Afghanistan News February 25, 2005

February 25, 2005

India renews pledge to rebuild war-ravaged Afghanistan
February 24, 2005
NEW DELHI (AFP) - India has renewed its pledge to help rebuild war-ravaged Afghanistan and signed two accords to help Kabul strengthen its civil aviation sector and television transmission technology, an official statement said.

The signing of the accords followed talks in the Indian capital between Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and visiting Afghan President Hamid Karzai.

The aviation agreement "is aimed at building capacity and strengthening institutional infrastructure of Afghanistan's civil aviation sector," the Indian foreign ministry statement said on Thursday.

"This would include training in areas of airport management, air traffic control and navigational aids including safety and maintenance of aircraft," it said.

The second accord calls for closer links between television and media organisations of both countries.

India has already installed a satellite television uplinking facility in Kabul connecting the Afghan capital with 10 provincial capitals, the statement said.

"Work has already commenced on restoration and augmentation of television hardware in Jalalabad and Nangarhar provinces," it added.

"India will be taking up the next phase of augmentation of TV coverage through additional satellite uplinks and downlinks."

The agreement in media cooperation came after talks between India's information minister S. Jaipal Reddy and Karzai soon after the Afghan leader arrived on a three-day state visit Wednesday.

Indian films -- particularly Hindi language Bollywood films and songs -- are immensely popular among Afghans.

Karzai, on his first trip here since he won elections in October, is heading a delegation that includes eight cabinet ministers.

Indian Foreign Minister Natwar Singh visited Afghanistan on February 15.

India, along with Iran and Russia, backed Afghanistan's Northern Alliance against the fundamentalist Islamic Taliban.

Since the ousting of the Taliban by US-backed forces in late 2001, India has been helping the country develop infrastructure, civil aviation, transport, industry, health facilities and educational institutions.

It is currently working on the Salma Dam project near the western city of Herat, laying power lines from the northern city of Pul-e-Khumri to Kabul and constructing the Zeranj-Delaram road near the Iran-Afghanistan border.

Afghanistan also wants to open a trade corridor with India through Pakistan since most of its imported goods now travel via Iran.

Karzai's India Visit Could Increase Regional Trade Links
Ron Synovitz Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty
Afghan President Hamid Karzai is on the second day of a three-day state visit to India aimed at improving trade links between the two countries. Karzai said in New Delhi on Wednesday that he has asked Pakistan to open a trade corridor for Indian exports to Afghanistan. At the same time, India and Pakistan announced an agreement to cut bureaucratic barriers that hamper trade. Indian officials and independent analysts say New Delhi sees Afghanistan not only as a partner for bilateral trade but also as a transit route for greater ties to markets in the former Soviet republics in Central Asia.

Prague, 24 February (RFE/RL) -- The Indian government has promised visiting Afghan President Hamid Karzai that it will provide Kabul with training in the areas of civil aviation and broadcast media.

Karzai signed a memorandum with the Indian government on Thursday that formalizes the pledge. The document says India will train managers for civilian airports as well as air traffic controllers, navigational aides and aircraft maintenance crews for aircraft.

India also is promising technical assistance for the growth of television and radio networks in Afghanistan. Officials in New Delhi say the Indian government already has completed work on a satellite uplink which can retransmit television broadcasts from Kabul into 10 Afghan provincial capitals.

The projects are the latest in a series of growing ties between India and Afghanistan. On Wednesday, Karzai proposed a trade corridor for Indian exports to Afghanistan through Pakistan. Meanwhile, India and Pakistan announced they have agreed to cut bureaucratic barriers that hamper trade.

Last week, when an Indian delegation led by External Affairs Minister Natwar Singh visited Kabul, Karzai told the group that they should seriously consider joining a project that aims to build a pipeline for natural gas from Turkmenistan. The proposal calls for a pipeline to pass from eastern Turkmenistan through western Afghanistan and Pakistan -- and if New Delhi becomes involved -- on to India.

Although Karzai's aides have said the Afghan president would be lobbying for the pipeline project during his current visit to India, little has been said publicly about the project this week.

Industry analysts say a pipeline through Afghanistan will not be economically feasible unless it also links into the Indian market. Meanwhile, Islamabad is considering a separate plan to build a natural gas pipeline directly from Iran to a regional distribution center in southern Pakistan.

Niklas Swanstrom is director of the Program for Contemporary Silk Road Studies at Uppsala University in Sweden. He spoke to RFE/RL about both proposed pipeline routes.

"The need for [natural] gas is so great in both Pakistan and India that one pipeline would not necessarily take out the other one. [It] would probably be financially more sound to integrate them in some way. But that is probably not going to happen. I think both pipelines are going to run into a lot of political problems. We're going to see construction, maybe. We're going to see even, maybe, sales of [natural] gas. But they still have a lot to prove before I can actually believe that either of those two [proposed pipeline routes] is going to be a tremendous success."

Maqbool Ahmed Siraj is executive editor of the "Islamic Voice" newspaper in Bangalore, India. He tells RFE/RL that in additional to pipelines, India's main economic interest in Afghanistan is to develop a transit route allowing Indian traders to reach markets in the former Soviet republics of Central Asia.

"India thinks that Afghanistan has a strategic geographical position in Asia. It is the conduit to trade ties with all the central Asian countries. That is why, perhaps, the new turn of events in Afghanistan is making India come closer to that country in order that it can explore the new markets in Central Asia. And also, bring in a pipeline through [Afghanistan], which of course, would also have to pass through Pakistan," Siraj says.

Siraj says Indian traders also could be interested in importing some Afghan products and adds: "Afghanistan might interest the people here for two particular items. Traders here mostly would like to have carpets and dried fruits. These are the two items which we were traditionally importing from Afghanistan [before the economy there was destroyed by decades of war]."

During his meeting with the Indian External Affairs Minister on Wednesday, Karzai also expressed Kabul's interest in getting more Indian teachers and doctors to work in Afghanistan.

Siraj says he thinks that in addition to government-funded teachers, companies in India's high-tech sector could offer trainers in computer technology and experts who can help develop Afghanistan's fledgling telecommunications sector.

India to upgrade airline, TV satellite links in Afghanistan
Associated Press / February 24, 2005
India signed agreements Thursday to upgrade civil aviation facilities and television satellite links in war-shattered Afghanistan, as visiting President Hamid Karzai concluded talks with Indian leaders, a government spokesman said.

India will train Afghans in airport management, air traffic control, navigation, safety and maintenance of aircraft, said Navtej Sarna, the External Affairs Ministry spokesman.

He also said Indian Airlines would begin flying to Kabul from New Delhi beginning March 27.

Another agreement envisages India helping rebuild television facilities in the eastern city of Jalalabad and other places in Nangarhar province, Sarna said.

India has already helped Afghanistan set up a series of satellite television facilities and pledged US$400 million (Â€302 million) for reconstruction work in the areas of hydroelectric power, road construction, agriculture, industry, telecommunication, education and health, Sarna said.

Karzai also told Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh that he had talked to Pakistani officials about creating a trade corridor so Indian goods could go from India through Pakistan and into Afghanistan.

New Delhi is also pressing Islamabad for such an agreement, to end the current circuitous route, through Iran.

A statement from Karzai's office said he had asked India to back an oil and gas pipeline that would go from Turkemenistan through Afghanistan and into Pakistan. That pipeline is one of a number of pipeline plans under consideration in the region.

The Indian prime minister promised to look into the plan, the statement said.

Karzai, accompanied by eight Cabinet minister, arrived in the Indian capital Wednesday on a three-day visit.

On Friday, he was to address The India Today Conclave, a forum looking at India's future.

India, Afghanistan decide to resume direct flights:
New Kerala - Feb 24 12:30 PM
[India News]: New Delhi, Feb 24 : India and Afghanistan today decided to resume their direct air services from Mach this year.

After meeting the visiting Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai, Civil Aviation Minister Praful Patel told reporters in the Capital that two direct flights would begin from March 31.

"For the resumption of air services between India and Afghanistan, on March 31, Delhi-Kabul and Amritsar-Kabul, two direct flights will begin. Apart from that they have also sought assistance in the aviation sector from India, we will extend all possible help," Patel said.

Bilateral ties between New Delhi and Kabul have been restored since the ouster of the Taliban regime in late 2001. Afghanistan had cancelled international flights to Europe and other Asian countries when the Taliban took over and sacked the airline's top management.

Earlier in the day, India and Afghanistan signed a pact in the field of Civil Aviation aimed at building capacity and strengthening institutional structure of Afghanistan's aviation sector. The pact includes training in areas of airport management, air traffic control, navigational aids, including safety and maintenance of aircraft. (ANI)

Karzai seeks Indian doctors
PlanetGuru 02/23/2005
New Delhi - Afghan President Hamid Karzai, who arrived here Wednesday on a three-day visit, has sought more Indian teachers and doctors for his country's socio-economic reconstruction programme.

During a meeting with External Affairs Minister K. Natwar Singh, Karzai reviewed the entire spectrum of bilateral relations and asked for India's increased involvement in the social sector of his war-ravaged country that has shown remarkable resilience in rebuilding itself.

The 46-year-old Afghan president also showed interest in a tele-medicine project that would be useful in the difficult terrain of his country. The Afghan health minister is likely to attend an international conference here on this project in March.

Karzai expressed enthusiasm about pushing a trade corridor for Indian exports to Afghanistan through Pakistan and promised to take up this issue with Islamabad soon. Karzai is accompanied by a high-power delegation, including eight cabinet ministers. Indian Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran received him on his arrival.

Natwar Singh thanked Karzai for the hospitality shown to him and his delegation during his visit to Afghanistan Feb 15. He briefed Karzai on his subsequent visit to Pakistan and the visit of Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi to New Delhi that concluded Tuesday.

India, which is among the top six contributors to Afghanistan's reconstruction, has committed over $400 million as assistance to Kabul since 2002 and is helping it in areas as diverse as infrastructure, education, healthcare and social welfare.

Karzai had said in Kabul last week that though his country received assistance from many countries, the "best assistance came from India".

This is Karzai's third visit to India since 2002, and the first one after the presidential elections last year that returned him to power. India has gifted 285 vehicles to the largely US-trained Afghan National Army. Another 15 ambulances are to be handed over soon.

AFGHANISTAN ENERGY MINISTER CALLS ON SHRI P.M. SAYEED
20:31 IST Press Information Bureau (press release), India
Shri Mohammed Ismail, Minister of Energy, Afghanistan called on Shri P.M. Sayeed, Union Minister of Power today. The two Ministers discussed the possibilities of expanding cooperation between India and Afghanistan in power sector.

Indian Minister offered all possible assistance for reconstruction and strengthening of Afghanistan’s power system with the objective of making electricity available to the common people of Afghanistan.

India has undertaken reconstruction of the Salma Dam Power Project that would generate 52 MW of electricity.

The Union Power Minister also offered assistance to Afghanistan for providing training in different areas like generation, transmission & distribution and also for providing consultancy services for development and reconstruction of different transmission and generation projects.

Both Ministers agreed to also explore the possibility of construction and development of more power sector projects for which India could extend assistance to Afghanistan.

Six suspected Taliban killed, five Afghan soldiers injured in clashes near Pakistan border, police say
KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) Gunbattles near Afghanistan's insurgent-haunted border with Pakistan left six suspected Taliban militants dead and five government soldiers wounded, Afghan police said.

The soldiers were hurt when guerrillas opened fire on their vehicle near Ali Khel, a town in Khost province 150 kilometers (90 miles) south of the capital, Kabul, police chief Mohammed Ayub told The Associated Press.

Extra troops sent to aid their comrades from a government-aligned regional militia tracked the retreating attackers to a nearby mountain where they engaged them again, killing six rebels, Ayub said. Five assault rifles and a rocket-launcher were seized, he said.

Khost lies in a swath of Afghan territory along the Pakistani border where militants regularly mount ambushes and bombings, despite the presence of many of the 17,000 U.S. soldiers still in Afghanistan three years after the fall of the Taliban.

The violence has slowed during the winter months, but purported Taliban officials have vowed that attacks will intensify when the weather improves, despite a government reconciliation offer to ``non-criminal'' supporters of the hardline militia.

Aid workers have also been targeted, though it was unclear if militants or robbers were behind the shooting deaths of two health workers from an Afghan relief organization in southern Afghanistan last week.

Pakistan leader: Al-Qaida-linked militants in disarray at Afghan border
By MUNIR AHMAD
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan (AP) President Gen. Pervez Musharraf said on Thursday that Pakistani forces have destroyed al-Qaida-linked militants' sanctuaries and communication systems along the Afghan border, but still have no clue as to Osama bin Laden's whereabouts.

Musharraf told reporters that Pakistan a key ally in the U.S.-led war on terrorism since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the United States had captured 700 terror suspects in cities, and ``eliminated'' hundreds in military campaigns in tribal regions on the border.

``We have broken their communication system. We have destroyed their sanctuaries,'' Musharraf said of militants fighting in the lawless South Waziristan region.
`Now some of them are hiding in mountains. They are not in a position to move in vehicles and go to Lahore or Karachi,'' he said, referring to two major cities. ``They are unable to contact their people.''

``I'm not saying we have achieved a 100 percent success, but this is definitely a success in the war against terrorism,'' he said. Musharraf said this month's launch of U.S. government-funded advertisements on Pakistani television and radio offering multimillion-dollar rewards for bin Laden and other top terror suspects did not mean they had information about the al-Qaida leader's whereabouts.

``The publication of these ads does not mean they are here,'' Musharraf said. ``Neither they (the Americans) nor we know they (al-Qaida leaders) are here.''

Afghan Crash Bodies Returned to Families
By AMIR SHAH Associated Press Writer Thursday February 24, 2005
KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) - The first bodies retrieved from a crashed Afghan airliner were returned to their grieving relatives on Thursday, three weeks after the plane smashed into a mountain during a snowstorm. An official said the bodies of an American and a Russian have been identified.

Bad weather has slowed recovery efforts on the freezing peak near the Afghan capital where the plane hit Feb. 3, killing all 108 people on board, in the country's worst air disaster. More than 20 foreigners were among the dead.

On Thursday morning, staff at a Kabul hospital carried coffins containing the remains of four Afghan men to the ambulances to take them back to their villages.

Aiwaz Ali's 23-year-old brother, Baz Mohammed, was the first to be brought from the morgue at the military hospital. Ali and two other relatives burst into tears when they clambered into the ambulance and lifted the lid to reveal Mohammed's remains.

``How can I explain this to my mother and sister, how can I take you inside my home,'' Ali said, apparently speaking his dead brother.

Afghan and NATO teams have so far recovered 46 bodes from the site and plan to bring another seven to Kabul on Thursday, Defense Ministry spokesman Gen. Mohammed Zaher Azimi said.

Azimi said two foreign women have also been identified - one American and one Russian. The remains of the American would be handed over to relatives in Kabul later Thursday, he said.

Authorities have said nine Turks, six Americans, four Russians and three Italians were on board, though no final list of victims has been issued.

Three of the Americans were young women working on a health project. The Russians were all believed to be members of the crew.

Heavy snow and freezing temperatures have hampered access to the crash site, 10,000 feet up a snow-covered peak called Chaperi Mountain about 20 miles east of Kabul.

Italian experts have been drafted in to help identify the bodies, some of which were torn apart, while American investigators have joined the effort to find out why the Boeing 737, operated by a private Afghan airline, crashed on the flight from Herat in western Afghanistan.

Officials said Thursday that relatives, including those of most of the foreign victims, were in Kabul to help with the identification process by providing descriptions of their loved ones and examining photos of bodies, clothing and personal possessions.

Missourian’s remains found in Afghanistan
Thursday, February 24, 2005
ST. JOSEPH (AP) - The remains of a Missouri man who was among those killed when an airliner crashed in Afghanistan earlier this month have been located and identified, a spokesman for his family said.

Ryan Hogan, 24, was one of the 104 people on the Kam Air plane when it hit a snow-covered mountain near Kabul on Feb. 3. Randy Parlett, a spokesman for his family, said the remains were taken to Bagram Air Force Base in Afghanistan for positive DNA testing, then flown on Tuesday to Dover Air Force Base in Delaware for an autopsy. He said the remains are expected to be released to the family next week.

Hogan was a senior airman and ground radio maintenance technician with the 139th Airlift Wing of the Missouri Air National Guard. He was on leave and working as a civilian contractor at the time of the crash.

Almost 500 dead in bitter Afghan winter
TULAK, Afghanistan (AFP) - At least 472 people have died in Afghanistan, many of them young children killed by disease and avalanches as the country struggles through its worst winter in a decade, Afghan officials said.

In the worst hit province of Ghor in western Afghanistan, at least 192 people have died as a result of diseases, cold and avalanches, deputy provincial governor Ikramuddin Rezaie told AFP on Thursday.

"Nineteen people have died of avalanches and the rest have lost their lives mainly due to diseases such as whooping cough and flu," he said, adding that most of the fatalities were children.

US military officials delivering food Thursday to Tulak, one of the worst affected districts in Ghor province, said that local officials had confirmed 80 people dead in the district alone.

It was unclear whether the 80 deaths were included in the provincial toll of 192.

"There have been lots of deaths, it is a crisis," said Sergeant Jeremy Clawson, who was on the mission.

Providing relief to some of the worst-hit areas has been a challenge for the US military which delivered 10 tons of food to Tulak district Thursday first with two Blackhawk helicopters and then by dropping supplies from a C-130 plane.

"It was a very, very difficult mission this morning. We are operating at the very limits of our capacity with these helicopters," said Major David Johnson of the Civil Military Operations Center at Herat Provincial Reconstruction Team.

Johnson said that bad weather had prevented US forces from dropping supplies into some villages in the isolated district, which is 8,200 feet (2,484 metres) above sea level.

"Initially the problem was that we had no real intelligence coming from the ground and when we realised there was a problem then many things delayed us such as the weather and technical problems with the aircraft."

Afghanistan's Health Ministry and provincial health authorities managed to get enough medicine to four of the province's seven districts but others are without supplies, the deputy governor of Ghor said.

"Some districts are still short of medicine and we cannot supply them with medicine because those districts are cut off due to heavy snow and the roads are still blocked," Rezaie said.

Afghan Public Health Minister Sayeed Amin Fatimie confirmed Wednesday that at least 211 children under five had died in the last month-and-a-half because of the freezing conditions, and Ghor province had been hardest hit with 90 dead.

Afghan officials said late last week that at least 162 other people had been confirmed dead in avalanches, road accidents and collapsing mud-brick houses due to heavy snowfall in rural areas.

Afghanistan's North Cut Off by Snow; UN Brings Emergency Aid
Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Afghanistan's northern region is cut off by snowfalls that blocked passes and tunnels, forcing the United Nations to organize airdrops of emergency food and medical supplies.

Some land convoys have been stranded on roads for three weeks, the UN said on its Web site, citing a briefing in the capital, Kabul, yesterday by Manoel de Almeida e Silva, a spokesman for the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan.

At least 472 people have died in the worst winter in Afghanistan in a decade, Agence France-Presse reported yesterday, citing Afghan government officials. The snowfalls have caused avalanches and the cold has fostered outbreaks of diseases such as flu that have caused deaths mainly among children under five years of age, AFP said.

The U.S.-led military coalition and the international peacekeeping force led by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization are helping UN agencies and the Afghan government to deliver relief supplies, the UN said. The closure of the Shibar pass and the Salang tunnel in recent days has cut all roads leading to the north, it said.

The central province of Ghor and Zabul in the southeast have also been hit by the storms. The World Food Program has managed to bring a convoy carrying 18 metric tons of wheat, pulses and oil to the Shahrak district in Ghor, the UN said.

Snow clearing equipment is on its way to the province to try to free a six-truck convoy that has been stuck for three weeks about 60 kilometers (37 miles) from the Saghar and Tulak districts, according to the UN Web site.

Dying Children

The Afghan government said at least 211 children under five have died since the cold spell began six weeks ago, AFP reported, citing Public Health Minister Sayeed Amin Fatimie as saying yesterday. At least 192 people have died in Ghor, Ikramuddin Rezaie, deputy provincial governor, told AFP yesterday.

``Nineteen people have died in avalanches and the rest have lost their lives mainly due to diseases such as whooping cough and flu,'' Razaie said.

At least 80 people are known to have died in Tulak district alone, U.S. Army Sergeant Jeremy Clawson told AFP yesterday. The U.S. military used two Blackhawk helicopters and a C-130 plane to bring 10 tons of supplies to the area yesterday, AFP cited Major David Johnson as saying.

The U.S. military said yesterday the storms have contributed to a reduction in violence in the country, AFP reported, citing Major Steve Woolman, a U.S. military spokesman, as saying.

The U.S. has 18,000 soldiers in the country hunting fugitives from the Taliban and al-Qaeda. NATO has 8,500 soldiers in the UN- authorized International Security Assistance Force responsible for security in Kabul.

Afghanistan is preparing to hold parliamentary and local elections this year, the second stage of its move toward democracy after the Oct. 9 presidential election that was won by Hamid Karzai. The Taliban were ousted in the U.S.-led war on terrorism in December 2001.

U.N.: Afghan Election Faces Delay
Associated Press / Thu Feb 24, 3:29 AM ET
KABUL, Afghanistan - Afghanistan's parliamentary elections face a delay after the government failed to resolve issues including the voting system for its first post-Taliban legislature ahead of a key deadline, the United Nations (news - web sites) said Thursday.

The vote was slated for the Afghan month of Saur, which ends on May 21. The exact election date must be declared at least 90 days in advance — meaning the deadline passed at the end of last week.

"We are already into the 90-day period," U.N. spokesman Manoel de Almeida e Silva said at a news conference. "According to the law, the legislative elections will not be able to take place in the month of Saur."

The holdup is the latest bump in Afghanistan's fast-track to democracy laid down in U.N.-backed political accords after U.S. bombs drove out the former Taliban government in late 2001. Both presidential and parliamentary elections were originally scheduled for June 2004 but were put off because of logistical difficulties and insecurity.

President Hamid Karzai won the presidential vote in October with a landslide, but concern about a further delay to the new parliament have grown amid lagging U.N. preparations and the government's failure to take tricky decisions.

Officials are still wrestling with whether to ditch the planned voting system, which favors independents such as former warlords, to one which offers greater chances to the country's re-emerging political parties.

Government officials have suggested the vote can take place in the summer, but some diplomats are predicting a September polling day.

Bulgaria to send 30 more troops to Afghanistan
SOFIA, Feb 24 (Reuters) - NATO newcomer Bulgaria will send up to 30 more troops to Afghanistan to help beef up security at Kabul airport, its parliament said on Thursday.

The Balkan state has already deployed 65 troops in the 9,000-strong NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) operating in Kabul and northern Afghanistan.

"Bulgaria is now ready to send up to 30 military policemen to help guard the Kabul airport," said Defence Ministry spokesman Vladislav Prelezov, following the vote.

He said the troops could leave in several weeks.

The EU aspirant country will take over full control of security at Kabul airport for four months next year, and plans to send up to 350 extra soldiers for the job.

How Would Permanent U.S. Bases Impact Regional Interests?
Ron Synovitz Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty
U.S. Senator John McCain told reporters in Kabul on 22 February that America's strategic partnership with Afghanistan should include "permanent bases" for U.S. military forces. The Afghan government says it wants a long-term military, economic and political partnership with the United States. But a spokesman for the Afghan president says establishing permanent U.S. bases requires approval from the yet-to-be created Afghan parliament. McCain did not elaborate about what form 'permanent bases' might take.

Prague, 23 February (RFE/RL) -- U.S. Senator John McCain's call for permanent U.S. military bases in Afghanistan came after talks in Kabul on 22 February in which he congratulated Afghan President Hamid Karzai on progress toward democracy.

"We also want to declare our commitment, and that of the [American] people we represent, to the long-term strategic partnership that we believe must endure for many, many years," McCain said. "Not only for the good of the Afghan people but also for the good of the American people, because of the long-term security interests that we have in the region."

McCain, a leading senator in the Republican Party, specifically mentioned "permanent bases" after being asked by a reporter to clarify what he meant by a "long-term strategic" partnership: "We mean by that economic assistance, technical assistance, military partnership -- including, and this is a personal view, joint military permanent bases."

Jawed Ludin, a spokesman for Karzai, confirmed on 23 February that both Washington and Kabul are eager for their ties to evolve into a long-term strategic partnership. But Ludin says Karzai can not agree to a permanent U.S. military presence without approval from parliament. And the Afghan parliament will not be created until after elections are held later this year.

The main logistical center for the U.S.-led coalition in Afghanistan is the Bagram Air Field north of Kabul -- known by U.S. military forces as "BAF." Although commonly referred to in media reports as " Bagram Air Base," U.S. military officials say that term is a misnomer because Bagram is not considered a full-fledged "air base."

Indeed, only a small portion of Bagram's vast acreage has been put to use by the U.S.-led coalition. That's because the air field had, for years, been on the front lines between warring factions -- including the Taliban and the former Northern Alliance. That left much of the land within the massive compound littered with mines and other unexploded ordnance.

U.S. military officials have told RFE/RL that work to clear the ordnance from Bagram, which has been underway for more than a year, is aimed at eventually expanding the facility into a full-fledged regional air base.

The clearance operations also come as U.S. and NATO forces decrease their presence at Soviet-era military bases in neighboring Central Asian countries like Manas International Airport in Kyrgyzstan and Qarshi Khanabad in Uzbekistan.

Pentagon officials have describe the U.S. presence in those former Soviet republics as "open-ended." They note that Washington has never asked for permanent basing rights in those countries.

Ian Kemp, an independent defense analyst based in London, says that in addition to Bagram, McCain also is probably referring to smaller logistical centers in Afghanistan that are used by U.S.-led coalition forces. "The American strategic concept has changed significantly in recent years -- moving away from the large bases which characterized the Cold War," Kemp said. "[The Pentagon is] trying to establish a network of smaller bases where the United States has put some infrastructure in place so that these bases can be used to conduct exercises -- particularly joint training with local troops -- and then can be used for the basis of broader deployment should that become necessary. Certainly I think Senator McCain's comments about establishing [permanent] bases in Afghanistan really should be seen in this context."

Other key U.S.-run logistical centers in Afghanistan include Kandahar Air Field, or "KAF," in southern Afghanistan and the Shindand Air Field in the western province of Herat. Shindand is located about 100 kilometers from the border with Iran.

Paul Beaver, an independent defense analyst based in London, says the proximity of Shindand to Iran could give Tehran cause for concern -- particularly considering McCain's remark that permanent U.S. bases should be part of a "regional" security network. "It sits right next to Iran," Beaver said. "You could, if you were the Iranians, make a very strong case to say, 'This is America trying to hedge in Iran. They've got bases in Iraq. They have bases in Afghanistan. They have a relationship with Pakistan. They have ships in the Gulf. They are trying to encircle Iran.' I think America has to be very careful before it does that."

McCain's call for permanent bases also could be seen as a reference to the even smaller facilities for U.S.-led Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs) in eastern, southern and western Afghanistan.

The PRTs were created with the stated aim of helping Afghans with infrastructure projects such as the construction of roads, bridges, power plants, schools and water wells.

NATO-led PRTs in northern Afghanistan have limited their work strictly to such reconstruction projects.

But in areas where U.S. forces continue to battle the Taliban and Al-Qaeda, some U.S.-led PRTs serve a dual function that also includes what the U.S. military calls a "forward operations base."

That means they are sometimes used to deploy and supply military operations by U.S. Special Forces and specially-trained mountain infantry -- as well as serving as a tactical operations center and communications hub for commanders.

Getting Disarmament Back on Track
International Crisis Group 02/23/2005
OVERVIEW - The process of disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR) of forces is crucial to creating the conditions for the Karzai government to extend its authority throughout the country and for establishing the rule of law, but its ultimate fate is still very uncertain. Thus far it has helped decommission or reduce most of the officially recognised militia units in Afghanistan, and with the support of the Coalition and the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), has collected the bulk of their heavy weaponry.[1] But it has failed:

to make significant inroads in disarming the powerful Tajik-dominated units in Kabul and the Panjshir; to keep pace with the evolving nature of Afghanistan's militia structures, many of which have found a new lease on life as police forces or private militias associated with governors or district administrators; and to tackle the threat posed by unofficial militias, which are outside the mandate of the current DDR program and are maintained by most contending regional and local forces, including registered political parties. Unless the DDR program, known as the Afghanistan New Beginnings Program (ANBP) and managed by the UN Development Program (UNDP), tackles these realities, its legacy is likely to prove more cosmetic than substantive, and militia networks will remain a central and destructive element in Afghanistan's politics and economy.

The central government and its international supporters have, to some extent, been complicit in the maintenance of power by militia commanders. The U.S.-led Coalition has relied on militia commanders in its military operations against al-Qaeda and the Taliban, empowering its local allies militarily and economically and helping them to resist central government control.

For its part, that central government has, in a limited number of cases, backed military actions against high profile regional strongmen, notably former Herat governor Ismail Khan. These have earned the plaudits of much of the international community but have obscured the government's continued accommodation with mid- and lower-level commanders, often with the acquiescence of external donors. One major haven for these commanders has been the highway police, with responsibility for securing the ring road linking the country's four major cities as well as the main roads connecting Afghanistan with its neighbours.

This arrangement is fraught with risks, not least because it facilitates narcotics trafficking by commanders. A private American security company, U.S. Protection and Investigations (USPI), has been paying high wages to highway police commanders for guarding the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) supported Kabul-Kandahar road project without imposing any apparent accountability on them. The result of these relationships has been to strengthen the commanders politically, militarily, and economically, thus undermining DDR.

Political and military analysts in Afghanistan increasingly recognise that there has been a fundamental change in the commanders' priorities during the past three years. Most no longer see the need to maintain large stocks of heavy weaponry, since the Coalition presence precludes the waging of open warfare. Instead, they have opted to maintain leaner, lightly armed forces adequate to protect their political, military and economic interests, including narcotics trafficking.

These forces often fall outside the ANBP's remit because they are either technically civilian or they are unofficial militias. What is required to counter them are more far-reaching security sector reforms and enforcement of President Karzai's 2004 decree criminalising the maintenance of unofficial militias. Still tentative plans are being discussed to address the problem of these unofficial militias at long last in the third phase of the current program, which begins in March 2005 and is expected to conclude in June 2006.

Such enforcement is crucial but requires a much greater commitment to intelligence gathering and law enforcement than has been seen to date and a shift in focus from soldiers to the commanders, however minor, who are the principal agents of recruitment and mobilisation. The Coalition, too, must refrain from extending political, military and economic support to commanders who are unwilling to accept the authority of the central government. Kabul/Brussels, 23 February 2005

People of Baghlan province cricize the newly appointed Governor of Baghlan
BAGHLAN, Feb 23. (Pajhwok News Agency) – The newly appointed governor of Baghlan province, Juma Khan Hamdard was received with mixed reactions from the people, when he assumed his responsibilities on February 19th.

Although he was rumored to be appointed by Karzai's central government months ago, the people of Baghlan, mainly government workers protested against his appointment, claiming Hamdard had links with what they termed ‘terrorism’, correspondents said.

However, Mohammad Azam Sarhadi, the secretary to the governor, said the protests were masterminded by a few officials who encouraged other people to join in the protest and chant slogans against Hamdard.

Sarhadi told Pajhwok Afghan News: "It is true that he was a member of Hezb-e-Islami in the past but now he doesn't have any political persuasions against Karzai's government." Juma Khan Hamdard had served in the 8th Army Corps of Balkh province as its chief commander after the transitional government came into power.

During the Mujahideen government, Hamadard was an active commander of the outlawed Islamic Party of Afghanistan, Hezb-e-Islami led by Gulbuddin Hekmatyar during the uprising against the Russian invasion.

Although the previous governor of Baghlan province, Faqir Mohammad Mamozai has not commented on his replacement, this has not been considered a good start by many people. But Asadullah a man living in the northern capital of Baghlan province, Pul-e-Khumri city, told Pajhwok: "Now is not the time for past rivalries, and we support any governor who works for the sake of people and deals with the problems."

But Gen. Abdul Manan, a representative of the defense ministry, said at a conference in Baghlan's capital city Mazar-e-Sharif, December last year:" The army corps division number 7 and 8 are no longer functional, therefore no one can use these names for his benefit." Baghlan province has had four governors, following the collapse of the Taleban and the establishment of the transitional government.

Obligation in Afghanistan
The Star-Ledger 02/23/2005
Much has gone right in Afghanistan. The Taliban are gone, though their leaders lurk menacingly around the border areas between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Hamid Karzai, Afghanistan's leader, won decisively in an election last fall that many were sure would be hijacked by warlords and other mischief-makers. In December, Karzai appointed what looked to be a solid, ethnically balanced cabinet. Security across the country has improved.

From the perspective of living conditions, however, the outlook is less sanguine. In a report issued earlier this week, the United Nations Development Program ranked Afghanistan among the world's poorest countries. Only a handful of sub-Saharan African nations showed more dismal statistics.

"The lack of jobs, health, education, income, dignity and opportunities for participation for the Afghan people must be met ... or Afghanistan will collapse into an insecure state, a threat to its own people as well as the international community," the U.N. Development Program said in a statement issued with the report.

Afghanistan has made huge strides since 2001. More children are attending school, and the economy is expected to grow about 10 percent a year for the next decade. But the opium trade still accounts for a disproportionate share of the gross domestic product, life expectancy is a miserable 44.5 years and women and children continue to suffer from violence and other inequities.

No one ever said nation-building was easy. Afghanistan is a cautionary tale about the vastness of the undertaking, even with international help. Getting Afghanistan right is a responsibility the Bush administration will bequeath to its successors. That means helping Afghans continue to develop a nondrug economy, upgrading health care delivery and pushing for the improved status of women. If all goes well, the payoff will be a secure, prosperous country that adds to world stability. That will be a historic achievement. Its difficulty and cost, though, make it one the United States shouldn't be tempted to repeat too often.

The good luck of traumatised Afghanistan
Simon Tisdall Friday February 25, 2005 The Guardian
One woman dies from pregnancy-related causes approximately every 30 minutes. One in five children dies before the age of five from diseases that are 80% preventable.
An estimated one-third of the population suffers from anxiety, depression or post-traumatic stress. Annual per capita income is $190 (£100). Average life expectancy is 44.5 years. Its education system is now "the worst in the world".

These are just a few of the findings contained in a United Nations Development Programme report on Afghanistan published this week.

More than three years after the US and Britain declared victory in Kabul and promised to rebuild the country, it paints a disturbing portrait of "a fragile nation still at odds if no longer at war with itself that could easily slip back into chaos and abject poverty".

Not all is gloom. The report says Afghanistan's economy has expanded significantly since 2001. Nearly 55% of primary-age children are now in school.

About 2.4 million refugees have returned from Pakistan and Iran. The new constitution guarantees equal rights for women. And a democratically elected president holds office, although "factional elements" with their own militias still control much of the country.

Afghanistan's woes long predate the US war against the Taliban, stretching back to the 1979 Soviet invasion. But this present-day audit dramatically demonstrates the daunting scale of the reconstruction effort to which the west has pledged itself.

In one respect, Afghanistan is fortunate. Despite problems over merging US and Nato forces, the deployment of "provincial reconstruction teams", squandered aid and a booming heroin trade, a reasonably coherent and agreed long-term international strategy for Afghanistan does actually exist.

This is not usually the case elsewhere. For the UN's findings also indirectly illustrate a more fundamental dilemma facing other so-called transitional states such as Iraq, Palestine, East Timor, Kosovo and Haiti as well as less extreme cases like Ukraine.

While the international community's appetite for transformational nation-building, stimulated by President George Bush's crusade for global freedom, shows no sign of satiation, it habitually bites off more than it can chew.

Now the growing institutional rivalry between the US and Europe, not dispelled by this week's Brussels summitry, is in danger of further undermining collective efforts.
The minimalist Nato agreement on military and police training in Iraq, with France grudgingly agreeing to contribute one mid-level headquarters officer, gave the lie to claims that Euro-Atlantic war wounds have healed. Five leading EU countries still refuse point blank to let their soldiers set foot in Iraq.

The EU decision to launch a civilian training mission in Baghdad only served as a reminder of Europe's rising ambition to act as an independent international player.

Europe's use of trade incentives with Iran and Syria, on which the US has imposed trade sanctions, and its attempts to engage North Korea also exemplify this diverging diplomatic and philosophical approach.

It is these structural problems that Gerhard Schröder addressed in his recent speech on facilitating the Euro-Atlantic dialogue. The German chancellor's call for "a strong European pillar" with equal responsibilities was interpreted as widening the transatlantic divide.

In fact his speech was a timely if clumsy attempt to close the gap by building more coherent joint platforms for managing the growing list of nation-building and aid projects which, if Mr Bush has his way, could one day include Zimbabwe, Sudan, North Korea, Burma and Belarus.

The US and Europe must work together more effectively, Mr Schröder said. "We should focus with determination on adapting our cooperation structures to changed conditions and challenges.

"We need a strong multilateral system which provides a reliable framework for solidarity and guarantees good global governance." If that upset existing hierarchies such as Nato, he seemed to say, well, tough.

His reform proposals have been met with shrugs in Britain and the US, although not in France. But Mr Schröder put his finger on a problem that will have to be addressed sooner or later. The children of Afghanistan would say sooner.

AFGHANISTAN: Women face misery in Nuristan
24 Feb 2005 15:11:16 GMT
NURISTAN, 24 February (IRIN) - The wooden hut of Zulaikha, a 45-year-old midwife, remains the only ray of hope for destitute women in the Nuristan valley, in northeastern Nuristan province. Dozens of women gather around Zulaikha, many of them after travelling from snow-capped mountains after a day's journey by foot.

While some come for treatment, others have been severely beaten by their husbands or forced to leave their homes and children. Many women claim that their husbands have sent them back to their parents after coming down with tuberculosis (TB), the province's chief health concern, or that they had become weak as a result of poor nourishment.

"My husband beat me and kicked me out after my sickness [TB] became serious," Bibi Hawa, a 30-year-old housewife, told IRIN, after speaking with Zulaikha, the only literate woman and health worker in Kamdish and Bargmatal districts, with a population of over 100,000.

"He threw me out to take revenge on my father who had received 30 cows as a dowry for my wedding," she exclaimed.

Like many rural Afghan areas, ultra conservatism and cultural complexities have proven the tools of violence against women, but here the problem has been worse. In addition to maltreatment, women traditionally have been obliged to engage in physical labour outside the home, including agriculture and carrying heavy loads of firewood on their shoulders from nearby mountains.

Meanwhile, Zulaikha, who graduated from high school and later attended a midwifery-training course in Pakistan, is struggling to cope in male-dominated Nuristan. She and two male TB technicians are the only health workers serving the province's two heavily populated and troubled border districts.

Nuristan has one of the highest rates of maternal and child mortality in the country due to a lack of healthcare centres, as well as inaccessibility to many parts of the mountainous valley. The nearest health clinic is in the town of Chitral, two days walk across the border in Pakistan.

There isn't a single doctor in the province, according to Zulaikha. She regularly walks for hours to visit patients and often has to deliver babies and cope with birthing problems under the most primitive of conditions.

"Unfortunately, often mothers die before I can reach them. Because of the lack of roads I have to walk or go by horse," she said.

"Here women have to work more than a human being's capacity," she claimed, adding that in addition to TB, many women suffered from back and leg problems due to physical labour.

"No one uses horses or donkeys. Instead they use women as a means of carrying things," she said, adding that women even had to plough the hard mountains for cultivation. "Unfortunately, despite all the work they are doing, women are not treated as human beings."

Most of the problems originated from heavy bride-prices paid to parents for their daughters, the mother-of-four maintained. "To marry a girl you have to give up to 40 cows to your in-laws," she said, adding that this had often created tension between husbands and wives after the marriage. "Many women are sent to their father's home for treatment by angry husbands," she added.

Meanwhile, a lack of government control in the area has meant that conservative religious leaders still hold sway in most parts of Nuristan.

In addition to tradition, illiteracy and ultra conservative elements were also having an effect. "The illiterate men are influenced by religious extremists here and they don't want us to know our rights," the midwife noted.

She said local religious extremists closed her health and social education training last year. "They said I was influencing women against them and closed my centre," she said.

Zulaikha said women in Nuristan were suffering and neither the government nor aid agencies could intervene. "In a situation where there is no aid agency or government properly functioning here, one can imagine that the first victim in a lawless area is a woman," she explained.

Pamirs adapt to life without Russia
By Ian MacWilliam - BBC News, Tajikistan - Tuesday, 22 February, 2005
The Pamir mountains in the Central Asian republic of Tajikistan were once the remotest frontier of the Russian Empire. But the last Russian forces left this region on the northern borders of Afghanistan in December, and the inhabitants have been facing their first winter without any Russian assistance for the first time in more than a century.

The Pamirs have been busy building new ties with the outside world, but many people still regret the end of the Russian presence, and fear it could lead to an influx of illegal drugs from Afghanistan. The Pamirs lie at the mountainous heart of Asia where four great ranges meet like the spokes of a wheel - the Himalayas, Karakorams, Hindu Kush and Tien Shan.

Three peaks top 7000 metres (23,000 feet) and much of the region is a high-altitude plateau at nearly 4000 metres (13,100 feet), where outsiders can find breathing difficult. The narrow River Panj, or Oxus, flows through a precipitous gorge, forming the border between Tajikistan and Afghanistan.

Tajikistan has been independent since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, but Moscow had remained in charge of the border troops here. Moscow and other regional governments still fear the spread of narcotics, weapons and extremist Islam from chaotic Afghanistan just across the river. The inhabitants on both sides of the river are Tajiks, but the Russian presence in Tajikistan has ensured a very different history over the past century.

On the Tajikistan side there are roads and electricity. On the Afghan side there are donkey tracks, and few lights disturb the blackness of the long winter nights. Drugs are a major concern here. Much of the Afghan heroin and opium which reaches Europe is now smuggled through Central Asia.

"The Afghans were afraid of the Russians," said Maram Azimmamadov, director of Volunteer, an organisation working with drug addicts in the Pamiri capital, Khorog.

"They're not afraid of the Tajik guards, and it's very easy to cross the river, especially in winter, so we're expecting an increase in the flow of drugs through here." The Russian border guards themselves however were often accused of smuggling large quantities of drugs straight into Russia on military flights from Tajikistan.

Many local Tajiks worked as guards for the Russian-led force. They are now paid less than half of what they were paid under the Russians. Other people in Khorog say the border force will be less efficient now that it is run by the Tajiks only.

Two Tajik women selling cigarettes and snacks by the roadside outside the border force base in Khorog expressed a common view. "The Russian officers would often help us - they'd give us some coal for heating when it was very cold, or they'd give us jobs on the base," said one woman. "But the Tajiks don't do that. They don't employ so many local people and if they give us anything they want to be paid," she said.

Strategic position - Russian geographers, soldiers and spies first began exploring the Pamirs in the second half of the 19th century, travelling for weeks across the bleak mountain wilderness from the Ferghana valley in modern Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan.

In the 1890s, at the height of the Great Game, when Russia and British India were vying for influence in the region, Moscow established military garrisons at Murghab, Ishkashim and Khorog. One of the most poignant reminders of that adventurous era still stands in the museum in Khorog.

"This was the only piano in the Pamir," said Alvo Karamshoyeva, the museum's senior guide. "The commander of the Russian garrison had it brought here in 1914 so his daughter could play. Ten soldiers spent two months carrying it over the mountains from Osh."

A plate fixed to the Becker piano, made in Germany in 1875, says it was bought from MK Grubesh of Moscow, suppliers to the Imperial Moscow Conservatory. For many years, songs played on this piano on the edge of Afghanistan would remind the Russians of their homes far away across many hundreds of miles of mountains, desert and steppe.

But while ties with Russia are weakening, the Pamir region is surprisingly well connected to the outside world because of another patron. Most Pamiris are Ismaili Muslims, whose spiritual leader is the Aga Khan. From his European base, in France, Switzerland and Britain, the Aga Khan has been working through his network of aid organisations to improve the Pamir region's local economy, making it more self-sufficient.

Filling the gap - In the grim years immediately after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the abrupt end of subsidies from Moscow, many Pamiris faced starvation. The Aga Khan Development Network (AKDN) arranged emergency food supplies then, particularly in the difficult winter months. "The Aga Khan saved our lives," many people will tell you in Khorog.

The AKDN has been working to make agricultural improvements since then, and the region now produces 80% of its own food requirements, said Shiraz Abdulayev, of the AKDN in Khorog.

Another long-term goal is to improve regional trade, rebuilding transport links with Afghanistan, China and Pakistan which were severed by seven decades of Soviet rule. The AKDN has already built two new bridges across the Panj river to Afghanistan.

"A group of Afghan businessmen came across the new bridge at Khorog recently to study the market here," said Mr Abdulayev, "and last summer the first tourists used it to cross to and from Afghanistan."

A new road has also been opened to western China recently, by which local traders now bring Chinese goods into Tajikistan, and a road is planned to northern Pakistan across Afghanistan's narrow Wakhan corridor.

Many local people hope that tourism might eventually make an important contribution to the local economy. With some of Asia's most remote and spectacular mountain scenery, the Pamir could attract adventurous Western tourists if transport ties were improved.

In Murghab, in the high-altitude plateau of the eastern Pamir, a network of ecotourism guesthouses has been set up by the French aid organisation ACTED (Agency for Technical Co-operation and Development). Visitors can stay in houses with local families in houses, or in summer in yurts. The cost is reasonable for most foreigners, but the income is a big help to local residents.

"Thank goodness for the foreign tourists who come here," said Yrys, a mother of three who rents two rooms to visitors in Murghab. "I had 70 guests last year. There are no other jobs here so that money makes all the difference."

As the Pamir region slowly adapts to the realities of the post-Soviet economy, the challenges of its harsh environment have brought many difficulties. But there is now hope that closer integration with the world will ultimately make life easier on the Roof of the World.

Northern Afghanistan offers official driving lessons for women
By Khalida Khursand
HERAT, Feb. 23, (Pajhwok Afghan News) -- Women in northern Herat province have been offered official driving lessons for the first time in Afghan history, provincial officials said.

The head of the Traffic division on Herat, Colonel Ghulam Hazrat Momand said this course is officially conducted by the traffic division and aims to develop and support women’s rights. It is anticipated that twenty women between the ages of 18 and 40 will embark on this course for the first time in their lives.

The need for a driving school to be established for women was instigated by the Youth and children’s development program (YDCP), that started teaching women to drive secretly, about a year ago. But the course was banned by the former governor of Herat, Ishmail Khan after a month of starting. The driving course which will have practical and theoretical part,is to be completed in twelve days.

Momand said most of the women participating on the course, already have some experience of driving a car, so they should be able to get through the practical and theoretical parts of the exams after some practice on the streets. The women will be awarded a drivers licence on successful completion of both the theory paper and practical elements of the course.

Colonel Ghulam Hazrat Momand speaking to Pajhwok Afghan News said: "Driving is a requirement for women and this need should be resolved." Many women in the province have welcomed this course.

One of the learners, thirty-five year-old, Rahima said:" It is two years since my husband moved to the capital Kabul and I have a problem with walking, but after the completion of this course my problem will be finished."

Rahima who is very keen to learn to drive and practices in her husbands car during her spare time. The permission for women to drive has also created an opening for students of further education.
Twenty-four year-old medical student Sorria from Herat University said: “We are fed-up of paying taxi fares and we don’t feel safe to walk in the road.” however some of the male population from Herat province do not approve of allowing women to drive.

Forty-year old Muhammad Karim, a school teacher from Herat says: “It is not appropriate for women and girls to learn to drive and teaching them to drive isn’t a priority. Our city is still not ready to accept this rather modern phenomenon.

Thirty-year old, Muhammad Asif, an official in the communication department of Herat province said: "Driving was a lost right for women which has to be regained." The streets of Herat may soon be buzzing with female drivers, when the first batches of women pass their test.

India world's largest nation by 2030, UN says
Friday February 25, 11:13 AM AFP
India will overtake China as the world's most populous nation by 2030, five years earlier than had been expected, according to a new UN study.

The UN's latest global population report predicted that India, at 1.103 billion people this year, would reach 1.593 billion by 2050, while China will go from 1.316 billion to 1.392 billion.

But India will actually surpass China as early as 2030 -- the last such report had predicted in 2035 -- according to the latest available data about birth rates in the two countries, UN demographer Cheryl Sawyer said.

"Today, India's fertility rate is over three children per woman while China's is about 1.7," Sawyer told AFP.

"That's what's going to be causing the (earlier) crossover," she said. "The data from China indicate that fertility is a bit lower than we had previously thought."

The report also forecast that world population will hit 9.1 billion by 2050, a jump of 2.6 billion people -- with India and Pakistan seeing the biggest increases.

The growth in India, Pakistan and seven other nations -- Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Bangladesh, Uganda, the United States, Ethiopia and China -- should account for half the total increase, it said.

But the data otherwise show that almost all of the growth will come in developing nations, and the overall increase is "inevitable" even though fertility rates in the developed world continue to plummet, the report said.

Indeed, in 15 nations -- mostly southern and eastern Europe -- the birth rate has fallen below 1.3 children per woman, a level it said was "unprecedented in human history."

An exception is the United States, where the expected increase is mainly due to the continuing arrival of immigrants, who tend to have more children in the first generation.

On the other hand, population is expected to triple in Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Chad, Congo, the DRC, East Timor, Guinea Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Niger and Uganda.

The projections depend largely on future birth rates, and assume a decline in fertility from 2.6 children per woman now to slightly more than two children by 2050.

If fertility rates were half a child below that, world population would still grow to 7.7 billion by 2050; at half a child more per woman, the human race would reach 10.6 billion by then.

Nevertheless, the general trend toward lower birth rates combined with longer life expectancy means that the world population will be getting older, the study said.

Those more than 80 years old are believed to number around 86 million now. That figure will soar to 394 million by mid-century, it said.