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Afghanistan piles pressure on a war 'fatigued' world
Wed Dec 17, 2:48 am ET
KABUL (AFP) – The US military machine is building up its presence in Afghanistan after paying what its leaders admit is a "frightful" cost in Iraq, while no one in the West can wants to predict where the next surprise war will erupt in 2009.
Afghan TV comedy plays on Bush shoe incident
Wed Dec 17, 3:42 am ET
KABUL (AFP) – A hugely popular Afghan comedy show is to reconstruct the infamous George W. Bush shoe hurling incident -- only this time the US president gets it in the face.
NATO says Afghan security will improve in 2009
KABUL (AFP) – A top NATO commander said Wednesday Afghanistan's dire security situation will improve next year as more foreign troops arrive and the new US administration takes office.
Our Fight Is Your Fight, Afghan Leaders Tell Europe
PARIS (AFP)--Afghan governors urged Europe to stand by them in the fight against foreign-based militants Wednesday, warning that "terrorism" would spread unless the battle is won.
US: Afghan supply line fine, but drivers cite risk
By JASON STRAZIUSO and RAHIM FAIEZ, Associated Press Writers – Tue Dec 16, 1:21 pm ET
BAGRAM AIR BASE, Afghanistan – Traveling in a convoy of 30 supply trucks escorted by security guards, the young Afghan driver hauled bottled water through Afghanistan's dangerous south to a U.S. outpost in Helmand province.
US: 3 militants killed in raid in Afghanistan
By RAHIM FAIEZ, Associated Press Writer – Wed Dec 17, 6:26 am ET
KABUL, Afghanistan – U.S. troops and Afghan police raided a compound housing people with al-Qaida links in eastern Afghanistan, killing three militants, the U.S. military said Wednesday.
'Spies' killed by Pakistan Taliban
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan, Dec. 17 (UPI) -- A Pakistani Taliban video sent to the BBC shows the killing of five tribal men accused of aiding in the Jan. 19 death of al-Qaida leader Abu Laith al-Libi.
U.N.'s Afghan mission to expand
By Golnar Motevalli
KABUL (Reuters) – The United Nations mission in Afghanistan will soon have its budget doubled and staff numbers increased to more than 2,000 from 1,500, the U.N.'s special envoy said Wednesday.
Berlin earmarks additional 3m euros for Afghan police
Berlin, Dec 16, IRNA
Germany is allocating an additional three million euros for rebuilding the Afghan police force, the German Foreign Ministry said in a press release here Tuesday.
Bid to split Taliban, Al Qaeda
By Anand Gopal – The Christian Science Monitor via Yahoo! News - Tue Dec 16, 3:00 am EST
Kabul, Afghanistan – The Afghan government and its allies are reconciling with moderates and isolating hard-liners in a bid to split the insurgency, Western and Afghan officials say.
Year of the Afghan mission
Globe and Mail ROLAND PARIS December 17, 2008
During last September's federal election campaign, Prime Minister Stephen Harper made a surprising declaration: Canada's military would leave not only Kandahar but all of Afghanistan in 2011. Mr. Harper
Paris bomb scare raises question: jihadis, or not?
By Robert Marquand – The Christian Science Monitor via Yahoo! News - Wed Dec 17, 3:00 am EST
Paris – The first words in the Paris bomb warning letter – "We are from the Afghan revolutionary front" – already show something unusual. The group or persons leaving five old sticks of dynamite in a men's room
Parliament drafts legislation to force election
Written by www.quqnoos.com Wednesday, 17 December 2008
MPs demand that Election Commission sets date for a spring election
Afghan greenhouses to shut due to heater shortage
Written by www.quqnoos.com Tuesday, 16 December 2008
Up to 90% lack heaters to keep cultivation going 365 days a year, says ministry
Balkh power shortages frustrate residents
Written by www.quqnoos.com Tuesday, 16 December 2008 16:26
Shortfall of over 30 megawatts keeps northern province in the dark
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Afghanistan piles pressure on a war 'fatigued' world
Wed Dec 17, 2:48 am ET
KABUL (AFP) – The US military machine is building up its presence in Afghanistan after paying what its leaders admit is a "frightful" cost in Iraq, while no one in the West can wants to predict where the next surprise war will erupt in 2009.
Conflicts that resurged in Democratic Republic of Congo or festered in Sudan's Darfur region and Somalia gave a stark reminder just how overstretched the developed world's armies are. The United Nations struggled to raise troops and equipment for any of the hostile zones where thousands have died in 2008.
Russia's five day war with Georgia in August showed how a conflict can appear from nowhere and some experts are convinced that the economic crisis could push a struggling state into a new war that the world can ill afford.
Afghanistan has taken over from Iraq as the war causing most worry.
There are now about 70,000 international troops in Afghanistan, including about 32,000 Americans and more than 8,000 British. But the country has been through its worst year since the Taliban government was ousted in 2001.
The Taliban militia is back with a vengeance with about 270 foreign troops killed there this year on top of 1,250 Afghan soldiers and police. Suicide bombers are a daily menace.
As the United States moves toward the exit in Iraq, it is slowly but surely making a significant troop buildup in Afghanistan.
US president-elect Barack Obama has made Afghanistan a priority and the commander of US and NATO forces there, General David McKiernan, has sought 20,000 additional troops.
The United States is also pressing other nations for more troops. The allies are reluctant and for the moment, US Defence Secretary Robert Gates has only promised two combat brigades, which will be taken off the US deployment in Iraq, where security has improved.
Spring assaults on Shiite militia strongholds in Baghdad and the southern city of Basra ordered by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki helped the US cause.
Maliki also cut a hard bargain with Washington to secure a military pact that includes a timeline for the withdrawal of all US troops by the end of 2011.
American forces face a new test in June, when they are required under the pact to withdraw from all Iraqi cities and towns.
The challenge in both Iraq and Afghanistan remains massive, according to analysts.
"There were two important developments over the past year," said Lawrence Freedman, a professor of war studies at Kings College in London. "One, Iraq has got a bit easier and two Afghanistan a bit harder."
Freedman said Iraq had been "a tough lesson" for the United States but that the West was now learning the importance of "the close relationship between politics and strategy" when fighting a conflict in a country like Iraq.
A senior European military officer, who requested anonymity, told AFP: "The countries that did not get involved in Iraq were lucky. Those that are now involved in Afghanistan will have to make a major commitment and it may become difficult to sell to their people."
The lesson has been acknowledged in the US leadership.
Gates, who has been asked to stay on under Obama, admits in an article for Foreign Affairs magazine to appear in January that the transition of the US army into an effective counter-insurgency force in Iraq "came at a frightful human, financial and political cost."
"Afghanistan in many ways poses an even more complex and difficult long term challenge than Iraq -- one that despite a large international effort will require a significant US military and economic commitment for some time," he warned.
Gates said the United States "would be hard-pressed to fight a major conventional ground war elsewhere on short notice, but as I have asked before, where on Earth would we do that?"
President George W. Bush has urged his successor to keep up international pressure on Sudan over the Darfur conflict, where the United Nations says 300,000 people have died and 2.2 million have been displaced since 2003.
But the UN says that a joint UN-African Union peace force for Darfur was expected to reach only half of its mandated strength of 26,000 troops by the end of the year.
The United Nations is also struggling to reinforce its biggest peacekeeping mission in eastern DR Congo where 17,000 international troops are trying to keep forces of renegade general Laurent Nkunda away from key government held towns.
EU countries turned down UN pressure to send an emergency force. French President Nicolas Sarkozy said: "It's not that we are not interested in the DRC but you can't be everywhere all the time. There are limits."
Freedman at King's College said "there is a danger of fatigue, particularly as there is not a lot of spare capacity" among key armies.
But he added that it was "almost inevitable" that a country somewhere "is going to falter very badly" this year because of the financial crisis.
"You can assume that there will be one or two countries from the third world that will be in real trouble. It could be in North Africa, maybe elsewhere. It should not be a surprise, it is going to be a very tough year."
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Afghan TV comedy plays on Bush shoe incident
Wed Dec 17, 3:42 am ET
KABUL (AFP) – A hugely popular Afghan comedy show is to reconstruct the infamous George W. Bush shoe hurling incident -- only this time the US president gets it in the face.
Bush is highly unpopular among most ordinary Afghans and footage of the US president ducking as an Iraqi journalist hurled two shoes in his direction has been shown repeatedly on television here.
Now a satirical show has used actors to reconstruct Sunday's press conference in Baghdad, ensuring that this time the shoe hits Bush in the face.
The producer of the show, "Zang-i-Khatar" (Alert Bell), said he wanted to send a message of solidarity with Iraq.
"The aim of the programme, besides making people laugh... is to convey solidarity with the people and journalists of Iraq," Hanif Hamgaam told AFP ahead of the show's airing Wednesday evening.
Iraqi journalist Muntazer al-Zaidi became an instant star in the Muslim world when he threw his shoes at Bush on Sunday during the US leader's farewell visit to the country invaded by American forces in 2003.
Zaidi jumped up during a joint news conference with Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, and shouted: "It is the farewell kiss, you dog," and threw his shoes at the US leader.
Bush managed to avoid the flying footwear, and Zaidi was wrestled to the ground by guards.
Bush ordered the 2001 US-led invasion of Afghanistan and the United States is the biggest financer of the country's post-Taliban reconstruction efforts.
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NATO says Afghan security will improve in 2009
KABUL (AFP) – A top NATO commander said Wednesday Afghanistan's dire security situation will improve next year as more foreign troops arrive and the new US administration takes office.
Security in Afghanistan has deteriorated every year since a US-led invasion in 2001 toppled the Taliban, an ultra-conservative Islamic regime that sheltered Al-Qaeda leaders.
The insurgency being waged by the Taliban and their Al-Qaeda allies reached a new peak this year with the deaths of around 2,000 civilians, 1,000 Afghan security forces and 281 foreign soldiers.
But Lieutenant General Jim Dutton, deputy commander of NATO's International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), said plans to boost the Afghan army and police force and increase the number of foreign troops would turn things around.
"There are some causes for optimism. Things should get better, not worse, in 2009," he told reporters in Kabul.
"We have a new US administration coming into power with fresh ideas, many of which we already know."
US president-elect Barack Obama, who takes over from George W. Bush next month, has vowed to send thousands more troops to tackle the insurgency in Afghanistan.
Dutton said improved coordination between Afghan, NATO and Pakistani forces along the border between the two countries and an increase in the number of Afghan security forces also gave him cause for optimism.
Afghan officials and Western military commanders allege that militants are crossing the border from Pakistan to carry out attacks on Afghan targets and accuse Pakistan of failing to stop cross-border attacks.
Taliban militants are most active in southern and eastern Afghanistan, along the long and porous border with Pakistan.
Afghanistan plans to build a 134,000-strong army by 2012, with the help of the international community. A police force of almost the same size is also planned.
More than 80,000 Afghan soldiers and a similar number of police have been trained since 2001 to fight alongside 70,000 foreign forces against Taliban insurgents.
"Few armies in the world would be capable of doubling their size while at the same time fighting an insurgency but the Afghans seem quite capable of doing that," the general said.
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Our Fight Is Your Fight, Afghan Leaders Tell Europe
PARIS (AFP)--Afghan governors urged Europe to stand by them in the fight against foreign-based militants Wednesday, warning that "terrorism" would spread unless the battle is won.
The provincial leaders were in Paris as part of a tour of European capitals to urge governments to support the North Atlantic Treaty Organization force deployed in their country and to make good on pledges of financial aid.
The U.S. plans to reinforce its troops in Afghanistan to fight Taliban insurgents and al-Qaida militants, but European allies have been nervous about committing to an open-ended struggle.
"You know, for our tomorrow we have to give sacrifices," said Mohammed Halim Fidai, governor of Madain Wardak province in east Afghanistan, when asked why European troops should risk death in Afghanistan.
"Do you want everyone to die in your country tomorrow? And do you want to repeat the 9/11 in each country? If you want that, then leave it to us," he told reporters at the U.S. embassy in Paris.
The governors said they were ready to talk to any Afghan Taliban leader who agreed to work through constitutional, non-violent means, but insisted that an international strategy was needed to defeat foreign militants.
Governor Sayed Fazlullah Wahidi of Kunar province, on Afghanistan's eastern border, said: "Al-Qaida is not our enemy. It's the enemy of everyone."
"Now, with the U.S. support we are saving our people and we are saving you too. This is war now, like an international thing, look at India," he said, referring to the recent attacks in Mumbai.
Wahidi predicted that the Mumbai attackers would be found to have links to militants from Pakistan's Bajaur region, from where he said Arab, Pakistani, Chechen and Uzbek extremists were carrying out raids into his province.
Both men called on Europe to send more troops and to free up funds already pledged for the Afghan government, allowing it to redevelop its infrastructure and train and arm larger security forces.
"This sacrifice, I can assure you it will bring results for everyone. It will bring results, it will bring security and peace to the whole region," Fidai promised.
The governors brushed off reports of corruption in President Hamid Karzai's family and government, saying nothing had been proven, and pointed to the success of local aid projects in their territories.
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US: Afghan supply line fine, but drivers cite risk
By JASON STRAZIUSO and RAHIM FAIEZ, Associated Press Writers – Tue Dec 16, 1:21 pm ET
BAGRAM AIR BASE, Afghanistan – Traveling in a convoy of 30 supply trucks escorted by security guards, the young Afghan driver hauled bottled water through Afghanistan's dangerous south to a U.S. outpost in Helmand province.
Stanekzai then headed back to the main American base at Bagram — without an armed escort. Halfway home on the country's main highway Monday, he heard gunfire tear into his rig. He stepped on the gas and prayed.
"I was afraid. I was bracing for a rocket-propelled grenade, because they usually fire those, too, but fortunately they didn't," the 22-year-old said Tuesday, standing beside his pockmarked truck.
Attacks are trying to put the squeeze on supplies reaching U.S. and NATO troops, with attacks on trucks in both Afghanistan and the Khyber Pass of neighboring Pakistan. American commanders insist attacks have had a minimal impact, but they also say they are exploring new routes.
Gunmen have staged a series of raids on truck depots near the Pakistani city of Peshawar in recent weeks, killing several guards and burning hundreds of vehicles, including dozens of U.S.-bought Humvees destined for the Afghan army.
During the summer, militants attacked and burned dozens of U.S. supply trucks on Afghanistan's main highway.
Afghan and Pakistani truck drivers say their work is becoming increasingly risky, and some are becoming wary of crossing Taliban-held areas despite their relatively high pay.
Because 75 percent of U.S. military supplies in Afghanistan come by road from Pakistan's ports, a functioning supply line through the Khyber Pass is critical.
Brig. Gen. James C. McConville, deputy commanding general in charge of support for U.S. troops in eastern Afghanistan, called the most recent attacks "insignificant," with only two transport trucks and "a couple containers of culvert" lost in the last two months.
"What terrorists try to do is create a perception of insecurity," he said Tuesday in an interview. "We can get more trucks, we can get more supplies, but what we can't get back are these innocent people (drivers) who are trying to make a living. It's not hurting us at all. It's hurting the local people."
Although a Pakistani truckers association said Monday that its drivers were refusing to haul supplies to Afghanistan because of the risks, some trucks continued to travel through Khyber. More than 50 trucks lined up outside Bagram on Tuesday, many full of fuel, waiting for clearance to enter the base.
McConville said more than half of the U.S. military's fuel arrives through Afghanistan's northern neighbors Uzbekistan, Turkmenestan and Tajikistan.
He also said the military has enough supplies on hand to operate for "many weeks" even if militants succeeded in cutting the supply chain.
"In the military, we keep large amounts of supplies in containers. We can weather it when things go wrong," he said. "If you were a businessman, you wouldn't consider that efficient, but in the military it's about being effective, and it's effective."
Safiullah, a 24-year-old from Ghazni who had just driven to Bagram from the large NATO base outside Kandahar, said Tuesday that drivers now travel in convoys of 80 to 100 trucks accompanied by 30 or 40 private security vehicles.
He said Zabul province and Wardak province, south of Kabul, pose the greatest risks.
"Every time we drive through we are fired upon or there's an ambush," said Safiullah, who like Stanekzai and many other Afghans uses one name. "There are huge gunbattles between private security forces and the Taliban. We face these threats every day, and every day the threat increases."
Stratfor, an Austin, Texas-based intelligence company, said in a report Tuesday that the U.S. search for alternate supply routes has accelerated, but that Pakistan remains "by far the quickest and most efficient overland route to the open ocean."
The U.S. and NATO fly in ammunition, weapons and other sensitive supplies, but it would be too costly to ship everything that way.
Another dangerous stretch for drivers is the Khyber Pass. Bakhtiar Khan, a local official in the Khyber tribal region, said Tuesday that truck convoys are passing through with increased security measures, including escorts by the paramilitary troops of Pakistan's Frontier Corps.
Mohammad Aslam, a Pakistani who drives a fuel tanker, said he fears for his life.
"Only one bullet and my whole truck catches fire," he said. "I'm a father of two children and I don't want my children to be orphans. I want to quit this job. It's better for me to beg on the street than to be a driver of a fuel tanker on these roads."
The earnings are hard for drivers to give up, though.
Stanekzai, whose truck was sprayed with bullets Monday, said he earns about $900 a month, a considerable sum in a country where junior police officers and army soldiers are paid only $100 monthly.
"But this money we are making is not worth it," he said after pointing out the bullet holes in his truck. "Not considering the threat we face."
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US: 3 militants killed in raid in Afghanistan
By RAHIM FAIEZ, Associated Press Writer – Wed Dec 17, 6:26 am ET
KABUL, Afghanistan – U.S. troops and Afghan police raided a compound housing people with al-Qaida links in eastern Afghanistan, killing three militants, the U.S. military said Wednesday.
People who were in the compound said the dead were civilians and that none of them had fired on the troops, according to Jahangir Pashtun, a spokesman for the governor's office of Khost province. These witnesses told Pashtun that the U.S. troops opened fire on the compound.
U.S. military spokesman Col. Gregory Julian said the three people killed, one of them a woman, had been specifically targeted as "known individuals with al-Qaida links." He said two of them fired directly on the troops and another attempted to fire.
"These were known insurgents and they had weapons and they attempted to engage us and we beat them to it," Julian said. He said others were detained, including one person "believed to be in direct contact with al-Qaida leaders outside of Afghanistan."
The aim of the raid had been to capture the targeted people, Julian said.
The incident occurred in Khost city, the province capital. At least one other woman was wounded and taken to a coalition medical facility.
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'Spies' killed by Pakistan Taliban
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan, Dec. 17 (UPI) -- A Pakistani Taliban video sent to the BBC shows the killing of five tribal men accused of aiding in the Jan. 19 death of al-Qaida leader Abu Laith al-Libi.
The five men died after being found guilty in a Taliban "trial," the report said.
They were accused of supplying information leading to the deaths of al-Libi and 11 others in a suspected U.S. missile strike in Pakistan's North Waziristan tribal area, seen as a sanctuary for al-Qaida and the Taliban, the report said.
The Taliban say the Pakistani government and "spies" in the tribal areas have been aiding in the U.S. effort.
Pir Mal, one of the five men killed, was quoted as allegedly confessing in the Taliban video sent to the BBC Urdu language service: "We planted the homing device in the house in which al-Libi and his men were to spend the night."
The video contained similar confessions from the other four men and also showed their decapitations, the report said, adding local tribal authorities confirmed finding their bodies.
A Pakistani army spokesman said the five were not in any way connected with the military, the report said.
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U.N.'s Afghan mission to expand
By Golnar Motevalli
KABUL (Reuters) – The United Nations mission in Afghanistan will soon have its budget doubled and staff numbers increased to more than 2,000 from 1,500, the U.N.'s special envoy said Wednesday.
The extra money and staff reflects a growing international focus on Afghanistan where seven years after U.S. and Afghan forces toppled the Taliban, the militants are gaining ground and violence has reached its worst levels since 2001.
U.N, Special Envoy Kai Eide said following a U.N. meeting in New York Tuesday, his budget would soon be doubled from $80 million a year.
He called for more transparency among donor countries about how much direct aid they contribute to Afghanistan, saying they needed to take responsibility for their projects and not leave it to the U.N..
Afghanistan needed an "international coordination center" with a representative from each major donor country, he said.
As well as the full gamut of U.N. agencies, more than 100 non-governmental organizations are active in Afghanistan, often implementing projects funded by donor countries. Poor coordination between them has plagued development efforts.
"There is not a lack of projects, but there is a lack of focus," Eide said.
MILITARY AGREEMENT
Eide said he wanted to see an agreement between Western military forces and the Afghan government, which is soon due for renewal, codify procedures for military searches of civilian homes so they are only conducted by the Afghan military.
Eide said the renewed agreement should include "issues having to do with detention, with house searches, and also with regard to the use of air power" but the details of the renewal will be the responsibility of the Afghan government.
NATO forces in October revised their procedures for launching air strikes and said all house searches would be led by Afghan troops unless there was a clear danger coming from the building.
Faced with the growing insurgency, the United States is sending some 3,000 extra troops in January and is considering deploying up to 20,000 more troops in the next 12 to 18 months.
Eide said he recognized a need for more troops in Afghanistan but said "any expanded military presence has to be accompanied by (that) change in behavior that I have outlined."
"There is a need for greater integration, better cooperation and better operational cohesion between the international forces and Afghan forces," Eide said.
Air strikes that have killed civilians, insensitive house searches and wrongful detentions are the main factors fuelling Afghan resentment against the presence of some 65,000 foreign troops in Afghanistan.
(Editing by David Fox)
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Berlin earmarks additional 3m euros for Afghan police
Berlin, Dec 16, IRNA
Germany is allocating an additional three million euros for rebuilding the Afghan police force, the German Foreign Ministry said in a press release here Tuesday.
The money is to be provided to the UN-led Law and Order Trust Fund for Afghanistan (LOTFA) to pay the family pensions of those police officers killed in the line of duty and to improving the shelters at 1,000 police checkpoints across the war-stricken country.
Germany which heads the main task of rebuilding the battered Afghan police force, already allocated 10 million euros last month for Afghan police salaries.
Berlin has repeatedly faced harsh criticism by its other NATO allies for its rather slow-paced and ineffective training of the Afghan police force.
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Bid to split Taliban, Al Qaeda
By Anand Gopal – The Christian Science Monitor via Yahoo! News - Tue Dec 16, 3:00 am EST
Kabul, Afghanistan – The Afghan government and its allies are reconciling with moderates and isolating hard-liners in a bid to split the insurgency, Western and Afghan officials say.
The idea of wooing moderates has gained traction as violence in Afghanistan has reached record levels this year. The United States and NATO are reassessing their strategy amid a growing chorus of Western officials who say that the international effort here is failing.
"Some ministries have started a program to try to separate Al Qaeda and the Taliban," says Ursala Rahmani, a former Taliban official who has been involved in talks with the government. Mr. Rahmani says that the Interior and Defense ministries are involved in the effort.
"We are trying to exploit the natural tensions that exist between Al Qaeda and those under Mullah Omar," the fugitive leader of the Taliban, adds a senior intelligence officer with the international forces, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
Some insurgent commanders may be closely aligned with Al Qaeda, which is waging an international, ideologically driven war against the West.
But Afghanistan experts say that most Afghan insurgents fight because of local grievances, including tribal rivalries, poor economic opportunities, and dissatisfaction with the Afghan government and international forces. Many experts say these insurgents have little interest in attacking sites in the West and restrict their concerns to Afghanistan.
Western officials dub these fighters "moderates," even though many of them are just as religiously conservative as their Al Qaeda counterparts.
"Over the long term, I see reconciliation as one of the primary actions that will have to occur for there to be success," says Carter Malkasian, who directs the Stability and Development program at CNA, a Washington-based think tank.
Two-pronged strategy
Such reconciliation is a key ingredient in the kind of counterinsugency strategy militaries have used for decades, including in Iraq. The strategy may take two approaches. First, it will focus on the low-ranking insurgent fighters who may be easier to reconcile with the government.
"We tend to talk about the Taliban, but there is 'big T' Taliban, that is Mullah Omar and the [others] who ... swept through the country in the mid-'90s," says Eric Edelman, the Pentagon's senior policy official, told reporters in Washington recently. "There is what I call the 'small-T' Taliban, which are Pashtun tribals who are not reconciled to the government and may be engaging in ... activity kind of opportunistically."
According to officials at the Afghan Social Outreach Program, part of an Afghan government initiative to strengthen local governance, a new body is being formed to reconcile such fighters with the government that will use the promise of government jobs and cash inducements. This body will replace an already existing government organization that many say is corrupt and ineffective.
The second approach will be to zsow divisions in the insurgency's leadership and isolate elements close to Al Qaeda. Al Qaeda and the Taliban have differing strategies: Al Qaeda's policy of global warfare has brought it into confrontation with the Pakistani government, while the Afghan Taliban are on good terms with Islamabad and restrict its fight to Afghanistan.
"Al Qaeda's activities draw Pakistani military action, and this leads to natural tensions between them and the [Afghan] Taliban," says the senior intelligence officer with the international forces.
There is evidence that such tensions have existed for some months. In February, Mullah Omar issued a statement saying, "We want to have legitimate relations with all countries in the world," and expressing solidarity with Iran, a Shiite country viewed by the Sunni-extremist Al Qaeda as an enemy. The statement also indicated that the Taliban's main purpose was to fight within Afghan borders.
In response, prominent Al Qaeda websites posted messages denouncing the "nationalist trend" and pro-Iranian orientation in the Taliban's communiqués.
Psychological operations
The effort to widen such possible divisions may include so-called psychological operations. According to intelligence officers, international forces and the Afghan government plant fake e-mails on jihadi websites or circulate bogus letters in the insurgent community.
For instance, a few months ago, there appeared a letter signed by Jalaluddin Haqqani, who heads an insurgent network that is independent of Mullah Omar's Taliban and very closely aligned with Al Qaeda. The letter denounced Mr. Omar as "ineffective, ignorant, and illiterate" and appealed to insurgents to follow Mr. Haqqani. Intelligence agents with the international forces suggest that the letter originated from the Afghan government or its allies as an attempt to inflame tensions between insurgent groups.
Some insurgent commanders might be more amenable to negotiations than others. The US government is also backing talks between Afghan officials and former Taliban figures. A first set of meetings was held in the fall in Mecca, under the auspices of the Saudi king. Although many attending the meeting were low-ranking former Taliban officials or people who have fallen out of favor with the current insurgent leadership, observers say that Kabul may be hoping to use these talks as a starting point for future direct negotiations with senior leadership.
Some who attended the Mecca meetings say that future meetings are being planned in places like Dubai, and both sides are looking into meeting regularly in the coming months.
Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, who heads an insurgent network allied with the Taliban, may not be fighting for purely nationalist or other ideological reasons.
"Hekmatyar's main concern is power, and he will do whatever it takes to get it back," says Waliullah Rahmani of the Kabul Center for Strategic Studies, an independent think tank. Mr. Hekmatyar was one of the few warlords not offered a position in the post-Taliban government.
In the spring, Hekmatyar sent a letter to Afghan President Hamid Karzai, stating, "I have dedicated my whole life to struggle, but I am old." The letter goes on to imply that Mr. Karzai should remove all foreign troops from urban centers. A similar message was sent in October.
According to Waheed Muzhda, a former Taliban official who has seen one of the letters and is familiar with the negotiation process, Hekmatyar may be interested in a senior government post.
Splitting the insurgency, however, may prove difficult. "Many of the Taliban's financial resources come from Al Qaeda," says analyst Mr. Rahmani. The Taliban may also lack sufficient incentive to split from Al Qaeda or negotiate with the Afghan government as long as they feel they are winning the war and their havens in Pakistan are not threatened.
"Omar and his followers have nothing to lose and everything to gain if they can hold out long enough for foreign forces to withdraw," says Matthew DuPee, a researcher with the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, Calif.
But if the US can weaken the insurgency, it could force splits in insurgents' ranks. "If you achieve a measure of military success, then you are in a position to negotiate with the warlords," says Stephen Biddle, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. The US must also offer incentives, such as more autonomy on the local level and more resources, he adds.
"If your end game is negotiated settlement, then you need both sticks and carrots," he says.
• Gordon Lubold contributed from Washington.
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Year of the Afghan mission
Globe and Mail ROLAND PARIS December 17, 2008
During last September's federal election campaign, Prime Minister Stephen Harper made a surprising declaration: Canada's military would leave not only Kandahar but all of Afghanistan in 2011. Mr. Harper had previously argued just as definitively that Canada would “not abandon” the mission because of its importance.
Surely, this decision warrants more public discussion. What role, if any, should Canada play in Afghanistan after 2011? Our political leaders may be tempted to avoid such contentious questions, or to wait until the last minute to face them. But, in doing so, they risk re-enacting the same flawed policy-making that took us to Kandahar in the first place: a crucial decision made quickly, with limited analysis and virtually no public debate of Canada's larger interests.
There would be little point in continuing Canada's commitment if the mission were destined to fail. But while the current situation in Afghanistan is not encouraging, it is not hopeless – and 2009 is shaping up to be a pivotal year, for several reasons.
First, the United States is poised to deploy large additional forces to Afghanistan. One brigade will arrive in January, and three more – amounting to roughly 20,000 troops – are expected later in the year. Many of these units will be sent to the volatile south, including Kandahar, where Canadian troops have been overstretched since they arrived in 2006.
Some observers warn that the influx of new contingents will provoke wider fighting. Others believe they will help NATO remedy a problem that Canadians have long faced in Kandahar: finding enough soldiers to secure districts already “cleared” of insurgents, rather than allowing the Taliban to reoccupy these areas. Either way, the situation in southern Afghanistan will change dramatically in 2009.
Second, in addition to deploying more U.S. troops, which will make it possible to accelerate training of the Afghan army and police, U.S. president-elect Barack Obama has pledged to ramp up development assistance to Afghans. He also wants to launch a regional diplomatic initiative aimed at addressing the interlocking concerns of Afghanistan, Pakistan, India and Iran, whose mutual distrust has complicated stabilization efforts in Afghanistan. Further, Washington seems increasingly willing to support negotiations with “reconcilable” elements of the insurgency.
Of course, talk is cheap, but we're finally hearing the right kind of talk. Mr. Obama is espousing policy changes many Afghans and Afghanistan watchers have urged for years.
Third, in a Kabul meeting last week, a senior U.S. military official revealed plans to organize and deputize local Afghan militias in some insecure parts of the country. This strategy, to start in one district early next year, will be risky. Empowering the wrong groups could produce further feuding and warlordism.
Nevertheless, if the Afghan government supports the strategy, it should be tested. Existing policies haven't adequately prevented the spread of Taliban attacks and intimidation.
Finally, the Afghan national election scheduled for 2009 may help revitalize the stalled process of political reform. Afghans are fed up with the cronyism, corruption and ineffectiveness of their government. Whether this frustration translates into political mobilization or voter apathy remains to be seen, but elections can be powerfully (and surprisingly) transformative.
For Canada, too, 2009 may be crucial. Although 2011 seems far off, we'll soon have to decide whether to continue our Afghan engagement, and in what form if we do. NATO is already planning for the arrival of new U.S. forces in Kandahar. If we wish to carve out specific responsibilities for ourselves, we'll need to make a claim to them, probably before 2010.
Such decisions, however, presuppose serious public debate in Canada over the next year, informed by the evolving circumstances of the mission.
Apart from withdrawing our 2,700-strong contingent or simply continuing the existing deployment, four other options should be examined:
1. Move Canadian troops to safer parts of Afghanistan (although this is not where NATO forces are most needed).
2. Focus our military mission on Kandahar city and the strategically important districts of Panjwai and Zhari (which may be possible with a reduced force of about 1,800 soldiers, including support elements).
3. Keep only a garrison in Kandahar city to provide security for residents and Canadian development officials (requiring a few hundred soldiers, including support elements).
4. Shift entirely to a training mission for Afghan army and police units (the risks should not be underestimated, since trainers typically accompany their units on operations).
But first, we must decide whether it's in Canada's interest to remain in Afghanistan at all. We have no obligation to make further sacrifices, particularly if the mission's prospects do not improve. But the costs of allowing Afghanistan to collapse back into civil war would be enormous – for regional security (the stability of nuclear-armed Pakistan is at stake), for our own security (as we learned in the 1990s when al-Qaeda used Afghanistan as a base for global attacks), and not least for ordinary Afghans, who have suffered through decades of war.
Roland Paris is director of the Centre for International Policy Studies and associate professor in the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of
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Paris bomb scare raises question: jihadis, or not?
By Robert Marquand – The Christian Science Monitor via Yahoo! News - Wed Dec 17, 3:00 am EST
Paris – The first words in the Paris bomb warning letter – "We are from the Afghan revolutionary front" – already show something unusual. The group or persons leaving five old sticks of dynamite in a men's room in an upscale Paris department store at the height of Christmas shopping were not using the language of jihad, of Islam, or of the Taliban, to create fear.
Rather, the letter, posted to Agence France-Presse (AFP) and intended to reach French President Nicolas Sarkozy, contained what seems more a political than a religious demand. It said French troops must leave Afghanistan by the end of February. If not, the group threatened, using almost Marxist phraseology, "we will take action again in your capitalist stores."
Whether the Paris threat was authentic, a cruel prank, a deceptive shot from the ultraleft – or from unknown Afghan, Pakistani, or other South Asian groups – was unclear Tuesday. The dynamite was found by sniffer dogs in a third-floor men's room in Printemps – one of the best-known department stores in Paris, located in the busy streets behind the Paris Opera and a hallmark of French pride.
Yet in the aftermath of the Mumbai terror attacks against civilians and tourists in the most upscale city in India, security services in London, Paris, Italy, and Spain were closely studying how the attacks occurred. A bomb scare in Paris showing at least rudimentary capability of harm brings extra scrutiny and worry about the terror tactic of "soft targets."
French Ministry of Interior officials issued a statement, for example. "Beware of indications in the letter that might direct the inquirers to red herrings," the statement cautions.
Yet the method and language of the Paris threat are unusual, terrorism experts say. For example, announcing a bomb ahead of its deadly use is not a trademark of Al Qaeda, and has not been seen in Europe "for at least 20 years," says Ali Laidi, a French expert on terrorism at the Institute for International and Strategic Relations in Paris.
"This is very different from the jihadi rhetoric of a group like Al Qaeda," says Mr. Laidi. "There is no reference to the Koran, to Muslims. They use a word like 'revolutionary' to define themselves, a secular political word. It almost seems they want to distance themselves from Al Qaeda."
The incident, which emptied the Printemps store for several hours, came less than a week after Belgian security and police arrested 14 individuals allegedly linked to Al Qaeda – ahead of a major EU summit in Brussels. One of the men was described as having recently recorded a "martyr's video" for friends and family, an act that often immediately precedes a suicide bombing.
French troops were added in Afghanistan last summer; weeks later, a French convoy was ambushed and 10 soldiers were killed, causing President Sarkozy to fly to Kabul. France has 2,600 troops deployed in the NATO mission in Afghanistan. Sarkozy has said that next April, France will fully rejoin NATO.
Most Parisians and shoppers took the news stoically. Italian tourist Ilaria de Pasqua, for example, was quoted by AFP said after being denied entry to Printemps at midday.
"There are lots of shops. I am going to Galeries Lafayette instead," she said.
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Parliament drafts legislation to force election
Written by www.quqnoos.com Wednesday, 17 December 2008
MPs demand that Election Commission sets date for a spring election
Elements in Parliament are attempting to block any extension of President Karzai’s term of office.
Constitutionally, elections must be held before May and a new draft law seeks to halt Karzai’s term in May.
The law also allows for Afghan and International forces to provide security for the election.
The legislation threatens legal consequences for any elements of the Afghan government that defy the constitutional parameters for the election.
Previously, the Independent Election Commission (IEC) has stated that, legally, they are able to delay elections until the autumn if it does not appear that the elections will be free and fair.
MPs have asked the IEC to continue voter registration throughout the winter and to set a date for a spring election at once.
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Afghan greenhouses to shut due to heater shortage
Written by www.quqnoos.com Tuesday, 16 December 2008
Up to 90% lack heaters to keep cultivation going 365 days a year, says ministry
Up to 90% of Afghanistan’s 150 greenhouses will shut down over the winter due to a shortage of heaters, according to the Ministry of Agriculture.
The greenhouse sector could provide much needed food and employment across Afghanistan. The diversity of crops that can be grown in greenhouses could also be a boon to farmers, the ministry added.
The head of the Badam Bagh’s 70 green houses, Sadruddin Amarkhil, said: “Greenhouses are new to Afghanistan, and we must make the farmers aware of their benefits. This will help the farmers and as they can cultivate in all four seasons.”
Another official in Badam Bagh said: “Making a green house is very simple, and every farmer can make it anywhere if he has plastic and wooden or iron piles.”
Gul, a farmer in the Badam Bagh greenhouse, said: “We know that the greenhouses help us grow more crops, and if their heaters worked, we could use them all the year round.”
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Balkh power shortages frustrate residents
Written by www.quqnoos.com Tuesday, 16 December 2008 16:26
Shortfall of over 30 megawatts keeps northern province in the dark
Power shortages are causing big problems for the people of Balkh, residents say.
Power cuts in Mazar-e-Sharif have increased this winter and locals say that the shortages demonstrate the impotence of central government to help residents.
According to an engineer at the Balkh Power Department, Mazar requires 60 megawatts of power but receives only 27.2 megawatts at present.
An Indian company, contracted in to help fix the situation, will refurbish Mazar’s power station and build 225 additional local power routers in 2009. The work should add another 15-20 megawatts of power to the local grid.
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