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Obama sending 17,000 troops to Afghanistan
by Daphne Benoit February 18, 2009
WASHINGTON (AFP) – President Barack Obama approved the deployment of 17,000 more US troops to Afghanistan, a surge in numbers promptly welcomed by the Kabul government Wednesday as it battles a Taliban insurgency.
US general visits Afghan bomb site for death claim
By Jason Straziuso Associated Press February 18, 2009
KABUL – A U.S. general traveled to western Afghanistan on Wednesday to investigate claims that six women and two children were killed in a U.S. airstrike, officials said. Photographs of the site showed at least one dead boy, bloodied and dirty from the attack.
Afghan Government Rejects Vice President's Interim Government Idea
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty February 18, 2009
KABUL -- The Afghan government said the idea of installing an interim government until the August presidential election would be unconstitutional, RFE/RL's Radio Free Afghanistan reports.
Why the US bugged Pakistan Army generals
The News Monday, February 16, 2009
ISLAMABAD - A new book by a New York Times journalist has levelled serious allegations against Pakistan and its Army
Karzai, Obama Discuss Security
By VOA News 18 February 2009
The office of Afghan President Hamid Karzai says he and U.S. President Barack Obama spoke late Tuesday for the first time since the U.S. president took office four weeks ago.
Afghan president to visit Pakistan on Thursday
ISLAMABAD, Feb. 18 (Xinhua) -- Afghan President Hamid Karzai will pay a short official visit to Pakistan on Thursday, the Foreign Office said Wednesday.
Afghanistan can become Obama's Vietnam if he emulates Russians: Bill Clinton
18 Feb 2009, 1535 hrs IST, PTI
WASHINGTON: If the US president attempts to do what the British and the Russians did in the past, then Afghanistan could become 'Barack Obama's
Geography professor claims to have found Osama bin Laden
A Californian geography professor has used techniques for hunting endangered species to pinpoint three houses in Pakistan where Osama bin Laden could be hiding.
Telegraph.co.uk By Ben Farmer 17 Feb 2009
Kabul - Using patterns of how animal species spread, the world's most wanted terrorist can be tracked down to a town in the tribal region of North West Pakistan it is claimed.
Osama most likely hiding in Pakistan: new scientific study
Washington, Feb 17 (PTI) The world's most wanted terrorist Osama bin Laden could be hiding out in a walled compound in Parachinar, a town along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, according to a unique satellite-aided geographic analysis released today.
Taliban plan to target India: Sources
The Times of India 18 Feb 2009, 0610 hrs IST
NEW DELHI: After Pakistan agreed to enforce Islamic law in large areas of its restive North West Frontier Province (NWFP), including Swat Valley,
In Brief: Food distribution tragedy in northern Afghanistan
KABUL, 18 February 2009 (IRIN) - A food aid distribution in the Balkhab District of Sare Pol Province, northern Afghanistan, led to the death of one person and four people injured, according to the provincial head of the Afghan Red Crescent Society.
New route links Afghanistan to sea, via Iran
San Francisco Chronicle, USA Matthew B. Stannard Tuesday, February 17, 2009
As President Obama's foreign policy team tries to make lemonade out of the diplomatic lemons it has inherited around the world, one region could represent low-hanging fruit: the Khyber Pass linking Pakistan with Afghanistan.
Mini-surge to test out US strategy in Afghanistan
Some 3,000 US troops recently deployed to insurgent-heavy provinces near Kabul.
Christian Science Monitor, MA By Anand Gopal 18 February 2009
Maydan Shahr, Afghanistan - The 3,000 new American troops who arrived in recent weeks in Logar and Wardak provinces, both of which border Kabul, face a formidable challenge: establishing
Militants set on fire school, clinic in E Afghanistan
KHOST, Afghanistan, Feb. 18 (Xinhua) -- Taliban-led insurgents fighting the Afghan government set on fire a school and one clinic in eastern Afghanistan, officials said Wednesday.
A Terrain's Tragic Shift
Researcher's Death Intensifies Scrutiny Of U.S. Cultural Program in Afghanistan
By Pamela Constable Washington Post Wednesday, February 18, 2009; C01
With its mud-walled houses and narrow lanes, Chehel Gazi looked like a hundred other dusty villages that Paula Loyd had visited in southern Afghanistan over the years. She greeted villagers with the same forthright,
As more Afghan civilians die, so does trust of U.S. forces
Backlash brews, threatening to undermine U.S. mission in Afghanistan
Chicago Tribune By Kim Barker February 18, 2009
OUTSIDE MEHTARLAM, Afghanistan - Ghazi Gul keeps the pictures of the dead in a pocket near his heart— his father, two brothers, a cousin, a nephew.
Drug abuse hampers Afghan police
By Martin Patience 18 February 2009 BBC News
Kabul - Sixty per cent of the Afghan police in the country's southern province of Helmand use drugs, it is claimed.
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Obama sending 17,000 troops to Afghanistan
by Daphne Benoit February 18, 2009
WASHINGTON (AFP) – President Barack Obama approved the deployment of 17,000 more US troops to Afghanistan, a surge in numbers promptly welcomed by the Kabul government Wednesday as it battles a Taliban insurgency.
Stressing that "the situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan demands urgent attention and swift action," President Obama ordered the deployments in response to a standing request by the US commander in Afghanistan, General David McKiernan, who had asked for 30,000 more troops.
"This increase is necessary to stabilize a deteriorating situation in Afghanistan, which has not received the strategic attention, direction and resources it urgently requires," Obama said in a statement Tuesday.
The president said he had approved a request by Defense Secretary Robert Gates to deploy a Marine Expeditionary Brigade in the spring, and an Army Stryker Brigade and support forces later this summer.
The White House said the troops would be deployed to Afghanistan ahead of Afghan elections scheduled for August 20, significantly building up the 38,000-strong US force already on the ground battling a growing insurgency.
A senior administration official told AFP the deployments were unlikely to come before an ongoing review of US strategy in Afghanistan and Pakistan was completed ahead of a NATO summit in April.
"The thinking is that this was necessary at this time because of the expected increase of fighting in the spring and the upcoming elections," the official said on condition of anonymity.
As the security situation in Iraq has improved, the US has increasingly shifted its focus to Afghanistan and reduced the number of its troops in Iraq.
The US-backed government in Kabul has come under intense pressure as the insurgency led by Taliban and Al-Qadea Islamic militants has gained strength and spread from the country's east and south into parts of the west and areas around the capital.
The Afghan government welcomed Obama's decision. "It's a positive move," Afghan defence ministry spokesman Mohammad Is'haq Payman told AFP.
"But we have our own conditions. We want these troops to be deployed in areas where they could play a positive role in suppressing terrorists," he said.
Prominent lawmaker Shukria Barakzai said the reinforcements should be sent to the border with Pakistan to stop militant infiltrations.
But security depends on more than just military efforts, she said, citing the need to improve development in impoverished Afghanistan and diplomatic efforts to persuade the Taliban to lay down their arms.
"Military force alone is not enough," Barakzai said. "If these troops come without coordinating their efforts with development and diplomacy, the situation would not change."
Last year saw the deadliest Taliban violence, including suicide attacks, assassinations of officials and ambushes on Afghan and international troops.
"The Taliban is resurgent in Afghanistan, and Al-Qaeda supports the insurgency and threatens America from its safe haven along the Pakistani border," Obama warned.
The Pentagon said Gates had ordered the deployment of two additional combat units totaling more than 12,000 troops, with Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman indicating they would be deployed in the violence-plagued south.
Some 5,000 support troops would receive deployment orders at a later date.
Under the orders, some 8,000 Marines will deploy to Afghanistan in late spring 2009, and about 4,000 US Army soldiers would deploy in mid-summer, the Pentagon said.
Obama indicated that the units had initially been earmarked for Iraq, saying the drawdown of US forces there "allows us the flexibility to increase our presence in Afghanistan."
Obama ordered the comprehensive review amid growing alarm about mounting Islamic extremism in the region seven years after the United States launched its "war on terror" and ousted Afghanistan's Taliban regime.
Senator John McCain, Obama's rival for the US presidency in last year's election, welcomed the troop move but expressed hope that it was "just the first step in a new comprehensive approach to Afghanistan."
"A major change in course is long overdue," he said.
US intelligence has warned that endemic corruption in Afghanistan and the government's inability to deliver services and protect the population has eroded its legitimacy.
Washington has grappled with rising tensions with Kabul over civilian casualties in military operations against insurgents.
On Monday a US-led air strike in western Afghanistan killed up to 15 militants, the US military said, but on Wednesday Afghan police said the strike killed six women and two children in addition to eight men.
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US general visits Afghan bomb site for death claim
By Jason Straziuso Associated Press February 18, 2009
KABUL – A U.S. general traveled to western Afghanistan on Wednesday to investigate claims that six women and two children were killed in a U.S. airstrike, officials said. Photographs of the site showed at least one dead boy, bloodied and dirty from the attack.
The Afghan Ministry of Defense condemned the killings of civilians and said they occurred despite a recent U.S.-Afghan agreement to increase participation of Afghan forces in U.S. missions, a step aimed at preventing civilian casualties.
The U.S. coalition said in a statement that a strike Monday in the Gozara district of Herat province killed 15 militants and targeted a leader named Ghulam Yahya Akbari.
But Ekremuddin Yawar, a police commander for western Afghanistan, said six women and two children were among the dead, along with five men. He said the group was living in tents in the remote Afghan countryside.
Photographs obtained by The Associated Press from the site show the body of a young boy — bloodied and dirtied — laying on a white shroud. Afghan men can be seen digging about a dozen fresh graves. Dead sheep and destroyed tents can also be seen.
Civilian deaths have been a huge source of friction between the U.S. and President Hamid Karzai, who has increased demands that American troops avoid killing civilians.
In response to Yawar's allegation, U.S. Brig. Gen. Michael Ryan traveled to Gozara district on Wednesday to meet with officials "to see what the situation is," said Capt. Elizabeth Mathias, a U.S. military spokeswoman.
For now, the U.S. is standing behind its information that 15 militants were killed, she said.
The Ministry of Defense said seven militants were killed in the attack, including three people it named as associates of Yahya Akbari. Neither it nor the U.S. said Yahya Akbari was killed.
The ministry said the militants had hidden in civilian houses, causing an unspecified number of civilian deaths. However, the photographs showed no homes — only tents — and it wasn't clear what the ministry was referring to.
An ethnic group of Afghans known as Kuchis travel the countryside with livestock and live in tents.
After increasingly angry demands by Karzai for more U.S.-Afghan military cooperation, the American and Afghan militaries this month announced plans to increase the number of Afghans who will take part in U.S. operations.
Despite condemning the civilian deaths, the ministry noted it would take more time to implement the agreement. But it urged U.S. forces to "be very careful during their operations."
The investigative team's trip to Herat comes one day after the U.N. released a report saying that a record 2,118 civilians died in the Afghan war last year, a 40 percent increase over 2007.
The report said U.S., NATO and Afghan forces killed 829 civilians, or 39 percent of the total. Of those, 552 deaths were blamed on airstrikes.
Karzai over the weekend said he hoped the new agreement would also put an end to night raids — targeted missions by U.S. Special Operations Forces that seek to capture or kill high-ranking militant leaders.
Such operations often kill innocent Afghans as well, either in airstrikes or in gun fights after villagers try to defend their homes against unknown invaders.
President Barack Obama on Tuesday announced plans to deploy an additional 17,000 U.S. troops to Afghanistan to bolster the 33,000 American forces already in the country. That plan increases the chances that more civilians could be killed in 2009 than 2008.
U.S. commanders have requested more troops to battle an increasingly bloody Taliban insurgency. Militant attacks have spiked in the last three years and insurgents now control wide swaths of territory. Obama has promised to increase the U.S. focus on Afghanistan as the military draws down troops in Iraq.
(This version CORRECTS that the coalition statement said Yahya Akbari was targeted, not killed.))
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Afghan Government Rejects Vice President's Interim Government Idea
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty February 18, 2009
KABUL -- The Afghan government said the idea of installing an interim government until the August presidential election would be unconstitutional, RFE/RL's Radio Free Afghanistan reports.
Presidential spokesman Humayun Hamidzada said that the suggestion, which was made by Afghan Vice President Ahmad Zia Mas'ud, would be unlawful.
Hamidzada said that there is no constitutional provision for an interim government after President Hamid Karzai's term ends in June.
Mas'ud told Radio Free Afghanistan that the government is weak and unable to solve Afghanistan's problems. He proposed an interim government be installed until the presidential election.
Mas'ud describes himself as a symbolic vice president, adding that Karzai controls all affairs and leaves little authority for his vice president.
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Why the US bugged Pakistan Army generals
The News Monday, February 16, 2009
ISLAMABAD - A new book by a New York Times journalist has levelled serious allegations against Pakistan and its Army claiming the telephones of all senior officers, including the COAS General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani were bugged by Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and National Security Agency (NSA), the main eavesdropping US agencies around the world.
The book written by David E Sanger, which has hit the stands a few days back, claims that the American intelligence agencies were intercepting telephonic conversations of Army officers and the decision to attack Pakistan through drones was taken after one such high level conversation was intercepted claiming the Taliban as a "strategic asset" for Pakistan.
The book, titled "The Inheritance: The World Obama Confronts and the challenges to American power" claims the decision to invade Pakistani territories was taken after the CIA reached a conclusion that the ISI was absolutely in complete coordination with the Taliban.
The NSA intercepted messages indicating that ISI officers were helping the Taliban in planning a big bombing attack in Afghanistan although the target was unclear. After some days, the Kandahar Jail was attacked by the Taliban and hundreds of Taliban were freed, it says.
General Kayani would be the second army chief of Pakistan whose conversations have been bugged by the Americans, if the allegations in the book are true. Earlier the FBI had intercepted the telephone conversation between President Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto when Musharraf had threatened her that her safety within Pakistan depended upon her nature of relationship with him (Musharraf). The Indians had also recorded a telephone conversation between General Musharraf and General Aziz when Musharraf was in Beijing during the Kargil war days.
The author who seemed to have been given direct access to the secret record of several meetings held at the White House before George Bush left the presidency on January 20, has made several revelations in his book.
The book has also disclosed that NSA was already picking up interceptions, as the units of Pakistan army were getting ready to hit a school in the tribal areas. Someone was giving advance warning of what was coming. The book said they must have dialed 1-800-HAQQANI, said one person who was familiar with the intercepted conversation.
According to another para, the account of the warning sent to the school was almost comical. "It was something like that "Hey, we are going to hit your place in a few days, so if anyone important is there, you might want to tell them to scream".
The book also establishes that the Americans were in full knowledge of the facts on the ground and they started attacking territories inside Pakistan as they thought the Pakistan army and intelligence agencies were no more interested in fighting the Taliban.
In chapter 8 of the book on Pakistan "Crossing the Line", the author has also revealed that how an angry two star army officer of Pakistan army had actually unfolded the whole secret plan of Pakistan army deliberately before a US spy master McConell.
The book said, the US intelligence agencies knew very well that Musharraf was playing a double game with them as on the one hand he was assuring the Americans that only he could fight against the Taliban and on the other, he was backing the militancy and the militants. "Musharraf's record of duplicity was well known.
The author has written this chapter on Pakistan on basis of some secret trips of America's twwo top spy chiefs-McConnel an Haden-nicknamed as "two Mikes" who had held several meetings with the top military army officers including General Pervez Musharraf.
The author records that in late May 2008, McConnel made a secret trip to Pakistan, his fourth or fifth since becoming the director of national intelligence, trips that seemed to blur together in his head.
But this one was dramatically different from the rest- and ended up driving the push in the last days of the Bush administration to greatly step up covert action across the border into Pakistan.
The book says, packing quickly through his usual rounds of meetings with Musharraf and a raft of intelligence officials in Islamabad, McConnel and his small entourage found themselves in a conference room with several military officers, including a two star Pakistan general.
No officer was talking to other participants in the meeting as if the American intelligence chief, the visiting dignitary for the day, wasn't in the room. Not surprisingly, he was being pressed about Pakistan strategy in the tribal areas, and he was "reluctant to start" one of the participants in the conversation recalled.
"But once he got into it, he could not contain himself". The two-star general began making the case that the real problem was the tribal areas and in Afghanistan was not al-Qaeda or the Taliban, or even the militants who were trying to topple the Pakistani government. The real problem was Pakistan's rival of more than sixty years which he said was secretly manipulating events in an effort to crush Pakistan and undo the 1947 partition that sought to separate the Islamic and Hindu states.
"The overwhelming enemy is India", the Pakistani officer told the General. "We have to watch them at every moment. We have had wars with India, he said as everyone in the room needed reminding."
The Pakistani two-star general described President Karzai's cozy relationship with India, seeking investment and aid. With alarm, he talked about how the Indians were opening consulates around the country and building roads. What the rest of the world saw as a desperately needed nation-building programme, Pakistan saw as a threat. He was not alone in that view, conspiracy theories about Indian activities in Afghanistan are a daily staple in the Pakistani media. As the officer talked, he became more and more animated. The Indians will surround us and annihilate us, he said, knowing McConnel was hearing every word. "And the Indians in their surrounding strategy, have gone to Afghanistan." Those newly built roads were future invasion routes, he seemed to suggest, without quite saying so.
The consulates were dens of Indian spies. The real purpose of the humanitarian aid to Afghanistan was to run "operations out of Afghanistan to target Pakistan".
The conspiracy theory deepened. "In the long run, America will not have the stomach to bear the burden of staying in Afghanistan," the officer continued, still seeming to ignore the presence of the American intelligence chief. "And when the Americans pull out, India will reign. Therefore, the Pakistanis will have to sustain the contacts with the opposition to the Afghanistan government meaning the Taliban so when the Americans pull out, it's a friendly government to Pakistan. "Therefore," the officer concluded with a flourish, "we must support the Taliban", two-star general announced in the meeting in the presence of US spymaster.
The last statement of the two star general stunned McConnel. For six years, the Americans had paid upward $10 billion to the Pakistan army to support its operations against al-Qaeda and the Taliban. Bush and his aides knew — though they never admitted that much of the money had been diverted to buying equipment for the Pakistan military to bulk up against the Indian. Now a Pakistani officer in his fury and frustration, was openly admitting that the Pakistani government had officially denied that it was playing both sides of the war—-the Americans side and Taliban side.
In return for the Americans billions, Pakistani forces or intelligence agencies operatives occasionally picked off a few al-Qaeda leaders (though even that had slowed to a trickle). But they were actively supporting the Taliban and even some militants in the tribal region. It was almost as if the American taxpayers were making monthly deposits in the Taliban bank accounts. Some in the Pentagon objected but were overruled.
None of this was really a surprise-except to the American people who were regularly told by President Bush that Pakistan and its leadership were a strong ally against terror. Even some of the Bush aides cringed when he uttered those words "it was like hearing him say, victory in Iraq", one told me after leaving the muddled complexity of it all was some kind of admission of defeat.
Even some inside the While House, admitted to me (author) that "reimbursements" to the Pakistani military were just this side of fraud. They had been paid out when Musharraf had announced he was pulling back from tribal areas because of a "truce" with the tribal leaders. When Congress threatened to link the reimbursement to the Pakistan military performance, one American general summarized this reaction this way: "It's about goddamn time".
Bush knew the truth. Intelligence reports written over the past five years have all documented the ISI support for Taliban-something Bush had admitted to me (author) and other reporters. He knew of course that even Musharraf had little interest in sending his army into tribal areas. Every military professional who returned from Islamabad came back with the same report. Seven years after 9/11, 80 per cent of Pakistan military was arrayed against India.
McConnel himself returning from one of his trips noted that there is only one army that has more artillery tubes per unit, everything from old cannons to rocket launchers and mortars. It's North Koreas', he said. It was a telling statistic. Artillery tubes weigh tonnes and are useful only in holding back Indian hordes as they come across the plains. They are useless against terrorists enclaves.
Overhearing the two-star's rant about India was not the only rude surprise McConnel experienced on this trip. He had brought with him the chart he used in the White House situation room tracking the number of attacks inside Pakistan over the past two and a half years.
One of the charts showed that about 13,000 Pakistanis had been killed in 2007 chiefly by suicide bombers, about double the numbers in 2006. He told Musharraf and General Kayani, the former DG ISI, that the casualty numbers on the track to double again in 2008. Then he described the interviews that Osama Bin laden and his deputies had given, declaring their intention to topple the Pakistan government.
"You are aware of these casualty numbers and what Osama said of course", McConnel asked. He got blank stares. They told him they had heard about Bin Laden statements.
"It was news", McConnel reported to his colleagues later. "I talked to the highest level of the Pakistani government and it was news. They just were not tracking it". It astounded him that the officials in Washington and at the American embassy in Islamabad might be keeping more careful tabs on the rising number of attacks than were Musahrraf or Pakistani crop of democratically elected leaders. Were they ignoring the obvious or were they just denying they knew about it, part of the deception within the deceptions as they supported both sides in the terror fight.
When McConnel returned to Washington in late 2008, he ordered up a full assessment so that he could match what he had heard from the single angry officer with the intelligence that had poured in over the years. His question was a basic one. Is there what McConnel called an officially sanctioned "dual policy" in Pakistan?" That was a polite way of asking whether the leadership of the country including Musahrraf had been playing both sides of the war all along.
It did not take long for McConnel's staff to produce the answer. McConnel took the formal assessment to the White House, concluding that the Pakistani government regularly gave the Taliban and some of the militant groups "weapons and supporters to go into Afghanistan to attack Afghan and coalition forces".
This was not news to many in the administration but McConnel wanted to have it down on paper. The assessment was circulated to the entire national security leadership and to Bush who was still giving public speeches praising Musharraf as a great ally.
"It was news to him," said one of the officials who briefed Bush and watched his reaction to McConnel's assessment. "And he always says the same thing, so what do you do about it?
By the summer, Bush answered his own question. For the first time in a presidency filled with secret unilateral actions, he authorized the American military to invade an ally-Pakistan.
Editor's Note: The ISPR has been requested for a detailed response and whenever available it would be given equal and similar space.
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Karzai, Obama Discuss Security
By VOA News 18 February 2009
The office of Afghan President Hamid Karzai says he and U.S. President Barack Obama spoke late Tuesday for the first time since the U.S. president took office four weeks ago.
The telephone conversation occurred the same day that Mr. Obama announced plans to send 17,000 additional U.S. troops to Afghanistan.
Mr. Karzai's office released a statement saying the two leaders discussed bilateral relations, a review of the war on terrorism policy, Afghanistan's upcoming presidential elections, and other issues.
U.S. Department of Defense officials Tuesday said 12,000 combat troops will be sent to Afghanistan in the coming months, and 5,000 support troops will follow.
Afghan Defense Ministry officials Wednesday welcomed the announcement. They said they want the U.S. troops to be deployed in especially insecure areas in the south and east.
The increase will bring the number of U.S. troops in Afghanistan to about 55,000.
The U.S. commander in Afghanistan, General David McKiernan, requested additional troops months ago to help battle the Taliban insurgency and establish security in Afghanistan.
Mr. Obama said the United States can meet the request now because of a drawdown of U.S. forces in Iraq.
The U.S. president said his decision to send more troops now will not "pre-determine" the outcome of an ongoing strategic review of the situation in Afghanistan. He also said he ordered the review because deteriorating security in Afghanistan has not received the "attention, direction and resources" that it requires.
In an interview earlier Tuesday with a correspondent from the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, Mr. Obama said a comprehensive strategy in Afghanistan needs to include diplomacy and development.
Some information for this report was provided by AFP and Reuters.
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Afghan president to visit Pakistan on Thursday
ISLAMABAD, Feb. 18 (Xinhua) -- Afghan President Hamid Karzai will pay a short official visit to Pakistan on Thursday, the Foreign Office said Wednesday.
Karzai will meet with his Pakistani counterpart Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Syed Yusuf Raza Gilani during his visit, said a statement released by the Foreign Office.
Pakistani President Zardari visited Kabul last month and had invited Karzai to visit Islamabad.
Karzai's visit came shortly after the special U.S. Representative to Afghanistan and Pakistan Richard Holbrooke concluded his visit to the two countries.
Holbrooke has visited the two countries as the United States is reviewing its policies towards Afghanistan and Pakistan.
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Afghanistan can become Obama's Vietnam if he emulates Russians: Bill Clinton
18 Feb 2009, 1535 hrs IST, PTI
WASHINGTON: If the US president attempts to do what the British and the Russians did in the past, then Afghanistan could become 'Barack Obama's
Vietnam', but it is unlikely to happen, former president Bill Clinton has said.
"If President Obama were to do what the British tried to do in the 19th century and literally control the country, or what the Russians did into the 1980s, trying to, have a puppet government and then send the whole Russian Army in there to fight, it could become Vietnam," Clinton told Larry King of the CNN in an interview.
"But I don't expect that to happen," Clinton said when asked if Afghanistan has the potential to become Obama's Vietnam. "In theory, it could happen. But I don't think so. I think what they mean is that Afghanistan has often been a sinkhole for other country's aspirations, that it is big, tough terrain, rugged people and impossible to control the borders," he said.
"He's (Obama) got perhaps our smartest General, Gen Petraeus, and our most successful diplomat in the modern era, Dick (Richard) Holbrooke, working together to craft a military and diplomatic strategy, strongly supported by (Secretary of State) Hillary (Clinton) and Secretary (of Defence Robert) Gates," Clinton said.
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Geography professor claims to have found Osama bin Laden
A Californian geography professor has used techniques for hunting endangered species to pinpoint three houses in Pakistan where Osama bin Laden could be hiding.
Telegraph.co.uk By Ben Farmer 17 Feb 2009
Kabul - Using patterns of how animal species spread, the world's most wanted terrorist can be tracked down to a town in the tribal region of North West Pakistan it is claimed.
By factoring in his need for security, electricity, high ceilings to accommodate his 6ft 4in frame and spare rooms for his bodyguards, the search can be further narrowed to three walled compounds.
According to a team led by Thomas Gillespie, at the University of California in Los Angeles, bin Laden's location is "one of the most important political questions of our time".
Mathematical models used to explain how animal species spread out say he should be close to where he was last spotted.
Their research published in MIT International Review also concluded he should also be in a large town with a similar culture to Afghanistan where he can remain largely anonymous.
The most likely candidate is in Parachinar, 12 miles inside Pakistan, which housed many mujahideen during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s.
Finally after looking at his need for electricity for dialysis, high walls, spare rooms for his entourage, and trees to hide from prying eyes, satellite pictures show just three suitable houses.
"We believe that our work involves the first scientific approach to establishing his current location" the research concludes.
"The methods are repeatable and can be updated with new information obtained from the US intelligence community."
Kim Rossmo of Texas State University, who has worked with the military to find terrorists told USA Today: "The idea of identifying three buildings in a city of half a million especially one in a country the authors have likely never visited is somewhat overconfident."
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Osama most likely hiding in Pakistan: new scientific study
Washington, Feb 17 (PTI) The world's most wanted terrorist Osama bin Laden could be hiding out in a walled compound in Parachinar, a town along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, according to a unique satellite-aided geographic analysis released today.
Basing their conclusion on night-time satellite images and other techniques, a research team led by geographer Thomas Gillespie suggest that the 52-year-old fugitive may well be in one of three compounds in Parachinar, a town 12 miles inside the Pakistan border, USA Today reported.
Gillespie of the University of California-Los Angeles and his team used geographic analytical tools that have been successful in locating urban criminals and endangered species.
The research incorporates public reports of bin Laden's habits and whereabouts since his flight from the Tora Bora region of Afghanistan in 2001.
The results, reported in the 'MIT International Review,' are being greeted with polite but skeptical interest among people involved in the global hunt for bin Laden, the al-Qaeda mastermind behind 9/11 attacks on the US, the report said.
Bin Laden's whereabouts are considered "one of the most important political questions of our time," the study notes.
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Taliban plan to target India: Sources
The Times of India 18 Feb 2009, 0610 hrs IST
NEW DELHI: After Pakistan agreed to enforce Islamic law in large areas of its restive North West Frontier Province (NWFP), including Swat Valley,
in a concession to buy peace in the region, intelligence sources on Tuesday confirmed the threat that Taliban actually pose to India which is not far from the Indian boundary.
Sources have revealed that the Taliban have plans to attack western cultural centres in Indian cities. However, no specific intelligence inputs on the nature of the threat, the specific target, the timing or the group have been received. In the view of current security situation prevailing in Pakistan, security has been increased in foreign mission and other places of interest of western countries in India.
United States on Monday said Taliban operating out of Pakistan pose a “common" threat to India and America besides the host country as New Delhi highlighted the grave danger to the world posed by terrorism emanating from there.
On his first visit to New Delhi to consult India on the situation in the region, the envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Richard Holbrooke, met External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee, National Security Adviser M K Narayanan and Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon in New Delhi.
During the meetings, the Indian side is understood to have told Holbrooke that terrorism operating out of Pakistan is posing a threat, not only to the region, but to the entire world. New Delhi underlined the need for the US and rest of the international community to realise this and take more steps to eradicate the threat, they said.
After the talks, Holbrooke told reporters that Taliban operating out of Pakistan are a "common" threat to India and the US, besides the host country. “For the first time in 60 years, your country, Pakistan and the US all face an enemy that poses direct threats to our leaderships, our capitals and our people," said Holbrooke who was here to "listen" to India's assessment of the situation in Pakistan and Afghanistan.
The Taliban movement is headed by Mullah Mohammed Omar. Mullah Omar's original commanders were "a mixture of former small-unit military commanders and Madrassa teachers," and the rank and file made up mostly of Afghan refugees who had studied at Islamic religious schools in Pakistan. It operates in Afghanistan and the Frontier Tribal Areas of Pakistan.
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In Brief: Food distribution tragedy in northern Afghanistan
KABUL, 18 February 2009 (IRIN) - A food aid distribution in the Balkhab District of Sare Pol Province, northern Afghanistan, led to the death of one person and four people injured, according to the provincial head of the Afghan Red Crescent Society.
Violence broke out when people were told only some of them would receive the government food aid, which prompted the crowd to crush the aid consignments.
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New route links Afghanistan to sea, via Iran
San Francisco Chronicle, USA Matthew B. Stannard Tuesday, February 17, 2009
As President Obama's foreign policy team tries to make lemonade out of the diplomatic lemons it has inherited around the world, one region could represent low-hanging fruit: the Khyber Pass linking Pakistan with Afghanistan.
The historic bottleneck, through which about 75 percent of U.S. supplies bound for Afghanistan travel, has become a hotbed of Taliban activity. Recent violence - a critical bridge has been destroyed and truck convoys have been bombed - could hamper Obama's plan to send more troops to Afghanistan, but it also might provide an opportunity.
A new land route has just opened linking Afghanistan to the southern seaports of its next-door neighbor, Iran - and that could be the opening the new administration needs to forge a diplomatic relationship with a regional power the United States has, with rare exception, viewed as the Middle East bogeyman.
"I certainly think it represents an opportunity, particularly because it kind of takes up this relationship where it was last at its most amicable: that is, over Afghanistan," said Abbas Milani, director of the Iranian Studies Program at Stanford University.
The attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, and the toppling of the Taliban government in Kabul a month later represented a remarkable departure from decades of mutual antipathy between the United States and Iran that peaked with Iran's revolution and the hostage crisis.
Brief cooperation That period of cooperation included direct dialogue at a U.N.-sponsored conference in Bonn two weeks after Kabul fell and ultimately included discreet Iranian permission for U.S. flights over Iranian territory and assurances that any U.S. pilots forced to land or crash in Iran would be returned, Milani said.
Since then, relations between the two nations have sunk over U.S. allegations that Iran has sought nuclear weaponry and fomented violence across the Middle East. Iran has accused the United States of seeking to destroy its government and acting as a regional bully on behalf of Israel.
But last week, Obama and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad each made overtures about their desire to begin talking again. Ahmadinejad's call last Tuesday for "talks based on mutual respect and in a fair atmosphere" came less than 24 hours after Obama's similar call in a press conference.
If Obama is looking for openings, Milani and other analysts said, he should look to Iran to help solve the crisis in the Khyber Pass, the ancient mountain corridor trod in antiquity by Alexander the Great and the traders of the Silk Road.
In recent weeks, the Khyber region in northwest Pakistan has shaken with battles between Pakistani troops and Taliban fighters, who blew up an important bridge and attacked NATO convoys heading to Afghanistan, the end of a journey beginning hundreds of miles away at the Pakistani port city of Karachi.
As invaders throughout history have learned, closing the Khyber Pass can create a logistics nightmare for even the largest army. Afghanistan is landlocked, with few good routes connecting it to the seas. The recent violence around the pass has left NATO convoys idling for hours and days awaiting repairs or safe passage.
Alternatives to Khyber One of the best alternatives is relatively new: a road India built between the Afghan towns of Delaram and Zaranj, which are linked by road with the Arabian Sea - through Iran.
It's not the only alternative - Afghanistan can be accessed from the northwest, but that route is longer and would require traveling through Russia's sphere of influence. And Russia's relationship with the United States and Europe of late has been less than cordial.
Some analysts hope Obama explores the much shorter path through Iran, with an eye toward renewing the two countries' sense of shared interests.
Iran has a degree of self-interest in its next-door neighbor that distant Russia lacks. Iran's hostility toward the Taliban predates Sept. 11: the Taliban's interpretation of Islam holds that the Shiite Muslims who dominate Iran are heretics, and an Iranian diplomat is among those being held by militants. Iranians are also concerned about the boom in opium poppy cultivation that has swept Afghanistan in the aftermath of the U.S. invasion.
"There's a lot of common interests - at a broad level, both countries want to see Afghanistan stabilized, neither country wants to see a resurgence of the Taliban, both countries want to stop drug trafficking," said Karim Sadjadpour, an associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "If the U.S. is contemplating when and how to go about engaging Iran, Afghanistan presents the best opportunity to build confidence."
NATO might be reaching a similar conclusion.
"We need to stop looking at Afghanistan as if it were an island," Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said late last month. "We need a discussion that brings in all the relevant players: Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, China, Russia - and yes, Iran."
A few days later, Gen. John Craddock, an American who is NATO's supreme allied commander, said that if other NATO members wished to talk to Iran about sending supplies through its borders instead of through the Khyber Pass - fine.
But would it be wise? Some analysts question the wisdom of giving Iran new leverage in the region.
"It's absolutely true to say that every country surrounding Afghanistan wants stability and security, but what you can't forget is they want stability and security on their own terms," said Michael Rubin, a resident scholar in foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute. "Oftentimes Iranian terms and U.S. terms are two different things. I'm not sure the desire for talks is worth gambling our troops' supplies."
Richard Russell, professor of national security affairs at the National Defense University's Near East-South Asia Center for Strategic Studies, said any talk of logistical agreements with Iran is grossly premature and should wait until new diplomatic contacts between the United States and Iran in neutral territory and other cultural exchanges bear fruit.
"The Iranians are just not business partners right now," he said.
But other analysts argued that small, practical deals such as opening supply routes can lay the ground for more successful diplomacy later on.
"We need to do these small confidence-building measures that show we can live with each other, we can find ways to work with each other," said Steven Clemons, who directs the American Strategy Program at the New America Foundation. "Without that, you'll never have enough trust."
State Department spokesman Robert Wood said Wednesday that Obama's special representative to Afghanistan and Pakistan, Richard Holbrooke, visited the Khyber region after meeting with Pakistan's political leaders.
"The Obama administration is already thinking about this. I'm sure Richard Holbrooke has this in mind," said Carnegie associate Sadjadpour.
E-mail Matthew B. Stannard at mstannard@sfchronicle.com
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Mini-surge to test out US strategy in Afghanistan
Some 3,000 US troops recently deployed to insurgent-heavy provinces near Kabul.
Christian Science Monitor, MA By Anand Gopal 18 February 2009
Maydan Shahr, Afghanistan - The 3,000 new American troops who arrived in recent weeks in Logar and Wardak provinces, both of which border Kabul, face a formidable challenge: establishing control in areas with little government presence and where insurgents operate freely.
In Band-e-chak, for example, a district capital in Wardak, gun-toting Taliban fighters regularly come into town on their motorbikes to do some shopping. They buy their produce and go home, driving past government offices unmolested.
These provinces could be a key testing ground for the Obama administration's Afghan strategy, which may include a surge of thousands of US forces countrywide.
"Policymakers in Washington will be watching the progress there closely," says Habibullah Rafeh, political analyst with the Afghan Academy of Sciences. "If [the US] can turn things around there, they can create the momentum to turn around the whole war."
The strategy in Logar and Wardak will be to push the insurgents out of their strongholds and eliminate their contact with locals, and to emphasize development and reconstruction, says Col. David Haight, commander of the newly arrived troops.
Insurgents' expanding control
Unlike areas of the Afghan south, such as Kandahar, the provinces close to Kabul were free from a sizeable insurgent presence until the last couple of years. The deteriorating security here mirrors the trends of worsening violence nationwide over the past year, where record numbers of foreign soldiers and civilians were killed.
In Wardak Province, insurgents today control six out of nine districts, according to interviews with locals and government officials here. They also control four out of seven districts in Logar Province, locals say. Parallel governments exist in each of these districts, with the Afghan government nominally occupying the district capitals but allowing the Taliban to operate freely.
Residents of Band-e-chak, the capital of Chak district, say the local government made an agreement with the Taliban. "They leave each other alone, so there is no fighting between the two sides," says Fazel Minallah. "Sometimes when officials from Kabul visit, the Taliban leave and the [district government] puts a bunch of police in the streets and everyone pretends there is no problem."
One other Wardak district even lacks a Kabul-appointed governor, leaving only the Taliban administration.
Complex militant networks
In addition to dealing with corrupt and ineffective local governments, US forces will have to contend with a collection of insurgent forces with different tactics and ideologies.
In Logar Province, the Haqqani network is the dominant insurgent group, according to intelligence officials. This network has sympathies with Al Qaeda and is considered one of the most dangerous insurgent outfits. Authorities say it may have been behind the daring simultaneous attack on three government offices in Kabul last week, for example.
Here in Wardak, the rebel group Hizb-i-Islami controls two districts and the Taliban four. Hizb-i-Islami was a leading guerrilla force that fought against the Soviet invasion in the 1980s and maintains ties from that time.
The rebels' ranks here are drawn mostly from the local population, unlike some other provinces where the Taliban imports fighters. "This could make it harder for the US to separate the insurgents from the population and isolate them," says Waliullah Rahmani, an insurgency expert with the Kabul Center for Strategic Studies.
Like elsewhere, Wardak and Logar are home to a bewildering array for tribes, each carrying a complex history of rivalries and allegiances.
A group of tribes here, which locals call the Maidani, has historically supported Hizb-i-Islami and contributes fighters to its ranks. Other tribes have allegiances with the Taliban and still others support the Afghan government.
Locals wary of more foreign troops
Washington's biggest challenge, however, may be winning the support of a local population that is wary of American troops. "I had a meeting with my constituents," says Roshanak Wardak, a member of parliament from Wardak Province. "They were completely, 100 percent against the arrival of foreign troops."
People are worried that the injection of more troops will bring more civilian casualties," says Muhammad Hazrat Janan, a member of Wardak's provincial council.
"We don't want more fighting here," says Najibullah, a taxi driver. "When the Americans come, the Taliban attacks us." The others in his car nod in agreement.
But already 3,000 troops have landed in these provinces. They belong to the Army's 10th Mountain Division, which was slated for Iraq until being diverted to Afghanistan last September.
Colonel Haight says he recognizes the problem of local hostility. "You won't be able to build trust overnight. It will take some time."
"We need to push into the villages," he adds. "We have to get out there and show the benefits of our presence."
These benefits will include fostering development and better governance, he says, to go along with traditional combat operations.
"They got the groceries here," he explains, referring to farm produce. "They can get it out of the ground, they just can't get it to the market."
The two provinces have few usable roads and related facilities.
US forces here plan to facilitate infrastructure development, which officials contend will lead to more economic opportunities for the locals.
"He who creates jobs is going to win this war," says Haight. "The Taliban can't create jobs, but if we can, it can make a real difference."
In addition, the Americans plan to help build the capacity of Afghan government.
They are meeting regularly with Wardak's governor Muhammad Halim Fedayee. "I have been focused on getting qualified staff and creating a transparent and accountable government," Mr. Fedayee says. "If the Americans don't continue this approach, we are all in trouble."
Debate over arming Afghans
US officials are also backing the creation of an armed paramilitary force in Wardak known as the Afghan Protection Force. Village elders will nominate groups of young men, who will be vetted, trained, armed, and given a uniform by the Ministry of Interior. These groups will be tasked with providing neighborhood security – there are only 460 police officers for the more than half a million people there – and acting as a "holding force" in areas where insurgents are cleared out, according to Afghan officials.
While the plan is popular with locals who see the possibility of jobs in a province where they are scarce, many analysts say there are dangers in providing weapons to tribesmen in a region awash with arms and in a country with a history of civil war.
Government officials in Wardak, however, support the initiative. "The US should be helping support all local Afghan security forces, instead of sending in troops," says provincial council member Mr. Janan.
The provincial council is an elected body that advises the provincial governor. As the Taliban increased its hold over Wardak, council members started to leave the province. Now, none of the nine members even live in Wardak – they've all relocated to Kabul.
"My family can't stay there anymore," Janan says. "We just sit and wait for the day that we can return."
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Militants set on fire school, clinic in E Afghanistan
KHOST, Afghanistan, Feb. 18 (Xinhua) -- Taliban-led insurgents fighting the Afghan government set on fire a school and one clinic in eastern Afghanistan, officials said Wednesday.
The militia in the first attack raided a primary school in Gobuz district of Khost province late last night, setting it ablaze and destroyed it, the police chief of the district, Bismillah Khan told Xinhua.
Militants also burned a health clinic in Watapor district of Kunar province, a health official in the province Assadullah told Xinhua.
The building, constructed recently, was burnt to rubble, he official further said.
Taliban insurgents who staged a violent comeback three years ago have been targeting the government interests since then.
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A Terrain's Tragic Shift
Researcher's Death Intensifies Scrutiny Of U.S. Cultural Program in Afghanistan
By Pamela Constable Washington Post Wednesday, February 18, 2009; C01
With its mud-walled houses and narrow lanes, Chehel Gazi looked like a hundred other dusty villages that Paula Loyd had visited in southern Afghanistan over the years. She greeted villagers with the same forthright, friendly concern that she had always displayed during her past stints as an aid worker, U.N. staffer and member of civil affairs teams for the U.S. Army.
But Loyd, 36, a blond woman with a strong resemblance to the actress Daryl Hannah, was also a startling sight as she strode into the village market one morning last November, wearing combat fatigues and circled by armed guards. They were in the heart of ethnic Pashtun territory, a traditional region where the Islamic Taliban movement was born in the 1990s and women are still hidden from public view.
Loyd's mission this time, as a researcher on contract to the Pentagon, was to get to know the villagers and their problems, to help the military map out what it called the "human terrain" of Afghanistan and thus improve its ability to fight Taliban and al-Qaeda insurgents. With two interpreters at her side, she began to ask shoppers about the cost of fuel. One Afghan man, carrying a jug of gasoline, lingered to chat and thanked her for the visit. It was a bright winter day, and the mood in the market seemed relaxed and cordial.
Suddenly, the calm was shattered: According to court documents and government accounts, the man holding the jug abruptly hurled the gasoline at Loyd's face and chest, set her on fire and bolted. She fell to the ground in a fetal position, groaning, in flames. One guard took off after the attacker while the other rolled Loyd into a stream to douse the flames. Police began firing their guns in confusion. One guard, Don Ayala, had cuffed the man and pinned him to the ground when an Afghan interpreter ran over, screaming hysterically that Loyd was burning to death. Ayala turned and shot his prisoner in the head.
That brief flurry of violence has left a lingering trail of tragedy. The attacker died instantly, unable to shed light on his motives or possible conspirators. Ayala, one of three people in Loyd's tight-knit field team, was charged with murder in U.S. federal court and could face 15 years in prison. And Loyd, who had become deeply attached to Afghanistan, died 10,000 miles away in a San Antonio Army hospital, finally succumbing to her burns Jan. 7.
The horrific events of Nov. 4 have also taken on a larger strategic significance as the Obama administration prepares to commit up to 30,000 troops to a new civil-military campaign to win over the Afghan populace and defeat the insurgents. The fatal attack on Loyd has aroused new criticism of the program that hired her to help the U.S. military understand Afghan society -- and it has highlighted rising worries about the increasingly treacherous human terrain that awaits those who follow her.
'Don't Worry About Me'
Given her cheerleader looks, winning personality and pedigreed education, Texas-born Paula Loyd could have chosen virtually any career. She attended boarding school in Connecticut, majored in cultural anthropology at Wellesley and obtained a master's degree in conflict resolution and diplomacy at Georgetown. When she told her family she wanted to join the military, everyone presumed she would apply for Officer Candidate School.
But Loyd, her mother said, always wanted to be "on the ground, close to the people." Restless and driven, she had a lifelong desire to help those in troubled foreign lands. She also had a horror of offices and a rebellious indifference to title or class. She enlisted as an Army private and became a heavy-wheel-vehicle mechanic. She served briefly in South Korea, but once she was posted to Afghanistan in early 2002, shortly after U.S.-led forces ousted the Taliban regime, she knew she had found her niche.
Although she left active service after one tour, Loyd immediately shifted to a succession of jobs aimed at rebuilding the war-ravaged country, and often at bridging the gap between civilian and military agencies. She worked as a reservist with an Army civil affairs battalion, bringing medical aid and supplies to villages like Chehel Gazi. She worked for the U.S. Agency for International Development at a military reconstruction outpost, helping to resolve local disputes. She worked for the United Nations and the International Organization for Migration. All the while, friends and colleagues said, she deepened her love and knowledge of Afghan society.
"She cared about my country as much as I did," said Faridoon Barakzai, her former translator, who now works with a consulting firm in Arlington. In a recent interview, he recalled how the two drove to countless southern villages in 2002 and 2003, speaking with people about their needs. "She especially loved to be in the south," he said. "She found the people more friendly, and she felt comfortable. She knew the rules of the culture well, and she was careful not to hug or shake hands with men, but she felt safe."
Other friends and colleagues from Loyd's time in Afghanistan described her as a woman of extraordinary energy, empathy and personal force, who worked around the clock and battled blizzards and bureaucracy to bring help to others. Their stories have poured out at tearful memorial services in Texas and Washington, and in hundreds of messages on blogs and Web sites since her death.
"She had a passion for the people of Afghanistan, and it was all we could do to keep up with her," Ray Short, an Army major who served with Loyd in 2002 and 2003, wrote on a memorial Web site. "She died doing the work of bringing peace to a people she loved and respected. Her work will touch generations of Afghans. . . . I am a better person for having lived and served with her."
Loyd was also famous for rescuing dogs while on military missions, including three puppies she found abandoned beside a highway and a blind dog she named Bob. One friend recounted that Loyd invited her to join her family on vacation in the Caribbean but then never made it because she stayed in Kabul to make sure all four dogs made it safely on flights to the United States.
Loyd's mother, Patty Ward, a vivacious woman in her 50s with a homey drawl, visited Washington recently to attend a memorial service at the Ronald Reagan Building. Back in her Alexandria hotel, she was bursting to describe Loyd's life and work, but her face tightened when asked about the attack. "I will not have her remembered for one violent act," Ward said sharply. "She did too much good for this to be the last thing people remember about Paula Loyd."
The two women constantly e-mailed each other when Loyd was overseas. In their last exchange, Oct. 27, Ward mentioned an article she had seen about aid workers in Afghanistan being worried for their safety. Seven hours later, Loyd sent back a chipper, reassuring reply.
"Don't worry about me," she wrote. "We are riding around in these new vehicles that look like tanks and I have lots of security around all the time." In rural Kandahar, she added, there were mostly farm compounds, no big urban targets, and the Taliban just passed through on the road. "Don't worry :) Love you, Paula."
Human Terrain System
If one were to chart the events in Afghanistan that coincided with Loyd's time there, they would form a slow, upward arc of progress between 2002 and 2006: elections held, highways reopened, militias demobilized, schools and clinics built. But beginning in early 2006, the arc would begin a long downward slope as opium poppy production soared, corruption spread and attacks by insurgents increased month by month.
At first the violence was limited to military clashes, but then the insurgents began going after softer targets. Girls' schools were attacked. Government employees were hanged as spies. Suicide bombings, once unheard of among Afghans, became weekly occurrences. Foreigners, including women, became victims, too. A young French woman who worked with refugees was shot dead, then a female British-South African doctor. In Kabul, suicide squads invaded the fortresslike Serena Hotel and attacked the Indian Embassy.
Meanwhile the insurgents' anti-government, anti-foreign message began to resonate with some Afghans, especially in the Pashtun south. Mired in poverty and alienated from a corrupt state, some villagers were vulnerable to the arguments of these fellow Muslims and ethnic brethren. After Western bombing raids killed civilian villagers in several high-profile incidents, the once-wide welcome for American and NATO forces shifted to dismay, resentment and hostility.
By the time Loyd returned to Afghanistan last September, this time as a researcher with one of the Army's Human Terrain System teams, the ground had shifted dramatically. Taliban forces controlled much of the south and had established a strong presence in districts an hour's drive from the capital. Foreign aid workers and officials no longer ventured into most of the countryside. In Kabul, foreign compounds were often on lockdown, carpet bazaars were empty and garden cafes had become high-security bunkers.
Loyd's mission was a familiar one: to reach out to rural Afghans and try to untangle the web of tribal, political and ethnic relations that governed their lives. But the strategic underpinnings of her employment had also changed. Now she was part of a military program with a controversial three-year history in Iraq and Afghanistan, whose supporters had hailed it as an urgently needed innovation in post-9/11 conflicts but whose critics had compared it to the failed counterinsurgency campaigns of Vietnam.
Although the Human Terrain System was designed by an anthropologist, it was ardently opposed by groups of social scientists who believe the military should not use scholars as collaborators in combat. After the program started in 2005, it generated an avalanche of heated debate in academic circles and online, which has intensified since Loyd's death.
"In theory, it is a good idea. . . . In practice, however, it has been a disaster," the magazine Nature said a recent editorial, noting that Loyd was the third civilian casualty on a Human Terrain mission in the past year. While conceding that scientific insights "have much to offer strategies in a war zone," the editors added that unless the program can be revamped to lessen "deadly mistakes, it needs to be closed down."
When Loyd and her team walked into the Chehel Gazi market, they must have exuded mixed messages: a friendly foreign woman circled by wary armed men. The Afghan who set her on fire might have been a Taliban fighter following orders, but he also might have been merely a conservative villager, influenced by Taliban propaganda that portrays Western soldiers as occupiers and Western women as immoral. Attacks against women are spreading throughout the south; soon after Loyd's death, insurgents threw acid at a group of high school girls in nearby Kandahar city.
A variety of Afghans, however, have expressed grief and affection for Loyd, stressing that her attacker did not represent their values or culture. President Hamid Karzai issued a formal statement of condolence. Khalil Tareen, another former translator, spoke emotionally at the recent memorial service about how Loyd had arranged medical help that saved the life of his severely ill nephew.
"On behalf of my family and many Afghans, I would like to apologize for what happened to your daughter," he said, looking toward Ward and half a dozen other relatives. He said many Afghans who had known her were "heartbroken" by her death. "You lost your daughter. We lost a friend and an angel."
Loyd's employers, while continuing to defend their program, have joined the outpouring of official praise for her as a soldier, aid worker and human being. "Paula was motivated by a deep compassion for the victims of war and was a true humanitarian," Montgomery McFate and Steve Fondacaro, the co-founders of the Human Terrain System, wrote on a Pentagon Web site.
Meanwhile, in a gesture to appease Afghan sensibilities, the U.S. government charged Ayala with second-degree murder in U.S. federal court. The security contractor from New Orleans pleaded guilty Jan. 3, but so far he has refused to explain his actions. Sources close to Ayala suggested he lost control upon learning Loyd was hideously burned, and many friends and bloggers have hailed him as a hero.
There might be one further casualty in the tragic events of Nov. 4. At a time when U.S. officials believe the key to salvaging the war in Afghanistan is to combine military might with political engagement and cultural understanding, many international experts have begun leaving the country in disillusionment, while fewer and fewer are signing up. Several of Loyd's colleagues, once as highly motivated as she, say they will never go back.
"I hope like hell we find a way to continue the kind of work Paula was doing. It is vital for the Afghan campaign now. There is an urgent need to get over petty institutional insecurities and work together," said Brig. Phil Jones, an officer at the British Embassy in Washington who worked with Loyd in Kabul.
"Paula died, and others will die. It is very hard to accept, but we need more people like her," he said. "Otherwise we will just be out there, blundering around in our diving boots and stomping on eggshells."
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As more Afghan civilians die, so does trust of U.S. forces
Backlash brews, threatening to undermine U.S. mission in Afghanistan
Chicago Tribune By Kim Barker February 18, 2009
OUTSIDE MEHTARLAM, Afghanistan - Ghazi Gul keeps the pictures of the dead in a pocket near his heart— his father, two brothers, a cousin, a nephew.
Gul works for the Afghan intelligence service, fighting militants on behalf of the U.S.-backed government. But now he blames the U.S. for the deaths of eight of his relatives, including his mother and two nieces—and he wants revenge.
"I will continue to serve my government," said Gul, 25, who moved to a refugee camp near the provincial capital of Mehtarlam after an American raid on his village at the end of January. "But if we talk about the Americans, they are my enemies. And if I can, I will hurt them."
No issue threatens to undermine the growing U.S. military mission in Afghanistan more than civilian casualties, which have turned more and more Afghans against international troops, created a rift between the U.S. and President Hamid Karzai and delivered Taliban insurgents an easy issue to exploit.
The number of Afghan civilians killed in armed conflict jumped to a record 2,118 people last year, the UN said in a new report Tuesday. Insurgents killed 55 percent of the victims, but U.S., NATO and Afghan forces killed 39 percent, the report said.
Of those, 552 were attributed to airstrikes.
At a time when President Barack Obama plans to double the number of U.S. troops on the ground—he announced the deployment 17,000 soldiers and Marines on Tuesday—officials warn that a failure to resolve the casualties issue could make the coming mission even more problematic.
Gul and others from his village of Galoch blame the U.S. for killing 16 civilians, including two women and three children, and injuring dozens more in a raid in the early morning of Jan. 24. They say that the assault targeted a Taliban commander who had left the area months before and that only civilians were killed. Afghan officials also say the dead were all civilians.
The U.S. military maintains that the dead were mostly militants and that the only woman killed was firing a rocket-propelled grenade launcher. But still, the U.S. paid each victim's family almost $2,000, a move that the U.S. says is designed to show condolence but that Afghans say proves the dead were innocent.
The incident in eastern Laghman province underscores how complex the issue of civilian casualties has become.
Taliban-led insurgents are responsible for killing more innocents than international forces and probably use civilians as human shields, U.S. and Afghan officials say. But Afghans increasingly blame the international troops—particularly the U.S.—for making mistakes and not coordinating with the Afghan government on raids and strikes.
"The main cause of this is the Taliban," said Lutfullah Mashal, the Laghman governor. "But what is the aftermath? The population doesn't realize this. They think the Americans deliberately want to kill civilians."
Of particular concern are raids by U.S. Special Operations Forces, which operate under a command separate from that of most of the international troops and who are blamed for most controversial raids, including the one in Galoch.
Now, U.S. soldiers in Laghman province, including a number from the Illinois National Guard, are left trying to repair the damage with Afghans increasingly angry over what they view as indiscriminate killings. At one meeting at the governor's office after the Galoch attack, Afghans threw rocks toward the Guard vehicles and soldiers.
"That's really unusual for this area," said Lt. Col. Dan Fuhr, the top U.S. commander in Laghman and back home a Motorola marketing employee from Park Ridge. "The public sentiment, at least for the time being, has definitely been affected negatively."
Officials say that the Taliban has manipulated the issue of civilian casualties to the point that the truth matters less than perception. Even when militants are killed, Afghans often choose to believe Taliban propaganda that the international forces are killing only civilians.
Also complicating the issue here are Pashtun tribal codes, which dictate that tribes must take revenge for such killings to maintain their honor.
Last week, the Afghan Defense Ministry and the U.S. forces commander in Afghanistan announced an agreement designed to minimize the number of civilian casualties and to include more Afghans in the planning and execution of counter-terrorism missions.
For years, the Afghan government and NATO-led forces have said more Afghan personnel will be included in raids and house searches. It is not clear whether this new agreement will have any real influence over the activities of the U.S. Special Operations Forces, but in a media briefing Sunday, Karzai said he hoped the agreement would end night-time raids.
There were no Afghan security forces on the raid in Galoch, one of three raids in January blamed for civilian casualties. Villagers said they were surprised by the raid, about 1 a.m., and that many grabbed their weapons.
"When they came, we didn't know they were Americans," said Sayed Hazratullah Khalilyar, the tribal chief in Galoch. "We thought they were thieves. Someone fired a warning shot. And then they killed us."
A Taliban commander named Qadir has been very active in the region—his father-in-law lived in Galoch. Khalilyar and other villagers said Qadir was driven out when tribal elders decided to ban him after a previous U.S. raid in Galoch last fall.
The U.S. is investigating the attack.
Col. Greg Julian, the spokesman for U.S. forces, said it's still not clear what happened. "I would say there was some potential that some of those killed were civilians," he said. "Because some of those men shooting at our troops may have been civilians."
kbarker@tribune.com
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Drug abuse hampers Afghan police
By Martin Patience 18 February 2009 BBC News
Kabul - Sixty per cent of the Afghan police in the country's southern province of Helmand use drugs, it is claimed.
The estimate, made by a UK official working in the province, was contained in emails obtained by the BBC.
International forces are fighting a fierce counter-insurgency campaign against Taleban militants and other insurgents in Helmand.
But British officials are clearly worried about the reliability of the Afghan police.
"We are very concerned by the levels of drug abuse among the police," the British Foreign Office said in a statement.
"The police are poorly paid, do high risk work and are poorly trained. There are high levels of corruption in the police as well as drug use and supporting counter-narcotics is a key priority for the UK," it said.
The training of the Afghan security forces has been a central plank in the international community's strategy to help stabilise the country.
The unnamed British official, however, wrote in an email to the Foreign Office that drug use was "undermining security sector reform and state-building efforts as well as contributing to corruption".
Helmand province produces almost two-thirds of the world's opium, which is used to manufacture heroin.
The provincial governor, Gulab Mangal, told the BBC that drug use was a "huge problem" amongst police stationed in the province.
He added that steps were being taken to tackle the issue and that "at least 10" police officers had recently been dismissed after failing drugs tests.
'Pressure valve'
Drug use amongst the police is not just confined to Helmand, but is a nationwide problem, according to the emails, obtained by the BBC under a Freedom of Information Act request made to the Foreign Office.
Of 5,320 Afghan police and recruits tested by US-led police training programmes across the country, 16% were found to be using drugs. The majority of those who tested positive had used cannabis or opium.
Analysts say that the drug problem in the police is higher in the southern provinces where drugs are readily available - in Kandahar province, which neighbours Helmand, 38% tested positive.
Police work in these areas is also highly dangerous and low paid - reasons, analysts say, for widespread drug use.
"The police are constantly under threat from the Taleban," says Abdul Ghafoor, director of the Regional Studies Centre of Afghanistan, a think-tank based in Kabul.
"To escape from the psychological pressure they often turn to drugs."
But Mr Ghafoor insists that it is vital for Afghanistan that the police act within the law.
"The police are responsible for controlling drug trafficking, but if they become addicts who will control it?"
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