Afghanistan News December 2, 2005

December 2, 2005

Clashes Close Key Afghan Border Crossing
Fri Dec 2, 6:06 AM ET AP
KANDAHAR, Afghanistan - A key border crossing was closed Friday after a clash between Afghan and Pakistani forces, an Afghan police official said.

At least a dozen Afghan border security officers fought with 15-20 Pakistani troops on Thursday at the border in the southern Afghan town of Spinboldak, district police chief Haji Abdul Wasai said.

Clubs were used, and three of the Afghans were hurt, he said.

The conflict appeared to be linked to a group of people crossing into Afghanistan, but its cause was unclear, Wasai said.

Afghan officials were negotiating Friday with two representatives from Pakistan, but the border remained closed, he said.

An October bomb blast near the border gate in Spinboldak, in the Kandahar province, killed three people and wounded 20. Local officials blamed the explosion on Taliban militants who have stepped up attacks this year that often Afghan and U.S.-led coalition forces.

PAKISTAN: Big Afghan refugee camp to close
01 Dec 2005 19:37:58 GMT
ISLAMABAD, 1 December (IRIN) - Pakistani authorities are soon to close the large, well-established Jalozai Afghan refugee camp, home to 120,000 people and located in the Nowshera district of Pakistan's North West Frontier Province (NWFP), some 140 km northwest of the Pakistani capital, Islamabad.

"On account of security concerns the camp has only been identified for closure. However, the formal closure will be announced only after consultation with the government of Afghanistan and the UN refugee agency [the office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR)]," Dr Imran Zeb, director of the Commissionerate for Afghan Refugees (CAR), a state body dealing with Afghan refugees, said in Islamabad on Thursday.

Of about 200 refugee facilities meant for Afghans fleeing the Soviet invasion of 1979 and, later, internal strife inside Afghanistan, Pakistan now has only around 70 camps housing over 1 million refugees, mainly administered by UNHCR.

Including Jalozai, there are currently four Afghan refugee camps facing closure for what Islamabad refers to as "security concerns".

Two of the camps are located in the southwestern province of Balochistan, home to 63,000 Afghans. The third is in NWFP, located in the provincial capital of Peshawar and housing 50,000 refugees.

Since 2003, the closure of Afghan refugee camps in Pakistan has been proceeding alongside the repatriation operation that began in March 2002.

Under the voluntary repatriation assistance programme of the UNHCR started in 2002, over 2.7 million Afghans have returned so far from Pakistan.

Nearly 1.6 million repatriated in 2002, followed by some 340,000 in 2003 and more than 380,000 in 2004. This programme is governed by a tripartite agreement between Kabul, Islamabad and UNHCR that runs until December 2006.

According to a comprehensive census of Afghans living in Pakistan carried out in March 2005, over 3 million Afghan nationals have been living in different parts of the country for over a quarter of a century. Many do not want to return to Afghanistan, citing insecurity, lack of jobs and infrastructure for their reluctance to leave their adopted country.

UK troops face new Afghan challenge
Wednesday, 30 November 2005 BBC News
A small and so far peaceful British invasion has begun in this remote corner of Afghanistan

Preparations are in full swing for an ambitious UK military deployment next spring to what is the country's number one drugs producing region.

Several thousand soldiers and civilian advisers may end up being sent here in a plan aimed at strengthening President Hamid Karzai's government in this largely lawless province.

Some additional troops will come from other European countries.

Second coming

The hope is it will also revive failing British-led efforts to combat the illegal drugs trade in Afghanistan - the source for most of the world's supply of opium, which is used to make heroin.

Officially, the line in London is that no final decisions have been taken. On the ground though, the BBC was told the deployment is going ahead.

The small US force currently in the province has been told that the UK will take over by the end of March.

The American base on the edge of Lashkar Gar, the capital of Helmand province, is known as a 'provincial reconstruction team'. It will become the British headquarters.

Growing numbers of British troops have been arriving, setting up communications links and drawing up plans for other bases.

Last weekend, the commander of the paratroop-led unit which will form the core of the force -16 Air Assault Brigade - flew in to inspect progress.

The last time a large British force came to this region of Afghanistan was in colonial times, in the 19th century.

But it ended in defeat for the British, at the 1880 battle of Maiwand in nearby Kandahar province.

Few people in Helmand are aware yet of the impending British influx.

But most of those the BBC spoke said they will be welcome if they can improve life here.

"We need security, that's the first thing," said Haji Nasruddin, a shoe-seller in the main bazaar.

This time, British commanders will have another weapon to call on - the focus group.

Among the recent arrivals in Lashkar Gar has been a Ministry of Defence polling team assessing local attitudes and priorities.

Training

When the BBC arrived at the base though, all the British personnel there were told not to talk about what was happening - on the orders they said of their political masters.

But from the activity on the ground and from talking to Afghan and international officials, the outlines of the plan are emerging.

Although the paratroopers will give the British force a serious punch, much of the emphasis will be on developing the capacity of the local Afghan government and security forces.

This will be key to tackling the drugs trade in the long term, officials say.

Troops at another base - known as Camp Ashton - will be given the task of training a brigade of 3,000 soldiers for the emerging Afghan National Army.

Police trainers will be working with Helmand's shaky 1,800-strong force.

Low salaries mean police are easily bribed by drugs traffickers.

Government officials here admit many of their own are involved in the drugs trade too.

Key issue

One dilemma for the British will be how closely to work with a local authority that many here regard as part of the problem.

Another key issue will be how aggressively soldiers pursue drugs traffickers - something that could well result in much more violence.

For the past four years, the US-led coalition and the Nato force in Afghanistan have avoided such confrontations as a matter of policy.

For the US, its war on terror against the Taleban and al Qaeda has taken priority. Nato has been focussed on its peacekeeping role.

But there's pressure for the British to get tougher, including from Helmand's governor Sher Mohammed Akhunzada.

Here a war on drugs helps the war on terror he argues: "All the money for the Taleban comes from the drugs traffic."

The governor also told the BBC he wants British troops to patrol Helmand's open desert border with Pakistan.

There is currently no Afghan government presence there at all.

US troops don't go there either - one reason being that their vehicles often get stuck in the soft sands.

With all it's taking on in Helmand, the British military will have to be careful not to get bogged down too.

Deadly attacks in Afghanistan spur fears of foreign support
Taliban strikes mimic tactics by Iraqi rebels
By Griff Witte, Washington Post December 1, 2005
KABUL, Afghanistan -- An onslaught of grisly and sophisticated attacks since parliamentary elections in September has left Afghan and international officials concerned that Taliban guerrillas are obtaining support from abroad to carry out strikes that increasingly mimic insurgent tactics in Iraq.

The recent attacks -- including at least nine suicide bombings -- have shown unusual levels of coordination, technological knowledge, and blood lust, according to officials. Although military forces and facilities have been the most common targets, religious leaders, judges, police officers, and foreign reconstruction workers have also fallen prey to the violence.

The success of the September vote, which was relatively peaceful despite Taliban threats of sabotage, initially raised hopes that the insurgency was losing strength. But after two of the bloodiest months since US forces entered Kabul in 2001, officials now say the Taliban might have been using that time to marshal foreign support and plot new ways to undermine the Western-backed government.

The attacks have been particularly noteworthy for their use of suicide bombers. Some have struck in waves, with one explosive-laden car following the next in an effort to maximize casualties. That sort of attack has been a hallmark of Al Qaeda and a regular occurrence in Iraq. But in Afghanistan, suicide attacks of any kind have been relatively rare, despite a quarter-century of warfare.

Attackers have also shown a growing appetite for strikes in cities, particularly Kabul, setting residents' nerves on edge and leading them to take new security precautions at work, home, and social events.

At a wedding Saturday, armed Afghan police officers meticulously searched guests before they were allowed to enter -- a practice unknown here until recent months. ''Maybe somebody will bring a bomb and explode it at the wedding," said Nasrullah, a guest in his fifties who, like many Afghans, uses only one name. ''It used to be that we could trust people. But right now, we cannot trust."

Colonel Jim Yonts, spokesman for the US military in Afghanistan, said the Taliban is resorting to suicide attacks and remote-controlled bombings in urban areas ''out of desperation" as it continues to lose ground -- and men -- to international forces in the mountains and other rural areas. ''They only lose one person in a suicide attack, not 10 or 15," as they would in battle, he said.

But Yonts acknowledged ''grave concern" among US officials over the idea that the Taliban might be taking a page from Iraqi insurgents' playbook by attacking with explosives in cities.

Afghan officials said the recent attacks demonstrate that the Taliban fighters are continuing to receive considerable outside assistance, such as advanced explosives and computerized timing devices used to build more devastating bombs.

In the past two weeks, Afghanistan has experienced near-daily attacks.

The level of violence in Afghanistan is still nowhere near that in Iraq. The insurgency here is generally considered to have far less public support and to be less capable of pulling off attacks that cause mass casualties. Reconstruction projects are ongoing in most parts of the country, and Westerners can move freely in many areas with little fear of violence.

''Compared to Iraq, where the suicide bomber is such a cheap commodity they could throw them at almost any target, that's not where we are here," said US Ambassador Ronald Neumann, noting that the bombers have been a mix of Afghans and foreigners.

Neumann said he did not believe the stepped-up attacks were a sign of widening Taliban support, but rather represented ''a change in tactics and in targets, which makes the violence more evident."

Afghanistan facing trend of re-expatriationby Xu Qun
KABUL, Dec 2, 2005 (Xinhua via COMTEX) -- "I have come back to Afghanistan for about 3 years, but I still can't find a suitable job. Maybe I shall go back to Iran before I spend all the money I have earned," the 35-year-old Maazullah said.

Maazullah went to Iran in 1990 in order to escape the forced military service of the communist government. He stayed in Iran for 13 years and became a mason. After the collapse of Taliban in late 2001, more and more people returned to Afghanistan, and Maazullah decided to become one of them.

"Before I came back, I heard a lot about countless job opportunities in Afghanistan, but after I returned to my hometown in Faryab in 2003, I found it's different from I heard and imagined," Maazullah said.

He noted, "The reconstruction work is under way in my country, mainly in big cities, and heading for a big city for a job opportunity will cost greatly."

Maazullah got married after returned home and has not yet found any job. He is thinking about going back to Iran after using up all the money he had earned in that country.

Lack of housing and job opportunity force some Afghan returnees to leave the country once more, according to a spokesperson of Ministry of Refugees and Repatriation.

"Following the main trend of Afghan citizens returning home from other countries, some are leaving and plan to leave the country as a result of the current unstable situation and economic and social reasons," Mohammad Hafiz Nadeem told Xinhua.

He added, "Although Taliban collapsed four years ago, there are still many militants and the remained landmines threatening social security. Afghanistan still faces the problem of providing enough houses and job opportunities for its people. The lack of educational facilities and health care institutions in some remote areas also brings the backward direction or delay the return time of the returnees."

According to a research report, since the collapse of Taliban in late 2001, about 4.35 million returnees have come back to Afghanistan. Included were more than 2 million from Pakistan and about 2 million from Iran.

The process goes on well under the trilateral agreement signed by Afghanistan, UNHCR (UN High Commissioner for Refugees) and the host countries for refugees in which the principle of gradualism and consciousness must be followed.

"During the returning process, UNHCR will provide the transportation and assistance, the host countries will offer returnees with convenient facilities, and Afghan government is responsible for sending refugees back home, and providing them with houses and jobs," Nadeem said.

The Ministry of Refugees and Repatriation has representatives in each province to take charge of the affairs of refugees. So far the ministry has provided 140,000 houses for returnees under the shelter program. There is a five-year plan implemented from the beginning of this year in which 50,000 pieces of land will be distributed to homeless returnees. Till now 30,000 pieces of land were distributed at the comparatively low price.

In Takhar province Wednesday, a clash between local persons and police led to two local persons killed, six including two police injured. The reason for the clash was that the government wanted to build a refugees town in the area, where local people were living.

The Ministry of Refugees and Repatriation announced Thursday that the government will provide houses for about 800 families living in the camps of the city.

"We have built 38 refugee towns in some 24 provinces, but it's still far from enough. We have applied for some development budget for next year and hope to settle more problems for returnees," Nadeem said.

AFGHANISTAN: Survey calls for end to female carpet weavers' misery
01 Dec 2005 19:38:16 GMT
KABUL, 1 December (IRIN) - Thousands of women and girls who toil in appalling conditions to make Afghan carpets for export are treated as unpaid slaves and suffer from routine exhaustion, long hours and health problems, according to a survey conducted by a local rights body released on Thursday.

The world famous handmade carpets, woven mainly in northern and central Afghanistan, are one of the poverty-stricken country's few exports and can fetch thousands of dollars abroad. According to the Ministry of Commerce, there are around 1 million small carpet workshops across the country, in which around 6 million people, mainly women and children, are employed.

The Rabia Balkhi Advocacy and Skill building Agency (RASA) conducted the survey over seven months in three northern provinces: Balkh; Kunduz; and Jawzjan, and spoke to more than 300 weavers.

"Most of the weavers spend up to 18 hours a day working in poor conditions, with many becoming ill and taking opium to relieve their pain," Nilofar Sayar, regional director of RASA, said. Afghanistan's 2003 constitution limits the normal working day to eight hours.

Many ethnic Uzbek and Turkmen women in warlord-dominated northern Afghanistan work in small home-based "factories" to make the country's famous carpets, known for their quality, intricate designs and use of natural dyes.

According to the survey, 113 out of the 300 interviewers had started weaving the carpets below the age of 10. Eight-year-old Moursal said she had been weaving carpets in her home in the Afghan capital Kabul, since she was six. "Weaving has destroyed the vision of my eyes. I am suffering from chest pain too," Moursal complained.

While calling on the government to enforce standards on maximum working hours, Sayar said, "They're the unpaid slaves of their male relatives," adding many of the women weaving carpets do not know the value of the carpets they make.

"The weavers suffer from eye and leg problems. They suffer from tuberculosis," she said, adding they should be provided with health clinics and schools.

Illiteracy was another problem among the women interviewed by RASA. Some 265 out of 300 were illiterate. Only 35 of them had had primary education, according to the survey.

Who cut and run in Afghanistan?
Sarasota Herald-Tribune, FL
Everyone agrees that the quality and bravery of our troops are unquestionable. However, our nation is divided about the way the war has been prosecuted, i.e., the number of troops needed and the kind of equipment they require. Above all, there are questions about the manner in which the White House advocated a pre-emptive strike based upon faulty intelligence.

The focus is on Iraq, but why did we leave Afghanistan so abruptly? A bumper crop of poppies has produce 87 percent of the world's heroine. Is it not true that some of those proceeds from drug trafficking support the terrorists in Iraq?

Why didn't we finish off the Taliban and hold our ground until that country's government was firmly secured? We pulled out troops and equipment a year in advance of the pre-emptive strike on Iraq.

Did we cut and run to go after a more valuable target with extensive oil resources?

Donald Rumsfeld told us there were just a few dead-enders causing the problems. Didn't he realize there are 400 million Arabs in the region? Even if 98.5 percent of them supported our presence in Iraq, that leaves 1.5 percent or 6 million dead-enders to contend with. Could there be a few hundred thousand combatants among them willing to commit suicide? We only have 150,000 troops on the ground. The numbers and the time are not in our favor.

Our troops are close to completing their mission. They have destroyed Saddam Hussein's army and captured him, established a government, killed several thousand combatants and trained many Iraqis to defend their country. John Murtha, a decorated veteran, wants an exit plan for their safe return. If the Bush administration wants to accuse him of cutting and running, they have the wrong target.
Jim J. Lawless

Afghanistan: Blood on the tracks
Asia Times Online 11/30/05 By Kanchan Lakshman
Ramankutty Maniyappan, a 36-year-old from the southern Indian state of Kerala and an employee of the Indian Border Roads Organization (BRO), was abducted November 19. His beheaded body was found four days later on a road between Zaranj, the capital of the Nimroz province, and an area called Ghor Ghori. Following his abduction, Taliban spokesman Qari Yusuf Ahmadi, had claimed that the group had given the BRO an ultimatum to leave Afghanistan within 48 hours, failing which they would behead Maniyappan. Maniyappan was among an estimated 300 Indians working on the strategic 218-kilometer road in southwestern Afghanistan, which will link the main Kandahar-Herat highway to the Iran border. The US$84 million project, funded and executed by India, will provide Afghanistan a shorter route to the sea via the Iranian port of Chabahar than is currently available through Pakistan.

Iran, India and Afghanistan had signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) in January 2003, to improve Afghanistan's access to the coast. Under this agreement, Iran is building a new transit route to connect Milak in the southeast of the country to Zaranj in Afghanistan, and has already completed an important bridge over the Helmand River.

On its part, India is building a new road connecting Zaranj to Delaram, which is on the main Herat-Kandahar road. These projects will shorten the transit distance between Chabahar and Delaram by more than 600 kilometers. According to the MoU, Afghan goods will have duty-free access to the Iranian port and will have to pay not more than what is applied to Iranian traders for using its territory for transit purposes.

India is to enjoy similar benefits as Afghanistan at Chabahar port and for transit. Furthermore, India and Iran have also agreed to build a railroad from Chabahar to the Iranian central railway station, thus creating a link to the Karachi-Tehran railway line, which goes further westwards. While Afghanistan gains access to realize its trade potential, India will be able to prevail over hurdles posed by Pakistan in refusing to allow the transit of Indian goods en route to Afghanistan.

The project, consequently, has direct ramifications for three countries, and impacts on Pakistan by default. Afghanistan, the host country that is still a long way away from recovery, continues as a playground for competing foreign policy agendas and a "new great game" is evidently being played out on its soil.

Apart from the BRO-executed project, some 2,000 Indians are involved in a diverse array of reconstruction projects, prominently including the building of a 220 KV double circuit transmission line from Pul-e-Khumri in eastern Afghanistan to Kabul ($111 million); a sub-station at Kabul; the reconstruction of the Salma dam power project in Herat province ($80 million) being executed by the Water and Power Consultancy Services (India) Ltd.

India is also assisting in the reconstruction of the Habibia school, which boasts alumni such as Afghan President Hamid Karzai and former king, Zahir Shah. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh inaugurated the school during his visit to Kabul in August. India has pledged $550 million to the reconstruction of Afghanistan in sectors that include basic infrastructure, health, education, agriculture, industry, telecommunication, information and broadcasting.

The Maniyappan incident is not the first of its kind involving the abduction of an Indian in Afghanistan by the Taliban. In 2003, two Indians, Murali and Varada Rao, working for a private construction company, were abducted in Zabul province and subsequently released after 19 days in captivity.

The Taliban detests India's proximity with the Karzai regime and leaders of the erstwhile Northern Alliance. On November 19, the day Maniyappan was abducted, India had announced that it was awarding the prestigious Indira Gandhi Peace Prize for 2005 to Karzai, a gesture intended to convey India's commitment to Afghanistan. Indian firms involved in the reconstruction effort, including the Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd, C&C Constructions and WAPCOS, have, despite the Maniyappan murder, ruled out any scaling down of activity in Afghanistan.

These projects, however, do not affect Pakistani ambitions to the degree that the building of the Zaranj-Delaram road would. Although India's External Affairs Ministry, in a statement from New Delhi, stated that "The Taliban and its backers bear the responsibility for the consequences of this outrageous act", an unnamed Afghan government official was more unqualified in his confirmation of the Pakistani role in the killing of the BRO worker: "It was not to Pakistan's liking that India was helping to construct this road [the Zaranj-Delaram highway]. Obviously, they would try to disrupt the project." Subsequently, on November 27, India's National Security Adviser, M K Narayanan also asserted that Pakistan had a role in Maniyappan's killing, and had conspired with the Taliban to engineer this "ill-motivated act".

Afghanistan, increasingly the "forgotten frontier" of the "war on terror", has witnessed a substantial increase in violence during 2005, claiming at least 1,500 lives, including 84 American troops, the highest toll since 2001. Last year, the death toll was about 850.

Aid workers are an obvious target in Afghanistan. According to the Afghanistan non-governmental organization (NGO) Safety Organization, 30 people involved in aid projects have died in 2005, as compared to 24 the previous year. Worse, three suicide attacks in November indicated a shift towards "Iraq-style tactics" by the Taliban.

Close to nine such attacks have taken place nationwide since September 28, when a uniformed man on a motorcycle detonated a bomb outside an Afghan Army Training Center, killing nine persons. Taliban spokesman Qari Yousuf Ahmadi confirmed such a shift in strategy: "It is true that we have started a series of suicide attacks mainly against foreign troops who have invaded Afghanistan." Expressing surprise at the turn of events, a senior UN official said, "We never imagined we would still be talking about a Taliban insurgency four years on."

The US, which has conferred "frontline state" eminence on Islamabad, has a strange take on the Pakistani strategy. The Report on the Status of the 9/11 Commission Recommendations, published by the 9/11 Public Discourse Project, unequivocally stated:

... challenges facing the country [Afghanistan] are still formidable: Taliban and other extremist forces stepped up attacks against the Karzai government in spring and summer of 2005, and attacks continue; new fighters are being drawn from Pakistan. More than sixty US military personnel have died in combat in 2005 and the insurgency is not going away. Karzai has not extended his authority throughout the entire country.

[President General Pervez] Musharraf does not appear to have lived up to his promises to regulate the madrassas [seminaries] properly or close down all those that are known to have links to extremist groups. Taliban forces still pass freely across the Pakistan-Afghanistan border and operate in Pakistani tribal areas. Terrorists from Pakistan carry out operations in Kashmir ...

At the other end, there are reports that Americans are attempting, assisted, not surprisingly, by Pakistan, to accommodate the Taliban leadership of Mullah Omar within the power structure in Afghanistan. Islamabad, on its part, is interested in ensuring the Taliban's representation in the future governance of Afghanistan in order to reframe its quest for "strategic depth".

Afghanistan has consistently expressed concern over Islamabad's continuing attempts to interfere in and regain control over events in the country. The head of Afghanistan's reconciliation commission, Sibghatullah Mojaddedi, told reporters in Kabul on November 12:

We have not seen any direct military interference except from our Pakistani brothers ... I don't know why they have not stopped their inhumane interference in Afghanistan so far ... Pakistan or its ISI [Inter-Services Intelligence] have given them [militants] plans to implement in Afghanistan, have provided them with weapons and facilities and warned them if they do not do it [execute terrorist operations in Afghanistan] they will be handed over to Americans as al-Qaeda activists.

Back in Pakistan, Maulana Sami-ul-Haq, a stalwart of the Islamist movement and one of the most prominent patrons of the Taliban, confirmed in an interview to Adnkronos International on November 24 that it was "a fact that the Taliban are Afghan nationals and they are still studying in Pakistani madrassas".

And for the seminaries that spawn the Taliban it is "business as usual". Musharraf's campaign to get madrassas registered by December has, by all accounts, fizzled out due to a "lack of cooperation" from the apex bodies of religious schools. The Wafaq-ul-Madaris, Pakistan's main confederacy of seminaries, which runs approximately 8,200 institutions, has refused to follow the Madaris Registration Ordinance 2005, along with two other bodies - the Tanzeemat-e-Madaris Deeniya and the Tanzeem-ul-Madaris Ahle Sunnat - saying the process was intended to curb the "independence and sovereignty" of the madrassas.

There have been a series of high-profile arrests and incidents that indicate that the Taliban continue to maintain a vibrant presence in Pakistani territory, especially in the provinces of Balochistan and the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP). Pakistani authorities have fitfully and selectively acted against some Taliban elements from time to time, though there are continuous reports of very substantial freedom of movement and activity granted to the main body of the force and its leadership.

Mullah Abdul Mannan Hanafi and Mullah Mohammad Akbar, former Taliban provincial governors and military commanders, for instance, were shot dead by "unidentified assailants" in Peshawar on November 8. Incidentally, Hanafi was the "military commander" in Bamiyan when the Taliban demolished the two Buddha statues there.

After the Taliban defeat, Hanafi was arrested in Balochistan by Pakistani authorities and detained for a few months, but was eventually set free due to "lack of evidence" of his involvement in terrorist activity. Earlier, Aftab Ahmed Sherpao, Pakistan's interior minister, informed the media on October 4, in Quetta, capital of Balochistan, that they had arrested Abdul Latif Hakimi, Taliban's chief spokesperson, and five others, from the province.

Hakimi was in regular contact with the media, speaking by satellite telephone from undisclosed locations and often made claims of inflicting huge casualties on US and Afghan troops. In June, when an MH-47 helicopter was shot down in the Kunar province bordering Pakistan, killing all 16 US troops on board, Hakimi claimed the incident even before US or Afghan officials acknowledged it. While some of his claims have been fanciful, there was no doubt that Hakimi was aware of several Taliban operations, and was based in Pakistan - more often than not, in Balochistan.

Although this has been adequately documented in global reporting, it merits repetition here that the Taliban have regrouped rather well, although it may still be incapable of launching an Iraq-type insurgency. This is particularly the case in the Afghan countryside, particularly in provinces dominated by the Pashtuns along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. The Pakistani and Taliban stratagem is favored further by the unfortunate fact that the Karzai regime has little control over southern and eastern Afghanistan. Sources indicate that the Taliban, al-Qaeda and Hizb-e-Islami operatives, functioning from sanctuaries in and around Balochistan, have amplified their activities since March.

Islamabad has evidently allowed the Taliban to regroup within its territory and to launch attacks across the border. Despite selective arrests, there is no indication that Pakistan is about to cut the Taliban's lifeline on its soil. The essential objective is to prevent the Karzai regime from stabilizing without a pre-dominant Pakistani role.

In many ways, this is an existential strategy as far as Pakistan is concerned: a strong and stable regime in Kabul would immediately put the Durand Line into question, and further destabilize north Balochistan and the NWFP. Pakistan, consequently, will continue its efforts to recover "strategic depth" in Afghanistan, using the Taliban as a proxy, but will do so within limits that do not invite US ire and reprisals. Maintaining a threshold level of violence and subversion is integral to this strategy in Afghanistan.