves up to legal responsibility. In order to facilitate continued compensation, the report takes a diplomatic line that "where necessary, [ISAF and NATO forces should] admit responsibility, thought not necessarily legal fault, quickly and publicly."

No matter the quibbling over the differences between "responsibility" and "legal fault", the panelists Tuesday all emphasized the importance of "redress" for the Afghan victims.

"We did find in our interview that apologies are important," said Gaston, later emphasizing that compensation has become a part of an "unofficial judicial system" in Afghanistan. "Compensation and apologies are expected in Afghanistan... and we have the means of providing them."

Still, while the means exist for delivery in many places, they don't exist in all places. In particular, many of the civilian deaths that anger residents occur because of ISAF and NATO airstrikes that don't discriminate between civilians and military targets. Those airstrikes are often called in exactly because forces on the ground have trouble getting in.

"It is one of the most difficult [issues]," said Gaston, "to provide compensation in these areas."

She said that international forces sometimes give compensation through intermediaries -though she admits this invites corruption – and also set up offices in city centers which people can travel to.

However, the report emphasized that a coherent, unified approach was needed for compensation in order to make it effective and streamline it so that benefits will be realized by the civilian victims of the conflict.

As of now, it said, different programs set up by different actors make up an ad hoc compensation network that sometimes fails to deliver for victims – leaving their physical and emotional scars to fester and potentially turning them against international forces.

"You get the sense that the international community is trying to fly the plane and build the plane at the same time in this challenge," said Eric Schwartz, the executive director of the Connect U.S. Fund, which funded Gaston's work, and a former National Security Council official for humanitarian efforts.

"The issue is kind of complicated," he said, though he did praise Gates's comments about "making amends" from his confirmation hearings as Obama's Defense chief.

"This is largely about leadership," Gaston agreed. If "the tone is set at the top," she said, it could make a great impact on compensation and, therefore, the war effort.
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Q&A - Supply routes for Western troops in Afghanistan
February 19, 2009
(Reuters) - Kyrgyzstan's parliament voted overwhelmingly on Thursday to close a U.S. air base in the Central Asian nation which is a transit point for U.S.-led fighting in nearby Afghanistan. Skip related content

Here are some key questions and answers linked to the deployment.

WHAT IS THE U.S. BASE USED FOR?

Manas, the last remaining U.S. air base in Central Asia, is used as a stopover for ferrying supplies and troops into Afghanistan. About 15,000 people and 500 tonnes of cargo go through the base every month, the Pentagon says.

WHY IS THE DECISION SIGNIFICANT?

U.S. President Barack Obama has pledged to make Afghanistan a foreign policy priority and has ordered 17,0000 more troops sent to the south of the country to try to break the stalemate against Taliban insurgents.

The extra troops, added to 38,000 U.S. and 30,000 mostly NATO forces already in Afghanistan, will put more strain on supply lines to the landlocked country that have already been hit by a series of attacks on trucks bringing equipment through Pakistan.

WHAT ARE THE SUPPLIES ROUTES?

The cheapest way to bring bulk supplies to Afghanistan is by land. The U.S. Defence Department says the U.S. military sends 75 percent of supplies for the Afghan war through or over Pakistan, including 40 percent of fuel.

There are two land routes through Pakistan into Afghanistan, one through the Khyber Pass in northwest Pakistan to the border town of Torkham and on to Kabul. The other goes through Pakistan's Baluchistan province to the border town of Chaman and on to the southern Afghan city of Kandahar.

The U.S. military and NATO do not give details of the supplies they get via Pakistan or a breakdown of how much comes on the two routes, but Pakistani customs officials say about 300 trucks with supplies for Western forces come through the Khyber Pass every day and about 100 through Chaman.

Another route from the sea through Iran is impractical for now due to the political problems between Tehran and the West.

The responsibility for equipping forces within NATO's Afghan force lies with each country. Some nations, for example Germany, have long-standing agreements on the transport of supplies through Russia and Central Asia to the north.

Most of NATO's fuel already comes from Afghanistan's northern neighbours, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.

A first shipment of goods for U.S. forces in Afghanistan is to leave Latvia soon and cross Russia and Central Asia by train under a new agreement. Fellow Baltic state Estonia said its ports could also be used. U.S. officials say 20 to 30 trainloads a week could go from Latvia to Afghanistan if the route is a success.

The chief of the U.S. Central Command, General David Petraeus, was in Uzbekistan this week to negotiate bringing supplies through that country.

As well as the air route through Manas, troops and supplies are also airlifted into Afghanistan through bases in the Gulf and Europe.

SO WHAT IS THE PROBLEM?

According to U.S. and NATO officials, there isn't one.

U.S. commanders say the closure of Manas will have no effect on their operations in Afghanistan and say the losses on the route through the Khyber Pass are less than 1 percent of all supplies and operationally insignificant.

Since the beginning of December, some 300 trucks carrying supplies to Western forces in Afghanistan have been destroyed on their way through the Khyber Pass. As 300 supply trucks a day pass through that route, that is around 0.01 percent of the traffic on that route that has been destroyed since December 1, and that is excluding the supplies coming via other routes.

Pakistan has however closed its border for two to three days at a time in protest at suspected U.S. missile strikes on militant targets inside the Pakistani border tribal region.

U.S. and NATO commanders say that while they have large stockpiles of supplies, it is always a good policy to diversify supply routes and not rely too heavily on any single one.
(Compiled by Jon Hemming; Editing by Valerie Lee)
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The Taliban get their first wish
By Syed Saleem Shahzad Asia Times Online / February 19, 2009
KARACHI - Many Muslims believe that ancient Khorasan - which covers parts of modern-day Afghanistan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Iran, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan - is the promised land from where they will secure the first victory in the end-of-time battle in which the final round, according to their beliefs, will be fought in Bilad-i-Sham (Palestine-Lebanon-Syria).

The geographical borders of Bilad-i-Sham-Khorasan extend from Samarkand in Uzbekistan to the small Malakand division in the northern fringe of Pakistan's North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) that includes the militant-dominated Swat Valley.

On Monday, at a time when United States Central Command chief General David Petraeus was trying to set up a supply route for troops in Afghanistan through Uzbekistan, in this extreme corner of the promised land of Khorasan - Malakand division - militants had every reason to celebrate.

Asif Ali Zardari, the strongly American-backed Pakistani president, and the provincial government of NWFP gave in to the demands of militants and announced a ceasefire, lifted a two-year-old curfew and announced the implementation of Islamic sharia law.

"All un-Islamic laws in the Malakand division of Swat, which is geographically one third of the whole [NWFP] province, have been abolished," the chief minister of NWFP, Amir Haider Khan Hoti, told the media after reaching an agreement with the Tehrik-i-Nifaz-i-Shariat-i-Mohammadi, which is headed by Sufi Mohammad, the symbol of the sharia movement in Malakand division. The Islamic judicial system will be enforced by Islamic judges - qazi.

The accord is a significant victory for the Pakistan Taliban and could end two years of strife in the region which has seen militants pitted against Pakistani security forces.

The peace agreement will be complemented by a compensation package for the families of those killed and injured in the military operations. "[Families] of those who were killed will get 300,000 rupees [US$3,760] and those who were wounded will get 100,000 rupees," Hoti said. "The entire deal, Islamic laws and other packages related to the deal were completely approved by the president of Pakistan," he said.

"We have established a task force which will monitor the implementation of Islamic law, but enforcement will be bound by peace and the writ of the state," said Hoti. "The security forces now [after the signing of the agreement] will be in reactive rather than proactive mode. They will only retaliate if somebody tries to challenge the writ of the state," Hoti said.

The army's Inter-Services Public Relations confirmed that the curfew has been lifted, after two years, in Swat Valley. Militants have also announced a ceasefire for 10 days which is likely to extend for an indefinite period.

The developments in Malakand division coincide with the arrival in Afghanistan of close to 3,000 American soldiers as part of an extra 30,000 to boost the already 30,000 US troops in the country. The new contingent will be deployed in Logar province to secure violent provinces near the capital Kabul. Petraeus must now be thinking of how many more troops he will need to confront the additional Taliban fighters that will come from Malakand.

Taliban's victory: A curtain raiser to the spring battle

A key factor in the Taliban's revival after being driven from power by US-led forces in 2001 was that from 2004 they established a strong network in Pakistan that was coordinated by al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden and his deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri.

A focal point of this was the radical Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) in Islamabad, which was stormed in July 2007 by Pakistani security forces to clear it of militants. The network extended into the Swat Valley, streamed into Bajaur Agency and Mohmand Agency from where militants fed the Afghan insurgency in Kunar and Nooristan provinces.

Other flows of militants into South Waziristan and North Waziristan, Kurram Agency and Khyber Agency respectively fed the Afghan insurgency in the provinces of Paktia, Paktika, Khost and Nangarhar provinces.

By this time, Western intelligence had realized that these developments in Pakistan were a major factor behind the "fireworks" in Afghanistan, and Islamabad was told as much. The Pakistanis were also warned that the militants could also launch a revolution in Pakistan. This was a major turning point in the "war on terror" in the South Asian theater.

For the first time, Islamabad felt a chill up its spine and viewed the situation from a different perspective - not as an American war in which its participation was drawn out of compulsion, but as a war necessary to maintain the status quo of its own system. This system was a blend of the country's deep relationship with the US and the perpetuation of the military oligarchy, combined with a particular brand of Islam that could co-exist with this setup.

The attack on the Lal Masjid was the first shot fired in this battle, and its reverberations soon spread to the Swat Valley, South Waziristan and then Bajaur Agency, in effect turning the whole of NWFP into a war theater. A series of military operations in the tribal areas drove the militants from stand-alone sanctuaries into population centers.

In Malakand, which includes the Swat area, the militants are a part of the Pakistan Tehrik-i-Taliban and the vanguard of the Taliban's cause in the region against Western occupation forces in Afghanistan and their ally - Pakistan. They have established their own writ with a parallel system that includes courts, police and even a electric power-distribution network and road construction, and all this is now official in the eyes of Islamabad.

All intelligence indicated that further concentration on military operations in Swat could lead to an expansion of the war theater into Pakistan's non-Pashtun cities, such as Islamabad, Lahore and Karachi. The security forces were already stretched and even faced rebellions.

These combined factors culminated in Monday's peace agreement, which is a major defeat for Washington as well as Pakistan, and it could also lead to a major setback for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in Afghanistan come spring when hordes of better-trained fighters from Swat pour into Afghanistan.

The Taliban defeat American interests

To tame the militancy, Washington and London devised a plan in 2007, one aspect of which was for the military to take on the militants. At the same time, Pakistan was to move from a military dictatorship under president general Pervez Musharraf to a political government.

This happened in the beginning of last year with the formation of a democratically elected coalition government of secular and liberal parties involving among others the Pakistan People's Party, the Muttehida Quami Movement, the Pashtun sub-nationalist Awami National Party (ANP), the Jamiat-i-Ulema-i-Islam and the Pakistan Muslim League-Qaid-i-Azam. It was envisaged that these parties would fully back the US's "war on terror".

Earlier, Washington had brokered a deal between former premier Benazir Bhutto and Musharraf, who was also chief of army staff, under which a National Reconciliation Ordinance was enacted to have all corruption cases against Bhutto and her spouse Asif Ali Zardari dropped. Under this arrangement, later, NWFP was handed over to the ANP, recognized as the most genuine secular political party.

The militants were onto the game. The first shot was the assassination of Bhutto by al-Qaeda in December 2007, which practically turned the whole American plan on its head and created a situation in which Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, an anti-Musharraf party, secured an unprecedented number of seats in parliament, leaving no option but for Musharraf, the most important American ally, to resign. But in time, the secular and liberal political parties in the capital became hostage to the militants.

Another setback for the pro-American forces was the brazen militant attack late last year on Asfandyar Wali, the leader of the ANP, at his home about 20 kilometers from the NWFP capital, Peshawar. He then fled first to Islamabad and later to Europe. Asfandyar had been groomed by the US through many visits to the US.

Asfandyar's departure resulted in half the leadership of the ANP, including the head of their foreign relations committee, Dr Himayun Khan, resigning. Their departure was hastened by dire threats from the Taliban. It was only a matter of time before the ANP's influence in NWFP was severely eroded.

Ironically, the ANP, which sided with the Soviets against the Islamic Afghan resistance in the 1980s and put up fierce resistance to the enactment of Islamic laws in the country, has now become the main engine for the enforcement of sharia in NWFP where it technically rules.

On Tuesday, while Asfandyar has chosen to remain silent, his nephew and the chief minister of the province, Hoti, warned the federal government that any obstruction of the deal with the militants would be unacceptable.

Meanwhile, all schools in Swat, including girls' schools, were opened on Tuesday and thousands of people flocked to a cricket stadium to greet Sufi Mohammad, who will soon travel to Matta, a sub-district of Swat, to visit his son-in-law Mullah Fazlullah to try to persuade him to end the insurgency. For the first time in many months, all members of the provincial and federal parliament will visit the Swat Valley.

Pakistan's failure: How it tackled the militancy

During Musharraf's eight years in power, Pakistan was on board with both the US and Saudi Arabia over the "war on terror". This ensured that Pakistan received a steady supply of all sorts of resources, including deferment on oil payments from Saudi Arabia and special aid packages when Pakistan was badly hit by an earthquake in 2005. Washington mostly looked after Pakistan’s military aid packages and reimbursement of expenses incurred in the "war on terror".

A few steps taken by Zardari, however, crumbled the setup like a house of cards. Immediately after taking over as president last September, in a very high-handed manner, Pakistan withdrew the hunting privileges of two Saudi princes located in the district of Dera Ghazi Khan in southern Punjab. To add salt to the wound, the facility was given to a rival sheikh from the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

The action was taken at a time when Pakistan badly needed Saudi oil on deferred terms due to soaring prices, and the UAE was in no position to fill the gap. Islamabad now enjoys very good relations with the UAE - which is unable to help Pakistan - due to the family friendship between the Bhutto family and the UAE's rulers. But Pakistan's relations with Saudi Arabia and its two major allies - Qatar and Bahrain - are at an all-time low because of the insult to the Saudi royal family. (The issue of Zardari's Shi'ite background is a secondary factor.)

Asia Times Online has learned that the newly installed US envoy for Pakistan and Afghanistan, Richard Holbrooke, was impressed in recent talks with the government to learn that chief of army staff General Ashfaq Parvez Kiani works fully in coordination with the political government and does not intervene in its affairs. The Swat operation is an example: the military immediately stopped action when the government announced the peace deal with the militants. All the same, the Pentagon will be waiting to receive Kiani in Washington soon to discuss why the Pakistan army failed in Swat.

However, Holbrooke was apparently concerned when he interacted with Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gillani and members of the cabinet. Gillani expressed his fears that the poor economic situation in Pakistan could hamper its efforts in the "war on terror".

Holbrooke is said to have asked the premier how much money he would need to revive the economy. "As much as we can get," the premier replied, without giving specifics.

The dynamics of the region have changed once again. Nizam-i-Adal Regulation 2009, which proclaims the enforcement of sharia law in Malakand division, is indeed a written document of Pakistan's defeat in the American-inspired war in NWFP.

Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief.
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New German Envoy to Afghanistan Plans First Visit to Region
Deutsche Welle, Germany 18.02.2009
The new German special envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan, Bernd Muetzelburg, is expected in Washington for initial discussions ahead of his first trip to the crisis region next week.

The former ambassador to India, who was appointed on Monday as a special Foreign Ministry envoy, will meet his US counterpart Richard Holbrooke to discuss international strategy issues, the German Foreign Ministry confirmed on Wednesday.

During his trip to the US he also plans to visit the UN headquarters in New York.

Following these meetings, Muetzelburg is expected to travel to Afghanistan and Pakistan next week, to learn for himself about the situation on the ground.

Germany has the third largest troop deployment under the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan.

Germany to send more soldiers

In addition to the 3,500 troops stationed in the region, NATO diplomats announced on Monday that Berlin was to send another 600 troops to Afghanistan, to provide additional safety ahead of the August presidential elections.

The election in August will be a key test for Afghan President Harmid Karzai, who has become increasingly unpopular in the country due to widespread corruption. Once a darling of the west, Karzai has also watched his support weaken there.

His central government is seen as weak and he has been unsuccessful in countering a growing Taliban insurgency or curbing opium production.

German Defense Minister Franz Josef Jung is expected to present Berlin's plans for the deployment during a meeting of NATO defense ministers in Krakow on Thursday.

US leading the way

President Barack Obama announced on Tuesday he had signed orders to send the 17,000 additional troops as part of his initial plan to expand the US presence in Afghanistan to counter a resurgent Taliban, which has used sanctuary regions in Pakistan to carry out attacks against coalition and Afghan forces.

The extra troops will be operational by this summer, the top commander of US and NATO forces in the country said on Wednesday.

But General David McKiernan also told reporters that despite the buildup, the destabilizing and violent situation in Afghanistan is unlikely to be quickly reversed.

"I have to tell you that 2009 is going to be a tough year," McKiernan told reporters at the Pentagon, adding that he expects fighting to increase in the summer.

Fighting in southern Afghanistan, where it has been the heaviest, has produced a stalemate and it remains crucial to get soldiers in unprotected areas, McKiernan said.

"We need additional, persistent security presence in areas that we're not at today," McKiernan said. "And then, in turn, the intent is that that would allow governance and other programs that will enable the population to resist an insurgency in the future."

The 17,000 troop increase will widen the US presence to more than 50,000.
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Roadside bomb kills one, injuries 2 in E Afghanistan
Xinhua February 19, 2009
A bomb planted by insurgents struck the car of an Indian engineer in Khost province east of Afghanistan Thursday, killing a local guard and wounding two others including the engineer, police said.

"The gruesome incident occurred in Dumanda district on Khost--Gerdez highway at 12:30 p.m. local time, as a result the Indian engineer along with one of his guards were injured and another guard was killed," provincial police chief Abdul Qayum Baqizoi told Xinhua.

He further added that the Indian engineer works for a road construction company involved in building roads in east Afghanistan.

The police officer blamed the enemies of peace, a term used against Taliban insurgents, for the incident.

Taliban outfit has yet to make comment.
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Russian flour reaches Afghanistan under new aid program
KABUL, February 19 (RIA Novosti) - A total of 25 rail cars loaded with high-quality Russian flour have already arrived in the Afghan city of Hairaton, an economic and trade advisor to the Russian Embassy in Afghanistan said on Thursday.

The deliveries of food to Afghanistan, where about 300 people have recently died of hunger and cold during an unusually severe winter, were set up by the UN World Food Program. Russia is one of the program's leading donors.

"As many as 25 rail cars with Russian flour have arrived in Hairaton via Uzbekistan and 21 of them have been unloaded. A total of 1,500 tons of flour has already been shipped to Afghanistan," Georgy Mishin said.

Mishin said that a total of 147 rail cars loaded with flour had been dispatched from Russia and 40 of them were currently on the territory of Uzbekistan.

Russia's Foreign Ministry earlier said that Moscow would send a total of 17,900 tons of flour to Afghanistan this February.

"The latest humanitarian aid is intended to help the Afghan government overcome the unfavorable situation as regards food supplies," the Foreign Ministry said on its website.

Since 2002, Russia has delivered humanitarian aid worth over $40 million to Afghanistan. In January 2008 Russia sent 3,100 tons of wheat flour to the country.
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Kyrgyzstan to vote on key US base
19 February 2009 BBC News
Kyrgyzstan's parliament is due to vote on whether to close a strategic US air base that supports US and Nato operations in Afghanistan.

President Kurmanbek Bakiyev announced the closure plan of the Manas base earlier this month in Moscow, where he was promised Russian aid.

Bishkek denies any link between the move to shut the base and Moscow's aid.

The US have since held talks with other Central Asian nations, trying to secure new supply routes into Afghanistan.

Kyrgyz MPs had been due to start debating the closure on 5 February, but the vote was postponed.

Analysts say the Kyrgyz authorities delayed the vote to make sure Moscow delivers its promises of granting $2bn (£1.4bn) in aid.

If the closure of Manas is approved, the US would have 180 days to leave the base.

Tashkent talks

Washington has intensified talks with other countries in the region, following President Bakiyev's announcement.

On Tuesday, the US commander for the Middle East and Central Asia, General David Petraeus, held talks in Uzbekistan, which has rail links with Afghanistan.

The US has already reached deals with Russia and Kazakhstan to send non-military cargo to Afghanistan using their rail networks, but the supplies would have to go through Uzbekistan.

The US used to have an air base in Uzbekistan that served troops operating in Afghanistan.

But Uzbek authorities closed it in 2005 after criticism from the US and EU over a crackdown on a mass protest in the town of Andijan.
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'Poor progress' on Afghanistan opium
By Jack Doyle Press Association Thursday, 19 February 2009
The lack of security in Afghanistan is "severely hampering" efforts to tackle opium production, a drugs monitoring body warned today.

The International Narcotics Control Board criticised the "poor progress" made in stopping farmers growing poppy plants which are used to make heroin.

Cannabis is becoming a more popular crop for Afghan farmers, the INCB said in its annual report.

It stated: "Farmers have been switching from opium poppy cultivation to cannabis cultivation, as cannabis cultivation is becoming increasingly lucrative in Afghanistan and no action has been taken by the government to prevent such cultivation."

The report calls on the international community to do more to encourage development and discourage farmers from cultivating illegal drugs.

Afghanistan produces around 90 per cent of the world's opium crop. Last year the area being used to grow opium fell but total production increased to near record levels.
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Perils of an Afghan bus journey
By Bilal Sarwary BBC News, northern Afghanistan Wednesday, 18 February 2009
On a dark winter morning in northern Afghanistan, Mohammad Hassan is about to drive his 12-seat van from Kunduz to Pol-e Khomri.

He does not have to worry about the Taleban and al-Qaeda militants who lie in wait on roads in the south and east, but Mr Hassan faces an obstacle that can be no less deadly.

Bands of armed thieves regularly mug passengers and threaten drivers in this area.

"They normally come out after 5am. They once stopped my vehicle and took money, cell phones and beat me for not stopping my vehicle," the 42-year-old says.

'Promises'

Before Mr Hassan starts the engine, his passengers utter a simple prayer for the journey ahead.

They include a local mullah, a tradesman, a police officer and several women with young children.

The passengers look on blankly as we pass the corroding carcasses of Soviet-era tanks and other military vehicles.

Little wonder that Afghanistan has been called the graveyard of empires.

Conversation among the passengers keeps returning to the most pressing of concerns - security.

For the first time in seven years, the Taleban have begun to make their presence felt on the fringes of the northern provinces, targeting Afghan and international forces.

Despite all the setbacks, hope among the passengers still persists.

"Afghanistan is a very different country. Today we have roads, police, army and the world is here. Under the Taleban we had none and we were going 100 years back," says Mohammad Khalid, 69, from Imam district in Kunduz province.

Everyone agrees that Afghanistan is better off without the Taleban, but progress remains painfully slow.

"During the election, [President] Karzai promised a lot of things. He said 'I will bring you security, roads and Afghanistan will be corruption-free' - but he hasn't remained true to his campaign promises," adds another passenger.

'Bribes'

When the van stops to pick up its 13th passenger, a young Afghan policeman, we all shuffle closer together to make room.

Back on the road, Mohammad Hassan soon complains about corrupt policemen.

The policeman responds pointedly: "I am not saying all police are angels, but there are good people. I don't take bribes.

"If the government paid us more money and gave us more resources why should we ask for bribes? It's necessity that drives people to corruption."

Some of the older passengers intervene and the brief verbal clash gives way to a tense silence.

Visibly angry, Mohammad Hassan flicks on the radio, allowing music to chase away the awkwardness of the moment.

Outside, the view is breathtaking as the road stretches through a scarred and jagged landscape dominated by white peaks.

After an hour, one passenger breaks the silence to declare proudly that a journey which used to take five hours now takes two.

We pass roadside adverts promoting the latest deals in phone packages and cooking oil. Some depict women waiving registration cards for presidential elections due later this year, while others urge young Afghans to join the police and army.

Near the old town of Baghlan, several police checkposts force all vehicles to stop. After a five-minute security search and brief round of questions, the police officer waves us on.

Mohammad Hassan thinks the new check posts are "really effective".

"Thieves and robbers are scared. But they sometimes still come out during the night and rob people."

A senior official in Kunduz told me the checkposts were aimed at gathering intelligence about the gangs of robbers.

But he complained the authorities could do with more personnel and equipment to police the road, which links Kabul with northern provinces and Tajikistan.

Avalanches

Before long, Mohammad Hassan is telling us to collect our belongings: "We will be arriving in Pol-e Khomri city shortly."

Along with everyone else, I clamber out of the vehicle, and briefly stretch my legs before hopping on to a second van to Kabul.

Three hours later, we arrive in northern Salang, a mountainous valley deep in snow.

A series of avalanches have blocked the road through the pass ahead and our van is stuck behind a long line of buses, trucks and other vehicles.

We have no choice but to spend the night in the village of Malkhan.

The local hotel is tremendously overcrowded - 10 people are crammed into one room with just a small fireplace to warm us.

Traffic policemen wake us early - the road is now passable and passengers and drivers race for their vehicles.

When we reach southern Salang, we come face to face with the destruction of the night before.

Several vehicles are upside down, some half-buried in snow. A number of people lie by the roadside, victims of an unexpected avalanche.

Our convoy creeps onwards through the muffled white terrain.

The passengers are hardly speaking now. It is as if we have become silent spectators to our own fate - there is no telling when the next avalanche will be, or what lies around the next bend.

Not only do Afghans fall victim to suicide attacks and roadside bombs, but they are harassed by robbers and crushed by the weight of avalanches.

My fellow passengers, however, remain remarkably unphased.

As one they erupt into a jubilant chorus, and I find my voice among them: "The road is open! The road is open!"
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Plight of child labourers on Pakistani border
TORKHAM, 19 February 2009 (IRIN) - Sahib Jan, 10, steers his way through crowds of people with a wheelbarrow overloaded with sacks of 20kg wheat flour in the Torkham border town connecting the eastern Afghan province of Nangarhar to Pakistan’s North West Frontier Province.

Every day, from 7am to 4pm, he moves all kinds of goods across the semi-open border to earn 200-300 Afghanis (less than US$6).

“I am working to feed my family,” he said, adding that his father was ill and unable to work. “The police often beat me and I feel pain in my back and legs at nights.”

About 1,000-1,600 children, aged from eight to 17, are involved in wage labour in the Torkham border area, according to aid agencies and provincial authorities.

Most are prone to physical, psychological and sexual violence, aid workers say.

“Many of these children do not attend school and most of them do not have access to medical care, drinking water and other essential services,” Mirwais Ahmadzai, head of Nangarhar’s human rights department, told IRIN.

Hired for smuggling

For decades the 2,400km-long porous border between Afghanistan and Pakistan has remained volatile and difficult to control, in turn promoting the smuggling of all kinds of goods, movement of terrorist groups and other illegal activities.

Officials in both countries concede that Taliban insurgents freely cross the border while criminal networks smuggle arms and narcotics.

The hike in food prices in 2007 prompted the Pakistani government to impose a strict ban on wheat exports to Afghanistan, but the business has continued through smuggling networks using child labour.

“We carry sacks of wheat flour from the other [Pakistani] side of the border to Afghanistan through secret routes,” said Ramazan, 11.

The Torkham child labourers are also believed to be involved in smuggling arms and other illicit consignments.

Need for ‘fundamental work’

Agencies such as Terre des hommes (Tdh), the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) and Save the Children have helped reintegrate some 700 child labourers from Torkham with their families in Nangarhar and several nearby areas.

“Currently we have over 400 of these children at our educational centre in Torkham,” Saif-u-Rehman Momand of the Tdh in Nangarhar, told IRIN.

Agencies talked about medical, educational and other kinds of assistance for the children, but several child labourers and the head of the human rights department said there was little meaningful support available.

“Most aid agencies talk eloquently about assistance, but in reality one can hardly find any fundamental work done for the benefit of these children,” Ahmadzai of the human rights department said.

“Fundamental work means sustainable poverty alleviation, creating development opportunities for children and also improving the living conditions of vulnerable families,” he said.

Aid workers say it is very difficult to properly monitor the situation of child labourers in the border area because they regularly move back and forth in two countries.

About 40 of Afghanistan’s estimated 27 million people are under 15 and about 31 percent of them are involved in child labour, according to the Central Statistics Office and UNICEF.
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Afghan Mps: Dr. Spanta is Illegitimate Foreign Minister
Written by www.quqnoos.com Wednesday, 18 February 2009
Maintaining his position as a foreign minister as a big disrespect to the Afghan parliament

According to Afghan parliament, the Afghan foreign minister Dr.Rangeen Dadfar Spanta is not considered to be the legitimate Afghan foreign minister.

The Members of Parliament (MPs) said that the parliament has given him the no-confidence vote, therefore the treaties and decisions that Dr.Rangeen Dadfar Spanta signed are invalid.

It is also against Afghans determination.

In today's meeting the Afghan MPs emphasized that Dr. Rangeen Dadfar Spanta's trips and treaties is a big disrespect to the Afghan parliament and it also creates a big obstacle for application of the rule of law in the country.

Meanwhile the ministry of foreign affairs beholds the MPs statements as a personal Opinion and says this problem has been solved by the supreme court of Afghanistan.

Two years ago the Afghan parliament gave no-confidence vote to Dr. Rangeen Dadfar Spanta.
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