Afghanistan News January 31, 2006

January 31, 2006

US pledges extra 1.1bn dollars for Afghanistan
LONDON (AFP) - US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has announced plans for 1.1 billion dollars in extra funding for Afghanistan in the coming year as world leaders met in London to discuss the country's future.

"The United States is fully devoted to the long-term success of Afghanistan," Rice told the meeting hosted by British Prime Minister Tony Blair and attended by Afghan President Hamid Karzai and UN Secretary General Kofi Annan.

"For us, it is a strategic partnership. We have committed tens of thousands of our troops to help stabilize the country. We have sacrificed precious American lives.

"In addition to our current commitment of six billion dollars, I am proud to announce that President (George W.) Bush will ask our Congress for 1.1 billion dollars to support the Afghan people in the next (fiscal) year (beginning October 2006)."

Rice paid tribute to the international effort to transform Afghanistan "from tyranny to democracy", describing the world's support for the country as "extensive and impressive".

Some 70 foreign partners were pledging at the meeting to provide international military and economic support to help the Kabul government ensure stability and development.

Rice echoed Karzai, who in a BBC radio interview broadcast earlier Tuesday conceded that his country still had a "tough fight" ahead against a resurgent Taliban and opium traffickers, by stating that more needed to be done.

The new "compact" being agreed upon in London was a way of ensuring the security, prosperity and integrity of the emerging Afghan democracy, preventing it from being derailed by terrorists or the narcotics trade, she said.

"The transformation of Afghanistan is remarkable but incomplete. And it is essential that we all increase our support for the Afghan people," Rice said, describing the change as "an unprecedented moment in the history of freedom".

The United States currently has about 18,000 troops in Afghanistan, nearly five years after leading an international contingent to topple the former ruling Taliban, which was funded by and sheltered Al-Qaeda.

North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) forces are deploying this year in the volatile southern Helmand province to combat Taliban elements and drug producers.

$1 billion earmarked for Afghanistan, ADB President tells London Conference
Source: Asian Development Bank (ADB) 31 Jan 2006
LONDON - ADB plans to provide Afghanistan with US$1 billion in low-interest loans and outright grants over the next five years, ADB President Haruhiko Kuroda will announce today at an international conference. The assistance will promote economic growth and poverty reduction in support of Afghanistan's new five-year development plan, the Interim Afghanistan National Development Strategy (I-ANDS).

Speaking at the London Conference on Afghanistan, opening today, he says ADB would also provide significant amounts of grant-financed technical assistance to promote capacity building and seek ways to mobilize additional private sector financing.

ADB is among the parties at the conference endorsing the Afghanistan Compact, which Mr. Kuroda says is a "new international partnership with Afghanistan that will help ensure a better future for the country and its people." Hailing the Compact as a "bold and ambitious effort," he says, "ADB welcomes this initiative, and pledges that it will do its utmost to subscribe to the Compact's principles, including delivering on our commitment to provide Afghanistan with assistance that effectively contributes to the country's key development priorities, particularly the reduction of poverty."

Mr. Kuroda also encourages Afghanistan's development partners to ensure the effectiveness of their aid, particularly by channeling more assistance directly through the Government's budget. Mr. Kuroda says this will improve the Government's capacity and promote greater accountability. At the same time, he urges the Government to continue its efforts to improve quality of public financial management and raise domestic revenues that are crucial to sustainable development.

"Stringent efforts must also be made to eliminate the scourge of corruption which harms the poor most of all," he says. "All of us must support the effort to eliminate the production of illicit drugs."

Since the resumption of its activities in Afghanistan in 2002, ADB had through end-2005 approved nearly $1 billion in loans, grants, technical assistance, and private-sector investments to support Afghanistan's development. ADB's assistance over the next five years will be subject to the country's progress in implementing both the Compact and I-ANDS, as well as the availability of funding from ADB's concessional lending and grant instrument, the Asian Development Fund.

"Building on the success of the past four years, ADB is confident that together we can help secure a better future for Afghanistan and its people," Mr. Kuroda says.

The London Conference on Afghanistan is hosted by the UK and co-chaired by Afghanistan and the UN.

Afghanistan, donors set to sign new deal in London
Tue Jan 31, 1:53 AM ET
LONDON (AFP) - Afghanistan, struggling to emerge from armed conflict and rigid Taliban rule, was set to sign a new deal with international donors to take its fitful development to a new level.

The five-year Afghanistan Compact will be the highlight of a two-day donors' conference in London attended by the likes of Afghan President Ahmed Karzai, UN Secretary General     Kofi Annan and British Prime Minister Tony Blair.

US Secretary of State     Condoleezza Rice will also be on hand, after she pledged Monday that Washington would never again neglect the vast, poor but strategic Central Asian nation.

"We're not going to make that mistake again," said Rice, standing beside Karzai and recalling how neglect led to Afghanistan becoming a lair for     Osama bin Laden's Al-Qaeda network.

Washington and Kabul are determined to rid Afghanistan of "terrorism" and illegal drug production while promoting peaceful development with the help of strong security forces, Rice added.

Rice met Karzai on Monday to compensate for her abbreviated participation in the conference, which she will be leaving early in order to go back to Washington for US     President George W. Bush's annual State of the Union address.

The Afghanistan Compact is to set out specific targets for bolstering security, improving governance, strengthening the rule of law and human rights, while boosting economic and social development.

The US government is expected to announce a major financial contribution for the next fiscal year during the conference of representatives from 70 countries and organizations.

Washington has been Afghanistan's biggest donor -- nearly five billion dollars -- since leading the war that toppled the Taliban four years ago, but now it wants others to carry more of the burden, US and European officials say.

During a visit Sunday to Denmark, Karzai said Afghanistan will need international aid for five years, 10 years or even longer if it is to bolster its security and rebuild its institutions.

Karzai also called for more money to be put directly into the hands of the Afghan government, despite reluctance from donors amid charges of widespread corruption and incompetence.

Writing last week in the International Herald Tribune newspaper, three US-based central Asia analysts said the London meeting must make up for funding shortfalls following donor conferences in Tokyo in 2002 and Berlin in 2004.

These conferences generated less than half of the 28 billion dollars that the Afghan government believes is required for reconstruction, they said.

"Afghanistan is being shortchanged," argued Karl Inderfurth, a former US assistant secretary of state for South Asia affairs, and fellow Asia analysts Frederick Starr and Marvin Weinbaum.

This week's donors' conference comes as     NATO prepares to raise its troop levels in Afghanistan from 11,000 to 18,500 over the next three years.

The expansion, which focuses mainly on deployments into southern Helmand province, where Taliban fighters still lurk, will allow the United States to withdraw some of its 18,000 soldiers in Afghanistan.

It is a third phase of expansion by the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), which has already deployed in Kabul and northwestern Afghanistan.

Ahead of the London conference, Human Rights Watch appealed to donors and NATO nations alike to help counter the climate of insecurity that has hampered development and access to basic public services for ordinary Afghanis.

"The real measure of security and development in Afghanistan is not the number of foreign troops, but whether people feel safe enough to go to the market, to travel at night to seek medical care, or to send their children to school," said Sam Zarifi, research director of the human right group's Asia division.

Blair pledges to stand by Afghanistan
Tuesday January 31, 11:15 AM ITN via Yahoo! UK & Ireland News
Tony Blair has promised to stand firm alongside the people of Afghanistan as a two-day conference on the country's future opens.

Mr Blair said: "This is a struggle for freedom and for moderation and for democracy and we will be with you."

The conference comes after Britain's commitment of an additional 3,000-plus troops to southern Afghanistan from this summer.

Representatives of donor countries including the UK, US and Germany, together with United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan, will seek to agree a five-year plan covering security, economic stability and anti-narcotics action for Afghanistan.

Afghanistan will receive promises of economic and military support from more than 50 countries at a conference in London on Tuesday in return for pledges to fight corruption and the illegal opium trade.

Four years after the US-backed campaign which ousted the Taliban, Afghanistan remains one of the world's poorest countries and security remains a major obstacle to development.

Russia to write off $10Bln of Afghan debt - Storchak
Jan 31 2006 12:38PM
LONDON. Jan 31 (Interfax) - Russia is ready to write off $10 billion worth of Afghan debt, Russian Deputy Finance Minister Sergei Storchak told journalists in London on Monday.

"Afghanistan's consolidated debt, including interest, is estimated at $10 billion. Russia is prepared to annul this debt if this measure is accompanied by checks and recognition of the debt," he said.

Storchak is a member of the Russian delegation to the January 31- February 1 International Conference on Afghanistan. tm LA

Pakistan's Kasuri reaffirms support to Afghanistan
Tuesday January 31, 1:54 AM
(Kyodo) _ Pakistan's Foreign Minister Khurshid Kasuri said Monday at eminent London think-tank The International Institute of Strategic Studies that the "glass is half full not half empty" when it comes to the developmental progress Afghanistan has made so far.

Speaking on the eve of the two-day London conference on Afghanistan, which he had flown over to attend, Kasuri admitted that a lot still needs to be done in the region but clarified that that is "easier said than done" and that the situation is very complicated.

The foreign minister spoke of his continued support for Afghanistan commenting on the remarkable achievement the country had made in hosting democratic elections and establishing the freely chosen government of Hamid Karzai.

With 75,000 Pakistani troops in Afghanistan, as well as trade deals, high level visits and improving but tentative relations between the two countries, Kasuri highlighted the "direct stakes" they had in the country, stating that Pakistan has played and continues to play a pivotal developmental role in Afghanistan.

And for this reason, contrary to many negative news reports, the foreign minister said that "leaders of the Western world (namely U.S. President George W. Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair) will never stop thanking Pakistan" for their positive input in the region.

With a reported 52 percent of Afghanistan's gross domestic product currently being derived from drugs through the opium poppy trade, Kasuri demanded that the country's serious problems were tackled head on rather than "wished away."

He welcomed the international community's move to conduct a dedicated Afghanistan conference in London as it indicated global involvement for at least another five years which was a "must" if Afghanistan was to continue progressing.

Referring to the recent Palestinian elections, Kasuri implored the West to give the Islamic militant group Hamas - which swept to power last week - a chance in helping to bring about peace to the Middle East.

"Maybe Hamas is well qualified to bring peace to the region, but for that the international community must give it a chance," he said, despite the fact that Hamas has already rejected multiple international calls to renounce its violence against Israel since its electoral victory.

The foreign minister said that the West could not "have their cake and eat it," explaining that as it had called for democratic elections in the region, it should accept the choice of the Palestinian people and not review their funding of the Palestinian Authority simply because the results were not as they had hoped.

"I think something positive could come out of it. Much depends on the Israeli elections (in March)," he said. "I hope the extremists do not win in Israel."

Speaking at a press conference ahead of the Middle East peace-broking Quartet -- consisting of the European Union, United Nations, U.S. and Russia -- taking place in central London Monday evening, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice confirmed Kasuri's calls for international attention in both the Middle East and Afghanistan.

Rice was reluctant to offer any positive words concerning Hamas, admitting that the Palestinian elections had "caught everyone off guard," but did describe Afghanistan as "a wonderful success story" pledging true onward support guaranteed from the U.S.

With further discussions taking place also in London Monday between foreign ministers from the U.N. Security Council's five permanent members, China, Russia, Britain, France and the U.S., plus Germany in its capacity as EU-3 member, on Iran's worrying nuclear developments it looks set to be a key few days for wide and long-reaching international decisions in London.

Afghan MP says billions in aid, but no improvement
Tue Jan 31, 3:46 AM ET
KABUL (Reuters) - Billions of dollars of aid that have poured into     Afghanistan have done little to improve people's lives and sweeping personnel changes in government and aid agencies should be made, a former minister said on Tuesday.

"We do not see the least improvement," Ramazan Bashardost, a former planning minister in President Hamid Karzai's U.S.-backed government, told a news conference at Afghanistan's parliament.

The French-educated Bashardost won a seat in landmark parliamentary elections in September with one of the highest numbers of votes.

Speaking hours before a conference on Afghanistan's aid donors was due to open in London, Bashardost criticized the government, the     United Nations and aid groups.

"The people are asking themselves 'if these billions of dollars have been donated, which of our pains have they remedied, what ointment has been put on our wounds'," he said.

"There is minimum improvement in the lives of the ordinary people," he said.

Aid and how it is used is expected to be a central theme at the London talks, to be chaired by Karzai, U.N. Secretary-General     Kofi Annan and British Prime Minister     Tony Blair.

The government is seeking greater control of aid, saying only a fraction of $11.9 billion disbursed since 2002 has been channeled through international organizations and aid groups and much is wasted.

Bashardost backed the government's call for greater control of aid and said top government and aid officials should be replaced because they had wasted aid.

"All ministers and key government figures have lost their legitimacy," he said.

"There should be changes at the ministerial level, among leading figures of aid agencies, foreign banks and institutions in order to avoid wasting assistance again," he said.

Bashardost resigned as planning minister in late 2004 after a row over corruption in non-governmental organizations (NGOs). He wanted to close nearly 2,000 NGOs, saying they were flouting the law and not working for the benefit of the people.

Since U.S. forces invaded in late 2001 to oust the hardline Taliban, some major roads have been repaired or rebuilt, four million refugees have been repatriated, millions of children and have been sent back to school and numerous clinics built.

But Afghanistan remains among the world's poorest countries.

Millions of people are poorly nourished, about a quarter of all children die before they are five, and half of all men and 80 percent of women are illiterate. Only six percent of people have access to mains electricity.

Afghanistan: Foreign Minister Interviewed About Al-Qaeda, Taliban, Upcoming London Conference
This phone interview with Afghan Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah in Kabul was conducted by RFE/RL's Afghan Service correspondent Zarif Nazar from Prague on 21 January. Abdullah discussed the most recent videotaped message from Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, the current state of the Taliban, terrorist attacks in Afghanistan, and the upcoming London conference on the Afghanistan Compact.

RFE/RL: What are your views concerning Osama bin Laden's recent comments made on audiotape?
Abdullah Abdullah: Osama Bin Laden is the murderer of Afghan people and hundreds of other Muslims around the world. He has betrayed Muslims of the world greatly. Now that he is putting himself in the position of defending Afghan Muslims and Muslims in Iraq, it is strange. While in the case of Afghanistan he has been the cause of the wretchedness. And, before there were any foreign forces in Afghanistan, Osama and his followers caused the death of thousands of people and forcing them into exile. Now that he declares his position as defender of Muslims, especially of Afghanistan, I find it strange. But he must be found, and must be punished, he and his followers who have been with him in all the crimes all this time.
RFE/RL: Do you have a specific view about Osama's proposal to the United States [asking for a cease-fire]?

Abdullah: The United States has given its answer to that. But for Afghanistan, as a victim country of his and his followers' terrorist activities, the only thing Afghan people expect is that he would be punished.

RFE/RL: What is your comment about the recent Taliban claim of not having played a role in the Spin Boldak suicide attack?

Abdullah: I think those Taliban who are in war, and those foreigners with them, are the cause of all this and part of this crime. Those who have made the decision to destroy Afghanistan have committed different crimes in different parts of Afghanistan during the last four years, including the recent crime. Why do they deny it? In the past, also, in some cases they have claimed responsibility and in others they have not. In this recent case, since the causalities were all civilian, the Taliban didn't want to take the blame.

RFE/RL: What about the issue of Pakistan and other neighboring countries? Do they cooperate with you about preventing cross-border entry?

Abdullah: The crossing of people from Pakistan to Afghanistan and the carrying out of terrorist attacks has continued. This indicates that the problem continues to exist. There have been contacts, and relations have been strengthened. But there are still problems. We hope we can come to the point that criminals will not be permitted to come and cause insecurity in Afghanistan from any of the neighboring countries.

RFE/RL: About the upcoming London conference: what preparation has the Afghan government made and what issues will be discussed?

Abdullah: The conference, which will be held in London, will be about an Afghan [plan or proposal] which is a mutual commitment by Afghanistan and international society for continuing efforts for stability and security in Afghanistan, the strengthening of the state, and its economic and social development. We are hoping that more than 60 countries and international organizations will take part in this conference. From Afghanistan a delegation headed by President Hamid Karzai will attend. In fact, after the Bonn and Tokyo conferences, this is the most important event with relation to international aid to Afghanistan and the position of Afghanistan with regard to issues relating to Afghanistan and international society. In fact, we expect a five-year framework of cooperation to be endorsed by the participating countries.

RFE/RL: Now that your government has accomplished the Bonn conference terms and conditions, it has been said that the government wants to directly implement the aid as opposed to letting the NGOs [implement it]. Do you have any specific proposals on this?

Abdullah: Yes. Our specific proposal for the international community is that Afghanistan's role in implementing and the ownership of the aid should be increasingly greater. At the beginning all aid was implemented through NGOs. This has changed today and we hope we can get this commitment from the international community that -- considering the positive efforts the government has made -- there would be substantial change in the role and ownership of the government in terms of international aid. In the document that will be presented to the conference, there is a section about ways of ensuring the effectiveness of the aid. If supported by the participants, there will be commitment in moving in this direction.

RFE/RL: We have heard that Karzai will be visiting Demark. Could you tell us about the purpose of this visit and whether you will accompany him?

Abdullah: Before that, Mr. President Karzai will attend the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland and he will be giving speeches in different sessions there. I will be traveling with him and later he will visit Denmark, one of the Scandinavian countries -- all of which have been assisting in Afghanistan's reconstruction process. Denmark is the only country that, despite invitations to visit, Karzai has not been able to go to. Before the London conference Karzai will have a one-day official visit to Denmark.

Russia does not need another Afghanistan in Central Asia - Putin
31.01.2006, 12.46
MOSCOW, January 31 (Itar-Tass) -- Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that Russia does not want to see a second Afghanistan in Central Asia and the region should follow an evolutionary path of development, and not a revolutionary one.

“We do not want to have another Afghanistan in Central Asia, there should be no revolutions, but evolution that would bring about the establishment of democratic governments,” Putin said about the situation in Uzbekistan.

“We know what happened in Andijan, who fomented tensions in that city and how. It is likewise clear to us that Uzbekistan still has very many problems,” he said.

VIEWPOINT: Afghanistan’s future hangs in the balance
31 Jan 2006
Scott Braunschweig, Afghanistan advocacy coordinator for CARE International, writes an open letter to international donors meeting in London this week.

This is a make or break moment for Afghanistan. Western governments and international funders at this week’s donor conference in London have a golden opportunity to consolidate and increase their investment in the country’s stability. If they fail to embrace it, they will undermine the future of Afghanistan at a most fragile time.

2006 marks the fifth year since the fall of the Taliban, a critical point in terms of stabilisation and reconstruction efforts.

Many examples of post-conflict state failures have demonstrated the fragility and instability of peace at this stage. Decreases in international support at this point, often as the political spotlight swings elsewhere, have been seen time and again to act as a catalyst for renewed conflict. This happened in Afghanistan’s recent history after the Soviet withdrawal.

But despite the delicate timing and historical warnings, and despite its vast under-funding compared with other post-conflict places such as Kosovo, the international community again risks turning its back on Afghanistan. Concern about U.S. troop pull-outs and reports of decreases in aid money abound.

Short-term thinking could prove disastrous for Afghanistan. To turn the tide of recent events and ensure a lasting stability in the region, donors must instead step up their long-term commitment, both political and financial.

The problems of Afghanistan – security, opium and poverty - are as complex as they are intertwined and can only be addressed successfully with sustained solutions that address the underlying causes, not just superficial symptoms.

Afghanistan is an incredibly poor country – with the lowest development indicators in Asia, limited infrastructure, difficulty competing in the free market and a great dependence on high-risk variables such as security and the weather.

Crime is a serious problem. Security incidents continue with worrying frequency and magnitude and are an increasing risk, not just for the military, but for the general public, police officers, teachers and aid workers too. Recent reports indicate that there have been more insurgency-related deaths in the past year than in any year since 2001.

On top of that, the opium trade presents a huge problem for the future, propping up Afghanistan’s fledgling economy. The country has by far the greatest dependence of any national economy in the world on an illicit drug. It is estimated that opium makes up more a third of the national economy, whilst being a major corrupting influence in the incipient government.

The opium economy is the clearest example of why a holistic and long-term approach is vital. Experience from across the world, from Thailand to Colombia, demonstrates that short-term eradication and military-led strategies are likely to fail.

Instead, sustained investment in promoting alternative livelihoods and law enforcement is required. This kind of response needs a commitment of decades, not just years.

The Afghan government will be proposing its solutions in its five-year Afghan National Development Strategy at the London conference. It will push for donors to back the plan and to sign the “Afghanistan Compact” - a document committing both sides to deliver on benchmarks across the most pressing issues facing the country: security; governance and the rule of law; human rights; sustainable economic and social development; and counter narcotics, within a five-year timeframe.

That the government has developed this strategy is an important start, as Afghan-ownership will be central to its success. But Kabul will continue to need the support of the international community if it is to be able to uphold its end of the Afghanistan Compact and follow through on the Afghan National Development Strategy. It is only with time and effort that the government of Afghanistan will be able to survive and serve its people adequately on its own.

The worst case scenario for Afghanistan is that London is remembered as the “last Afghanistan Conference”, instead of a moment of recommitment in a long-term relationship between donor governments, donor institutions and Afghanistan.

Three dead after Afghan-Taliban clash
Tuesday January 31, 11:12 AM
KANDAHAR, Afghanistan (Reuters) - Afghan villagers clashed with Taliban insurgents and two Taliban and a villager were killed, police said on Tuesday.

The clash erupted when a small group of Taliban tried to take refuge in a village near the southern border town of Spin Boldak on Monday night, said provincial governor Assadullah Khalid.

As well as the three people killed, seven villagers were

wounded, said Spin Boldak police chief Abdul Wasi.

The area is near the border with Pakistan in Kandahar province, one of the most restive parts of the country where Taliban insurgents and drug gangs operate.

Afghanistan's poor security, especially in the south and east, was expected to be a major theme at a two-day conference of the country's aid donors that began in London on Tuesday.

U.S. and Afghan opposition forces ousted the Taliban from power in late 2001, after the hardline Islamists had refused to hand over the al Qaeda leader, Osama bin Laden.

The Taliban have been waging an insurgency since then, demanding the withdrawal of U.S. and other foreign troops.

Afghanistan power project may be shelved, says official
Tuesday January 31, 2006 (0057 PST) PakTribune.com, Pakistan
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan is likely to abandon a project for the supply of electricity to Afghanistan, a senior government official has said according to the Pennisula News paper.

The power supply project was part of President Pervez Musharraf’s $200m assistance package for reconstruction of the war-ravaged neighbouring country.

The Committee for Rehabilitation and Reconstruction of Afghanistan (CRRA) has told to the government that the project is not feasible and recommended its abandonment, the official said.

The estimated cost of the project was Rs1.09bn and had been approved in the second meeting of Joint Economic Commission (JEC) in 2003.

The official said that Pakistan is facing severe electricity shortage with continued power breakdowns in the North West Frontier Province, particularly in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas.

Militants begin targeting Afghan schools parallel to soldiers
KABUL, Jan. 30 (Xinhuanet) -- While keeping on attacking Afghan and the U.S-led coalition forces the suspected Taliban militias have begun targeting educational institutions parallel to soldiers in the post-Taliban Afghanistan as over 20 schools have been torched in the war-torn country over the past three months.

In their latest wave of violence against education, the suspected Taliban operatives set on fire a secondary school in the insurgency-hit southern Helmand province Saturday night and turned to ashes all the books and furniture found there.

The incident follows burning down four more schools in the same province as well as in Laghman on Friday night where the authorities blamed the "enemies of peace" a term used against Taliban loyalists.

Though, remnants of the former regime have not claimed responsibility for attacking the schools, the militias during its six-year reign in major part of the country that ended by the U.S.-led military campaign in late 2001 had banned girls' schools and changed the curriculum at educational institutions.

The former fundamentalist regime stressed on religious subjects largely in schools and universities.

It allowed girls to learn religious subjects before reaching mature while banned autopsy at medical colleges in the country.

According to local media reports, the militants' new tactic attacking the schools has forced local authorities to shut down 200 schools in the volatile provinces of Kandahar, Helmand, Zabul and Uruzgan provinces in south Afghanistan.

Parents of the pupils, have been asking the government to ensure security for the educational institutions in order to allowtheir children to be educated, the media said.

Besides cracking down on militants almost on daily basis, the Afghan government has been trying to provide educational facilities in each part of the country and encourage locals to send their offspring to schools. However, the government has yet to publicly punish any one on charge of torching education centersin the country.

The suspected Taliban operatives have claimed responsibility for the murder of two teachers in Helmand province over the past two months and warned others not to teach girls in any school, themedia said, adding that they also called on the parents not to send their daughters to education centers.

The Taliban-linked militias who staged a violent comeback two years ago have vowed to oust the Karzai-led Afghanistan governmentand evict the U.S.-dominated foreign troops stationed in the country.

Over 1,500 people including the rebels, Afghan and American troops as well as aid workers and pro-government religious were killed in Taliban-linked militancy in 2005 while the militants' attacks have left 30 people dead and 50 others injured including one American and three Canadian soldiers since the beginning of this month.

Twenty one persons, all of them, were civilians lost their lives in a suicide attack in a single day in Kandahar's border town of Spin Boldak two weeks ago, according to officials.

Though, the Taliban fighters have denied their involvement in the bloody incident but officials blamed the "enemies of peace" a term used against Taliban-linked militias for the attack.

Taliban's elusive chief Mullah Mohammad Omar who has escaped the U.S. biggest manhunt in the region since the collapse of his regime four years ago in his rare statements vowed to continue Jihad or holy war by any possible means till overthrowing the regime and withdrawal of foreign troops from the county.

Officials Fired for Drug Links
While some applaud the dismissal of local leaders accused of corruption, others remained unconvinced the government serious about halting the drug trade.
Institute for War and Peace Reporting By Sayed Yaqub Ibrahimi in Mazar-e-Sharif (ARR No. 200, 30-Jan-06) Sayed Yaqub Ibrahimi is an IWPR reporter in Mazar-e-Sharif.
In a case that could have wide repercussions for Afghanistan’s battle against corruption, five government officials in the Chamtal district in the northern province of Balkh have been dismissed for alleged involvement in the drug trade.

This is the first time the government has taken action against its own, and the sackings are being billed as the start of a general anti-corruption drive.

The sacked officials include the district government head, the chief of police, the chief of security, the chief of staff and the prosecutor. They were dismissed from their posts in mid-January and handed over to the provincial prosecutor’s office for interrogation.

The charges against them include accepting bribes from opium poppy farmers in order to halt the eradication process now under way in the north.

Afghanistan is the world’s largest supplier of opium, the raw material used to produce heroin. A 2004 United Nations study estimating that the country accounted for close to 90 per cent of the world’s heroin supply prompted a major eradication effort, and in 2005 the total area under cultivation was reduced by over 20 per cent.

The crackdown in Balkh began in November, after Muhibullah Ludin, an official with the counter-narcotics ministry in the northern provinces, found that eradication efforts there were lagging.

Provincial officials gave farmers ten days to destroy their poppy crops. Once the deadline had passed, they began to arrest violators, and since early November, nearly 100 farmers have been arrested and jailed.

But 60 of those imprisoned have since been released, with the provincial head claiming that this was the result of bribes paid to district officials.

“Some officials are filling their pockets by taking advantage of the process,” said Balkh governor Atta Mohammad Nur.

Atta Mohammad added that he is determined to crack down on poppy cultivation and will dismiss any government officials who are implicated in the narcotics trade.

"I will prevent the expansion of poppy cultivation this year with all the means at my disposal,” he said.

Abdul Ghafar Lal Purwal, head of the interrogation department at the Balkh province prosecutor's office, told IWPR that any officials found to be involved in drug trafficking would be prosecuted to the full extent of the law.

“These people are being interrogated, and if the allegations on them are proved, they will be handed over to the courts,” he said.

The accused officials are still free on bail. But they are required to come to the prosecutor’s office daily for questioning.

Zabiullah Akhtari, a senior government official in Balkh, told IWPR that the operation in Chamtal was just the beginning.

“There are investigations ongoing in all 14 districts of the province,” he said, “We have suspicions about officials in two of them. Any officials implicated in the narcotics trade will be dismissed.”

The five officials currently under investigation declined to be interviewed by IWPR.

However, not everyone is convinced that the government is getting serious about tackling the drug problem. Some argue that members of the Afghan administration at the highest level are deeply implicated in the narcotics business, so and punishing lower-ranking officials is a way of seeming to address the problem while leaving the real culprits at large.

“It’s a case of the sharks arresting the small fish,” remarked one observer, who asked not to be named.

“It's useless to put pressure on lower-ranking officials and poppy farmers,” said Kabir Ranjbar, a prominent legal expert, political analyst and member of parliament. “The process must begin with those in the highest echelons of government.”

The present round of dismissals is just for show, Ranjbar added. “Those who are doing the sacking are probably involved in poppy cultivation themselves,” he said. “Poppy growing and drug smuggling are being carried out by local commanders, who totally dominate their areas. Provincial governors can do nothing against them. And in fact, some of the governors are warlords themselves and are linked with the poppy trade.”

Atta Mohammad, along with General Mohammad Daud, the deputy interior minister in charge of counter-narcotics, have both been accused of profiting from the drug trade. Both men, former commanders in the Northern Alliance that helped overthrow the Taleban, have adamantly denied these charges.

Some suspect the arrest of the district officials has more to do with how the proceeds from illegal drug trafficking are distributed than with any real crackdown on the trade.

“District officials have to share the proceeds with senior officials,” said Qayoum Babak, a political analyst in Mazar-e-Sharif. “Perhaps these people were dismissed for not giving a big enough share of their bribes to the higher-ups."

Babak suggested that the farmers who are now behind bars may be there because they refused to pay bribes. “Those with ties to the government would never get arrested,” he said.

Whatever the motivation, Ghulam Farooq Khepalwak, a lecturer at Balkh University and a political analyst, said that this first wave of dismissals in the government will have a positive effect on drug-reduction efforts.

“These officials were supporting poppy farmers and taking bribes from them. Now that they have been dismissed, poppy cultivation will decrease automatically,” he said.

But in order for the change to be permanent, he added, the sackings should start much higher up.

“Dismissals of individuals who promote the planting and smuggling of narcotics should start from the cabinet,” he said. “The government is full of such people.”

Meanwhile, the poppy growers say they feel caught in the middle.

One farmer in Sholgara district of Balkh province, who did not want to give his name, told IWPR, "I am a poor farmer and I had planted poppies on one acre of my land. The government destroyed my crop and put me in prison for a week. That's unfair, because when harvest time comes, it is government officials who buy our crop and smuggle it to other provinces.

"But instead of putting them in jail, they pick on us."

UN, US pressure Netherlands to send troops to Afghanistan
THE HAGUE (AFP) - UN Secretary General Kofi Annan turned up the heat on The Netherlands, warning of dire consequences if its parliament failed to bolster the NATO-led international force in Afghanistan with some 1,200 Dutch troops.

"No one can afford to see a destabilized Afghanistan," Annan said after a brief, unscheduled meeting Monday with Dutch Prime Minister Peter Balkenende.

If The Netherlands balked at sending troops it "would mean that the international efforts in Afghanistan, after all the investment we have put in, may not be successful," Annan added.

The Dutch parliament is scheduled to vote on the deployment on February 2.

Also in The Hague on Monday, NATO commander James Jones of the United States, along with the defense and foreign ministers of Afghanistan, met privately with Dutch deputies to make the case for contributing troops to the 10,000-strong NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF).

Their efforts came on the eve of the London Conference on Afghanistan -- jointly chaired by Annan, British Prime Minister Tony Blair and Afghan President Hamid Karzai -- where the nearly 70 countries contributing to the security and reconstruction of Afghanistan will negotiate future commitments.

The United States has to date shouldered the greatest burden, disbursing some five billion dollars (more than four billion euros) since toppling the Taliban regime in 2001.

"They think they are paying too much for Afghanistan compared to the others and that the cost of the war against terrorism -- a global threat -- should be shared," noted a World Bank official who asked not be be named.

The Dutch government supports the deployment of its troops to Afghanistan, but has encountered stiff resistance in public opinion and in parliament, where safety concerns have been expressed. The government's junior coalition partner, the D66 party, has in particular stated its firm opposition.

If deployed, the Dutch contingent would be stationed in the southern province of Uruzgan, one of the least secure and most violent in Afghanistan.

Also hanging over the debate is the shadow of the 1995 massacre of some 8,000 Muslim men and boys under the nominal protection of a small number of Dutch UN peacekeepers in Srebrenica, Bosnia.

The Netherlands was deeply shaken by that episode, which resulted in the government's resignation when blame was assessed years later in 2002.

US ad agency enters Afghanistan
Tuesday, 31 January 2006, 10:52 GMT BBC News
The world's fourth largest advertising agency, JWT, has become the first such Western firm to enter Afghanistan.

New York-based JWT has signed a joint venture with Kabul-based advertiser Altai Communication.

Although the Afghanistan advertising marketplace remains weak, it and the wider economy are slowly recovering since 2001's overthrow of the Taliban.

Altai currently carries out advertising for the country's leading mobile phone operator, Roshan.

"After recovering from decades of conflict, Afghanistan needs economic support," said JWT Worldwide chief executive Bob Jeffrey.

By investing in Afghanistan, we hope other companies will be inspired to join us

JWT Worldwide boss Bob Jeffrey

"We can contribute to the country's revitalization efforts and benefit from tapping into this nascent market."

'Growing market'

JWT's Afghanistan operations will be able to target the number of Western businesses now returning to the country, such as Coca-Cola.

"By investing in Afghanistan, we hope other companies will be inspired to join us," added Mr Jeffrey.

Altai's other existing clients in Afghanistan include Afghanistan International Bank, Afghan Telecom, Western Union, and the United Nations.

"The private sector and foreign direct investments will fuel the Afghan economy, and the presence of an ad agency is often the first thing to attract these investments," said Altai partner Emmanuel de Dinechin.

Altai Communication is part of a wider business support company called Altai Consulting, which now employs 125 people, 25 of whom are internationals.

Letter From Kandahar
The city appears to be on an economic rebound, but remains a dangerous place.
Institute for War and Peace Reporting By Wahidullah Amani in Kandahar (ARR No. 200, 30-Jan-06) Wahidullah Amani is an IWPR staff reporter in Kabul.
Arriving in Kandahar, I found it difficult to recognise the city after a five-year gap.

Back in autumn 2000, the place I visited lay in ruins from years of fighting, its dusty, unpaved streets firmly in the grip of the Taleban. That came as no surprise, since Kandahar was the cradle of the fundamentalist regime, and it was from here that its leader Mullah Mohammad Omar issued his notorious edicts.

In 2000, it took me two days to reach the city from Kabul, travelling on mostly unpaved roads.

Once I arrived, I headed straight for a roadside stand selling the pomegranates for which the region is famed. I bought a bag, and prepared to enjoy my treat.

The problem was that it was time for prayer, and nothing as mundane as eating a pomegranate could be allowed to get in the way.

I tried to eat one at the kiosk where I’d purchased the fruit, but the owner chased me away, hissing, “I don’t want trouble with the religious police.” The reaction was the same when I stopped at a café and tried to order some tea to have with my fruit.

On the street, the Taleban were wielding their wire whips to herd the population to the mosque. I finally gave in and went to pray. Only after that was I finally able to have a pomegranate.

Now, more than five years later, much has changed - at least on the surface.

It only takes five or six hours to drive the nearly 500 kilometres from Kabul to Kandahar along a smooth, asphalt-paved highway, thanks to a reconstruction project financed by the United States, Japan and Saudi Arabia that was completed in 2004.

The broken-down kiosk from which I bought my pomegranates is now a modern shop on a paved road. Office buildings, shops and apartment houses have sprung on land where once barely a single house stood intact.

Business seems to be booming, and shops selling electronics, clothing and food abound. The university, formerly a “complex” of two single-storey buildings, is now located on a new campus made up of ten four-floor blocks.

People here give much of the credit for Kandahar’s reconstruction to the former provincial governor, Gul Aga Shirzai, and many were upset when he was shifted to Nangarhar province in late June 2005.

But others argue that Kandahar has paid a high price for the economic improvements. They note that Shirzai, a former militia commander, maintained his own private army during his time as governor. Many blame these gunmen for robberies, killings and general lawlessness that have continued to plague the province even after Shirzai’s departure.

“The only thing that really bothers me in Kandahar is the armed men who are still in power,” said Abdul Qawi, a professor at Kandahar Pedagogical Institute, who ackowledges Shirzai’s contribution to the city’s economic improvement. “Most of the police force is made up of the [same] armed men who are responsible for the lack of security in the region.

"The Taleban regime was a cruel one, but they did have good security.”

While the Taleban are no longer visible on the streets, herding people to prayer or enforcing their bans on films, music and kite-flying, they still cast a dark shadow over the city.

In this respect, Kandahar has not changed at all. In fact, in recent months the Taleban appear to have turned their attention to more deadly methods. In 2005 and the first few weeks of 2006, Kandahar became the focal point for terrorist attacks. Earlier this month, a suicide bomber drove his motorcycle into a crowd of spectators at a holiday sporting event, killing 27 and wounding dozens more. Late last year, a series of attacks left many dead, including at least one American soldier.

During a car ride around the town, our driver, Allaudin, showed us the sites of recent bombings. “Two people were killed here, one injured there,” he would say, pointing vaguely through the windshield. “Soon there won't be a single street without its martyrs.”

Shah Mahmoud, a Kandahar resident, worries about his family. “I am not sure of my own life or the lives of my children – not ever, even for a moment. There's a constant risk of death. There are bombs everywhere,” he told me.

Despite the sense of insecurity, however, most residents here appear eager to simply get on with their lives.

Abdullah, 18, a resident of the Daman district of the province, works in a petrol station and says he is satisfied with his job.

“I make enough to live on. Everyone just does his own work and doesn’t bother anyone else. There is no war. Our village now has a road and soon it will have a clinic,” he said.

Not everyone is so fortunate. In spite of the thriving economy, jobs are scarce. Esmatullah, 28, says he has been looking for steady work for months. All that is available, he said, are day-labourer jobs.

“I'm looking for a permanent job but there is nothing. And if I try and take my cart to the bazaar to sell something, the police chase me away. The government needs to find us jobs,” he said.

Still, Esmatullah enjoys the new-look Kandahar.

“I thank God that my ruined city has now been turned into a nice place,” he smiled.

Not Much Limelight for Afghan Actresses
It’s still a man’s world for those hoping to appear on stage or in the movies.
Institute for War and Peace Reporting By Gawhar Naikpai in Kabul (ARR No. 200, 30-Jan-06)
Sadaf, 14, is a little girl with a big dream. "I would like to become a filmstar one day,” said the eighth grader at Rabia-e-Balkhi school in Kabul.

Although there are some job openings these days, there are few real opportunities for Sadaf to pursue her chosen career.

In conservative Afghanistan, acting is seen as a shameful career choice, especially for women. Would-be actresses have to run a gauntlet of disapproving friends and relations to practice their craft.

Parwin Moshtael, 40, a prominent Afghan actress, said she chose her career because she wanted "a chance to reflect the pains and sorrows of Afghan women”.

But some members of her family have yet to reconcile themselves to her decision.

Moshtael recalls how she was living with her married sister when she entered the acting profession. “My sister’s husband wouldn't even speak to me,” she said, adding that he warned her not to come home unless she wore a burqa to conceal herself from the neighbours.

“He used a lot of very bad words about actresses,” she said.

One night, when she did not arrive home until nine because she had been appearing in a show, her brother-in-law locked her out of the house.

“I moved out after that. Now I can't see my sister at all,” said Moshtael.

Some blame this kind of attitude on the Taleban, who not only imposed severe restrictions on women but outlawed most forms of entertainment as well.

“The negative influences of the Taleban are still in people’s minds," said Abdul Latif Ahmadi, the head of the Afghan national film studio and a well-known director. "But we didn't have this problem at all in the Seventies."

Some religious leaders continue to oppose the idea of female actors.

Abdul Qadir, who holds the title of “maulawi”, a high-ranking religious leader, and is also a member of Afghanistan’s Supreme Court, says Islamc precepts prohibit women from performing.

“Islam orders women to cover themselves with a veil,” he said. “So there is no way a woman can appear in movies or go out without this hijab, this covering.”

Maulawi Ziaudin, who works in the Ministry of Haj, takes an even stronger view, saying, “Singing and song are corruption; the Prophet said that it is blasphemy to enjoy music. Based on this, women are not allowed to go on the stage or screen.”

Such attitudes may explain why producers and directors have sometimes had to resort to desperate measures when staging a production.

Zalmai Noori, an actor on Afghan National Television, said he was required to disguise himself as a woman when no actress could be found to take a part.

“In the TV drama 'Taqarori' [Employment] the part called for a woman. We couldn't find an actress, so I had to play the part dressed as a woman. The next day I received a lot of insults because of this,” he said.

At least one director gives some credence to the conservatives’ concerns about women joining the acting profession.

“I have to admit that the cinema did not always have a good reputation or environment,” said Mohammad Seddiq Barmak, director of the internationally acclaimed film “Osama”. “I must be frank – many men in the movie business exploited the actresses. The women were just objects for men’s lust.”

Latif bristles at such charges. “I categorically deny that Afghan cinema was polluted in such a manner,” he said. “Afghanistan’s cinema has always had a special purity.”

Saba Sahar, the head of Saba Film Studio who is not only an actress but also a police officer, agrees with Latif. “I have been in theatre and cinema for over 20 years and I have never seen anything bad in it,” she said. “The cinema and the theatre are sacred. I kiss the ground the theatre stands on. How could this environment be polluted?”

What the industry needs, said Sahar, is an aggressive information campaign by the film-makers' union. “This is the only way we will get families to allow their daughters to appear in movies,” said Sahar.

Those women who have braved censure and shame to become actresses do not seem to regret their choice.

“Society needs actresses in the same way it needs female doctors, engineers and teachers,” said Breshna Bahar, who began her career after the fall of the Taleban.

Bahar has become extremely popular in Afghanistan due to her frequent appearances on television and the big screen.

“I always wear a burqa when I go to the bazaar, otherwise people surround me and bother me,” she said. “I can never go to a public bath.”

Bahar said children follow her on the street, calling her by the name of various heroines she has played.

“I don't really mind,” she laughed. “It's a sign of people’s respect for me.”

Still, it will take a lot of convincing to get some people to agree to women becoming actors.

Abdul Tawab, 16, in the tenth grade at the Isteqlal High School, said that he would never let anyone in his family play a role in a movie.

“Women were created to be at home, not for show,” he said.

Gawhar Naikpai is a freelance journalist in Kabul.

A Taste of Kabul
Uncle Kandahari’s soup is a legend in the Afghan capital.
Institute for War and Peace Reporting By Abdul Baseer Saeed in Kabul (ARR No. 200, 30-Jan-06)
There’s no sign on the building and no name on the door. But the old mud house with the blue windows in the heart of Kabul’s oldest district is known to all - it is Uncle Kandahari’s restaurant, which has been serving up soup for over 40 years.

The name comes from the early history of the place. When Ghulam Hassan came from Kandahar four decades ago and started making soup, he never thought to give his establishment a formal title. So neighbours and surrounding shopkeepers started calling it “Uncle Kandahari’s,” after his home province. The name stuck.

The dining room and kitchen are traditional Afghan: There are two large pots on wood-burning stoves near the entrance, where the soup is cooked. There are no tables or chairs: Guests sit on wooden platforms or "takhta" covered in rugs. The walls are hung with Afghanistan’s famous carpets, adding colour to the surroundings.

Plastic cloths cover the centre of each takhta. A meal consists of a bowl of soup, a chilli pepper, an onion and half an orange, served with a pot of green or black tea. Spoons and forks are not used – the soup is eaten by hand, with Afghan flat bread, or naan.

The menu is simple enough: just meat soup. But it draws such a crowd that there are often lines stretching outside waiting to be served.

Ahmad Shah, 64, said he has been coming to Uncle Kandahari’s for years.

”The owner and staff of the restaurant are very honest. No one else can cook such delicious soup in all Afghanistan,” he said. “Ghulan Hassan, the father of the present owner, had a passion for cleanliness. If a person in dirty clothes came into the restaurant, Ghulan would tell him he’d run out of soup.”

A short grey-bearded man, who identified himself as Anwar, said he worked at one of the Afghan ministries.

”I come three or four times a week to this restaurant to buy soup for ten people. Our superiors like this soup very much,” he told IWPR.

Even foreigners enjoy Uncle Kandahari’s soup.

Dr Thomas Hartmanshenn, a German national, is working as a vulnerability advisor to the Ministry of Rehabilitation and Rural Development.

Kneeling on the takhta, he said this was his first time at the restaurant. “I came with Afghan friends because I have heard so much about this place,” he said. “I am glad I came. It was really delicious.”

The staff made an exception for Hartmanshenn, and let him use a spoon to eat his soup.

The current owner of the restaurant, Mohammad Mehdi, 44, sits quietly in a corner, cutting meat on a wooden drum. He said his father built the restaurant 40 years ago.

“We don't do anything special,” he said. “We're just clean and honest in our work. When we cook, we invoke the name of Allah many times.”

The restaurant uses only lamb for the soup, he said, adding, “I walk around butcher shops until I find the best meat. Maybe the reason our soup is so good is that we only use meat from rams. Ewes are not as tasty.”

The restaurant is open only from 11:00 a.m. to 1:30 p.m.

Uncle Kandahari’s prices are a bit steep by local standards. Although the city sets a regulatory price of 35 afghani for a bowl of soup, Mehdi charges 65 afghani (about 1.30 US dollars) per serving. Still, none of the customers are complaining.

There’s one thing you won’t find at Uncle Kandahari’s restaurant - women. In Afghanistan’s conservative society, women are relegated to separate dining areas in restaurants, and Mehdi says this is just not possible here.

"We haven't enough room in here, so we can’t set aside a place specifically for women," he said.

Abdul Baseer Saeed is an IWPR staff writer in Kabul.

Iran’s export to Afghanistan up 100%
MehrNews.com, Iran
TEHRAN, Jan. 30 (MNA) — Iran’s export of non-oil commodities to Afghanistan reached $369 million in the first nine months of the current Iranian year (started March 21, 2005). This shows 100% growth compared with the corresponding period last year.

This amount of export weighed 524,000 tons.

Medications, painting, detergent products, biscuits, candies, chocolates, soft drinks, mineral water, sheets and cartoons, carpets, stones and construction materials, cement, cloths, shoes, metal concentrate are some of the products exported to Afghanistan in the said period.

Other goods exported in this period include industrial oils, chemical products, petrochemicals, different types of pipes, metal products, iron, and steel.

Household appliances, machineries, industrial equipment, tractors, auto parts, and tires have been also exported to that country.

It is predicted that the volume of the industrial export to Afghanistan will hit $500 million by the end of the current Iranian year, falling on March 20, 2006.

Why the West will attack Iran
Asia Times By Spengler Jan 24, 2006
Why did French President Jacques Chirac last week threaten to use non-conventional - that is, nuclear - weapons against terrorist states? And why did Iran announce that it would shift foreign-exchange reserves out of European banks (although it has since retracted this warning)? The answer lies in the nature of Tehran's nuclear ambitions. Iran needs nuclear weapons, I believe, not to attack Israel, but to support imperial expansion by conventional

military means.

Iran's oil exports will shrink to zero in 20 years, just at the demographic inflection point when the costs of maintaining an aged population will crush its state finances, as I reported in Demographics and Iran's imperial design (September 13, 2005). Just outside Iran's present frontiers lie the oil resources of Iraq, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, and not far away are the oil
concentrations of eastern Saudi Arabia. Its neighbors are quite as alarmed as Washington about the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran, and privately quite happy for Washington to wipe out this capability.

It is remarkable how quickly an international consensus has emerged for the eventual use of force against Iran. Chirac's indirect reference to the French nuclear capability was a warning to Tehran. Mohamed ElBaradei, whose Nobel Peace Prize last year was awarded to rap the knuckles of the United States, told Newsweek that in the extreme case, force might be required to stop Iran's acquiring a nuclear capability. German Defense Minister Franz Josef Jung told the newspaper Bild am Sonntag that the military option could not be abandoned, although diplomatic efforts should be tried first. Bild, Germany's largest-circulation daily, ran Iranian President Mahmud Ahmedinejad's picture next to Adolf Hitler's, with the headline, "Will Iran plunge the world into the abyss?"

The same Europeans who excoriated the United States for invading Iraq with insufficient proof of the presence of weapons of mass destruction already have signed on to a military campaign against Iran, in advance of Iran's gaining WMD. There are a number of reasons for this sudden lack of squeamishness, and all of them lead back to oil.

First, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have the most to lose from a nuclear-equipped Iran. No one can predict when the Saudi kingdom might become unstable, but whenever it does, Iran will stand ready to support its Shi'ite co-religionists, who make up a majority in the kingdom's oil-producing east.

At some point the United States will reduce or eliminate its presence in Iraq, and the result, I believe, will be civil war. Under conditions of chaos Iran will have a pretext to expand its already substantial presence on the ground in Iraq, perhaps even to intervene militarily on behalf of its Shi'ite co-religionists.

What now is Azerbaijan had been for centuries the northern provinces of the Persian Empire, and a nuclear-armed Iran could revive Persian claims on southern Azerbaijan. Iran continues to lay claim to a share of Caspian Sea energy resources under the Iranian-Soviet treaties of 1921 and 1940. [1] For the time being, Azerbaijani-Iranian relations are the most cordial in years, with Iran providing natural gas to pockets of Azerbaijani territory blockaded by Armenia, and Baku defending Iran's nuclear program. As Iran's oil production dwindles over the next two decades, though, its historic claims on the Caspian are likely to re-emerge.

Ahmedinejad's apocalyptic inclinations have inspired considerable comment from Western analysts, who note that he appears to believe in the early return of the Mahdi, the 12th Imam. I do not know whether Ahmedinejad is mad or sane, but even mad people may be sly and calculating. Iran's prospects are grim. Over a generation it faces demographic decay, economic collapse and cultural deracination. When reason fails to provide a solution to an inherently insoluble problem, irrationality well may take hold. Like Hitler, who also was mad but out-bluffed the West for years before overreaching, Ahmedinejad is pursuing a rational if loathsome imperial policy.

Given Israel's possession of a large arsenal of fission weapons as well as thermonuclear capability, it is extremely unlikely that Iran would attack the Jewish state unless pressed to the wall. Faced with encirclement and ruin, the Islamic Republic is fully capable of lashing out in a destructive and suicidal fashion, not only against Israel but against other antagonists. Whatever one may say about Chirac, he is not remotely stupid, and feels it prudent to warn Iran that pursuit of its imperial ambitions may lead to a French nuclear response. French intelligence evidently believes that Iran may express its frustrations through terrorist actions in the West.

By far the biggest loser in an Iranian confrontation with the West will be China, the fastest-growing among the world's large economies, but also the least efficient in energy use. Higher oil prices will harm China's economy more than any other, and Beijing's reluctance to back Western efforts to encircle Iran are understandable in this context. It is unclear how China will proceed if the rest of the international community confronts Iran; in the great scheme of things it really does not matter.

Washington will initiate military action against Iran only with extreme reluctance, but it will do so nonetheless, except in the extremely unlikely event that Ahmedinejad were to stand down. Rather than a legacy of prosperity and democracy in the Middle East, the administration of US President George W Bush will exit with an economy weakened by higher oil prices and chaos on the ground in Iraq and elsewhere. But it really has no other options, except to let a nuclear-armed spoiler loose in the oil corridor. We have begun the third act of the tragedy that started on September 11, 2001, and I see no way to prevent it from proceeding.