Afghanistan News September 23, 2003

September 23, 2003

Pakistani, Afghan leaders to visit Ottawa
Mon Sep 22, 6:46 PM ET
OTTAWA (AFP) - The presidents of Pakistan and Afghanistan will both be in Ottawa this week for talks with Prime Minister Jean Chretien and other leaders on Canada's growing role in Afghanistan, officials confirmed.

President Prevez Musharaff of Pakistan and President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan will both visit the Canadian capital after attending the United Nations General Assembly in New York.

Musharaff will fly into Ottawa on Thursday for a two-day visit, while Karzai will be here on Saturday for what is expected to be a five-hour visit.

David Rudd of the Canadian Institute for Strategic Studies said Karzai can be expected to ask Canada to extend its current commitment for maintaining nearly 2,000 troops for one year.

The Canadian military contingent is the largest from any of the more than 30 countries participating in the international stabilization force in Kabul.

Privately, Canadian officials say a firm commitment from Canada is unlikely to come before Chretien visits Afghanistan later this year in one of his final foreign trips prior to his already-scheduled retirement as prime minister next February.

Sharif Ghalib, a spokesman for the Afghan embassy in Ottawa, said Karzai and senior officials will meet with Chretien, Foreign Affairs Minister Bill Grahaham and Defence Minister John McCallum.

Musharaff's visit to Ottawa, to run over two days, is seen by insiders here as a signal that Canada and Pakistani are moving closer to each other politically and diplomatically.

Canada has been among the most vocal critics of Pakistan in recent years over human rights issues and over its nuclear tests over the past five years.

Following those nuclear tests in 1998, Canada suspended aid and loans, except for humanitarian projects, and cut visits and exchanges with Pakistan.

Resurgent Taliban using night-vision goggles, satphones, spies
Tuesday September 23, 11:04 AM AFP
The Taliban are better organised, more mobile, using more sophisticated equipment and applying their knowledge of guerrilla warfare to destabilise the Afghan government, security officials in the insurgency-hit southeast say.

"The rise in power of the Taliban is, unfortunately, in no doubt," Mohammad Gaus Naseri, chief of security in a district in southeast Paktika province bordering Pakistan, told AFP.

Paktika, facing Pakistan's ultra-conservative tribal districts of North and South Waziristan, has borne the brunt of violent guerrilla attacks by the resurgent fighters, almost two years after their harsh five year regime was toppled by US-led forces for harbouring Osama bin Laden.

The militia took control of the Paktika border district of Barmal a month ago after driving troops and officials out, and they are claiming control of four other southeast districts.

"Where they used to move in small groups of a dozen, they now move around in groups as big as 150, infiltrating deep into our territory," Naseri said.

Attacks on frontier districts have also risen in intensity, which Naseri considered ominously "a sign of better organisation and mobilisation."

"The situation is getting worse," Paktika's vice-governor Sador Khan told AFP in Paktika's Urgun city, 30 kilometers (18.6 miles) from the Pakistan border.

"The Taliban move around by day, they are better structured, and they have received from their Pakistani sponsors more money, new weapons and satellite telephones."

A member of the Afghan Militia Forces -- militia fighters allied with American troops and attached to the US base at Urgun -- said the Taliban were using more sophisticated equipment and elaborate spy networks.

"During operations, we got our hands on weapons equipped with silencers and even Russian-made night vision goggles," the militiaman told AFP, requesting anonymity.

"Their information network has even expanded, it's more efficient, their spies are present in all big urban centres and information travels fast, thanks to their satellite telephones."

Their strategy: to destabilise all of southeast Afghanistan, with top priorities Zabul province, next to Paktika, and construction sites along the Kabul to Kandahar road, said a humanitarian worker in Ghazni.

The Taliban use guerrilla tactics learned during the mujahedin struggle against Soviet invaders in the 1980s: ambushes, bombs, destruction of schools and public buildings, campaigns of intimidation, and assassinations of Afghans working for "foreigners" and the central government in Kabul.

They avoid mounting huge offensives which draw immediate response from government troops and scorching aerial bombing by the US-led military coalition.

Peculiar to this new wave of violence is attack by motorbike.

Fast, discreet, hardy and inexpensive, the motorbike has proved to be an indispensable weapon in the hands of the Taliban: to stage ambushes, coordinate operations and collect information.

Four policemen tasked with providing security to labourers rebuilding the Kabul to Kandahar road were killed in late August after their car was ambushed and attacked by four assailants on motorbikes.

Who are the Taliban? Paktika's deputy governor Khan put them in three categories.

"Former officials and fighters of the regime who took refuge in Pakistan in late 2001, Arabs and Chechens from al-Qaeda who lead groups of fighters and operations against US troops, and villagers recruited on the spot," he said.

Parallel to their guerrilla war, the Taliban are waging an intense propaganda campaign, distributing pamphlets and anti-Western sermons by sympathetic mullahs to win the support of the rural population and recruit new fighters, the security officials said.

The Taliban "know," surmised Sador Khan, that the support of local Pashtuns -- the ethnic majority who are increasingly furious at their omission from the political process in Kabul -- is the "key factor" which could tilt the balance in their favour.

U.S. Investigating Afghan Civilian Death Report
Mon Sep 22, 9:24 AM ET
KABUL, Afghanistan (Reuters) - The U.S. military said Monday it was investigating charges that U.S.-led forces killed civilians while attacking Taliban guerrillas in southern Afghanistan last week.

Afghan officials have said that at least eight Afghan nomads, including women and children, were killed in a U.S. air strike that killed two Taliban guerrillas, including commander Mohammad Gul Neyazi, in Zabul province last Wednesday.

"The allegation that coalition forces caused noncombatant casualties in Zabul province last week is under investigation," said a statement from the U.S. headquarters at Bagram, north of Kabul.

"The coalition takes every precaution to prevent noncombatant casualties and collateral damage and takes these reports of potential casualties seriously," it said. "We investigate all incidents of possible noncombatant casualties."

The statement said no further information was available pending the results of the investigation.

A statement from the military at the weekend said it was "highly confident" that only combatants died in Wednesday's raid that killed Neyazi.

But Afghan officials said a bomb had landed on the nomads' tent and that Taliban guerrillas were known to have taken refuge with nomad families in the area in the past.

The military said last week that air strikes by U.S.-led forces had killed 11 Taliban fighters over the previous three days in Zabul and neighboring Kandahar province.

Violence has plagued southern Afghanistan since U.S.-led forces overthrew the Taliban in late 2001 and has worsened markedly in recent weeks.

Since the start of August, more than 280 people have been killed and scores wounded across the country, among them civilians, Afghan aid workers, police and militiamen, three U.S. soldiers and many Taliban guerrillas.

Bush Picks Ambassador to Afghanistan
Mon Sep 22, 7:52 PM ET
WASHINGTON - President Bush has decided to name his special envoy to Afghanistan, Zalmay Khalilzad, as ambassador to the country.

If approved by the Senate, Khalilzad would succeed Ambassador Robert Finn, who was the first ambassador to Afghanistan in more than two decades. Adolph Dubs was killed in 1979 in a shootout in Kabul after he was kidnapped by Afghan Muslim extremists while being driven to the U.S. Embassy.

Khalilzad would continue to serve as special envoy, said White House spokesman Scott McClellan.

Bush met with Khalilzad Monday morning and formally nominated him later in the day.

"Zal has done a great job as special envoy and the president appreciates Zal taking on this new role at such an important time as we continue to build upon the progress we are making in Afghanistan," McClellan said.

Khalilzad, an ethnic Pashtun, was born in Mazar-e-Sharif the son of a government worker who moved the family to Kabul. Khalilzad, from an upper-class family, studied at American University in Beirut and earned a doctorate in 1979 at the University of Chicago.

Between 1985 and 1989, Khalilzad worked at the State Department, advising on the Iran-Iraq war and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. In 1991 and 1992, he was assistant deputy undersecretary of defense for policy planning, working under Paul Wolfowitz, now in the No. 2 seat at the Pentagon.

During the Clinton years, Khalilzad worked on defense and political issues at the Washington office of Rand, a policy think tank. After Bush was elected, Vice President Dick Cheney named him to head Bush's transition team for defense.

In May 2001, Khalilzad was named special assistant to the president and senior director at the National Security Council for the Persian Gulf, southwest Asia and other issues in the region.

In the winter of 2000, before he was appointed to the NSC, he outlined his recommendations for U.S. policy goals in Afghanistan in an article published by The Washington Quarterly. Many of his ideas later materialized as policy as Bush began the war on terrorism.

Further €50 million for Afghanistan: EU pledge at Afghanistan Donors Conference in Dubai
Source: European Commission 22 Sept 2003
At the Afghanistan donors meeting in Dubai 21st September, the European Commission announced its intention to make a further €50 million available to the country, in particular, to promote security in Afghanistan.

The donors meeting was held in the margins of the IMF/ WB annual meetings, and was chaired by the Afghan Transitional Authority. Security is the single biggest challenge facing Afghanistan today, and the current difficulties impact on both physical and political reconstruction. The Commission will propose a package of €50 million to support the Afghan police. This would enhance the sizeable contribution already made by EU Member States to security through providing troops to ISAF ; through Provincial Reconstruction Teams ; and through their contribution to training the Afghan National Army. The €50 million package is proposed in addition to the €400 million already committed to reconstruction in 2003-04.

U.S. to increase financing for security needs in Afghanistan, Iraq
Source: US Department of State 22 Sept 2003
Larson underscores importance of international support for effort
The United States is preparing to boost its financing for reconstruction efforts in both Afghanistan and Iraq with the aim of ensuring greater security in the two countries, according to Alan Larson, under secretary of State for economic, global, and agricultural affairs. Larson acknowledges that "improvements in the security situation in both Afghanistan and Iraq will be necessary before we achieve the goals of reconstruction."

In a September 21 press briefing at the IMF/World Bank Annual Convention in Dubai, Under Secretary Larson highlighted President Bush's recent proposal for $1.2 billion in U.S. assistance to Afghanistan over the next year and $20 billion for the rebuilding of Iraq.

With regard to the assistance to Afghanistan, Larson said "we will be directing our funds at security improvements, including training of the Afghan National Army and National Police."

He emphasized U.S. support for the Afghan government's efforts to strengthen its reach into provincial areas through block grants for local development. "As people in villages throughout Afghanistan see their lives improve and economic development brought to them with the leadership of their own government, it's going to help the security issue as well," he said.

As for Iraq, both security and infrastructure needs are being addressed. "Those are things that both create jobs because they involve things like construction, but they also help create a better platform for private sector lead growth," according to Larson.

The under secretary also praised the recent proposal of the Iraqi Governing Council regarding trade and foreign investment. "It sends a very welcome signal that the Iraqis [are] taking the responsibility for building the new Iraq now, looking for an approach that will tie Iraq into the global economy, that will make it possible for Iraq to attract investment, both from within Iraq but also outside of Iraq," he said.

Larson expressed optimism about the growing commitment of the international community to help in the reconstruction of Iraq. "It's become clear that many of our partners in the international community want to be a part of helping Iraq and will be looking to the donors conference in Madrid in October," he said.

The Madrid Donors' Conference, scheduled for October 24, will allow various international players to study the needs assessments currently being prepared by the IMF and the World Bank and discuss ways of financing those projects.

Larson said the United States will devote the time between now and the Donors' Conference "to a maximum effort to persuade our friends and allies that this is a task that we cannot shirk, that delay will only increase the cost in the long run."

He expressed the hope that bilateral donors, financial institutions and foreign direct investors will all be involved in the rebuilding process, noting that donors could either work through a trust fund to be administered by the World Bank or the United Nations or through direct investment in projects that are consistent with the overall strategy and priorities of the reconstruction effort.

Following is the text of Larson's press briefing in Dubai:

(begin transcript)

Press Briefing -- General Press Availability

Sunday, September 21, 2003, 5 p.m., Dubai Room, Dubai International Convention Center, International Monetary Fund/World Bank Annual Convention

Undersecretary of State for Economic, Global, and Agricultural Affairs Alan Larson

U/S Larson: If you like, I'd like to make a just a few comments on some of the events of the day, with a focus on both Afghanistan and Iraq. In the case of Afghanistan, there is still underway a very useful meeting of the Afghanistan Development Conference that is being hosted jointly by the World Bank and by the Finance Minister of Afghanistan. I think that has proved to be a very useful opportunity for the Government of Afghanistan to give an interim report on the progress they are making, and, at the same, for them highlight the important work that lies ahead. We believe that it is very important for us build on the progress that President Karzai, Finance Minister (Ghani -- sp.), and their team have made. Towards that end, President Bush has proposed to increase the assistance of the United State to Afghanistan by an additional $1.2 billion over the next year. About $400 million of that is immediately available and coming from reprogramming of other assistance. $800 million of that is part of a supplemental request that the President has submitted to the US Congress. We will be directing our funds at security improvements, including training of the Afghan National Army and National Police. We do feel that moving forward from this conference that is being held right now, that others in the international community will want to do everything in their power to accelerate assistance presently in the pipeline and, where possible, increase the amounts of assistance. Already in the meeting we were just at, a number of countries were talking about accelerating their assistance.

On Iraq, there is a very large and important delegation here from Baghdad, including representatives of the Governing Council, the Interim Finance Minister, the Interim Planning Minister, and the Central Bank Governor. They are having a very active set of meetings with countries and international institutions. You all will be aware of the fact that President Bush has asked the US Congress for an additional $20 billion of assistance for the reconstruction of Iraq. We are presently assessing that the total requirements over the next few years will be on the order of $50 to $75 billion. The World Bank, the United Nations, and the International Monetary Fund have been conducting needs assessments over the course of the summer that have been looking at 14 different sectors of the Iraqi economy, coming up with their best estimates of what needs to be done and how much it's going to cost. Those are being discussed with representatives of the Iraqi Ministries so that there can be an integration or dove-tailing of the reconstruction estimates and plans. We believe that is going to be very important to have a major effort on the part of the international community to support Iraqis rebuilding and reclaiming their country. Certainly, our $20 billion is very, very significant contribution, but we will be looking for others to share the burden given the urgency and importance of the task. With those comments, I'll be happy to try to answer any questions. Yes.

Q: With regard to the amount of money you may be seeking from the international community, are you in fact saying that $75 billion is required, and that you're offering $20 billion of that, and that you'll be looking for $55 billion. That's number one, and number two, in regard to the budget for 2003 and 2004, given that those levels, and reduced levels of oil exports, to what extent what does that mean to revenues and the government's ability to finance the deficit for 2003 and 2004?

U/S Larson: Let me start with your second question, because I think that will help me answer your first. Last week, I testified before the US Congress and said that the current estimates coming from Baghdad suggested that oil exports revenues in 2004 would be on the order of $12 billion and that the estimate is that that will increase to $19 billion in 2005 as well as in 2006. In addition, Iraq gets a certain amount of revenue from other taxes and such so that between oil and their other domestically-generated resources, they will probably roughly cover their operating budget. Their operating budget is likely to be on the order of $13 billion. There will be one of the major investments that needs to be made is investments in continuing to rehabilitate and maintain oil production, transportation, and processing so that these targets not only can be hit but hopefully, in some cases, they can be surpassed.

Now with respect to the financing needs, we believe that it will be important to look both to ourselves and to other international donors. Those international donors should include both bilateral donors and the financial institutions. We also think that Iraq progressively can make an important contribution to its own development financing needs and, as I suggested, while there doesn't seem to be a great deal of domestic financing for reconstruction available in 2004, the situation for 2005 and 2006 looks much, looks like there can be a substantial contribution from Iraq's own resources. In addition to that, there is the potential to draw upon found and seized assets, as well as some possible funds available from the turnover from the oil-for-food program. Beyond that, one will be looking to foreign direct investment as an additional way of financing infrastructure reconstruction. So that it's a very large amount of money, the estimates will be refined over the course of the weeks ahead by the work of the IMF, World Bank, and UN, as well as the work in Baghdad, but it's going to have to be met over a period of time and from the various sources that I mentioned.

Q: You just said $12 billion, from what? Oil production and oil exports? Is that figure reliable?

U/S Larson: The $12 billion I believe is predicated on the export level on the order of 1.5 million barrels a day. I think if you do the arithmetic, it looks like about $22 a barrel fob.

Q: Given the status quo in Iraq, how do you think the IMF and World Bank can help the Coalition in its endeavors to rebuild Iraq. This is number one, and the second question, with $50 to $75 billion as the cost of rehabilitation, what period of time does this amount cover?

U/S Larson: I think the meetings here can help the process of reconstruction in Iraq in several ways. First of all, there are a lot of Iraqis here who are making their case for why and about what they intend to do to reclaim their country and rebuild their country and their need for international help. So that's point one. Second, there is a significant amount of technical work that's going on in the margin of these meetings to help refine the needs assessments sectorally and also in the aggregate. Third, I think it's an opportunity for others who want to help Iraq to begin focusing on the task at hand, and certainly we've hand a number of meetings today already, where it's become clear that many of our partners in the international community want to be a part of helping Iraq and will be looking to the donors conference in Madrid in October and will be looking to these needs assessments as a light that will help show them the way.

Now on the numbers themselves, those are estimates of what needs to be done. And it is a multi-year assessment. That $50 to $75 billion is a multi-year number. How quickly it gets done depends on how quickly the funds are available and how quickly they can be effectively spent.

Q: Mr. Larson, you now mentioned, both in relation to Afghanistan and to Iraq, that in the situation of Afghanistan, you've got an indication that donors wish to accelerate their donations ...

U/S Larson: Right.

Q: ... I believe you said that you also are hoping that people would match your new money. Secondly, that many people you met today want to participate, absolutely yes? Have you seen any indication how much the pledges you've gotten on both sides? Are we talking in terms of millions or billions in commitments of money?

U/S Larson: On Afghanistan, two points. First of all, the meeting is still going on, but secondly, the meeting was not designed to be a pledging session, it was designed to be an opportunity for the Afghan authorities to make the case, to present a mid-term review and make the case that they were effectively using the funds that had been made available so far by the donor community and that they could and wish to do more if more funds were available.

With respect to Iraq, I believe that many donors would want to see the finished product that is been underway by the United Nations, the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund so that they can assess for themselves the magnitude and nature of the needs that are there. We intend on the part of the United States to use the time between now and the donors conference to a maximum effort to persuade our friends and allies that this is a task that we cannot shirk, that delay will only increase the cost in the long run. So, we will be working very hard on this as well the Iraqis during the next five weeks.

Q: To follow up, so far since the meetings aren't over, you have no new money committed to Afghanistan?

U/S Larson: Well, again, what I said was that this wasn't intended to be a pledging session, it is intended to be an opportunity for the Afghans to make the case that they are effectively using the money that's been provided. Obviously, the United States is signaling an intention to make a major increase in our own funding commitment. I think that there are other countries that are very seriously considering what they will do. Whether they are in a position to make announcements today is not really the issue. What they do between now and the end of the year is what matters.

Q: Regarding pledges of money from other countries. How much you have gotten, millions or billions?

U/S Larson: On Afghanistan, two points. First of all, the meeting is still going on. But, secondly, the meeting was not designed to be a pledging session, it was designed to be an opportunity for the Afghan authorities to make the case, present a midterm revenue and make the case that they were effectively using the funding that has been provided so far by the donor community, that they could and wish to be able to do more if more funds are available. With respect to Iraq, I believe that many donors will want to see the finished product that has been underway by the United Nations, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, so they can assess for themselves the magnitude and nature of the needs that are there. We intend, on the part of the United States we intend to use the time between now and then. Any delay will only increase the cost in the long run. We will be working very hard on this, as well the Iraqis during the next five weeks.

Q: The meeting is not over, but so far you have no new monetary commitments?

U/S Larson: Again, what I said was, it wasn't intended to be a pledging session, it was intended to be an opportunity for the Afghans to make the case about the fact that they are effectively using the money that has been provided. Obviously the United States is signaling an intention to make a major increase in our own funding commitment. I think there are other countries that are very seriously considering what they will do, whether they are in a position to make announcements today, it's not really the issue. What they do between now and the end of the year is what matters.

Q: My question is (inaudible) will it be invested and used by the UN or the UN or the Iraqis, number one. The second question is do you believe, with regards to bin Laden and Saddam are free, do you still believe that investors would come and invest in Iraq as it now stands?

U/S Larson: There are going to be many avenues open to donors wanting to make a contribution to Iraqi reconstruction. One of the mechanisms that is under preparation is a multi-donor trust fund that might be lodged in the World Bank, or possibly there could be two; one in the World Bank and one in the United Nations. The international community has a long track record with these trust funds, they are run by a government structure that is really created by the donors, the World Bank ensures, carries out a fiduciary responsibility to make sure the money is used in the right way. This would be one mechanism that would be available for donors to contribute and it would be supporting reconstruction according to broadly agreed on general strategy, but the funds would be channeled through this World Bank mechanism. Some countries may decide for some reconstruction projects they are prepared to just come in and do it themselves, through their own funds and their own contracting procedures and I think that is fine as long as it is consistent with the overall strategy and overall set of priorities. So, there is, certainly we hope that the World Bank will be actively involved on its own account. The United Nations already is playing an indispensable role in the areas where they have expertise so there are many avenues and many channels for making contributions. And your second question was?

Q: Saddam and bin Laden.

U/S Larson: Well, look, certainly, improvements in the security situation in both Afghanistan and Iraq will be necessary before we achieve the goals of reconstruction. At the same time, reconstruction and delivering benefits and opportunities to the people of both countries can be a part of strengthening the security situation. In Afghanistan, for example, one of the things that the government is dong with success is strengthening the reach of the government into the provincial areas, strengthening its control over the resources and bringing more development to the regional areas. We heard from the finance minister today of his plans, the government's plans, to try to reach at least one third of the villages by providing block grants to support local development on the basis of, selected by, recommended by local authorities. This is an example of the sort of thing that, to be sure you need security to be able to accomplish this, but at the same time, as people in villages throughout Afghanistan see their lives improve and economic development brought to them with the leadership of their own government, it's going to help to help the security issue as well.

Q: Did you ask the Gulf countries to help with the reconstruction of Iraq and did you get any response from them? The second question, what response did you get from any Arab countries to stop funding terrorism?

U/S Larson: We are just beginning, we will certainly be asking Gulf countries, and I think the Iraqis themselves will ask the Gulf countries to be major participants in the process of reconstruction and I am sure the Gulf states, along with other potential donors, will want to see the more detailed results of the needs assessments that are underway so it has not been a question of asking countries to sign up on the dotted line this week, but we have had some very good conversations with Gulf countries and are pleased that one Gulf country, the United Arab Emirates, is part of the core group that is helping to prepare for the donor conference that will be held in Madrid on 24th of October. The second question you have is a very broad question and goes beyond the scope of this press conference, but let me answer it this way, for the last two years we have been working very hard with partners around the world to choke off the supply of money that is available to finance terrorist activities...We are pleased by the results of this effort, that started out with a United Nations resolution, an effort to freeze monies that are held in formal banking channels. We welcome the progress that has been made in working on flow through informal channels and on addressing the issue that money for charitable purposes get used for the charitable purposes that the donors intended so those have been very important efforts and we think gathering real force of effectiveness and we are going to continue to press ahead on this issue and one of the most imp areas right now is capacity building, making sure that any country that wants to do a better job choking off the flow of financing to terrorists gets the help they need. The lesson is this, terrorism is not directed to one country. We have seen regrettably, terrorist attacks on the United States, but also on Indonesia, also Saudi Arabic, and because the victims of terrorism come from all countries we believe all countries have a stake in being in the fight against terrorist finance.

Q: Regarding the new Iraqi trade policy, why now?

U/S Larson: We heard earlier this morning from a member of the Iraqi governing council, from the interim Finance Minister, and Planning Minister and Central Bank governor about the decision to really have a regime that would set the trade and investment that is very open and very conducive to making Iraq a full partner in the global economy. It is our understanding, based on what we heard from the Iraqis themselves, that this was an approach that was discussed and debated at great length by the governing council and every paragraph and every sentence of the new policy was approved by the Governing Council. So, I don't know what planning went into the Governing Council. Getting to the point that they were moving forward with this approach at this moment, but I do think though, that it sends a very welcome signal that the Iraqis were taking the responsibility for building the new Iraq now, looking for an approach that will tie Iraq into the global economy, that will make it possible for Iraq to attract investment, both from within Iraq, but also outside of Iraq. That indicates to me that the prospects for a strong recovery provided there is sufficient donor support are very good.

Q: There are reports being published that the CPA basically only has $200 million and beyond that, it is going to go broke. Can you comment on the funds available to the CPA, number one, and the second point, the figures that you gave on Iraq are really predicated on best case scenarios or increased oil production, etc., etc. What is the worst-case scenario? How much is it going to cost? And to what level is the Bush Administration willing to go before Congress and ask for more supplementals?

U/S Larson: I think you would be better off addressing your first question to the Iraqis that are here this week. They've been working on the budget in great detail, and I think they can give you a much better answer on the day-to-day finances than I can. On your second question, I would characterize the estimates that I gave you today and that I gave during Congressional testimony last week as estimates that may be a little bit on the conservative side because we recognize that sabotage and looting continues to be an issue but we do believe that they are reasonable estimates that one can hope to see. We know that oil production has been rising recently and based on the estimates that the Iraqi Oil Minster and the CEO have provided lead us to believe that these are reasonable planning estimates.

Q: First, are you really seriously telling us that you knew nothing about the apparent plans of the Interim Iraqi Government in respect to their call today, and the question of (inaudible)?

U/S Larson: First of all, certainly, we were aware of the discussions and the debate going on about what type of investment regime would be appropriate. Since I was on an airplane for a considerable time in getting here, I was not aware of this until I saw the Iraqis in the first meeting I had this morning that they had resolved that debate and that they were planning on making some announcements today. On your second question, I think in the type of situation one has now in Iraq, it would be very unwise to wait and make no decisions until such time as there have been elections under a new constitution, because that would be the recipe for economic malaise. That would hurt the political process and the process of reconstruction. After a consultative process that was very exhaustive, a governing council was chosen. The governing council took on the responsibility of selecting ministers and these Iraqis have been part of the process of coming forward with new rules on things like foreign investment and trade strategy. In the future, it's always possible for the government to take different courses that could be possible here. But I guess I would turn your question around. It shows a high degree of responsibility for these Iraqis to be grappling with these issues and to be trying to sort out what is the right commercial strategy for Iraq to have at this stage. I think it's a very welcome thing that they've done so.

Q: But can 17 people really be trusted to put together a government structure for an entire country?

U/S Larson: This is setting some rules on how things are going to operate at this stage. I think that it is inevitable that those types of decisions would be made. I think it is being made on a very consultative basis and you all know the process that is being set up that we are moving as quickly as possible to an Iraqi-determined process for writing a constitution and holding elections, and we'd like to see that continue. But in the meantime, we have to and they have to move ahead so that Iraqis can have jobs and have better economic life.

Q: Can you update us about US plans to withhold assistance from Israel (inaudible), specifically on the impact to the exact amount of US loan guarantees to Israel?

U/S Larson: I won't characterize it that way, but let me characterize it this way. As part of the arrangement that we negotiated with the government of Israel on the loan guarantees, we have agreed that there would be deductions from the total amount of the guarantees available and that there would be a sizable deduction related to certain types of expenditures on settlements. So, we announced several days ago that we were going to continue that policy, and that the Secretary of State would make the final decision on the exact size of what those deductions would be. And that's all I think there is to say on it.

Q: I'd like to come back to the subject of Iraq. I'd like to ask the question about foreign direct investment, the question really is that is this corrective, not only for the reasons that aren't outlined, but is there the real possibility that these assets will be seriously undervalued at this stage? No realistic company seeing American soldiers being killed perhaps every day when it all averages out is likely to want to put stock there even if the World Bank puts stock there. It seems they're unlikely to see these things pay for what ultimately, perhaps in six months or a year's time, any fair value for these companies. And, of course, the rate at which these investors will go, as there are no restrictions on it simply, and it's a level playing field, until now. And then you have a draw off, controlled by those few that remain, just like in other countries too.

U/S Larson: Well, again, this decision, as I understand it, to have a door that's relatively open to foreign investment, not a policy that, in any way, forceful on investors to come in. The environment isn't one that going's to be made so that they won't come in and invest. I do think that as a country, along with the United Kingdom that has benefited enormously from foreign investment I happen to believe that the approach that is being adopted is a very sensible one. I don't think that the policy as I heard it described this morning is one that will necessarily result in massive privatization of existing industries. You're talking about two different things here. Foreign investment, first and foremost, is about having the possibility to come in and make investments and create jobs by building, financing equipment, things of that sort. I think foreign investment can make a contribution to Iraq's economic development. I think in the short run, there will need to be a great deal of official assistance. And that's why the $20 billion that President Bush has asked the US Congress for will go largely for improvements in security, including training of security forces, and also for urgent infrastructure needs, like electricity, power, and roads. Those are things that both create jobs because they involve things like construction, but they also help create a better platform for private-sector lead growth. So, I think it's important to recognize that those statements on foreign investment made today are well welcome signals of the direction that Iraqi authorities want to go in the future. I think it's also very important to underscore that in the short run there's going to be a huge need for public funds to help them get to the point where they can attract foreign investment and, naturally, this is in the viewpoint of the donors' efforts underway now.

Afghanistan authorities halt cable TV
Mon Sep 22,11:40 AM ET AP TV
PESHAWAR, Pakistan - Authorities in eastern Afghanistan have halted a cable TV network's transmission, accusing it of violating a ban on broadcasting Western and Indian music and movies, the cable operator said Monday.

Afghanistan's supreme court in December ordered cable networks not to broadcast Western and Indian programs that show men and women singing and dancing together, because such images could offend Islamic and local culture. News and sports channels are permitted.

Officials last week halted operations at The Afghan Cable Center in Jalalabad, capital of Nangarhar province, said the company's head, Humayun, who like many Afghans uses a single name.

He denied he had violated the ban.

Humayun said he expects the ban to be lifted soon, and a team of censors appointed to monitor television content.

Only a few people can afford TV sets in poverty-stricken Afghanistan, and state-run television resumed transmission after a U.S.-led coalition ousted the country's hard-line Taliban militia in late 2001.

The Taliban had banned television, movies, music and many other forms of entertainment under their strict interpretation of Islamic laws.

Opium crop clouds Afghan recovery
Monday, 22 September, 2003, 12:04 GMT 13:04 UK BBC News
Afghanistan is mass producing heroin again
Opium growing is coming to dominate Afghanistan's economy, providing roughly half the war-shattered country's wealth, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned.
"A dangerous potential exists for Afghanistan to progressively slide into a 'narco-state' where all legitimate institutions become penetrated by the power and wealth of (drug) traffickers," the IMF said.

Afghanistan now provides about 75% of the world's opium crop, it added, which is worth around $20bn

The IMF published its report on Afghanistan during its annual meeting, which is taking place this year in Dubai in the Persian Gulf.

The international community must not for a moment lose its focus on Afghanistan

James Wolfensohn, President, World Bank
Meanwhile, on the sidelines of the meeting, the Afghan finance minister Ashraf Ghani pleaded for more aid for his country from Western donors, while warning that the deterioration of security in Afghanistan was dire and that without an "infusion of urgency" into everyone's commitment, the country could all too easily become a "narco-mafia state".

Progress threatened
The IMF praised the Afghan government's reconstruction efforts, saying a new currency, better banking system and improved tax collection had all strengthened the economy.

Growing opium earns more than growing wheat
But the production of opium is a "dark cloud over this scenario", said Adam Bennet, IMF head of mission in Afghanistan.

Afghanistan's official, non-opium economy is growing sturdily, up 30% in the 12 months to end-March 2003 The current year is expected to see 20% growth.

But if the opium trade were included in the official figures, the IMF reckons it would make up between 40% and 60% of gross domestic product.

Rich pickings

Afghan farmers can make 38 times as much growing opium as they can from wheat.

Mr Ghani told officials from G7 nations and international donors that that the cost of rebuilding his country had been underestimated.

He said Afghanistan needed reconstruction aid of $30bn over the next five years.

Mr Ghani said that the money would be well-spent, with the West already spending $10bn each year on military and security costs.

And he warned that "the costs of failure in Afghanistan will hit budgets in major Western countries...for years to come".

Mr Ghani also said his country received pledges for more than $1.2bn of extra financial aid at the Dubai meeting.

The bulk of the money came from the United States, while the European Union put up about $45m for help with security.

"The international community must not for a moment lose its focus on Afghanistan," said James Wolfensohn, World Bank President.

Dutch FM named as new NATO head
Tuesday September 23, 4:50 AM AFP
Dutch Foreign Minister Jaap de Hoop Scheffer was named as new head of NATO, succeeding George Robertson at the helm of an alliance rocked by the Iraq war but battling to transform its role worldwide.

The 55-year-old Dutchman, who will take over after Robertson steps down in December, is seen as a diplomatically safe pair of hands keen to heal transatlantic rifts at the US-dominated 19-member military alliance.

The outgoing British NATO chief paid tribute to de Hoop Scheffer, saying he faced "challenging times" at the helm of the Alliance as it expands and changes to adapt to the post-Cold War and post-September 11 world.

"These are challenging times for NATO which is busier than ever, and has also embarked on a radical transformation to adapt to the new security environment, and I am delighted that we have found the right man to ensure NATO remains the world's most successful defence alliance," Robertson added.

NATO governments hailed De Hoop Scheffer as a leader who would be able to strengthen transatlantic ties, and continue developing an alliance that would be ready to confront new crises and threats.

"He's the ideal person to continue NATO's transformation... into an alliance militarily capable and deployable and politically prepared to confront the new threats of terrorism and weapons of mass destruction," US ambassador to NATO Nicholas Burns said in a statement.

Speaking to reporters in New York after his appointment was announced, De Hoop Scheffer described himself as a "European, but also an Atlanticist", who would try to "build bridges wherever that is necessary."

De Hoop Scheffer's appointment was also welcomed by Italy, Germany and Britain, with Foreign Secretary Jack Straw saying he had the "highest respect for his professionalism and leadership skills."

The widely expected appointment was made by NATO's decision-making North Atlantic Council (NAC) of permanent ambassadors.

Robertson, who announced in January he would leave at the end of his mandate as head of the world's premier military alliance, has stressed that a decision was needed "quickly" because NATO faces a crucial period in its history.

The race to succeed Robertson got off to a slow start before the summer break, with few candidates throwing their hats into the ring and little enthusiasm for any of them, according to diplomats.

De Hoop Scheffer emerged as a candidate, albeit without dazzling enthusiasm, over the summer. The other major contender to emerge was Canadian Finance Minister John Manley.

But the Dutchman's hopes were boosted when Norwegian Defence Minister Kristin Krohn Devold, who had been in the running before the break, announced she was backing him.

Born on April 3, 1948, in Amsterdam, de Hoop Scheffer is an experienced diplomat who headed the offices of four Dutch foreign ministers before taking the top job himself in July 2002.

Robertson is widely perceived as having done a good job at a difficult time since taking over at NATO after the Kosovo war, in which he shone as British defence minister.

He has notably overseen a key phase of the Alliance's "transformation" from Cold War era bloc to post-September 11 global security organisation, and its forthcoming expansion to include seven former communist states.

NATO was plunged into an unprecedented crisis in February this year amid transatlantic rifts over going to war against Iraq.

In particular three anti-war countries -- France, Germany and Belgium -- refused to back a request by NATO member Turkey to lend it military support in the run-up to the US-led war.

Diplomats say the wounds from that crisis have been relatively quick to heal. If so, this will free the new NATO head up to continue Robertson's transformation agenda -- notably including command since August of peacekeepers in Afghanistan, its first deployment outside its traditional European theatre.

Robertson, recalling that de Hoop Scheffer had worked at the Dutch delegation to NATO, said: "Jaap has a distinguished record as both a diplomat and politician that makes him superbly qualified to be secretary general."

And he added: "Over the years NATO has been well served by many secretaries general, and I am certain that Jaap will continue that fine tradition."

End US support to Afghan warlords: Human Rights Watch
Mon Sep 22, 8:46 PM ET
NEW YORK (AFP) - Human Rights Watch asked President George W. Bush in a letter to cut US money and weapons to Afghan warlords tied to rights abuses.

Bush is to meet with Afghan President Hamid Karzai Tuesday on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.

The New York-based rights watchdog urged Karzai, in a separate letter, to back Afghan constitutional protections for human rights, especially women and religious and ethnic minorities.

"President Karzai should ask the United States once and for all to end the supply of arms and money to the warlords who are destabilizing Afghanistan and intimidating Afghans throughout the country," said Brad Adams, executive director of Human Rights Watch's Asia division.

"President Bush should encourage President Karzai to do everything in his power to ensure that the new constitution protects women's rights and religious freedom while creating a judiciary that will ensure those rights have meaning in real life and are not just nice words on paper."

The group said in a statement, "Since leading the military effort to remove the Taliban from power in 2001, the United States has attempted to support the government in Kabul while providing arms and money to regional warlords and military commanders who have joined the continuing fight against Taliban remnants and al-Qaeda.

"In a series of reports, Human Rights Watch has documented systematic rights violations by gunmen under the warlords' command and the deteriorating security situation that has ensued.

"These developments have called into question many of the gains made since the ouster of the Taliban," the group said.

Rights abuses and forced displacement in central Oruzgan province
KABUL, 22 September (IRIN) - The Afghan Independent Human Rights Commission (AIHRC) has expressed serious concern about rights abuses in the Daikundi district of the central province of Oruzgan. "At least every week we are monitoring a case of forced displacement or intimidation of civilians by local commanders in the area," Ahmad Nader Naderi, a spokesperson for AIHRC told IRIN on Sunday.

Naderi said their teams in Daikundi had found that factional fighting and cruelty by local commanders had caused many problems for local civilians. AIHRC expressed concern following a report from the Office of United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), which said that 60 families had been displaced due to factional fighting in Daikundi.

"Up to 60 families have been displaced by recent fighting in Daikundi, in central Afghanistan," Maki Shinohara, a UNHCR spokesperson said on Sunday, adding that fighting between two commanders had erupted in Koshak valley on 26 August, and restarted again earlier this month.

According to UNHCR, local villagers from Kaman, Peshparan and Kulipalat had fled to friends and relatives in neighbouring districts. "We are closely monitoring the situation and are prepared to assist these families if necessary," Shinohara said, noting that the fighting had subsided, "So we hope that these families can soon return back to their homes in safety," she added.

"Our teams monitoring returns have collected over the past two years numerous reports of human rights abuses and harassment by the local commanders in the Daikundi area," the UN refugee agency spokesperson underlined. She also explained displacement due to insecurity remained a problem in northern provinces such as Faryab, as well as Kapisa province, north of Kabul.

"UNHCR currently does not recommend displaced families to return to some of the specific areas in these provinces due to ongoing conflict or human rights abuses," said Shinohara.

The Afghan rights commission has warned that intimidation and displacement of civilians may increase, unless it is not properly addressed." The commission is deeply concerned at increasing amounts of factional fighting and displacement of civilians," Naderi said, warning that unless the government or the US-led coalition acted against the perpetrators, displacement would continue.

AIHRC confirmed that the displacement issue was more serious in the north of the country as people had to leave their areas for their own protection. It's not just fighting that is causing families to flee. "People are leaving their homes in groups and individually to protect their families," the human rights activist said, mentioning many of these families had had to flee the area to save their daughters from forced marriages by local commanders.

According to UNHCR, there are 220,000 internally displaced people (IDPs) in Afghanistan, the majority of whom were displaced by drought in the southern provinces. "UNHCR is working to find immediate and long-term solutions to internally displaced people with an increased involvement of the central government, particularly the Ministry of Refugees and Repatriation and the Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development," Shinohara highlighted.

Kuwait Red Crescent donates 760,000 dollars for Afghan refugees, Liberia
Kuwait News Agency 22 Sept 2003
KUWAIT, Sept 22 (KUNA) -- Kuwait Red Crescent Society announced on Monday a donation of 750,000 US dollars in assistance of Afghan refugees and 10,000 US dollars to lessen Liberian people's civil war burdens.
A society statement said the donation for the Afghan refugees came in cooperation with the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR).

It said the donation would be used to assist Afghan refugees, digging of wells and reconstruction of dams.

The donation to Liberia is designed to purchase medicine supply through the International Committee for the Red Cross (ICRC).

Taliban control four Afghan districts
AFP, ISLAMABAD via Independent Bangladesh
Sept 22: The Taliban are in control of four districts in southeast Afghanistan and have formed four committee to organise "resistance" to US-led forces, a spokesman for the resurgent militia was quoted saying here Monday.

"Our military victories have come after declarations by (Afghan President) Hamid Karzai's puppet government that they were rejected from Zabul, Kandahar, Helmand and Uruzgan provinces," Hamid Agha, who identified himself as the new spokesman for the 'Taliban Islamic Movement,' told The News daily. "We have struck back and will continue to show our presence all over Afghanistan," he was quoted as saying. The News said Agha had made contact by satellite telephone from an unknown location inside Afghanistan. Agha said Taliban leaders recently held a "shura" or council meeting in Afghanistan, where they decided to form four commissions to organise resistance to the 12,500 troops part of the US-led military coalition. They would also conduct "military, political and cultural work," he said without elaborating.

Bin Laden Is Probably Alive, Pakistan's Musharraf Tells ABC
Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Osama bin Laden, the leader of the al- Qaeda terrorist network, is probably still alive and moving between remote areas of Pakistan and Afghanistan, Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf told ABC News.

``I think he's on the run, al-Qaeda is on the run,'' Musharraf said in an interview. ``He could be on our side, he could be even on the Afghan side. I'm very sure, reasonably sure, that he's shifting places.''

The Arab television channel al-Jazeera earlier this month showed pictures of bin Laden and his deputy Ayman al-Zawahri walking through an unidentified mountainous landscape. Members of al-Qaeda and Afghanistan's ousted Taliban regime are said to have fled into remote tribal areas of northwestern Pakistan to escape the U.S.-led war on terrorism begun in 2001.

The Pakistani president rejected suggestions his government isn't doing enough to hunt down the fugitives. ``People don't understand the realities on the ground there,'' he told ABC. ``This is an inhospitable terrain. You couldn't even get inside, you couldn't work within these regions.''

Pakistan Captures Terror Chief's Brother
Younger Brother of Suspected Southeast Asian Terror Chief Hambali Arrested in Pakistan
The Associated Press
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan Sept. 22 — Pakistani police captured the younger brother of Hambali, Osama bin Laden's point man for Southeast Asia, in an arrest that may help unravel a tangled web of links between al-Qaida and the Jemaah Islamiyah terror group blamed for the deadly Bali bombings.

Rusman Gunawan, an Indonesian, was among 17 students detained Saturday in raids on three Islamic schools in the southern port city of Karachi the latest in a string of high-profile arrests of terror suspects in this Muslim country.

Germany Opens Cultural Institute in Kabul
By STEPHEN GRAHAM September 22, 2003 at 10:48:41 PDT
KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) - Germany on Monday opened the first foreign cultural institute in Afghanistan since the fall of the repressive Taliban regime.

The Goethe Institut, which offers language study and other cultural programs, officially reopened in the capital, Kabul, after a 12-year absence.

The return of foreign-funded schools and libraries is meant to underpin a tentative cultural renaissance in this city, much of which was destroyed in the two decades of war that paved the way for the rise of hardline Islamic Taliban.

"The focus is on the common search for a new way forward after more than 20 years of war and destruction, a way forward which draws on the gentle power of culture," said Wolfgang Bader, the deputy general-secretary of the Munich-based institute, at an opening ceremony.

Today, the people of Kabul can enjoy films and music performances - unthinkable under the Taliban. New radio stations and newspapers abound.

Amid the violence still wracking much of the country, and warnings that Westerners could be targeted for terrorist attacks, Bader said bringing staff back into Kabul was "courageous."

A French cultural institute is expected to open shortly. The British Council is also considering a return, possibly in 2004, embassy officials said.

The United States plans to sponsor small libraries across the city and is recruiting dozens of Afghan students for yearlong study trips later this year.

The Goethe Institut plans to offer a language program, and to send Afghan artists, teachers and librarians to work with their contemporaries in Germany.