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Karzai, Abdullah about even in early Afghan presidential returns; bombs kill 41 in Kandahar
By Jason Straziuso,Robert H. Reid, The Associated Press Tue Aug 25, 5:09 PM
KABUL - President Hamid Karzai and his main rival, former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah, were running virtually even Tuesday in the first fragmented returns from last week's Afghan election, raising the possibility of a runoff that could drag the process out for months.
Afghanistan's early returns point to a tie, possible runoff
President Hamid Karzai and rival Abdullah Abdullah lack a majority. A clouded election result amid fraud allegations could mean political paralysis as the West tries to revamp its war strategy.
The Los Angeles Times By Laura King August 26, 2009
Reporting from Kabul, Afghanistan - What was billed as a pivotal summer for the Western war effort in Afghanistan has become a season of drift and disappointment.
One in five Afghan ballots may be illegal, UN warns
The Guardian By Jon Boone 08/25/2009
Kabul - Officials in Afghanistan deny evidence of widespread fraud in presidential poll amid fears vote-rigging could decide result
6 candidates question Afghan presidential election's credibility
KABUL, Aug. 25 (Xinhua) -- Six major candidates, who contested the sitting Hamid Karzai in the second presidential race held in the post-Taliban country, challenged the credibility of the polls on Tuesday.
Rigging charges to affect credibility of Afghan presidential election
By Hadi Mayar
KABUL, Aug. 25 (Xinhua) -- Growing charges of rigging and fraud in the Afghan presidential election are liable to affect the credibility of the ballot, even if they fail to sway the final result.
AFGHANISTAN: INTERNATIONALS CLAIM VICTORY WHILE AFGHANS CRY FRAUD
Eurasianet.org Aunohita Mojumdar 08/24/09
Diplomats have rushed to declare Afghanistan’s August 20 presidential and provincial council elections a success, while downplaying credible reports of disenfranchisement and widespread electoral irregularities.
Fraud Claims Question Poll Credibility
Election commission received over 400 complaints so far, with more than 40 possibly major enough to affect outcome.
Institute for War & Peace Reporting By Sayed Yaqub Ibrahimi in Kabul (ARR No. 334, 24-Aug-09)
Afghans are complaining that the last week’s elections were marred by serious fraud, in contrast to the international community’s assessment that voting was fair.
Abdullah Abdullah under pressure to concede to Hamid Karzai
The Telegraph, UK By Ben Farmer in Mazar-i-Sharif 08/24/2009
Hamid Karzai's main rival has come under international pressure to accept defeat in the presidential elections, his main backer has said.
Afghanistan's future is still in peril
Editorial Desk The Nation (Thailand) 26-08-2009
Given the volatile political and security situation in Afghanistan, the ongoing spitting contest between President Hamid Karzai and his leading challenger, Abdullah Abdullah should not be easily dismissed as politics as usual.
Durham appointed to investigate CIA abuses
Press TV August 25, 2009
The US justice department says prosecutor John Durham has been nominated to investigate interrogation abuses by CIA officials and contractors.
Four US soldiers killed in Afghanistan unrest
Tue Aug 25, 9:06 am ET
KABUL (AFP) – Four US soldiers operating under NATO were killed Tuesday in a bomb blast in southern Afghanistan, the alliance said.
Media watchdog condemns killing of Afghan reporter in Pakistan
ISLAMABAD, Aug. 25 (Xinhua) -- The Press for Peace (PFP), a media watchdog and humanitarian organization, on Tuesday expressed deep concern over the brutal killing of an Afghan journalist in northwest Pakistan's
Vote fraud allegations increase in Afghanistan
USA TODAY By Jim Michaels 24 Aug 2009
KABUL - Afghan presidential candidate Ramazan Bashardost jumped out of his chair Sunday when he saw the news photographers and started yelling at election officials who were tallying votes in a warehouse.
Pakistan must 'exploit Taliban leadership rifts'
By Charlotte McDonald-Gibson August 25, 2009
(AFP) – ISLAMABAD — Pakistan must exploit rifts among Taliban commanders jostling to inherit the brutal legacy of rebel chief Baitullah Mehsud, analysts say, or risk the power vacuum being filled by Al-Qaeda.
Holbrooke: Persian Gulf oil money fuels Taliban insurgencies
Tue August 25, 2009
ISTANBUL, Turkey (CNN) -- America's top diplomat for Afghanistan and Pakistan says the deadly Taliban insurgency in those countries relies heavily on funding from the oil-rich Persian Gulf.
US plans long-term training center for war in Afghanistan
Press TV August 24, 2009
The US plans to launch an intelligence organization at US Central Command that will train military officers, covert agents and analysts who will commit to Afghanistan and Pakistan for 10 years.
Canada says not to contribute troops to Afghanistan
People's Daily - Aug 25 11:42 PM
Canada will not contribute troops to Afghanistan after the scheduled deadline of early 2011 and NATO should press other member countries to send more soldiers, Defense Minister Peter MacKay said Tuesday.
Pakistan Says West Must Cut Source of Taliban’s Funding, Arms
Bloomberg By Ed Johnson Aug. 25, 2009
Pakistan defended its fight against Islamic extremism and called on Western governments to choke off funding and arms supplies to Taliban insurgents.
Over 20 schools attacked on election day
KABUL, 24 August 2009 (IRIN) - At least 26 schools in different parts of Afghanistan were attacked by Taliban insurgents on 20 August - election day - apparently because they were being used as polling stations, according to the Ministry of Education (MoE).
Over 47, 000 Afghan refugees repatriated in three months
APP Aug 24, 2009
ISLAMABAD - Over 47,000 Afghan refugees have been repatriated from Pakistan during April to June this year, but now the repatriation process is suspended due to operational reasons. A representative of UNHCR, Muhammad Asif told APP
Our Afghan Ambassador: The Man in the Middle
The New Republic By Roland Flamini 08/23/2009
When Zalmay Khalilzad was U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan in the aftermath of the 2002 war, it was a given that President Hamid Karzai would never make a decision without first consulting him.
It's too early to get cold feet on Afghanistan
Philadelphia Inquirer By Trudy Rubin 08/23/2009
Even before Afghans went to the polls last week, Americans were getting queasy about U.S. involvement in Afghanistan.
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Karzai, Abdullah about even in early Afghan presidential returns; bombs kill 41 in Kandahar
By Jason Straziuso,Robert H. Reid, The Associated Press Tue Aug 25, 5:09 PM
KABUL - President Hamid Karzai and his main rival, former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah, were running virtually even Tuesday in the first fragmented returns from last week's Afghan election, raising the possibility of a runoff that could drag the process out for months.
The figures came from 10 per cent of the more than 27,000 polling sites nationwide - too small a sampling either to draw a conclusion about the outcome or silence criticism that the ballot was marred by fraud and Taliban violence.
The United States and its NATO partners had hoped Thursday's election would produce a clear winner with a strong mandate to confront the growing Taliban insurgency, widespread corruption, narcotics and a stagnant economy.
Six other presidential candidates, echoing Abdullah's earlier claims, charged Tuesday that widespread fraud occurred on election day - mostly in Karzai's favour.
The allegations threaten to discredit the eventual winner, stoke violence and cast doubt on the credibility of the Afghanistan democracy at a time when President Barack Obama and other Western leaders are considering investing more resources in an increasingly unpopular war.
Underscoring the crisis, a cluster of vehicle bombs detonated nearly simultaneously near a Japanese construction company in the southern city of Kandahar, killing at least 41 people, flattening buildings and sending flames shooting into the sky. The thundering explosion occurred just after nightfall Tuesday in a district that includes U.N. facilities and an Afghan intelligence office. Kandahar is the spiritual home of the Taliban.
Also in the south, a bombing killed four U.S. service members Tuesday. At least 172 American troops have died in the Afghan war this year - the deadliest since the conflict began in 2001.
The Independent Election Commission announced that Karzai was leading with 40.6 per cent and Abdullah was trailing with 38.7 per cent of the roughly 525,000 valid votes counted so far. Most of the votes came from Kabul, nearby Parwan and Nangarhar provinces, Kunduz and Jowzjan provinces in the north and Ghor province to the west.
However, the figures did not include votes from 12 of the country's 34 provinces, including some where Karzai was expected to run strong.
In the volatile south, the homeland of Karzai's Pashtun ethnic group, less than 2 per cent of the votes in Kandahar province had been counted and no votes in Helmand had been tallied, the commission said.
Karzai would expect to do well in both provinces, suggesting his returns could go higher. However, turnout was believed to have been low in those two provinces because of Taliban attacks and intimidation as well as heavy fighting between the insurgents and U.S.-led forces.
It is unclear whether turnout in the Pashtun south will be enough to significantly offset Abdullah's strength in the mostly Tajik and Uzbek north, which are generally more peaceful.
Abdullah, son of a Pashtun father and a Tajik mother, is widely seen as the northern candidate because of his close association with the northern-based alliance that overthrew the mostly Pashtun Taliban in the U.S.-led invasion of 2001.
Both Karzai and Abdullah had claimed they were leading in early returns, but no official figures have backed those assertions.
The U.S. government urged candidates to wait for more complete results. U.N. officials have also urged caution, fearing that a drumbeat of allegations and recriminations will poison the political atmosphere at a time when the part of society opposed to the Taliban must draw together.
"We call on all parties to refrain from speculation until national results are announced," State Department spokesman Ian Kelly said.
Some Afghans in Kabul expressed weariness with political bickering and hoped a runoff would not be necessary. If neither Karzai nor Abdullah gets more than 50 per cent of the vote, the two will face each other in a runoff, probably in October.
"We're tired," said Shirin Agha, 40, who sells melons along a Kabul street. "I'm fed up with all these politicians."
Nevertheless, allegations of vote rigging mounted Tuesday.
Abdullah showed reporters a packet of ballots with an official stamp on the back - used to mark cast ballots - nearly all checked for Karzai. He also showed video of what he said were Karzai supporters in eastern Ghazni province marking dozens of ballots for their candidate, and a picture of a polling site in the south showing people he said were Karzai campaign officials looking over the shoulders of voters.
"If the widespread rigging is ignored, this is the type of regime that will be imposed upon Afghanistan for the next five years and with that sort of a system, a system that has destroyed every institution, broken every law," Abdullah said at a news conference just before the results were announced.
The election commission said it fired four election workers in northern Balkh province for attempted fraud. Photographs showed three trying to vote with multiple cards, while the fourth was ordering voters to cast ballots for a specific candidate, said Daoud Ali Najafi, the commission's chief electoral officer.
The six other presidential candidates who cited fraud said in a statement that dozens of complaints filed could affect the outcome of the election "to the point that many are seriously questioning the legitimacy and credibility of the results."
"Fraud in the elections could result in increased tension and violence," the six added.
The most prominent of the six was Ashraf Ghani, a Western-educated former finance minister and World Bank official. Ghani earlier released a statement listing the complaints submitted by his campaign, including gunmen telling voters to cast ballots for Abdullah and officials stuffing ballot boxes in favour of Karzai.
As of Monday evening, the independent Electoral Complaints Commission said it received more than 50 allegations of fraud that could affect the election results if true. Final results cannot be certified as legitimate until the complaints commission rules on these cases.
Afghan officials say they are confident that algorithms, double-blind computer entries and other modern methods will catch 90 per cent of the fraud
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Associated Press Writers Heidi Vogt, Nahal Toosi, Rahim Faiez and Amir Shah in Kabul and Noor Khan in Kandahar contributed to this report.
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Afghanistan's early returns point to a tie, possible runoff
President Hamid Karzai and rival Abdullah Abdullah lack a majority. A clouded election result amid fraud allegations could mean political paralysis as the West tries to revamp its war strategy.
The Los Angeles Times By Laura King August 26, 2009
Reporting from Kabul, Afghanistan - What was billed as a pivotal summer for the Western war effort in Afghanistan has become a season of drift and disappointment.
The country's second direct presidential election -- a vote that was intended to be unifying, even uplifting -- has taken an uncertain and ugly turn.
The first partial results, released Tuesday, were inconclusive but pointed toward the possibility of a divisive runoff between President Hamid Karzai and his chief rival, former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah. Meanwhile, fraud allegations have become more vehement and angry.
A final certified tally is not expected for weeks, and a clouded election result could splinter the country along ethnic lines and usher in a prolonged period of political paralysis just as the West is trying to revive and revamp its war strategy.
Western troop casualties are now at their highest level since the start of the 8-year-old conflict. Roadside bombs and ambushes claim a near-daily toll; four more U.S. troops were killed in a bombing Tuesday.
Thousands of American troops have arrived in the country in recent months, but huge numbers of them are tied down trying to hold and protect tiny slivers of territory in the volatile south.
At the same time, American public support for the Afghanistan mission is faltering, and senior military officials are using some of their bleakest language to date to describe the battlefield impasse.
The Taliban, while failing to deliver on threats to derail last week's presidential vote, is displaying a growing degree of sophistication and ruthlessness in attacks that kill and maim mainly Afghan civilians. At least 40 people died Tuesday evening when insurgents tried a new tactic in the southern city of Kandahar: stringing together explosives-laden vehicles and setting off five of them in thunderous succession.
Five days after the landmark presidential vote, Afghanistan's Independent Election Commission -- a body criticized by outside observers for its close ties to incumbent Karzai -- said tallies from 10% of the country's polling centers suggested that Karzai and his chief rival, Abdullah, are locked in a virtual tie.
The early figures released by election officials gave Karzai 40.6% and Abdullah 38.7% of the vote. Either candidate would need more than 50% to win outright. The more than two dozen other candidates were trailing well behind Karzai and Abdullah.
If the preliminary figures hold up in the final count, a runoff election would be necessary, but it would not be held until October.
"I think tensions will continue to grow while we wait," said analyst Abdulhadi Hairan of the Center for Conflict and Peace Studies in Kabul, the Afghan capital.
Some officials, including U.S. special regional envoy Richard Holbrooke, cautioned, however, that the tally could still swing widely because several key provinces were not included in the initial results.
Holbrooke, who was in Afghanistan for the vote, warned that the early figures could be "misleading."
The Obama administration did not support any one candidate, but Karzai's courting of notorious former warlords -- including Abdul Rashid Dostum, allowed to return from exile days before the election -- was sharply criticized by U.S. and other Western diplomats.
Before the balloting, Western and Afghan officials pointedly avoided setting any benchmark for a turnout that would make the vote appear credible.
But it was clear that Taliban attacks and intimidation, including severing the ink-stained fingers of several voters, had significantly diminished people's willingness to go out and vote, particularly in the Pashtun heartland of the south, where Karzai's support is strongest.
Karzai is Pashtun, the largest ethnic group, while Abdullah is mainly identified with the Tajik minority
There has been no official estimate of the turnout, but the preliminary figures suggested that it might have been even lower than initially thought.
Complaints of fraud, meanwhile, continued to pour in. The United Nations-backed Electoral Complaints Commission, which will investigate allegations of irregularities, said it had received more than 800 complaints, about 50 of which had the potential to alter the overall result.
Even before the preliminary tally was released, Abdullah unleashed some of his harshest rhetoric yet against Karzai, accusing the president's camp of trying to "steal the verdict of the nation."
The Abdullah campaign released video Tuesday that it said showed Karzai backers and election officials doctoring ballots and intimidating voters.
Karzai's spokesman, meanwhile, said the government would enforce the law, a veiled warning to Abdullah supporters not to engage in street violence if their candidate lags as the count proceeds.
The growing discord over the election's outcome threatens to undermine a key element of the Obama administration's strategy in confronting the insurgency. Western powers hoped a successful election would bolster the central government's mandate, giving whoever emerged victorious much-needed clout to deal with festering problems such as corruption and the flourishing drug trade.
The darkening political picture comes as Army Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal, the new U.S. commander of Western forces in Afghanistan, prepares to deliver a major assessment of the war's progress. In advance of that, Adm. Michael G. Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, bluntly acknowledged this week that the situation in Afghanistan was "deteriorating."
The decline in American public support for the war is echoed in countries that are crucial allies in the effort, such as Britain, the largest contributor of troops after the United States.
With the four deaths reported Tuesday, 2009 has so far been the deadliest year for U.S. troops since the war's outset. July saw more U.S. military deaths in Afghanistan -- 45 -- than any month to date, and the tally of 41 so far in August is approaching that figure.
laura.king@latimes.com
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One in five Afghan ballots may be illegal, UN warns
The Guardian By Jon Boone 08/25/2009
Kabul - Officials in Afghanistan deny evidence of widespread fraud in presidential poll amid fears vote-rigging could decide result
Fraud in Afghanistan's presidential election may have compromised as many as one in five ballots, a UN official warned today , compounding fears that ballot-stuffing, intimidation and other irregularities could have a decisive impact on the vote.
Afghanistan's election commission sought to play down fears that vote-rigging in the country's presidential election would decide the outcome of the contest.
But concerns were mounting that electoral fraud in the south and east of the country, where few election monitors dared to tread, could help push the number of votes cast for the president, Hamid Karzai, over 50%, handing him victory without the need for a second-round contest. Partial results are expected to be announced later.
One UN official predicted that anywhere between 10% and 20% of the votes cast were illegal, and that negotiations would have to be made to "massage down" Karzai's victory margin. Independent election monitors said almost 700 complaints had been received, around 50 of which were earmarked for immediate investigation because of the risk they could change the outcome.
But the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC), which will publish a small portion of the results tomorrow, said the reported cases of fraud "could not affect the result of the election".
"We have reached the conclusion that 35 cases of reported fraud and violations is not widespread, given the number of polling centres is 6,300," said Zekria Barakzai, the IEC deputy head. "Whoever makes claims that there is widespread fraud should show evidence."
A separate body, the Electoral Complaints Commission, said a steady flow of official complaints had been received. Among a list of 38 complaints lodged by Ashraf Ghani, the former finance minister, were claims that people were forced to vote for the former foreign minister Abdullah Abdullah at gunpoint in the northern province of Balkhm, and of ballot box-stuffing in the western city of Herat.
The ECC, which is run by a board made up mainly of foreigners, has wide-ranging powers to cancel the results from individual polling stations where fraud has been detected.
However Ramazan Bashardost, one of the leading presidential candidates, believes the requirement for good quality evidence in areas where it may be hard to collect reliable eyewitness details will make it extremely difficult to discount large numbers of votes.
Mirwais Yaseni, the deputy speaker of Afghanistan's lower house of parliament, and a presidential candidate, claims thousands of votes cast for him where removed from ballot boxes and earmarked for destruction before being discovered by his supporters. He said the only option available was to "abolish the election".
"They have stolen it already. They are doing it electronically – it is just a matter of picking a number. At first, they were saying it would be 90% for Karzai, but now they are trying to bring it back down to 60%."
Another option would be to offer Abdullah Abdullah, the second-place candidate, who claims Mr Karzai has "rigged" the election, a power-sharing deal. Dr Abdullah was made such offers in the run-up to the election, however, and turned them down.
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6 candidates question Afghan presidential election's credibility
KABUL, Aug. 25 (Xinhua) -- Six major candidates, who contested the sitting Hamid Karzai in the second presidential race held in the post-Taliban country, challenged the credibility of the polls on Tuesday.
The six protesting candidates released a joint press release Tuesday, including Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai, Mutasimbillah Mazhabi, Bismillah Shir, Syed Jalal Karim, Farozan Fanah and Mirwasi Yasini.
"This election was characterized by widespread fraud which could result in increasing tension and violence in the country and millions across the nation are concerned and the international community is sharing this grave concern with us," said the press release.
It also added that Election Complaint Commission (ECC) had received over 400 complaints, with more than 40 of them possibly major enough to affect the outcome of the recently held polls.
The six candidates expressed their objection over the alleged fraud in the election while the independent election commission (IEC) is going to announce the partial results of the election later Tuesday.
These protesting candidates also said that the afghan nation wants their voice to be heard and their questions must be answered by the election commission and the international observers.
Earlier, Karzai' main challenger Abdullah Abdullah has complained over the alleged fraud and rigging in the election and demand thorough investigation.
Afghanistan's second presidential election held on Thursday amid tight security but the result has yet to be announced.
Sources close to president Karzai including his Finance Minister Omar Zakhilwal claimed to certain media Monday night that the incumbent president is in lead.
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Rigging charges to affect credibility of Afghan presidential election
By Hadi Mayar
KABUL, Aug. 25 (Xinhua) -- Growing charges of rigging and fraud in the Afghan presidential election are liable to affect the credibility of the ballot, even if they fail to sway the final result.
Grant Kippen, the head of the Election Complaint Commission of Afghanistan(ECC), set up under the aegis of the United Nations, said on Sunday that the commission had received 225 complaints regarding fraud and rigging in the Aug. 20 presidential election, out of which 35 constituted high priority charges.
The ECC official said the main complaints were about ballot box tampering.
Media reports from different provinces of Afghanistan, however, spoke of violence, intimidation, use of multiple voting cards, and partiality of the election staff.
Abdullah Abdullah, the top rival of Karzai in the election, last Friday accused massive fraud in the ballot.
"My focus today is on the big fraud. Big fraud, which can have an impact on the outcome of the election," Abdullah told reporters in Kabul.
He alleged that a security forces' commander in Kandahar province, General Abdul Raziq, had used his house as a polling station and also stuffed the ballot box for Karzai, a charge rejected by the commander, who said he was on security duty while the polling process continued.
"This has to be prevented. That is critical for the survival of the process." The former Afghan foreign minister said he had no faith in the election commission, adding that the commission's chief could not deliver justice as he had himself been appointed by Karzai.
However, Abdullah said that he was going to avoid a runoff.
Under the Afghan constitution, a runoff poll is to be held, probably in October, if neither Karzai nor Abdullah gets 50 per cent votes.
Another presidential candidate, Mirwais Yasini also alleged fraud in the election.
He displayed a torn ballot sheet in front of media representatives in Kabul.
Yasini claimed he had found evidence, including samples of ballot papers containing his votes torn up and thrown away in SpinBoldak district of Kandahar.
The Free and Fair Elections Foundation of Afghanistan, the top election monitoring group, also catalogued violations such as people using multiple voter cards and underage voting.
The group said there were widespread problems with supposedly independent election officials at polling stations trying to influence the way people voted.
One of the candidates even demonstrated in front of media representatives in Kabul as to how easily the indelible ink for marking thumbs of voters could be removed, for the purpose of multiple voting.
However, Richard Holbrooke, the U.S. special envoy to Pakistan and Afghanistan, said allegations of vote rigging and fraud were expected, but observers should wait for the official complaints process to run its course before judging the vote's legitimacy.
"We have disputed elections in the United States. There may be some questions. That would not surprise me at all. I expect it," he told a reporter in Herat city of western Afghanistan.
"There are always rumors in Afghanistan," Holbrooke said, adding that the U.S. government would wait for rulings from Afghanistan's monitoring bodies, the Independent Election Commission, and the complaints commission, before trying to judge the legitimacy of the vote.
Holbrooke categorically said, "The United States and the international community will respect the process set up by Afghanistan itself."
There is also criticism about the lengthy process adopted for announcing the election result.
While the preliminary results are scheduled to be announced on Tuesday, five days after the polls, the final result will be declared by the middle of next month.
However, accumulation of election results from thousands of polling stations in 34 provinces of Afghanistan, spread over a rough landscape and amid growing insurgency, is undoubtedly a time-consuming and difficult process.
Although there was fear of widespread violence and attacks on the polling days as Taliban had threatened to disrupt the process, yet barring a handful of violent attacks, the election was by and large held in a peaceful manner.
Although the election complaints commission's chief has apprehended that the growing charges of fraud could sway the final result of the election, observers do not expect the allegations to hamper the process of election result.
Election is a new phenomenon in Afghanistan and leveling of such allegations after the poll is natural in a country shattered by insurgency and warlordism.
Secondly, such allegations are also being leveled, often by defeated candidates, even in advanced democracies.
However, the allegations would certainly lower the credibility of Hamid Karzai, who is most likely to win the election, as a president elected through fair and free election.
In April, the Kremlin formally ended an anti-terrorist operation in Chechnya, which has experienced two bloody wars in the past 15 years.
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AFGHANISTAN: INTERNATIONALS CLAIM VICTORY WHILE AFGHANS CRY FRAUD
Eurasianet.org Aunohita Mojumdar 08/24/09
Diplomats have rushed to declare Afghanistan’s August 20 presidential and provincial council elections a success, while downplaying credible reports of disenfranchisement and widespread electoral irregularities. The apparent reluctance to acknowledge circumstantial evidence of substantial vote-rigging could have damaging, even irreparable consequences for Afghanistan’s democratization process, some experts contend.
In Kabul and donor capitals, the emphasis has been on celebrating the fact that elections were held at all, rather than on the likelihood that the voices of a considerable number of Afghans will not be heard. Both Afghans and internationals heaved a sigh of relief when polling day passed with a much lower-than-expected level of violence.
Noting the extremist challenge, US President Barack Obama characterized the elections as an important step forward. The European Union Observer Mission (EUOM) and the observer missions of the US-based National Democratic Institute (NDI) and the International Republican Institute (IRI) also termed the elections successful, adding that the voting offered evidence of Kabul’s commitment to democratization. Meanwhile, in his congratulatory remarks, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon referred to the "extremely challenging environment."
In their assessments, international observers appeared to focus mainly on the Taliban’s attempt to disrupt the polls. They paid far less attention to other electoral problems, including alleged irregularities carried out by government functionaries.
The Free and Fair Election Foundation of Afghanistan, an Afghan body, documented a widespread "lack of impartiality of election staff at the local level." It also recorded numerous cases of proxy voting and some voters’ use of multiple cards. It reported underage voting, and said it was difficult to judge the credibility of the elections at this stage.
Independent reports from around the country echoed the foundation’s findings. In her blog post on the elections, former EU diplomat and analyst with the Afghan Analysts Network, Martine Van Bijlert, wrote: "consistent and credible reports from the south and the southeast have been coming in for days now: massive and blatant ballot stuffing; the removal or invalidation of votes for rival candidates; complete overhaul of ballot boxes; intimidation of witnesses and IEC [Independent Election Commission] staff; systematic removal of the publicly displayed tally sheets."
Given the preoccupation with the insurgent threat, there has not been much attention paid to the possibility that low voter turnout provided more space for electoral manipulation. There are signs that suggest a large number of people have been deprived of their constitutional right to cast a ballot.
Addressing the issue of disenfranchisement during a news conference on August 22, the head of the NDI delegation, Kenneth Wollach, stated "disenfranchisement here takes on a different meaning" since it is "not the work of partisan actors, but the result of those trying to disrupt the elections. You cannot blame the IEC for it."
Regardless of who was responsible, Van Bijlert told EurasiaNet, voters were still deprived of their rights: "If there was a flood in the country and half the country couldn’t vote, that’s nobody’s fault but that doesn’t mean that the voters weren’t disenfranchised. That doesn’t mean that it was fine."
The European Union Mission, which termed the holding of elections as a "victory for the Afghan people" said the IEC "generally functioned efficiently" and that "the process seems at this stage to have been largely positive." Currently, the EU seems reluctant to address questions of fraud, saying it is too early in the process for any definitive assessment, and that only Afghans themselves could make the judgment.
By remaining tight-lipped, the EU mission threatens to undermine its credibility, some human rights advocates say. "An assessment this positive will be hard to [believe] for millions of Afghans in insecure parts of the country," said Rachel Reid, the Afghanistan researcher for Human Rights Watch.
The initial findings of the observer missions lauded the polling process and its fairness. Many local experts, however, say that irregularities appear to have been most prevalent in the insecure southern provinces, where most observer missions were unable to deploy. Some observers who did make it to southern areas remained confined to secured military compounds for the better part of election day.
While acknowledging that insecurity hampered their movements, the missions have been reticent in providing details of their election-day activities. Their conclusions, based solely on observations from the more secure areas where polling was less tainted, therefore may well provide only a partial, if not distorted, perception of the proceedings.
While the lack of official statistics from the IEC is certainly a constraint for diplomatic missions and international observers, even the right questions are not being asked at this stage, experts say.
Of half a dozen observer groups and a plethora of diplomatic representatives, only Democracy International (DI), pointed out the problems related to the IEC’s decision to withhold the vote count until five days after Election Day, terming it "unfortunate." DI has noted that releasing the partial results would be a way to enhance confidence in the process by increasing transparency.
Concerned analysts say that downplaying irregularities could have practical consequences for the democratization process. "Most observers are treating the election as if it is over, but I think the real contest is just beginning. The main question is how much blatant breaking of the law will be accepted for the sake of [what seems to bring] short-term stability," Van Bijlert said, adding, "Much of the fraud has been widespread, blatant and linked to government or electoral officials. If that is left unchallenged and unacknowledged, the message to the population is clear: this is how it is going to be."
Echoing these sentiments, Reid said, any attempt "to deny the full extent of the flaws in this election would only serve to further disenfranchise the Afghan electorate."
Editor's Note: Aunohita Mojumdar is an Indian freelance journalist based in Kabul. She has reported on the South Asian region for the past 19 years.
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Fraud Claims Question Poll Credibility
Election commission received over 400 complaints so far, with more than 40 possibly major enough to affect outcome.
Institute for War & Peace Reporting By Sayed Yaqub Ibrahimi in Kabul (ARR No. 334, 24-Aug-09)
Afghans are complaining that the last week’s elections were marred by serious fraud, in contrast to the international community’s assessment that voting was fair.
United States president Barack Obama hailed the presidential an provincial council vote on August 20 as “a success”, US special envoy to Afghanistan Richard Holbrooke professed himself “pleased” with the poll and the United Nations special envoy Kai Eide called it “a good day for Afghanistan”.
But to those a bit closer to the process, the elections were characterised by widespread fraud, intimidation and violence, to the point that many are seriously questioning the legitimacy and credibility of the results.
The results of the ballot will not be known for some time. While the Independent Election Commission, IEC, expects to announce the preliminary outcome as early as August 25, the definitive tally will not be released until the hundreds of complaints filed with the Electoral Complaints Commission, ECC, have been investigated and adjudicated.
The deadline for final results is September 17, but Afghan government and international officials are already warning that it may not be possible to meet it.
Nobody expected a perfect election, given Afghanistan’s ongoing war, ethnic divides and rampaging corruption. But even by the relatively modest standards set by the international community, the presidential poll appears to have been flawed, perhaps fatally.
ECC Chairman Grant Kippen told the media that his commission had received over 400 complaints to date, more than 40 of which may be major enough to affect the results of the elections.
Fahim Hakim, a member of the ECC, insisted that the violations would be taken seriously, “We want to assure the candidates that if there is a complaint we will investigate it.”
While no official vote counts have yet been released, media reports indicate that the incumbent, President Hamed Karzai, could have a possible landslide, perhaps as high as 72 per cent of the vote.
Dr Abdullah Abdullah, his former foreign minister, is in second place, with just over 23 per cent, while maverick reformer Ramazan Bashar Dost is running third. Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai, the brilliant and mercurial former finance minister, is a distant fourth.
If no candidate receives more than 50 per cent of the vote, then a runoff between the top two candidates will be held, most likely in early October.
Alleged violations fell into several categories, from technical glitches to direct attempts to skew results.
According to reports, some polling centres opened late, or not at all; in others there was a shortage of ballot papers; hole punchers, which were used to mark voter registration cards to prevent multiple voting, were not working, requiring some election workers to resort to using scissors; indelible ink, designed to prevent any individual voter from casting more than one ballot, was easily washed off in some cases.
Much more serious were incidents of alleged voter intimidation, ballot-box stuffing, and men casting votes on behalf of women.
Nader Nadery, head of the Free and Fair Election Foundation of Afghanistan, FEFA, the main election monitoring agency, with more than 7,000 observers throughout the country, told a press conference August 22 that he had proof of multiple irregularities.
“In Ghor, Laghman, Nooristan, Bamyan, and Ghazni voter registration cards have been distributed to persons under the age of 18,” he said. “Men in Laghman, Paktia, Paktika, Ghor and Balkh were casting votes instead of women.”
In many parts of Afghanistan, women are not allowed out without their husbands’ permission. Men have been reportedly allowed to show up with several voting cards for women in their households and cast multiple ballots.
Moreover, the fact that women are not photographed – due to cultural sensitivities – combined with the lack of a census or accurate birth records means that some of the women registered may not even exist.
All of the leading candidates, including Karzai, are complaining of fraud.
Dost demanded that the polling be halted early on election day when he was able to wash the ink off his finger.
“This ink is not indelible,” he said. “I asked Karzai and the American ambassador to stop the elections.”
Dost has made an official complaint to the ECC on the matter.
But the fuss over the ink, while widespread, distracts attention from the more serious alleged violations, which could have a far greater impact on the elections.
Other candidates are complaining of widespread and organised fraud, which includes stealing of ballot-boxes, ballot-box stuffing and direct voter intimidation.
Saleh Mohammad Registani, one of Abdullah’s chief campaign officials, announced confidently that his candidate would have won had there not been vote-rigging, “We have delivered around 40 complaints to the ECC. We hope they investigate.”
According to Registani, Abdullah’s team had made three suggestions to the ECC: first, quarantine the boxes in districts where fraud has been alleged; second, national and international observers should go to those areas and investigate; and third, if fraud is proven, the perpetrators should be prosecuted under the law.
“We will never accept this fraud, unless a detailed investigation is launched,” said Registani.
However, he stopped short of threatening violence, something that has worried some Afghan and international officials in recent weeks.
“Our reaction will be within the framework of the law,” he said.
Ghani has also filed close to 40 complaints with the ECC. “The numbers being given are not commensurate with the numbers of votes cast,” he told the media. “If this issue is not investigated by an impartial body, the legitimacy of the elections will be called into question.”
Mirwais Yasini, one the lesser presidential contenders, also said that he was sure that he would have won had there not been fraud.
Yasini received more attention from the international community than he did from the voters, meeting with several ambassadors and high-ranking international diplomats. But it did not seem to improve his standing among the voters.
Yasini claims that thousands of his votes were taken from ballot boxes in Kandahar and destroyed, then replaced with votes for another candidate.
“I have the support of the people of Afghanistan” he told reporters. “If there had not been fraud I would have been the winner.”
No one wants to point the finger, but most allegations revolve around the Karzai campaign team. Although Karzai himself is complaining of fraud too.
“We also have complaints,” said Wahid Omar, spokesperson for the Karzai team. “We have sent them to the ECC.”
Nonetheless, Karzai seems confident of victory.
“We are waiting for the announcement of the results by the IEC,” said Omar. “Whatever happens, provided that the responsible institutions confirm the transparency of the results, we will congratulate the wining candidate.”
Regardless of who ultimately wins, the next president may have some trouble convincing the electorate of his mandate.
“If the election is not transparent, the government that emerges from it will have no legitimacy,” said political analyst Fazel Rahman Orya. “We can talk about fraud in the election if, for example, 20 per cent of the votes have some problem.
“But I have followed this election very closely, and there is not even one percent transparency. What fraud can we talk about if the whole thing is a fraud?”
Sayed Yaqub Ibrahimi is an IWPR staff reporter.
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Abdullah Abdullah under pressure to concede to Hamid Karzai
The Telegraph, UK By Ben Farmer in Mazar-i-Sharif 08/24/2009
Hamid Karzai's main rival has come under international pressure to accept defeat in the presidential elections, his main backer has said.
Ustad Atta Mohammed Noor, governor of Balkh province, said the international community feared a defeat for Mr Karzai would worsen violence in the Taliban heartlands.
He said he and Abdullah Abdullah's campaign were being urged to making a deal with the president.
He said: "They have come to the conclusion that if Mr Karzai doesn't win, insecurity will increase in the south.
"Because of the insecurity situation, they are insisting we should go and work with the government. It's very difficult for us. They are saying we should not accept the will of the people."
Mr Noor said he had met with Richard Holbrooke, US envoy to Pakistan and Afghanistan, on Sunday and been left with the "impression" he wanted the Abdullah campaign to accept defeat.
A spokeswoman for the US embassy confirmed the meeting had taken place but said she did not know what had been discussed.
A strong, credible result in Afghanistan's second presidential elections is a key plank in western efforts to stabilise the country.
The United Nations and Barack Obama moved quickly to praise the poll on Thursday despite signs Taliban intimidation had scared off many voters.
The European Union election observer mission declared the process generally "good and fair", though Afghan observers catalogued instances of multiple voting, intimidation and underage voting.
Mr Noor was one of two governors to openly campaign for Dr Abdullah, the former foreign minister who emerged as Mr Karzai's closest rival.
Balkh had been seen as a stronghold for Dr Abdullah which could slide into unrest if his supporters felt the election had been stolen.
Both sides told the Daily Telegraph that they had won the prosperous province and their opponents were guilty of fraud.
Official preliminary results are not due until Tuesday and final results will follow in several weeks although early indications suggested Mr Karzai had won 72 per cent of the vote.
Mohammad Sabir Dawlatzai, deputy campaign manager for Mr Karzai said his polling station observers reported the president had gained 117,446 votes against 113,197 in Balkh.
Mr Noor said his own observers found Dr Abdullah won 163,000 against 96,000.
Dr Abdullah's campaign has lodged more than 100 official complaints nationwide of irregularity and vote rigging.
Mr Noor added: "The government is corrupt, the opium is rife also, but unfortunately fraud and the view of the international community suggest otherwise."
Many western observers believe the nationalistic Pashtun tribal south, where the Taliban insurgency is strongest, would reject the election of a non-Pashtun leader and slide further into chaos.
Mr Karzai hails from a distinguished Kandahar Pashtun family, while Dr Abdullah is half Tajik and has strong links with the Tajik and Uzbek Northern Alliance.
Balkh contains the prosperous central Asian trading hub of Mazar-i-Sharif and a mix of ethnic Tajiks, Uzbeks, Hazaras and some Pashtuns.
While Mr Noor supported Mr Karzai, the president was backed by a coalition of ethnic strongmen, including the Uzbek general Abdul Rashid Dostum and the Hazara leader Mohammad Mohaqiq.
Mr Noor denied his supporters would react violently if Mr Karzai won.
He said: "If there's big fraud, we will negotiate with our own people.
We will not commit violence. We are not going to kill any one or disturb anyone."
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Afghanistan's future is still in peril
Editorial Desk The Nation (Thailand) 26-08-2009
Given the volatile political and security situation in Afghanistan, the ongoing spitting contest between President Hamid Karzai and his leading challenger, Abdullah Abdullah should not be easily dismissed as politics as usual. It is not unreasonable to think that the offensive nature of their dispute - accusing one another of fraud and vote-rigging - could have grave consequences for Afghanistan's fragile democracy. Recent polls suggested that Karzai is expected to come out ahead, but it is unlikely he will carry 50 per cent of the vote plus one needed to avoid a run-off in October. The election was held on August 20.
With the Pashtun in the south backing Karzai, and ethnic Tajiks, the second largest group, situated in the upper region north of Kabul, supporting Abdullah Abdullah, there is a real concern that another wedge could be driven through the country along geographical and ethnic lines. Abdullah Abdullah may be half-Tajik and half-Pashtun but he is closely aligned with the Tajik-dominated Northern Alliance, the outfit that ousted the Taleban from Kabul in late 2001.
Historically, Afghanistan's leaders have been Pashtuns. Changing that tradition through the ballot box or any other means could spell disaster for this ethnically diverse nation. This probably explains why Karzai chose Mohammad Fahim, a Tajik, and Karim Khalili, a Hazara, as his two vice presidents. Given the ethnically diversity within the country, it is important that no one group feels left out.
It goes without saying, but hasty claims of victory could spell trouble later in the day. For the time being, after warnings from US special envoy Richard Holbrooke, the two leading contenders have agreed to direct their complaints to the election commission. But from the look of it, this agreement might not last long, as tension mounts between the two camps.
While it is unlikely the world will see the kind of outburst witnessed in Iran following the recent election there, one cannot deny the frustration among the Afghan masses who had hoped that their country would move on and away from politics as usual, in which warlords and the political elite call the shots while the voices of the ordinary people, especially the younger generation, are overlooked.
Election commission or not, there isn't much of a state mechanism, or state institutions, in Afghanistan to keep the lid on the problem should frustrations turn into bloodshed or fuel further ethnic rivalries. Nevertheless, praise should be given to the ordinary Afghans who braved the Taliban's threats, and showed up at polling stations across the country to exercise their electoral rights.
But time may be running out for the Kabul government as important donors like Germany and America are forced to talk about an exit strategy for their troops. Withdrawing troops at this point in time would jeopardise any hope of self-sustaining security for Afghanistan. Regardless of who becomes Afghanistan's next president, he is going to have to come up with some concrete results very quickly indeed.
No one has ever said that being the president of Afghanistan is an easy job. But it is generally agreed that Karzai could have done a better job in terms of empowering the ordinary people instead of focusing on deal-making with the warlords. Perhaps the international community was at fault, too, for not doing enough to empower Karzai through much-needed independent support. And in the absence of such support, Karzai naturally turned to the men with guns and troops. From the perspective of the international community, it seems that Karzai did not do enough to crack down on corruption and the opium trade that fuels the insurgency.
This past Sunday (August 23), Pakistani police in Karachi - a port city of 16 million inhabitants, where militants' activities and networks are well established - arrested seven militants along with two kilograms of Afghan heroin, three suicide bomb vests, and 15 kg of explosive materials. Given the fact that more than 90 per cent of the world's opium comes from Afghanistan, 15 kg of heroin - which requires about 150 kg of opium to make - is not even a drop in the bucket.
If anything, this recent bust shows how much more work the international community has to do to bring an end to this problem. A stable Afghanistan is in the interests of the rest of the world. One cannot address the drug problem without addressing the security problem in the country.
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Durham appointed to investigate CIA abuses
Press TV August 25, 2009
The US justice department says prosecutor John Durham has been nominated to investigate interrogation abuses by CIA officials and contractors.
The US Attorney General Eric Holder Jr. said on Monday that Durham will lead the investigation into alleged violations of anti-terror laws and more than a dozen cases in which terror suspects were threatened.
The investigation follows the newly declassified Department of Justice report which revealed some of the tactics used by CIA interrogators.
In one case an interrogator threatened to kill the children of one September 11 suspect. Another suspect was reportedly forced to watch his mother sexually assaulted.
The 'harsh interrogation tactics' were employed by the CIA in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks. The interrogators threatened one detainee with a gun and a power drill and tried to frighten another with a mock execution of another prisoner.
Durham is mandated to find whether there is enough evidence to launch a full-scale criminal investigation of current and former CIA personnel who may have broken the law in their dealings with the detainees.
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Four US soldiers killed in Afghanistan unrest
Tue Aug 25, 9:06 am ET
KABUL (AFP) – Four US soldiers operating under NATO were killed Tuesday in a bomb blast in southern Afghanistan, the alliance said.
The troops were operating under NATO's International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) and were killed in a region of Afghanistan where a Taliban-led insurgency is at its most virulent, ISAF said in a statement.
It did not disclose the exact location of the incident.
"Four International Security Assistance Force service members were killed today as a result of an improvised explosive device (IED) detonation that occurred in southern Afghanistan," the statement said.
Quoting Navy Chief Petty Officer Brian Naranjo, the statement said the soldiers were Americans.
The troopers were on a patrol "in one of the most violent areas of Afghanistan" when the incident took place, the statement said.
The latest casualties bring to 63 the number of foreign soldiers who have died in Afghanistan this month, and to 295 the death toll since January.
This year has been the deadliest for the foreign military deployment in Afghanistan since they arrived in 2001 after toppling the Taliban regime.
The Taliban, which had been in power since 1996, have escalated their insurgency each year, prompting President Barack Obama's administration to send additional troops in an effort to defeat the Islamist rebels.
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Media watchdog condemns killing of Afghan reporter in Pakistan
ISLAMABAD, Aug. 25 (Xinhua) -- The Press for Peace (PFP), a media watchdog and humanitarian organization, on Tuesday expressed deep concern over the brutal killing of an Afghan journalist in northwest Pakistan's tribal area, the private NNI news agency reported.
PFP Executive Director Zafar Iqbal, while condemning the shocking incident, said the Pakistani government must bring to justice those responsible for the murder of an innocent journalist.
Janullah Hashim, 40, was returning from Afghanistan to Peshawar, the capital city of North West Frontier Province, in a passenger coach when militants ambushed the vehicle near Jamrud town of Khyber tribal agency, a known stronghold of Taliban militants near Pak-Afghan border.
Shamim Shahid, the head of the local press club in Peshawar said on Monday that Hashim had been targeted because his reporting had upset key players in the region.
"Hashim was very critical of the Taliban, and some of his reporting was unacceptable both to Pakistani and Afghan governments and intelligence agencies," Shahid was quoted as saying in a statement.
"He had too much information regarding the militants, the Taliban and the intelligence agencies," Shahid added.
The PFP executive director, quoting international media organizations, said that seven journalists had been killed in the northwestern Pakistan in the past two years, which he said had been branded the world's most dangerous regions for journalists.
At least two Pakistani journalists have been killed this year alone in the region, which is also the location of frequent bomb attacks, he said.
Iqbal asked international humanitarian and media groups to forcefully condemn atrocious killings of journalist in terrorism-hit areas of Pakistan.
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Vote fraud allegations increase in Afghanistan
USA TODAY By Jim Michaels 24 Aug 2009
KABUL - Afghan presidential candidate Ramazan Bashardost jumped out of his chair Sunday when he saw the news photographers and started yelling at election officials who were tallying votes in a warehouse.
"Some documents have no serial numbers," he shouted, pointing at a stack of papers.
Soon representatives of another candidate, Abdullah Abdullah, and of President Hamid Karzai entered the fray, screaming and gesturing. Startled workers kept their heads down and continued to examine documents.
There are no hanging chads, but Afghanistan's electoral process is starting to resemble the Florida recount effort in 2000 even before preliminary results are announced Tuesday. Afghanistan's second presidential election since the Taliban regime was ousted in 2001 has created political uncertainty as officials attempt to count the votes amid fraud allegations from all sides.
Election officials say it will take weeks to sort through the ballots and investigate the allegations before knowing who the next president is.
About 225 complaints have been filed with Afghanistan's Electoral Complaints Commission, including 35 serious enough to sway the results if confirmed, the commission announced Sunday. The serious allegations concern intimidation and stuffing of ballot boxes. Many more complaints, from voters and campaigns, are likely to be filed as ballot boxes come in from around the country.
"We anticipate hundreds, if not thousands, of complaints," Scott Worden, an electoral complaints commissioner, said in an interview Sunday. In the 2005 parliamentary elections, there were 1,500 complaints.
Election officials caution that the vote tally and investigation into possible fraud will take time. "What we don't want is there to be confusion," Worden said.
Richard Holbrooke, the U.S. special envoy to Afghanistan, said allegations of vote rigging and fraud are to be expected, but it's too soon to question the legitimacy of the vote.
"We have disputed elections in the United States. There may be some questions here. That wouldn't surprise me at all. I expect it," Holbrooke told AP Television News in the western city of Herat. "But let's not get out ahead of the situation."
He said the U.S. and other countries "will respect the process set up by Afghanistan itself."
Mohammad Farid Afghanzai, a spokesman for the Independent Election Commission, said he could not estimate what percentage of the vote would be known by Tuesday when the commission starts releasing results. Some voting materials have yet to arrive in Kabul from remote mountain villages, where donkeys were used to deliver ballots before the election. On Sunday, trucks with tally sheets and ballot boxes rolled into an elections commission compound outside Kabul.
In the warehouse, workers entered numbers from handwritten tally sheets into computers. Candidates or their representatives could watch the process but were not allowed to interfere.
Complete, unofficial results should be announced in about two weeks, with the vote being certified around Sept. 17 after the commission completes investigating fraud allegations. If no candidate wins 50% of the vote, the top two contenders will be in a runoff.
Karzai's main challenger, Abdullah, continued to level fraud charges at Karzai's government and said he will use the next several weeks to press his claims with the complaints commission.
"I'll fight until the last vote," Abdullah told USA TODAY.
Turnout was low in many parts of the country, particularly in the south, where the U.S. military is mounting a major offensive against Taliban strongholds.
Gen. Zahir Azimi, a spokesman for Afghanistan's Defense Ministry, said the Taliban spent millions of dollars to disrupt Thursday's vote. He said there were about 135 security incidents on election day, about three times the usual level.
Azimi acknowledged that the violence and threats dampened turnout. "But it wasn't at the level to undermine the legitimacy of the election," he said.
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Pakistan must 'exploit Taliban leadership rifts'
By Charlotte McDonald-Gibson August 25, 2009
(AFP) – ISLAMABAD — Pakistan must exploit rifts among Taliban commanders jostling to inherit the brutal legacy of rebel chief Baitullah Mehsud, analysts say, or risk the power vacuum being filled by Al-Qaeda.
An heir apparent, Hakimullah Mehsud, has emerged in the battle to succeed Mehsud after his reported death near the Afghan border, but analysts and officials told AFP that infighting continued despite the claims and swirling rumours.
On August 5, a missile from a US drone slammed into a house deep in the mountains of South Waziristan where Mehsud was said to be receiving medical treatment, with Pakistani officials certain the feared warlord died.
Desperate to salvage unity among Taliban footsoldiers, the Islamist militia insists he is simply ill, but that has not stopped a fierce battle breaking out for the reins of power and command over his fighters.
"There is a possibility they (the Taliban) could split if the government and the military and the intelligence agencies exploit the situation. It is a window of opportunity," defence analyst Talat Masood told AFP.
The infighting also comes after a military operation against the Taliban in northwest Swat valley, where the army claims to have "eliminated" extremists.
But the consequences of not taking further action could be dire, analysts say, with either a new militant boss emerging and staging spectacular attacks in a show of strength, or a dangerous power void opening up in the tribal belt.
"In the beginning, each one of them -- in order to consolidate his power -- will probably commit ruthless acts," said Masood.
And if no clear leader emerges from the fray and the government does not step in, other militant groups could take advantage of a lawless hideout straddling Pakistan and Afghanistan.
"Al-Qaeda fills in the vacuum of leadership," Masood warned.
"They could exploit the situation as they did in Afghanistan and more or less took over the responsibility of leadership during Mullah Omar's period," he said, referring to the 1996-2001 Taliban government in Afghanistan.
Analyst and columnist Shafqat Mahmood said that Al-Qaeda also had the advantage of access to funds from overseas.
"When you have too much internal squabbling, sometimes somebody from outside can become the least unwelcome person," he said.
The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) umbrella militant group has been blamed for hundreds of deadly attacks across Pakistan since Mehsud took the leadership in July 2007 and began commanding the Islamists from his tribal fiefdom.
There are a handful of contenders to succeed him, with TTP deputy Maulvi Faqir Mohammad last week briefly claiming leadership, before anointing senior Mehsud henchman Hakimullah Mehsud to the top spot.
But analysts and officials say that another Taliban faction wants to see top commander Wali-ur Rehman at the helm.
"Various signals indicate that the battle for succession is still on. There is still a confusion, nothing is clear," said Brigadier Mahmood Shah, former security chief of Pakistan's northwest tribal areas.
Confirming the rifts with the Taliban themselves is difficult, with militant commanders only calling reporters when they want to comment.
So far, there has been no word from Rehman and his faction.
But speaking on the condition of anonymity, one Taliban commander from the tribal areas told AFP that Mehsud named Rehman as his successor in his will.
Masood said the government and military must play a clever game to further rip at the fabric of the militant structure, with a sustained military presence in the tribal belt coupled with intensified intelligence efforts.
Writing in London's Evening Standard newspaper, veteran Pakistani journalist and author Ahmed Rashid said that the government now had an "unprecedented opportunity to turn the tide against the Taliban and Al-Qaeda."
Rashid advocated a similar assault in the tribal belt to the one in Swat earlier this year, and said there was strong US pressure for such action.
But columnist Mahmood cautioned against too much interference in the fiercely independent tribal areas.
"If they are killing each other, I don't think the government should have any problem with that. If they introduce an outside element it's quite possible they stop fighting each other and start fighting the government," he said.
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Holbrooke: Persian Gulf oil money fuels Taliban insurgencies
Tue August 25, 2009
ISTANBUL, Turkey (CNN) -- America's top diplomat for Afghanistan and Pakistan says the deadly Taliban insurgency in those countries relies heavily on funding from the oil-rich Persian Gulf.
Such money even outpaces the cash gathered from Afghanistan's multibillion-dollar exports of opium and heroin, said Richard Holbrooke, the United States' special envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan, in an interview Tuesday with CNN.
"It seems to be more from individuals carrying money in their suitcases," Holbrooke said. "Sometimes they are taking advantage of the pilgrimage [to the Muslim holy cities of Mecca and Medina in Saudi Arabia]. Sometimes from hawala [an informal international system for money transfers]. Sometimes from charities.
"It is an important part of the war. ... The Taliban is not a high-tech expensive organization."
U.S. and NATO troops in Afghanistan have suffered high losses this summer at the hands of Taliban insurgents.
Holbrooke gave the interview to CNN on the sidelines of a Friends of Democratic Pakistan meeting in Istanbul. The meeting was attended by delegations from more than a dozen countries and international organizations, including the foreign ministers of Pakistan, Turkey, Sweden, Canada, the United Arab Emirates and Iran.
Members of the American and Iranian delegations walked past each other in the ornate marble halls of the 19th century Ottoman palace on the banks of the Bosporus Strait where the meeting took place, but did not interact openly in the picturesque venue.
Holbrooke missed a group photo attended by Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, one aide said, due to a problem of miscommunication. And Holbrooke said that, due to a bilateral meeting with another delegation, he was not in the conference room when the Iranian diplomat delivered remarks. He insisted he was not deliberately avoiding his Iranian counterpart.
"I saw them, they were in the room," Holbrooke said. "The Iranian made generally positive statements ... about supporting a democratic Pakistan."
Diplomats said much of Tuesday's meeting focused on rebuilding parts of northwestern Pakistan damaged when another round of fighting broke out between Taliban insurgents and the Pakistani military last spring. The conflict forced more than a million Pakistanis to flee their homes.
Holbrooke said one of the top priorities of the Obama administration in the region has been to help Afghanistan hold presidential elections, which took place on August 20.
That election was marred by Taliban violence, which claimed the lives of at least 26 people on election day. Opposition candidates have accused the government of incumbent president Hamid Karzai of fraud and the stuffing of ballot boxes, charges Karzai officials deny.
"That's politics, Afghan-style," Holbrooke told CNN. "That happens in Western democracies as well. We have charges repeatedly in American elections by candidates that the other side is not allowing [would-be voters] to register. We should not be surprised that democracy is imperfect even in Western countries. And Afghanistan has had unique difficulties in holding this election. So let's see what happens."
Holbrooke is urging observers to wait for the results of an investigation by Afghanistan's Electoral Complaints Commission.
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US plans long-term training center for war in Afghanistan
Press TV August 24, 2009
The US plans to launch an intelligence organization at US Central Command that will train military officers, covert agents and analysts who will commit to Afghanistan and Pakistan for 10 years.
The Commander of US Central Command, General David Petraeus' decision comes as some US military officials say the war in Afghanistan is getting tougher and security is deteriorating.
The Center for Afghanistan Pakistan Excellence will be headed by Derek Harvey, a retired colonel in the Defense Intelligence Agency whose analysis on insurgency rise and fall in Iraq proved accurate, The Washington Times reported on Monday.
The center would benefit from counterinsurgency methods and intelligence analyses obtained in Iraq, Harvey told the daily in an exclusive interview.
"If you only rely on the intelligence reporting, you can get a skewed picture of the situation," he said, calling the new approach "widening the aperture."
"In Afghanistan, we are planning for success, and that requires human capital. We are putting into place the things we need to do for that," Harvey told the daily.
The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Adm. Mike Mullen had earlier described the situation in Afghanistan as "serious" and "deteriorating", warning that the Taliban insurgency had gotten more sophisticated.
Mullen would not say whether the fight would require more than the 68,000 troops the administration has already committed, but expressed concern about the falling public support for the war which the US President Barack Obama has called one of "necessity."
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Canada says not to contribute troops to Afghanistan
People's Daily - Aug 25 11:42 PM
Canada will not contribute troops to Afghanistan after the scheduled deadline of early 2011 and NATO should press other member countries to send more soldiers, Defense Minister Peter MacKay said Tuesday.
There has been no any direct pressure from the U.S. government yet for Canada to extend its combat mission beyond 2011 but even if it really happens Canada will say no, the minister said at a press conference in Quebec.
"I think there's a continued call to NATO allies for them to contribute more," MacKay said.
"But there are many countries in line before Canada that should be approached before they would come knocking on our door, I would suggest to you."
The comments come as senior U.S. military officers are going public with their demand for more troops, and admitting the conflict is not going well for NATO.
Canada has been sending troops to Afghanistan since 2002 and as fatalities rise most of the public now oppose the deployment. The Parliament has approved a resolution that Canada's combat mission in Afghanistan will end in 2011. The Conservative government has reiterated that the troops will come back home on time on many occasions.
Last month, Ottawa rejected a demand for extending the mission from the new NATO head Anders Fogh Rasmussen.
Source: Xinhua
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Pakistan Says West Must Cut Source of Taliban’s Funding, Arms
Bloomberg By Ed Johnson Aug. 25, 2009
Pakistan defended its fight against Islamic extremism and called on Western governments to choke off funding and arms supplies to Taliban insurgents.
Sardar Tariq Azizuddin, the country’s ambassador to Turkey, said people should question how the Taliban grew strong enough to take on NATO and U.S. forces.
“What is the source of Taliban funding and what is the source of their weapons supply?” Azizuddin said in an interview with Turkish media, the state-run Associated Press of Pakistan reported yesterday. “Nobody either talks about it or wants to talk about it.”
The Obama administration says Taliban and al-Qaeda militants in Pakistan’s northwestern tribal regions threaten the stability of the nuclear-armed nation and hamper the war effort by the U.S. and NATO in neighboring Afghanistan.
Turkey was hosting a meeting of the so-called Friends of Democratic Pakistan, which includes the U.S., China, Saudi Arabia and the World Bank. The group promotes international support for Pakistan as it aims to overcome security and development challenges.
The government in Islamabad says it is winning its fight against extremists and that the Taliban is in disarray after rebel chief Baitullah Mehsud was killed in a missile strike earlier this month.
Mehsud led a force of 5,000 fighters in the South Waziristan tribal region, after forming the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan alliance in 2007, according to U.S. military analysts.
Swat Valley
The government also hails its 10-week offensive against insurgents in the northwestern Swat Valley as a sign of success, saying militants have been cleared from towns and villages.
“The armed forces secured the main areas and are mopping up some elements on the fringes,” APP cited Azizuddin as saying.
The anti-Taliban offensive by NATO and U.S.-led forces in Afghanistan has pushed militants across the border and “aggravated the situation in our country,” the ambassador said, according to the report.
After a U.S.-led alliance toppled the Taliban regime in Afghanistan in 2001, guerrillas fled to bases in Pakistan where they re-armed and trained, according to U.S. intelligence agencies. The insurgency has grown, with militants crossing back and forth across the frontier.
The illicit opium trade, worth as much as $470 million last year, is a major financial pillar for the Taliban, funding training bases and buying weapons and explosives, according to the United Nations.
Admiral Michael Mullen, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, told CNN yesterday that Afghanistan’s security is getting worse as the Taliban insurgency grows “more sophisticated.”
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Over 20 schools attacked on election day
KABUL, 24 August 2009 (IRIN) - At least 26 schools in different parts of Afghanistan were attacked by Taliban insurgents on 20 August - election day - apparently because they were being used as polling stations, according to the Ministry of Education (MoE).
"Of the 2,742 schools used as voting centres, 11 were attacked in Logar [Province], two in Khost, three in Kunduz, two in Baghlan, two in Kandahar, two in Laghman and four in Wardak Province," MoE spokesman Asif Nang told IRIN.
No casualties have been reported because students were off that day, MoE officials said.
The UN Children's Fund (UNICEF), NGOs and rights watchdogs strongly opposed the use of schools as polling stations during the elections.
"There will be long-term misperceptions and security implications for students, teachers and the education sector as a whole," said Ajmal Samadi, director of an Afghan rights watchdog, whose organization - Afghanistan Rights Monitor - had asked the Independent Electoral Commission and MoE not to use schools in the elections.
However, MoE's Nang said: "We stand ready to make more and bigger sacrifices for the elections and similar important processes."
MoE said the schools were only partially damaged and the attacks had not caused disruption to classes.
Nang said the attacked schools were hit by rockets, missiles and improvised explosives, adding that efforts were under way to repair the damage.
Targeted
Insurgents have increasingly targeted schools: In 2008, UNICEF documented 292 attacks on schools, in which 92 people were killed and 169 injured.
From January to 30 June 2009, UNICEF recorded 171 school incidents, in which 60 students and teachers were killed.
Owing to insecurity and threats, at least 435 schools remain closed mostly in volatile southern, eastern and central provinces, according to MoE.
Over six million students - about 32 percent of them female - are currently enrolled at schools. However, school attendance ratios are believed to vary widely from province to province, especially among girls.
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Over 47, 000 Afghan refugees repatriated in three months
APP Aug 24, 2009
ISLAMABAD - Over 47,000 Afghan refugees have been repatriated from Pakistan during April to June this year, but now the repatriation process is suspended due to operational reasons. A representative of UNHCR, Muhammad Asif told APP, here on Monday, that UNHCR-assisted voluntary repatriation of Afghans through Peshawar in North-West Frontier Province has been temporarily suspended.
He said that UNHCR’s Voluntary Repatriation Centre (VRC) in Hayatabad will remain closed until further notice.
Registered Afghans wishing to return home via Hayatabad VRC are advised to check with UNHCR staff before they start the repatriation process, he added.
The Afghan refugees could contact the offices of UNHCR in Peshawar and Quetta for information.
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Our Afghan Ambassador: The Man in the Middle
The New Republic By Roland Flamini 08/23/2009
When Zalmay Khalilzad was U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan in the aftermath of the 2002 war, it was a given that President Hamid Karzai would never make a decision without first consulting him. And Khalilzad also ruled over the American agencies in the country, including the military. More than ambassador, Afghan-born Khalilzad was America’s pro-consul in Kabul.
U.S. Army Lieutenant General Karl W.Eikenberry, the ambassador nominated by Barack Obama earlier this year, enjoys no such pre-eminence. The appointment of a career military man as ambassador was seen in Washington as highly unusual, but Eikenberry came with the right credentials--two prior tours of duty in Afghanistan, and good NATO connections from his time as commanding general of combined U.S. and NATO forces in the Afghan war and from his more recent (2008) stint as deputy chairman of the NATO military committee in Brussels. Moreover, while serving in Afghanistan in 2002-2003, Eikenberry was among the first to warn of the Taliban resurgence and to call for a more robust military effort to contain and suppress it.
But as Obama has grown more determined not to allow what last week he called the "war of necessity" to degenerate into his Vietnam, more cooks have been assigned to stir the Afghan pot--some with bigger spoons than Eikenberry's, and the ambassador "is being outgunned, and even marginalized," says one well-informed source who spoke anonymously because he is not authorized to comment on the situation.
For the first time in its history, the State Department has appointed a deputy ambassador, career ambassador Frank Ricciardone, to the embassy in Kabul instead of the more usual deputy chief of mission. The appointment is presumably intended to provide Eikenberry with high-level diplomatic expertise, but some believe it also gives State a backchannel to the embassy.
When, earlier this month, Eikenberry sent a memo to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton making the case for an additional $2.5 billion (to the $4.1 billion already committed) in non-military spending in 2010, Deputy Secretary of State Jack Lew said--somewhat archly, it was thought--that "the [Kabul] embassy had done a lot of good work" but the department was "still working on it." He added that there was enough money in the pipeline (about $6 billion) for Afghanistan already.
Casting his shadow over Eikenberry's operation is Richard Holbrooke, the president’s special envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan recently described by The New York Times as "looming, theatrical, passionate, indignant." To nobody's surprise who knows him, Holbrooke has in effect taken over the South Asia division at State, and runs it from his office near the Foggy Bottom cafeteria. His public statements acknowledge Eikenberry's ambassadorial role, but leave little doubt whom he thinks is in overall charge.
The gap in perceptions was visible the other day when Holbrooke said the Taliban had failed in its attempt to derail the Afghan elections, and Eikenberry declared he was reluctant to urge Afghans to go out and vote in the face of Taliban threats of violence. "We know that on election day there won't be perfect security out there, so I have no advice to give the Afghan common citizen, the common man," Eikenberry was quoted as saying.
Eikenberry also has to deal with the powerful military triumvirate of Generals David Petraeus, John Abizaid, and the new Afghan commander Stanley McCrystal. That relationship is generally harmonious, except that, as ambassador, Eikenberry officially supports a policy of inclusiveness for Afghans in security and reconstruction in the midst of an escalating U.S. military offensive. "So the turf war as usual is between the army and State," says the well-informed source. "But not only that, the diplomacy is top-heavy and has a bunch of different agendas and strategies, raising the question of who's actually running the store."
A European diplomat in Washington thought it unlikely that Eikenberry would allow himself to be marginalized, but added, "For a former field commander accustomed to a lot of latitude, he must at times certainly feel boxed in--frustratingly hamstrung." Afghanistan expert Vanda Felbab-Brown of Brookings, the Washington think tank, says Eikenberry faces the constant challenge of reconciling "competing priorities, approaches, and performances of the various agencies [that] manifest themselves with every issue." Still, she thinks he has "the right skills" for bringing "synergy to the military and civilian efforts."
Eikenberry’s job may get harder, though. If Karzai is re-elected, as seems likely, Eikenberry may also have to parry with Zalmay Khalilzad. The Obama administration is seriously thinking of appointing him to be the chief executive to oversee the Karzai government, and vigilate against corruption--and it’s hard to imagine that the former pro-consul will take a less hands-on approach as a CEO
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It's too early to get cold feet on Afghanistan
Philadelphia Inquirer By Trudy Rubin 08/23/2009
Even before Afghans went to the polls last week, Americans were getting queasy about U.S. involvement in Afghanistan.
At this writing, the election results are still unclear. But with 60,000 U.S. troops in the country and a chance that their commanders will request more, a recent Washington Post-ABC poll indicated 51 percent of Americans said they believed it was not worth fighting a war there. Seventy percent of the doubters are Democrats, which must give President Obama pause. And only 24 percent of Americans would back sending more forces.
Their concerns are understandable. But it's far too early - and far too dangerous - for Americans to get cold feet.
I understand why so many Americans are worried; I am, too. Whatever the election outcome, Afghanistan will have a weak central government, riddled with corruption and reluctant to take on the drug mafia that funds the Taliban. The Afghan army and police are in their infancy and unreliable.
Moreover, if the purpose of the exercise is, as Obama argues, to "disrupt, dismantle, and defeat" al-Qaeda, why are we sending troops into the Afghan maw? After all, al-Qaeda and its hard-line Taliban supporters are based in the wild Pakistani tribal areas along the Afghan border. So, some ask, why not minimize our presence in Afghanistan and focus on stabilizing Pakistan, which has both terrorists and nukes?
Having spent time in both Afghanistan and Pakistan, most recently in May, I'd argue one cannot address the problem in one country without stabilizing both.
Yes, the central problem lies in Pakistan, where local jihadis and al-Qaeda seek to destabilize the state and get hold of its nuclear weapons. They also would like to provoke a war with nuclear-armed India by carrying out terrorist attacks there.
But al-Qaeda is linked with senior Afghan Taliban leaders. Mullah Omar may have started out as a primitive rural Islamist with limited goals, but he and other top Afghan Taliban are now joined to a broader jihadi conglomerate with larger aspirations. Were his mullahs to retake control of much of Afghanistan, the ripple effect would strengthen terrorists in Pakistan.
Of course, the Obama team should spare no effort to help Pakistan confront its internal dangers. But this will be a frustrating process because Pakistan remains ambivalent about fighting the Taliban.
Although the Pakistani military recently took on one Taliban group in the Swat Valley after it had threatened Islamabad, the country's security elite still hesitates to confront other jihadis. Pakistan's military and much of its political class still see India, not the jihadis, as their main enemy. This shortsightedness is chilling and could be suicidal.
Moreover, the Pakistani military declines to confront the Afghan Taliban for another reason: It thinks the United States will soon quit Afghanistan and favors a Taliban government there that would be hostile to India. Members of Pakistan's security elite helped Mullah Omar's men in the 1990s, and they think they can control a restored Taliban regime in Kabul.
I believe they are very wrong.
Top U.S. officials, both civilian and military, are trying to change this mind-set. They are urging Pakistan's security elite to recognize the extent of the jihadi threat and are offering extensive military and economic aid.
In the meantime, something must be done to prevent the Afghan situation from deteriorating further. I found U.S. military commanders and civilian officials to be starkly realistic about what they face.
Their goal is not to create a perfect democracy or a strong central government. Rather, they seek to work with effective Afghan cabinet ministers (there are some), along with provincial and local officials, to funnel economic aid into grassroots job creation. Meanwhile, the training of Afghan security forces will be ramped up, and an effort made to target drug lords.
In the best-case scenario, they would be able to peel off local Taliban fighters and midlevel commanders who are in the fight for the money. These "accidental guerrillas" make up the bulk of Taliban manpower; polls show most Afghans don't want the return of the Taliban but do want jobs and a better life.
Such gains might convince Pakistanis that it's pointless to bank on a Taliban revival, even as U.S. diplomats work to revive Pakistan-India talks and to persuade Pakistan to confront the jihadis.
True, this strategy has many moving parts and offers no guarantees. But at the moment, I don't see a better one. And I keep imagining an alternative scenario, in which jihadis based on the AfPak border get their hands on nukes.
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