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July 18, 2007 

Attacks 'kill 17' in Afghanistan
BBC News
Reports from Afghanistan say at least 17 people, including three insurgents, have been killed in a day of violence which included two suicide attacks.

Five of the dead were police who were killed in the south-east. Correspondents say the Taleban and their allies are increasingly resorting to roadside bombings and ambushes.

Meanwhile, seven United Nations staff - two of them German, five Afghan - have been kidnapped in the central province of Wardak, local officials say.

The governor of neighbouring Ghazni province, Mirajuddin Pathan, told the BBC that the group were thought to have been taken to the border area between the two provinces. UN officials were not immediately available for comment.

The police chief of the south-eastern province of Zabul told the BBC that the Taleban attacked a convoy of his men on the main highway which links Kabul with the south and west of the country. He said five policemen had been killed and six injured.

Further west on the same road in Helmand province an army officer said three of his colleagues were killed by a remotely controlled device.

There have also been incidents in three adjoining provinces in the east near the Pakistani border. Two suicide attackers jointly attacked a police compound in Khost.

Two police were killed when one of the attackers blew himself up and the other fired shots before being shot dead by police. In Paktia province police said a Filipino road engineer and an Afghan guard were killed in ambushes.

In Loghar, near Kabul, an office which gives security advice said a staff member and driver working for a non-governmental organisation were both killed in their car by men waiting on a motorcycle.

In the capital a suicide bomber struck near a Turkish military convoy but killed only himself while wounding a passer-by. The violence came as a committee of British MPs urged Nato to increase its troop presence on the ground in Afghanistan.
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Taliban growing stronger in Afghanistan: report
By Luke Baker Wed Jul 18, 5:43 AM ET
LONDON (Reuters) - NATO countries are not giving the international force securing Afghanistan enough support and there are worrying signs that the Taliban are growing stronger, a detailed study by Britain's parliament has found.

The report, by the House of Commons Defence Committee, highlighted a series of concerns, from a lack of training for Afghan police and armed forces to an unclear policy on eradicating the country's vast opium poppy fields.

But the chief preoccupation was a lack of support from other NATO countries to provide more troops to the 36,000-strong ISAF mission and evidence that violence, including Iraq-style suicide bombings, was growing as Taliban and al Qaeda-linked insurgents expand their sphere of influence outwards from the south.

Britain, which leads NATO forces in the restive Helmand province in the southern Afghanistan, is one of the largest contributors to the mission, with 7,100 troops.

"We remain deeply concerned that the reluctance of some NATO countries to provide troops for the ISAF mission in Afghanistan is undermining NATO's credibility and also ISAF operations," the bi-partisan committee concluded in its 65-page report.

While praising Britain's commitment to the overall mission, the report's authors added:

"The Ministry of Defence asserts that the Taliban insurgency does not pose a strategic threat to Afghanistan (but) violence seems to be increasing and spreading to the previously more peaceful provinces in the north and west ... and the capital.

"Moreover, civilian casualties undermine support for ISAF and the government of Afghanistan and fuel the insurgency, further endangering our troops."

Britain's defense minister, Des Browne, called the report "balanced" and said he also wanted more NATO help. He denied that the situation in Afghanistan had worsened significantly or that British air assets were overstretched.

"We have overmatched them every time they've faced up to us," he said of the Taliban, adding that Afghanistan was a long-term commitment for foreign forces. "Suggesting we should back off and leave it alone is not the answer."

INDISCRIMINATE METHODS

Senior Afghan leaders have recently accused NATO troops of indiscriminate tactics, with scores of civilians reportedly killed in a series of NATO and U.S. air strikes in western Afghanistan earlier this month.

Military commanders say they do everything they can to target only armed insurgents, but a series of well-documented cases in which civilians have been killed or caught in the crossfire has greatly increased tensions with Afghan leaders and local people, whom troops need to win over.

In their analysis, the report's 18 authors said a lack of trust between Afghans and British-led troops was hurting other efforts, including the need to eradicate poppy fields, which now account for 30 percent of Afghanistan's economic output.

Poppy cultivation has expanded rapidly over the past year, from 104,000 hectares in 2005 to 165,000 hectares in 2006, the report said, with the absence of a clear policy on how to tackle it making it ever more difficult to rein it in.

"We are concerned that uncertainty has arisen among Afghans about ISAF's role in poppy eradication and that UK forces, under ISAF command, may consequently have been put at risk," it said.
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Nato faces Afghanistan 'problems'
Wednesday, 18 July 2007 BBC News
Defence Secretary Des Browne has said UK-led Nato forces are facing "problems" in Afghanistan but there was no question of troops being pulled out.

He warned it would be a "potential nightmare" for the west if Afghanistan was allowed to become a terrorist "training ground" as it was before.

Mr Browne was responding to a report by a committee of MPs which called on Nato countries to commit more troops.

It highlighted equipment shortages and fears the Taleban are gaining strength.

But its main focus was troop numbers, with MPs saying they were "deeply concerned" that some member countries were reluctant to contribute troops.

The Commons defence committee said the International Security Assistance Force (Isaf) was still two battalions short of the requirement set by Nato commanders.

The government agreed that challenges in Afghanistan were "considerably greater" than some admitted.

Other problems identified in the wide-ranging report include a lack of training for Afghan police and an unclear policy on eradicating the country's opium poppy fields.

Britain, which leads NATO forces in the Helmand province in the southern Afghanistan, is one of the largest contributors to the Isaf mission, with 7,100 troops.

'Exaggerated'

In its report, the committee said some Nato members were continuing to impose restrictions on where their troops could operate.

Isaf currently has almost 37,000 troops in Afghanistan, but a far larger force - backed by increased development aid - was needed to stabilise the country, it added.

The report said: "We remain deeply concerned that the reluctance of some Nato members to provide troops for the Isaf mission is undermining Nato's credibility and also Isaf operations."

James Arbuthnot, the committee's chairman, said Nato countries all had their own national reasons for not giving the same levels of commitment.

Taleban 'exaggeration'

He added: "The fear that we have as a result of this is that this deployment itself is at risk of failing, and if this deployment fails then Nato's existence is under threat."

The committee also warned that Nato appeared to be falling behind the Taleban in the "information campaign".

It warned that "exaggerated" claims of enemy casualties risked handing a propaganda weapon to insurgents.

Meanwhile, civilian casualties caused by Isaf were undermining support for the Nato mission and the Afghan government of President Hamid Karzai and fuelling the insurgency.

The committee said that, while progress had been made in training units of the Afghan National Army working with Isaf, they were still "some way off operating independently".

'Potential nightmare'

The report said British forces still needed more helicopters and that the level of helicopter operations was "not sustainable at the present intensity".

Defence Secretary Des Browne welcomed what he described as a balanced report, adding in a statement that he agreed with its assessment "that Nato nations should do more to meet the shortfalls in requirements".

He told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "This report has many positive elements in it.

"There are significant challenges; this is a complex environment. There are 37 countries with troops in this country and there are many billions of pounds of aid.

"Quite specifically this report says that the ISAF mission is bringing tangible improvements to the people of Afghanistan."

Shadow defence secretary Liam Fox said the report was "a severe indictment of the government's handling of the situation in Afghanistan".

Liberal Democrat defence spokesman Nick Harvey said: "This is an operation that Nato can ill-afford to lose and yet co-ordination between international actors remains poor."
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Factbox - Security developments in Afghanistan, 18 July 2007
July 18 (Reuters) - Following are security developments in Afghanistan at 0800 GMT on Wednesday:

KHOST - A suicide bomber blew himself up inside the compound of the main police station in the southeastern town of Khost. No more details on casualties from the blast. A second attacker, disguised in an army uniform, shot dead two policemen before being killed.

ZABUL - At least six policemen were killed in a Taliban ambush in the southern province of Zabul, police there said.

PAKTIA - A Filipino road engineer and his Afghan guard were killed in a Taliban ambush in the southeastern province of Paktia.

KABUL - A suicide bomber attacked a Turkish diplomatic convoy, wounding an Afghan civilian, on the outskirts of the city. One Turkish guard in the small convoy was wounded in firing afterwards.

KABUL - Three rockets were fired hours before the violence in Kabul, but caused no casualties or damage.
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Attacks kill nine in Afghanistan
Wednesday, 18 July 2007 BBC News
At least nine people have been killed in a series of attacks across Afghanistan, police say.

In the most serious violence, at least five policemen were killed and six injured in what police say was a Taleban ambush in Zabul province.

The attack took place on the highway linking Kabul to Kandahar, police said.

A man claiming to speak for the Taleban said the group carried out the attack, which blocked the road for several hours and left drivers stranded.

Correspondents say that Zabul province is well known as Taleban hotbed .

In another incident, in the eastern town of Khost, police told the BBC News website that a suicide bomber blew himself up outside a police station, and another suicide bomber was shot dead by police. Two policemen were also killed.

In a third incident, a suicide bomber targeted a Turkish diplomatic convoy on the outskirts of the capital, Kabul, wounding at least one Afghan civilian, police and witnesses said.

A Turkish embassy official told the Associated Press news agency that shots were fired at a damaged armoured vehicle in the convoy, wounding one Turkish guard.

Nato troops blocked off the site of the blast, on a main road leading out to the west of the city.

Police also say that a Filipino road engineer and his Afghan guard were killed in a Taleban ambush in the south-eastern province of Paktia.

Correspondents say the south of the country this year has seen the worst violence since the Taleban were ousted from power in 2001 by a US-led international coalition.
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Suicide blast hits diplomatic convoy in Kabul
Wed Jul 18, 2007 10:14 AM EDT By Sayed Salahuddin
KABUL (Reuters) - A suicide bomber hit a Turkish diplomatic convoy on the outskirts of the Afghan capital on Wednesday, wounding one Afghan civilian, police said, and shots were fired at one of the vehicles, wounding a Turkish guard.

Hours after the attack, two suicide bombers dressed as Afghan army soldiers attacked the main police station in the southeastern town of Khost and killed three policemen.

"Two suicide bombers dressed as soldiers tried to get into the police compound, but they were identified by police at the first checkpoint," an Interior Ministry spokesman said.

"Two policemen came forward to stop them. One of the bombers detonated himself and the second one was shot dead by police before he had a chance to set off his explosives."

Afghanistan is going through its bloodiest phase of violence since U.S.-led forces ousted the Taliban in 2001.

There are also signs the Taliban are growing stronger, a detailed study by Britain's parliament found.

"The Ministry of Defense asserts that the Taliban insurgency does not pose a strategic threat to Afghanistan (but) violence seems to be increasing and spreading to the previously more peaceful provinces in the north and west ... and the capital," the House of Commons Defense Committee said in a report.

A Kabul-based Western security analyst said the Taliban were gaining new recruits from unemployed youth in the provinces of Wardak and Loghar, just south of Kabul, resulting in a sharp deterioration in security there in the last month.

"I was in Wardak last week. The people there say the Taliban are using the young generation who are jobless and have nothing to do -- they are giving them money or drugs," he said.

Many Afghans are frustrated at the slow pace of development and the inability of the government and its Western backers to bring security to Afghanistan more than five years after the Taliban were ousted from power.

NEW TACTICS

Also on Wednesday, six Afghan police were killed in the southern province of Zabul, and a Filipino road engineer and Afghan guard died in two separate ambushes in the southeastern province of Paktia, provincial officials said.

A government official and his driver were also shot dead by a man on a motorbike in Loghar province, his ministry said.

The Taliban claimed responsibility for all the attacks.

After the blast in Kabul, shots were fired from two directions at the damaged armored vehicle, wounding one Turkish guard, a Turkish embassy official said, suggesting an ambush.

"It is first time this kind of tactic was used," the security analyst said. "They are always trying to find new tactics."

The convoy was traveling to the province of Wardak, southwest of Kabul, where Turkish troops lead a team aiming to bring both security and development to outlying regions.

Inspired by insurgents in Iraq, the Taliban increasingly rely on roadside and suicide bombs as part of their campaign to overthrow the government and drive out foreign troops.

The Kabul attack came hours after three rockets exploded in a field inside the city, police said. There were no casualties or damage from the rockets.

(Additional reporting by Hamid Shalizi and Jon Hemming)
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NATO says Iranian-made explosives found in Afghanistan
Wednesday, July 18, 2007
KABUL (AFP) - NATO forces in Afghanistan said they had found several Iranian-made armour-piercing explosives but stressed there was no proof of a formal supply from the neighbouring country.

Thomas Kelly, a US colonel under NATO command, said forces had found several of the so-called "explosively-formed projectiles" that were more sophisticated than the crudely-made bombs usually used by Afghan insurgents.

But the senior spokeswoman for NATO's International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), US Lieutenant Colonel Claudia Foss, stressed that the alliance had no evidence that the Iranian government was involved in the supply.

Kelly said four of the devices, which are also being used by Iraqi insurgents and Lebanon's Hezbollah, were found in Herat near the Iranian border and in Kabul, where a fifth device had harmlessly exploded early this year.

The colonel told a Kabul media briefing that the bombs were "something called explosively-formed projectiles (EFPs)... They're designed to penetrate armoured vehicles.

"These are very sophisticated IEDs (improvised explosive devices) and they're really not manufactured in any other places other than, our knowledge is, Iran," he said, adding that the explosives were factory-made.

Taliban insurgents commonly attack US-led, NATO and Afghan targets with roadside bombs and other explosives made from old ammunition such as mortars and rockets left over from the war-torn country's decades of conflicts.

"The insurgents may have access to this device but may not yet know how to use them or know if they're effective or not," Kelly said.

Foss, however, told the same briefing that ISAF's commander had previously said "that we have no evidence of any formal supply of weapons from Iran."

"For decades this country has been under attack and we find weapons all the time but, as far as any formal supply, there's been no evidence."

US Defence Secretary Robert Gates said in June that "substantial" quantities of Iranian weapons are flowing into Afghanistan and that it was difficult to believe the Iranian government was not aware of it.

The United States has long accused Iran's Quds Force, an arm of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, of arming and training Shiite extremist groups in Iraq.

But in recent months US military officials have said Iranian-made weapons including EFPs have also turned up in Afghanistan.
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Ex-commanders says Pakistan could be next Afghanistan
By Iqbal Khattak Daily Times (Pakistan) Wednesday, July 18, 2007
PESHAWAR: There is a serious risk of Pakistan going the way of Afghanistan if the state and Islamist militants remain in conflict, say former Afghan commanders who fought in the jihad against Soviet forces.

Afghanistan has been ravaged by almost continuous war since the late 1970s, when mujahideen challenged the Moscow-backed regime in Kabul. With growing unrest in the NWFP and the tribal areas, where there have been repeated suicide attacks on security forces, Pakistan is exhibiting similar symptoms to Afghanistan, the Afghan commanders say. “Pakistan may face a worse crisis than Afghanistan as this country has nuclear weapons,” former Afghan commander Haji Muhammad Zaman warned.

Pakistan was the transit route for US-backed Muslim volunteers and weapons sent into Afghanistan against the Red Army occupation and Balochistan and NWFP bore the brunt of the wave of “Islamisation” that the military regime of Gen Ziaul Haq, with US-backing, promoted to inflict defeat on the former Soviet Union. Peshawar was the de facto capital of the Afghan resistance against the communists.

Zaman said the angry reaction of people in NWFP and the tribal areas to the Lal Masjid operation shows and suicide attacks on security forces show how deeply radicalised the Pashtuns have become.

“How can you change the people so soon who underwent 30 years of radicalisation? Excessive use of force is no solution to keep people away from what we call extremism,” the Afghan commander said. In 2007, the phenomenon of ‘Talibanisation’ has spilled over into several Frontier districts from Waziristan. “Things are happening even outside Waziristan now,” Haji Masood Khan, former commander for Afghan leader Pir Syed Ahmed Gilani, told Daily Times. “There is a danger that Pakistan may go Afghanistan’s way as I look at the current situation in this country.”

Khan said though Afghanistan’s case was different than that of Pakistan, there was still “cause for great concern” for Afghanistan as serious disturbances in Pakistan were not a good omen for that country.

Zaman said as long as “flames engulf Afghanistan” there is every possibility that it would affect Pakistan. “Extremists in this country are far more extreme than extremists of other countries and in the given situation no-one will let Pakistan live like this.” Afghan journalist Janullah Hashimzada grew up in Pakistan after he fled Afghanistan at the age of seven in 1980 when the jihad against the Soviet occupation was gaining momentum. “We made an emotional decision to call the war a jihad and I would like to tell the people of Pakistan not to make such an emotional decision that may sink them deeper into crisis,” Hashimzada, 35, said.

“You people do not know where all this will lead you,” the Afghan journalist said. “If Pakistan goes Afghanistan’s way it will affect the whole Muslim world.”

He appealed to both the militants and the government of President Gen Pervez Musharraf to “let sanity prevail over emotions” and Pakistan and Afghanistan live in complete peace. 
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Afghanistan's fate hinges on military presence: Canadian PM
Wed. Jul. 18 2007 10:56 AM ET Canadian Press
SANTIAGO, Chile -- Prime Minister Stephen Harper says only a stepped-up military presence in Afghanistan can prevent the troubled country from again becoming a haven for terrorists.

Canada went to Afghanistan because it was a failed state responsible for training the terrorists that killed two dozen Canadians in the World Trade Centre attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, Harper said.

Afghanistan represented a security threat to the world then, he said at the end of a Latin American trip, and it will again if NATO countries don't step up their efforts to resist the Taliban and al-Qaida insurgency.

"I don't think it's an option for Canada or anybody else to close our eyes and pretend there aren't severe problems in other parts of the world,'' he said.

Unless Western nations like Canada "take our international responsibilities seriously, these problems will come back to haunt us,'' he added.

Harper, who was heading to Barbados, recently maintained that he would not extend Canada's military mission in Afghanistan beyond its scheduled end in February 2009 without a "consensus'' in Parliament. He repeated that Wednesday.

He has also said NATO's failure to persuade other countries in the alliance to shoulder some of the burden in Afghanistan would be a factor in Canada's participation in the combat mission there beyond 2009.
The mission is coming under increasing scrutiny as casualties mount _ now 66 Canadian military deaths _ and progress appears slow.

Canada's concerns about Afghanistan were buttressed by a a British parliamentary committee report that said the NATO mission in Afghanistan has been undermined by serious strategic mistakes and a failure to provide adequate troops.

The British report warned the entire campaign is at risk if key NATO countries continue to refuse to deploy additional personnel.

The report also criticized efforts to suppress the opium trade and said NATO is failing to communicate its successes to ordinary Afghans, handing the propaganda initiative to the Taliban.

Though NATO's ISAF force has around 37,000 troops, a much larger number and increased development aid are needed to stabilize the country, the defence committee report said.

Britain has complained its troops, along with those from the United States, Canada and the Netherlands, are the only NATO forces fighting the Taliban in the most violent areas of southern Afghanistan. Other NATO-contributing countries restrict the use of their forces to relatively peaceful areas in the north.

Spain, Italy, Germany and France have refused to send additional troops to Afghanistan.

Said Harper: "Afghanistan is a daunting challenge but if the international community really works together, we can make progress in that country to the point where it becomes a functioning nation, one that will not slip back into the status of being a failed state that represents a threat to the security of the planet.''
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Pak-Afghan border sealed at Chaman crossing
Daily Times (Pakistan) Wednesday, July 18, 2007
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan on Tuesday sealed off its border with Afghanistan at Chaman point after security forces arrested two suspected militants late Monday night while trying to sneak into Spin Boldak, the capital of the Pukhtoon-majority Kandahar province of Afghanistan, Daily Times has learnt.

The sources said that transit passes issued to Pakistanis and Afghan nationals to cross over to Afghanistan had also been cancelled. However, there would be no bar on the UN staff to move across the border. Preliminary investigations disclosed that the two suspected militants from Swat were to meet a 17-member group of Taliban to implement a plan to kill security officials in different areas of NWFP and smuggle in a sizable quantity of explosives.

The 17-member group also includes two high-value targets carrying head money announced by the US government. The names of the two suspected militants were not disclosed for security reasons.

The sources said that sensitive equipment and closed-circuit cameras had also been installed at Chaman point to check the cross-border movement of militants, who might disrupt peace and stability in the country, particularly in NWFP, by carrying out terrorists/suicide attacks.

The government had earlier put in place a computerized data system at Chaman point for cross-border movement of Pakistani and Afghan nationals, especially the traders.

Meanwhile, the sources said the interior ministry had directed the NWFP police to utilize all available resources for protection of troops deployed in the restive Swat Valley to crack down on the militants backed by Tehreek-i-Nifaze Shariat-i-Mohammadi (TNSM).

The district police officers (DPOs) of Nowshera, Mardan, Peshawar and Swat have also been directed to cordon off the roads and areas during the movement of military convoys for Swat and Malakand areas.

Security has been tightened further in Peshawar, Nowshera, Risalpur and Mardan cantonments and police have been deployed at sensitive installations to guard against any untoward incident.
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Pakistan troops killed in ambush
Wednesday, 18 July 2007 BBC News
At least 17 Pakistani soldiers have been killed in an ambush by militants near the Afghan border, officials say.

Twelve militants also died in the clash about 25km (15 miles) from Miranshah in North Waziristan, the army said.

President Musharraf has again ruled out declaring an emergency. There have been a spate of attacks since soldiers stormed a radical mosque in Islamabad.

The mosque assault prompted militants along the border to scrap controversial peace accords with the government.

Suicide bombings

A military spokesman said that in addition to the soldiers killed on Wednesday, another 14 had been injured in the ambush in the Lwara Mundi area of North Waziristan.

Pro-Taleban militants are said to have attacked the soldiers' convoy with rockets, then opened fire with automatic weapons.

Military officials said 12 militants were also killed in the gun battle, as well as five others in a separate clash in the area. There was no immediate independent confirmation of the claim.

Speaking to newspaper editors in Islamabad, President Musharraf again stressed that he would not announce a state of emergency in the face of the violence.

"Al-Qaeda has weakened because of the actions taken by Pakistani forces," the state-run APP news agency quoted him as saying.

"We are in direct confrontation with the extremist forces - moderates versus extremists."

Gen Musharraf also promised that elections due later this year would be held on time, APP said.

The latest violence followed a suicide bombing in North Waziristan on Tuesday that killed three soldiers and a civilian.

Three suicide blasts over the weekend left more than 70 dead near the border.

On Tuesday evening, a bomb killed at least 15 people at a lawyers' rally in the capital, Islamabad. It is not clear who was behind that attack.

'Holy war'

Militants say they have torn up their peace agreement with the government because new check posts have been set up in the tribal area and compensation has not been paid to families of tribesmen killed in army operations.

Pakistani authorities have been trying to shore up the deal since it broke down on Saturday.

Correspondents say that without it, the army risks fresh violence in a region thought to contain many militants.

The government has sent thousands of new troops to the north-west fearing there could be a new "holy war" in revenge for the siege.

Many of the militants in the Red Mosque (Lal Masjid) complex in the capital were thought to have come from the north-west.

President Pervez Musharraf last week vowed to root out extremists "from every corner of the country".
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Pakistan struggles with damage control
By Syed Saleem Shahzad Asia Times Online / Wednesday, July 18, 2007
KARACHI - Pakistan is getting the backlash it expected after the military action to root out militants from the Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) in Islamabad, but further violent reaction could come from a new kind of enemy.

The country's intelligence agencies have warned President General Pervez Musharraf to expect an explosion of violence, some of it from a loosely interlaced network of underground

militants across the country. Militants claim that more than 1,500 people, mostly madrassa students, died in the attack on the Lal Masjid last week, which lasted several days. The government places the deaths at 75.

According to the intelligence warnings, the reaction will include kidnappings and killings of Pakistan Army officers and family members. The president has also been informed that the Inter-Services Intelligence's (ISI's) proxy network in the tribal areas is collapsing. A manifestation of this is the Taliban's removal of Haji Nazir as commander of South Waziristan. Nazir this year led a massacre of Uzbek militants in the tribal area, in cooperation with the Pakistani armed forces.

Top military and civilian leaders are trying their hardest to talk to the Pakistani Taliban in an effort to defuse the situation, but it is little-known militant groups that pose the biggest threat, and the ISI has little or no access to them.

Dozens of security personnel have already been killed in the tribal areas since the raid on the Red Mosque, and more attacks are expected.

Changing faces

As a general rule, Islamic militants have a strong knowledge of Islamic tenants and they have a roadmap of Islamic revolution imprinted on their minds, including a full understanding of what constitutes a model Islamic state.

From recently spending time with militants in the "red" zones of the Swat Valley in NWFP and Bajaur Agency, a different picture emerges. Previous interaction over the years with militants suggested that they at least were obsessed with defeating the Western coalition in Afghanistan and reviving the Taliban government. However, the present breed of jihadis rapidly emerging in the Swat Valley, Bajaur, North Waziristan and South Waziristan is different.

The militants this correspondent encountered could hardly be called "revolutionary", and they were not fully trained combatants. At best they could be described as disgruntled youths who have been manipulated by clerics, or simply fired up by incidents such as Lal Masjid.

They are up in arms and want to take on the government. They say they want to kill Musharraf, but they don't know how, or what they would do next. This scenario promises to generate serious violence, but not revolution. The militants are divided into small groups, united only in a desire to fight their common enemy, the Pakistani military establishment.

Of dozens of such militants this correspondent met, Rauf (not his real name) is a good example. He is a student at a madrassa in a village in the Malakand area of Swat.

Rauf's journey to jihad began when a few years ago he heard one of the famous speeches of Maulana Masood Azhar, called "Babri Masjid", on an audio cassette. Azhar's Jaish-e-Mohammed was involved in the struggle over disputed Kashmir with India, and the tape dealt with the topic of a temple site disputed between Muslims and Hindus in India.

An inspired Rauf went to Afghanistan for several months. He interacted with several charismatic people and chose the life of a Talib (student) and made jihad the motto of his life.

"I did not read much. I only started my Islamic learning recently. Actually, my inspiration was the people around me in Afghanistan's jihadi camps. One person was Shiekh Omar [Ahmed Omar Saeed Sheikh - involved in the killing of US journalist Daniel Pearl in 2002]. I was one of his students. He used to teach us sophisticated techniques of guerrilla warfare, including hijacking aircraft. We were all thrilled by his charismatic personality."

Rauf claims that he is ready to take on the military, like his fellow villagers, once they are deployed in the Swat Valley. Maulana Fazlullah, the leader of the banned pro-Taliban Tehrik-Nifaz-i-Shariat-i-Mohammadi (TNSM - Movement for the Enforcement of Islamic Laws) has announced that people should remain peaceful as long as troops are in the towns in the area, but once they are stationed in the mountains they are fair targets.

The military establishment has hurriedly contacted a number of religious leaders to get them to use their influence in calming militants, but their authority does not extend to many of these new militants, including even Fazlullah.

Last Thursday's attack on a military convoy in Swat illustrates this. The man who rammed his car into the trucks - killing himself and several policemen - was initially suspected to be one of Fazlullah's people. In fact it was Noor Mohammed, once the chief of the banned Harkat ul-Mujahideen in Malakand Agency. He had been underground for the past few years and had developed his own network of youths scattered in remote villages.

Noor was a planner of asymmetric warfare, which he learned in training camps in Afghanistan. Contacts close to his network believe that he never planned to carry out the attack but was transporting explosives in his car, as well as suicide jackets. They say that he was at the wrong place at the wrong time and, when he realized he was in the middle of a convoy, he detonated some explosives, as he knew he would be caught.

But whether he set out on that day as a suicide bomber or became one on the spur of the moment is not the point. What has alarmed the authorities is that he had fallen off their radar screens. They now suspect there are many more such networks as Noor's, and they could stretch across the country.

This adds yet another facet to Musharraf's struggle against extremism and militancy.

Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief.
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Ukraine to open embassy in Kabul
Paktribune July 18, 2007
KABUL: Foreign Minister of Ukraine Arseniy Yatcenyook has said that his country would open its embassy in Kabul by the end of the current year.

Speaking at a joint news conference with his Afghan counterpart Dr. Ragin Dadfar Spanta, the Ukrainian FM hoped that friendly relations between the two countries would improve in future.

The foreign dignitary said that his country would help Afghanistan in energy, education and reconstruction sectors. Besides, Ukraine would also help Afghanistan in formation of its military.

Speaking on the occasion, Foreign Minister Dr. Rangin Dadfar Spanta said Ukraine would help Afghanistan in gas and energy sectors, construction of small water resources, promotion of engineering, de-mining and other sectors.

Presently, 50 Afghan students are being allowed to get admission in Ukrainian educational institutions under special quota for Afghanistan.

To a question about the action taken by the government of Pakistan against the Lal Masjid, Spanta said terrorism must be dealt with an iron hand anywhere in the world.
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Afghan president asks nomads to leave district temporarily
Text of report by Afghan independent Ariana TV on 17 July
[Presenter] President Karzai has asked nomads to evacuate Behsud District of Maidan-Wardag Province on a temporary basis.

Five people have been killed and 11 others sustained wounds since clashes broke out between the local residents and the nomads.

[Correspondent] There have been clashes between the residents of Behsud District and nomads over pastures as a result of which five people have been killed and 11 others injured. President Karzai has called on the nomads to evacuate the area temporarily.

Engineer Wahidollah Sabawun, the minister adviser on tribal affairs who heads a committee established to address the problem, told Ariana TV that the nomads will leave the area for a week and the displaced people will return home.

[Sabawun in Pashto] The displaced will return home and the committee has decided to help those whose homes have been destroyed. To that end, the nomads are to leave the area for one week. [words indistinct]

[Correspondent] The nomads claim to have legal documents proving that they own some plots of land, but the locals emphasize that the documents are fake. It is said that five people from both sides have been killed in the clashes.
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Security Council welcomes recent initiatives to support Afghanistan
UN News Center
17 July 2007 – Condemning recent attacks against civilians in Afghanistan, the Security Council today affirmed its support for recent initiatives aimed at enhancing security, stability and development in the war-torn nation.

In a statement read out by Ambassador Wang Guangya of China, which holds the Council’s rotating presidency this month, the 15-member body referred to a recent rule of law conference held in Rome as well as Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon’s visit to Kabul, saying these developments “reinforce the progress made in pursuing a comprehensive approach to the security, governance and development of Afghanistan.”

The Council’s action followed a briefing from Assistant Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Hédi Annabi on recent developments on the ground, as well as the Rome conference.

In today’s statement, the Council also reiterated its support for the continuing endeavours by the Afghan Government, with the assistance of the international community, to further improve the security situation and to continue to address the threat posed by the Taliban, Al-Qaida and other extremist groups.

In addition, Council members condemned “in the strongest terms” all suicide attacks against civilians and Afghan and international forces and their destabilizing effects on the country’s security and stability, as well as the use by the Taliban and other extremist groups of civilians as human shields.

Expressing its concern about all civilian casualties, the Council reiterated its call “for all feasible steps to be taken to ensure the protection of civilian life and for international humanitarian and human rights law to be upheld.”
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Poppy eradication risking lives, warn MPs
Richard Norton-Taylor - Wednesday July 18, 2007 The Guardian
The lives of British soldiers in Afghanistan are being put at risk because failure to develop a coherent strategy for eradicating the country's opium poppies has led to the Taliban forming an alliance with heroin traders, a highly critical parliamentary report warns today. The Commons defence committee also warns that the refusal of other Nato countries to deploy more troops to Afghanistan is undermining Nato's credibility and the international military operation in the country.

Tony Blair accepted British responsibility for developing a counter-narcotics strategy in a country which provides some 90% of the heroin on British streets, yet the policy lacked "coherence and clarity" while the Taliban was developing close links with the narcotics trade, the MPs say.An opium poppy eradication programme is starting but without the money promised, or needed, to provide Afghan farmers with an alternative livelihood. The defence committee heard evidence that poppy fields belonging to poor farmers were being destroyed by Afghan officials working with Dyncorp, a private US security company.
 
Most Afghan farmers did not distinguish between International Security Assistance Force - including British - soldiers, Dyncorp employees, or Afghan authorities. As a result, even though British troops did not take part in eradication, they were a target for opium farmers worried about losing their livelihood, says the committee.

"We are deeply concerned that uncertainty has arisen among Afghans about [Nato-led] policy towards, and role in, poppy eradication and that UK forces ... may consequently have been put at risk," the MPs say. They paint a picture of almost complete confusion, with the government failing to explain the purpose of British operations in Afghanistan at a time when an increasing number of its troops are being shot. This year, 20 have been killed and 26 seriously wounded in southern Afghanistan, where 7,700 UK troops are based.

The MPs' report comes as the Ministry of Defence is preparing to announce a changeover in regiments deployed in Afghanistan and Iraq. It is expected tomorrow to announce a modest reduction in the number of British troops in southern Iraq from 5,500 to 5,000.

The defence committee says that combating the narcotics trade is crucial to the future stability of Afghanistan. Yet senior British officers have told the Guardian that there is no clear policy within the British government, let alone among the Nato allies. The UN warned last month that Helmand province in southern Afghanistan, where British troops are based, is on the verge of becoming the world's biggest drugs supplier, cultivating more than entire countries such as Burma, Morocco, or even Colombia.

Nick Harvey, the Liberal Democrat defence spokesman, said: "Any suggestion that UK forces have been put at risk due to a confused opium policy is deeply disturbing, particularly when it is the British government that has responsibility for the multinational strategy."

Liam Fox, the shadow defence secretary, said: "The committee's report is a severe indictment of the government's handling of the situation in Afghanistan."
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Qaeda has safe haven in Pakistan to attack US
By Khalid Hasan - Daily Times (Pakistan) 18 July 2007
WASHINGTON: The National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), a consensus view of all 16 US spy agencies, released on Tuesday warned that Al Qaeda “has protected or regenerated key elements of its homeland attack capability, including a safe haven in the Pakistani Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).”

The report to Congress, as mandated by law, said that there were found only a handful of individuals in the United States with ties to the Al Qaeda senior leadership since 9/11, but “we judge that Al Qaeda will intensify its efforts to put operatives here.”
The report said that, “Al Qaeda will continue to enhance its capabilities to attack the homeland through greater cooperation with regional terrorist groups. Of note, we assess that Al Qaeda will probably seek to leverage the contacts and capabilities of Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), its most visible and capable affiliate and the only one known to have expressed a desire to attack the homeland.”

According to the NIE, “In addition, we assess that its association with AQI helps Al Qaeda to energise the broader Sunni extremist community, raise resources, and to recruit and indoctrinate operatives, including for homeland attacks. We assess that Al Qaeda’s homeland plotting is likely to continue to focus on prominent political, economic, and infrastructure targets with the goal of producing mass casualties, visually dramatic destruction, significant economic aftershocks, and/or fear among the US population. The group is proficient with conventional small arms and improvised explosive devices, and is innovative in creating new capabilities and overcoming security obstacles.”

The estimate’s “key judgments” included the following: The US will face a persistent and evolving terrorist threat over the next three years. The main threat comes from Islamic terrorist groups and cells, and although greatly increased worldwide counter-terrorism efforts have limited the ability of Al Qaeda to attack the US again. They have also led terrorist groups to perceive the US as a harder target to strike than on 9/11. The present level of international cooperation may wane as 9/11 becomes a more distant memory.
The estimate said, “We assess that the spread of radical - especially Salafi - Internet sites, increasingly aggressive anti-US rhetoric and actions, and the growing number of radical, self-generating cells in Western countries indicate that the radical and violent segment of the West’s Muslim population is expanding, including in the US.”
“We assess that the internal Muslim terrorist threat is not likely to be as severe as it is in Europe, however. We assess that other, non-Muslim terrorist groups - often referred to as ‘single-issue’ groups by the FBI - probably will conduct attacks over the next three years given their violent histories, but we assess this violence is likely to be on a small scale. We assess that globalisation trends and recent technological advances will continue to enable even small numbers of alienated people to find and connect with one another, justify and intensify their anger, and mobilise resources to attack - all without requiring a centralised terrorist organisation, training camp, or leader.”

Monitoring adds: CBS News reports that the northern area of Pakistan has been taken over by Al Qaeda. Pakistani soldiers in the region are all but helpless, it adds.
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Report: Afghan campaign undermined by lack of troops
By David Stringer - 17 July 2007
LONDON (AP) - The NATO mission in Afghanistan is being undermined by failure to provide adequate troops and serious strategic mistakes, a report by a British parliamentary committee said Weednesday.
Echoing concerns expressed by senior British military figures in recent weeks, the committee warned the entire campaign is at risk if key NATO countries continue to refuse to deploy additional personnel.
The report also criticized the pace of work to combat the opium trade in Afghanistan and said NATO is failing to communicate its successes to ordinary Afghans, handing the propaganda initiative to the Taliban.

"The challenges facing U.K. forces in Afghanistan remain huge," said James Arbuthnot, head of Britain's parliamentary defence select committee.

"The security situation in the south of the country is fragile to say the least and the cultivation of poppy is worse than ever."

British Defence Secretary Des Browne welcomed the report's findings. "I agree with the committee's assessment that NATO nations should do more to meet the shortfalls in requirements," Browne said in a statement.

"The U.K. continues to lobby other nations to provide more in terms of military and nonmilitary resources."

Figures released Tuesday showed Afghanistan's illicit heroin-producing poppy crop set another record this growing season, despite stepped-up efforts to combat the trade.

Farmers this year grew 86,000 hectares in Helmand province alone, the most violent region in Afghanistan where NATO forces, mainly British, are battling hundreds or thousands of Taliban fighters.

Though NATO's ISAF force has around 37,000 troops, a much larger number and increased development aid are needed to stabilize the country, the defence committee report said.

Britain has complained its troops, along with those from the United States, Canada and the Netherlands, are the only ones from NATO countries fighting the Taliban in the most violent areas of southern Afghanistan. Other NATO-contributing countries restrict the use of their forces to relatively peaceful areas in the north.

Spain, Italy, Germany and France, all members of both the European Union and NATO, have refused to send additional troops to Afghanistan.

"We remain deeply concerned that the reluctance of some NATO members to provide troops for the ISAF mission is undermining NATO's credibility and also ISAF operations," the report said.

It said Afghanistan needs a military and financial commitment which is "considerably greater than the international community is at present willing to acknowledge, let alone to make."

British troops were deployed to the southern province Helmand last May but an initial strategy of placing soldiers in forward bases left them pinned down by insurgents, Gen. David Richards, former head of NATO forces in Afghanistan told the committee.

He later backed a deal between local tribal leaders and Taliban fighters, under which the Afghans agreed to deny access to the southern town Musa Qala to the Taliban, if NATO troops also withdrew.
But the peace deal crumbled when an estimated 200 Taliban fighters overran the town, seizing control before British soldiers returned.

Richards said the United States opposed the deals, despite calls from tribal leaders in other areas of southern Afghanistan to try the tactic.

"They saw it as a form of surrendering to the Taliban," he told the panel in an April evidence session.

Lord Peter Inge, former chief of Britain's defence staff, told Parliament last week the situation in Afghanistan is worse than most people acknowledge.
 
"We need to face up to that issue, the consequences of strategic failure in Afghanistan and what that would mean for NATO," he told the House of Lords.

Work to eradicate opium cultivation - for which Britain is Afghanistan's international partner - is ineffective, the panel said. Many Afghans also mistook private U.S. contractors carrying out eradication for NATO soldiers, increasing the risk of reprisal attacks.
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Van Doos' can-do culture arrives in Afghanistan
GRAEME SMITH - From Tuesday's Globe and Mail July 17, 2007
KANDAHAR, AFGHANISTAN — A Hercules transport plane roared to a stop at Kandahar air field early Tuesday morning and dozens of troops from Quebec, wide eyed and exhausted, got their first taste of Afghanistan's summer heat.

The fresh arrivals, mostly from Canadian Forces Base Valcartier, near Quebec City, represent the leading edge of a human wave that will engulf this military base in the coming weeks as 2,500 troops replace the previous rotation.

Quebec soldiers will bring a new approach to the mission, they said, expressing hope that their accomplishments during the next six months would win over the skeptics in their province.

“We did a big information campaign this spring to prepare Quebeckers for what we're doing,” said Captain Jérémie Émond, an engineer. “I'm convinced that with our actions, the progress we will make in the coming months, Quebeckers will understand exactly why we're here and will support us.”

Even though they arrived in darkness, the soldiers were sweating within seconds as they clambered down the cargo ramp in full combat gear. In daylight, thermometers near the airstrip show temperatures above 60 C.

Staring up at the insects swarming around floodlights on the tarmac, Sergeant Jonathan Desmarais took a deep breath of the thick air and said it will take a while to adjust.

“After a long trip, we have to adapt to the heat, first of all,” he said. “It's a big shock when you get off the plane.”

Most of the first arrivals will be assigned to protect the Provincial Reconstruction Team in Kandahar city, and some are members of the headquarters staff.

More flights in the coming weeks will bring the combat troops, drawn mostly from the Royal 22nd Regiment, known as the Van Doos.

One of the most senior Van Doos already serving in Kandahar, Canadian chief of staff Lieutenant-Colonel Jean Trudel, said his regiment will bring a unique character to the mission.

“Different, but with the same values,” Col. Trudel said. “We approach problems and challenges perhaps differently; we probably want to have our poutine now and then. However, our values and core ethics … remain the same.”

The chief of staff said he does not expect the language barrier to affect the Canadians' ability to work smoothly with Afghan allies or other foreign troops.

Likely the only people in Kandahar to notice the change will be Canadians, he said. “Obviously we bring our French-Canadian and Québécois culture with us, wherever we go,” Col Trudel said.

Planning ahead for language issues has required extra attention from the staff in Kandahar as they organize the troop rotation, said Major Kevin Mead, assistant to the chief of staff.

“There are all sorts of challenges, and language in this case happens to be one of them, but it's not unexpected,” Major Mead said.

Another problem is the heat, he added. Unlike troops rotating in winter, soldiers arriving in the coming weeks can face temperatures twice as high as those of a Canadian summer.

“You have to pay due attention to that, and you've got to ensure people adjust their lifestyle patterns to ensure they hydrate properly and rest properly,” Major Mead said.

An official change-of-command ceremony is planned for next month, when Brigadier-General Guy Laroche will take over from outgoing Brig.-Gen. Tim Grant. Unlike most of his troops, who serve six-month tours, Gen. Laroche and his staff will remain in Afghanistan for nine months.

Moving thousands of troops in and out of Afghanistan during the relief process is a daunting task, Col. Trudel said.

“It is a huge undertaking,” he said. “It is one of the most demanding operations the Canadian forces can do.” But the process should not reduce the Canadians' combat readiness, Major Mead added.

“If you consider that you've got more soldiers on the ground, you're in fact surging.”
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'Just give us peace,' Afghans ask troops
National Post Canada,  July 17, 2007
Don Martin writes from Afghanistan, where he has been chronicling the work of Canadian soldiers serving as part of the NATO force there. Today, he continues on a mission with Hotel Company in Kandahar province.

GHORAK, Afghanistan -Until the Taliban came calling last month, this mud-walled mountain village in northwestern Kandahar province was home to 100 families.

There was a medical centre, a school and a robust farming community churning out crops of opium-bound poppies supplemented by the more legally desirable, but less lucrative, honeydew melons and cucumbers.

But the doctor disappeared three weeks ago after a Taliban fighter gave him an offer he couldn't refuse. Then the teacher fled after being warned her next day in the classroom would be her last alive. The political leaders that used to preside over the region from the compound abdicated their responsibilities a few years ago.

The heart of their community scared off, the village emptied of villagers. Now there are just seven families waiting -- and hoping -- Canadians can turn their lives around.

The second half of a massive convoy of tanks, light armoured vehicles and supply trucks rumbled into Ghorak under the cover of darkness on Sunday night and set to work fortifying and rebuilding the defences of the regional political centre at sunrise yesterday.

A day earlier, six village elders had met Major Alex Ruff of Hotel Company to learn about a Canadian mission they hope will restore stability and bring back the residents.

It would be easy to denounce this particular mission as a waste of military manpower, after more than 100 bored soldiers lounged around with little to do for 10 days while headquarters slowly dispatched another convoy loaded with barbed wire, sandbags and barriers to fortify the outpost.

As this three-day mission rolls into its 11th day, it seems to me the brass at the Kandahar Airfield deserve a slap on the head for organizational ineptitude and, frankly, dispatching an overkill of firepower, given that locals report only a dozen or so insurgents in the area.

But those village elders are haunting. There's a resigned fear in their eyes as if they've seen every horror and just want it all to end. They confirm a 10-year-old boy in the village was beheaded by the nastiest of the Taliban brutes last week after being observed giving bread to police.

When the father tried to intervene, he was hanged from the nearest tree. Yet, they relay the story through an interpreter with all the nonchalance of having witnessed someone put down a donkey with a broken leg.

Life here is short and cheap. Living is a constant struggle. And yet, ask them what they need from Canada, and their answer is surprising.

Maj. Ruff had his notebook open, ready to take down their wish list. Clean water? Food? Agricultural equipment? Name it.

"Peace," says one elder, barefoot, yet -- inexplicably in a land that runs on AMT (Afghan Maybe Time) -- wearing a knock-off Omega wristwatch. "We don't need anything else. Just give us peace."

No problem, says Maj. Ruff. "That's why we're here." So far, so good. We hadn't been hit by mortar fire or rock-et-propelled grenades at this writing, as the pullout began from this inhospitable amenity-free camp-out.

Trouble is, when our military shield is gone, the village will be protected by a police force that ran away after the last Taliban attack and an army that, while universally praised for its budding professionalism, still looks like its foot soldiers were recruited from a Grade 11 class.

I guess you have to ask yourself to consider the alternative. To leave without doing anything? To let those Taliban bastards terrorize a town into vacating so that their drug-smuggling corridor, which runs directly through this valley, can reopen?

Given that option, there really is no choice. That 's why the soldiers stayed, waited for overdue supplies to arrive and did what they could to repair the site under a broiling sun.

Maj. Ruff insists there's merit in merely parking such a powerful military display in full view of Taliban insurgents, daring them to attack while knowing they'd never attempt such a suicidal mission. It would send a message to the insurgency that the villagers have friends in high and heavily armed places, he says.

Perhaps, then, this is Canada's future in Afghanistan. It's not about unleashing the quick-draw guns to run through grape fields and kill a couple of Taliban fighters for military cameraman.

Read Prime Minister Stephen Harper's words on Afghanistan carefully and, while he talks of letting Parliament decide on ending the military mission in February, 2009, that's not the same thing as ending the humanitarian or reconstruction responsibilities of the deployment.

Canada may well keep soldiers here indefinitely to escort and protect ventures like these -- albeit hopefully more efficiently staged in the future -- that are designed to support Afghans trying to rebuild a society safe from the Taliban's terror.

Canadian forces will leave this isolated outpost -- hopefully today, because there are a lot of filthy bodies screaming for a shower, and none more than a smelly yours truly -- but they'll leave behind a defensive barrier designed to fend off the barbarians, and let a more civilized culture take root.
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DND says it's ensuring troop safety by staying mum
MATT HARTLEY - From Tuesday's Globe and Mail July 17, 2007
OTTAWA — Senior staff at the Department of National Defence are defending the way they release information to the public in the face of criticism and assertions that the department is suppressing documents about Afghan detainees.

A statement released by the office of deputy minister of National Defence Ward Elcock last Wednesday says officials are not acting in bad faith, but rather trying to protect the safety of Canadian troops.
“This is being done for one reason and one reason alone: to ensure there is no inadvertent release of information that could assist the enemy and put Canadian, allied or Afghan lives at greater risk,” the statement says.

Last week, The Globe and Mail reported that the office of General Rick Hillier, Canada's top soldier, has been reviewing all access-to-information requests related to detainees since last March, when allegations of prisoner mistreatment first came to light. The result has been an almost blanket ban on the release of new information, including many documents similar to those already made public.

The statement says National Defence is following all access-to-information protocols, and that the review process of the Strategic Joint Staff – a newly created group that advises Gen. Hillier and carries out his role in the access-to- information process – ensures “consistency in the release of information” but does not change the standard access-to-information processes for the department.

In recent letters responding to requests filed on behalf of The Globe, National Defence's director of access to information, Julie Jansen, has “exempted in its entirety” the disclosure of detainee transfer logs, medical records, witness statements and other processing forms. The department said the information could not be disclosed for national security reasons.

Canadians first learned of the allegations that three Afghan detainees were abused while in Canadian custody after successful access requests by The Globe and Prof. Amir Attaran of the University of Ottawa last year. In an interview, Prof. Attaran said the decision to withhold documents is part of a culture of secrecy within the Defence Department.

“Let's be blunt, they are acting in bad faith,” he said. “There's no two ways about it. Information, documents that were readily disclosed last year, are now taboo and off limits. How is that in any way construable as good faith?”

Prof. Attaran said access laws haven't changed, only how National Defence is applying it. The word “detainee” does not appear in the statement. The Globe is appealing the Defence Department's decisions on the detainee files.The deputy minister's office did not return calls Monday.

Also Monday, Defence Minister Gordon O'Connor, announced that the Canadian frigate HMCS Toronto and six CF-18 aircraft will be made available to the NATO Response Force until January, 2008. According to a statement from National Defence, the commitment of the additional forces is separate from Canada's contribution to the ongoing NATO efforts in Afghanistan. The Response Force includes up to 25,000 troops from NATO countries that can be mobilized quickly to respond to emergencies throughout the world.
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Musharraf faces big decision
By Ahmed Rashid BBC News  / Tuesday, 17 July 2007
Ahmed Rashid, guest journalist and writer on Pakistan, Afghanistan and Central Asia, says Pakistan's leader faces a stark choice.

The storming of the Islamabad's Red Mosque last week, and the deaths of scores of Islamic militants has placed Pakistan and its leadership on the edge of a deadly precipice.

One wrong move and the already deeply polarized country could plunge into a permanent state of anarchic violence, bordering on civil war.

Al-Qaeda and underground Pakistani extremist groups have pledged to target President Pervez Musharraf, government ministers and the army in revenge for the commando action that bought down the Red Mosque, which had defied the state for six months.

Interior Minister Aftab Sherpao barely survived just such a suicide attack in late April. Gen Musharraf himself has been the target of several assassination plots.

And since the Red Mosque siege some 50 soldiers have been killed by suicide bombers and in ambushes by the militants in the North West Frontier Province (NWFP).

Now Gen Musharraf - himself a former commando - has promised to wage war against all extremist groups and to never allow a madrassa (religious school) to defy the state again.

He has sent thousands of troops to Swat, a tribal territory of NWFP and to the town of Tank where Pakistani Taleban and al Qaeda are attempting to impose their version of a Sharia state.

At the same time Gen Musharraf is faced with a middle-class movement of lawyers and professionals who are fed up with military rule and a burgeoning political opposition movement that held its biggest get together ever in London recently.

He is under intense pressure to spell out soon a time table for free and fair elections and his own future political role.

Although he has pledged to curb Islamic extremism repeatedly since 2001, he has failed to do so. But this time even he acknowledges that the crisis is far more serious.

Open war between the Islamic Republic of Pakistan and the so called 'Sharia state' of the Taleban has to be avoided.

A close adviser to the president says that when he finds himself in a crisis or a political trap, he carries out "a tactical retreat" which he then manoeuvres into "a strategic advance" in another direction altogether - leaving the past issues unresolved behind him.

"It's a typical commando's way of looking at politics and the world," says the adviser.

Now there appears to be no space left for tactical retreats.

Nexus

He is faced with a stark choice - either go for the extremists in a consistent manner as he has promised to do in the past or once again try to appease them. The latter course, many fear, would put the future of Pakistan at risk.

Since 9/11 he has been accused of double-dealing with the West, sometimes bending to pressure to curb Islamic extremism and at other times allying himself with extremists to brow beat or blackmail the governments of Kabul, Delhi or Washington.

Thus far, he has never attempted to break the three decades old nexus between the army and Islamic extremists.

As a result al-Qaeda has found the space and support to regroup in Pakistan's tribal areas, the Afghan Taleban have found a safe refuge in Balochistan province and Pakistani Taleban have spread their propaganda across the Pashtun belt of north-west Pakistan.

If Gen Musharraf takes the first choice he will need to first garner political support and a new political mandate by allowing secular national parties such as Benazir Bhutto's Pakistan Peoples Party and smaller regional parties back into the political arena.

These are parties that have accused him of treating them with contempt since he seized power in a coup in 1999.

But striking a deal with Ms Bhutto and others would mean that the army would have to hold a genuinely free and fair election by the end of the year, allow the independence of the judiciary and media and share power with the politicians - something President Musharraf has been loathe to do.

Isolation risk

Now it seems to many that the army needs to understand that it cannot take on the extremists unless it is prepared to have a credible parliament and civilian government to work with.

If he takes the second path it would mean striking more controversial and fragile peace deals with the Pakistani Taleban, the extremists and militant madrassas. This would involve allowing a weakening of the state's authority and credibility.

Taking the second path could also ultimately mean an abandonment of any pretence of democracy, the imposition of martial law, a further distancing from the West and enormous isolation from the majority of the people of Pakistan.

Whatever choice he makes, Gen Musharraf knows he will still be targeted by the extremists.

Ahmed Rashid is a Pakistani journalist based in Lahore. He is the author of three books including Taliban and, most recently, Jihad. He has covered Pakistan, Afghanistan and Central Asia for the past 25 years and also writes for the Far Eastern Economic Review, the Daily Telegraph and The Wall Street Journal.
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