Afghanistan News February 8, 2003

February 8, 2003

Al-Qaida, Taleban Likely to Exploit Tensions Over Iraq
(VOA) - Afghan and U.S. officials say remnants of the Taleban and al-Qaida terrorist network will likely try to exploit tensions over Iraq, and possibly step up their activities in Afghanistan, if there is a new Gulf war. But the Afghan and U.S. governments say they do not expect the overall security situation in Afghanistan to change significantly.

Over the past few weeks, there has been increased fighting between coalition peacekeeping forces in Afghanistan and remnants of the Taleban and al-Qaida. A number of Afghan civilians have also been killed near the southern city of Kandahar, a former Taleban stronghold.

There are also indications of a new recruitment and training drive by Taleban and al-Qaida fighters, who have reportedly joined forces with Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, a former Afghan warlord intent on ousting U.S. and coalition forces from the country.

The fighting, attacks on civilians, and reports of resurgent Taleban and al-Qaida, have raised fears that, if war breaks out in Iraq, Afghanistan could suffer increased instability, as these forces look to exploit public anger and discontent over a war against Iraq.

Speaking to VOA, Afghanistan's Foreign Minister, Abdullah Abdullah, says Afghans - as Muslims - certainly sympathize with the plight of Iraqi civilians. But, he says, he expects there will be no increase in support for extremist elements in Afghanistan, if U.S.-led forces attack Iraq. "The terrorist groups, the remnants of al-Qaida and the Taleban, might try to provoke and make provocations, and to utilize that atmosphere, which will be a little bit different from the atmosphere of today," he said. "But I am absolutely sure about the situation with our people - they have no sympathy with the regime in Iraq. They do have sympathy with the people of Iraq, which have suffered for so long. But our people do not have sympathy with the Iraqi regime."

Foreign Minister Abdullah says coalition forces are prepared to counter renewed actions by remaining Taleban and al-Qaida, and, therefore, the overall security situation in Afghanistan should not change much in the event of war with Iraq. "The terrorist groups - al-Qaida - its strategy is the destabilization of Afghanistan," Afghanistan's foreign minister. "They will try to do it. Only as a result of that atmosphere [war with Iraq], they might find it easier at that time. That will be the only change, but that is a risk we should be ready to face. That will not mean there will be a big change in the security situation in Afghanistan. The course of the events in Afghanistan after September 11th has changed, and it has been reversed, and that cannot be brought back."

Foreign Minister Abdullah says he also is not worried about a diversion of combat resources away from Afghanistan to Iraq. On the contrary, he says, coalition forces have actually increased their support for his government recently, stepping up training for a new national Afghan army.

Colonel Roger King, the spokesman for the U.S.-led coalition forces in Afghanistan, says he, too, is aware of reports that Taleban and al-Qaida forces might try to exploit tensions over Iraq. However, the U.S. Army colonel says coalition forces have long prepared for any such development. "We have had intelligence reports that say that several organizations that are against us here have tried to say that they are going to tie their activities to the starting or beginning of hostilities somewhere else," said Col. King. "We have seen in the past that these organizations will try and pick an anniversary date; they will try and pick a mark on the calendar as a call to arms. So far, they have done that with limited success, and I do not expect anything different this time. However, as I said, we have intelligence that says that is a possibility, so we will prepare for that eventuality. If they do act, for whatever reasons, we are ready for them; we will deal with it."

Colonel King says operations in Afghanistan are minuscule compared to the forces being deployed for possible action against Iraq. Coalition forces, he says, number about 10,000 - about the size of one U.S. Army division. There are no plans, he says, to divert any resources away from the coalition, until the war against terrorism in Afghanistan is over, something he says will not happen anytime soon.

Aminzadeh in Kabul to Discuss Bilateral Ties, Regional Issues
Tehran Times Saturday, February 08, 2003
KABUL Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister for Asia-Pacific Affairs, Mohsen Aminzadeh, heading a delegation, arrived here Friday to discuss bilateral ties and regional issues as well as Iran's role in the reconstruction of afghanistan.

During his two-day stay in Kabul, Aminzadeh is expected to meet with Afghan President Hamid Karzai, Vice-President and Minister of Defense, Mohammad Qasim Fahim, Minister of Education and presidential advisor for national security, Mohammad Yunis Qanooni, Interior Minister Ahmad Ali Jalali and a number of other ranking officials of that country.

This is Aminzadeh's second visit to afghanistan over the past six months, IRNA reported.

Latvia's parliament approves troop deployment to Afghanistan
Fri Feb 7, 8:24 AM ET AP
RIGA, Latvia - Latvia's parliament approved the deployment of an army medical team to Afghanistan, the first troops from the ex-Soviet republic to be sent to the region, defense officials said Friday.

The team will start a six-month deployment later this month and will include two doctors, four nurses and two drivers, Latvian Defense Ministry spokesman Airis Rikvelis said.

Latvia's 100-seat Saeima legislature approved the deployment late Thursday by a vote of 70-23, with seven abstentions.

The neighboring Baltic states, Estonia and Lithuania, already have troops in Afghanistan, including several helping to clear mines. Latvia, a Baltic Sea coast nation of 2.5 million residents, also has peacekeeping troops in Kosovo.

Lawmakers debated the measure for several hours, with some opposition members arguing that sending troops to Afghanistan would show tacit support for possible U.S.-led military action in Iraq.

The government has expressed support for Washington and ruling lawmakers Friday compared Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein to Josef Stalin and Adolf Hitler. Polls indicate that over 70 percent of Latvians oppose an invasion of Iraq.

Afghan wetlands 'almost dried out'
Little water: The Sistan wetlands are internationally important
Friday, 7 February, 2003, 13:09 GMT By Alex Kirby
BBC News Online environment correspondent in Nairobi

An internationally important wetland area of Afghanistan is now almost completely dry, the UN says.
We very badly want to restore eco-tourism

Dr Ahmad Yusuf Nuristani

Satellite imagery shows 99% of the Sistan wetlands, which stretch over the frontier into Iran, have dried out since 1998.

The Helmand river, which flows into the Sistan area, is running far below its normal level.

Afghanistan says it needs international help if it is to save the wetlands. The findings come from a study of Afghanistan undertaken by the Post-Conflict Assessment Unit of the United Nations Environment Programme (Unep).

Conflict damage

The unit's main report was launched in Kabul on 29 January, but details of the Sistan damage were given to Unep's governing council, meeting here until 7 February.

The Siberian crane is no longer seen
Dr Ahmad Yusuf Nuristani is Afghanistan's Minister of Irrigation, Water Resources and Environment.

He said: "The report makes it clear how conflict causes environmental destruction.

"Similarly, continued environmental depletion and scarcity of natural resources will cause further conflict. Effective environmental management is the key to breaking this vicious cycle."

Dr Nuristani said the Afghanistan Transitional Authority aimed to complete its first national budget by the end of March, and he was asking for nearly $20m for his ministry's environment work.

Important birds

The Unep report says the Helmand river, which drains 31% of Afghanistan's land area, has been flowing as much as 98% below its annual average in recent years.

But what Unep calls "uncoordinated management of the river basin's dams and irrigation schemes" during two decades of conflict have been worsened by four years of drought.
Bamiyan Buddhas: A promise to rebuild
Lacking a stable water source, much of the Sistan basin's natural vegetation has died or been used for fuel.

This has increased soil erosion and the spread of sand on to roads, fields and settlements.

The wetlands used to be crucially important to birds.

In 1975 half a million waterfowl from 150 species were counted on Hamouni-e-Puzak, two-thirds of which lies in the Afghan part of Sistan.

They included eight globally threatened migrants like the Dalmatian pelican and the marbled teal.

Famous statues

In 2002, in central Afghanistan, Unep found the national waterfowl and flamingo sanctuaries at Dasht-e-Nawar and Ab-e-Estada were completely dry.

The critically endangered Siberian crane has not been seen at Ab-e-Estada since 1986. But there is some better news: Band-e-Amir, Afghanistan's first national park, is said to be "in good hydrological condition", supporting populations of ibex and urial (a species of sheep).

Although parts remain heavily mined, Unep says it offers significant potential for nature tourism.

Tourists would come to see the markhor goat
Dr Nuristani told BBC News Online: "We very badly want to restore eco-tourism. It's one of the things we're planning most aggressively, and I hope it will be up and running in a year or two.

"We want visitors to come and see our endangered wildlife - species like the snow leopards, the markhor and the bears.

"And although it will be difficult, I think we'll be able to restore the Bamiyan Buddhas, the statues the Taliban destroyed in 2001."

The mines and unexploded ordnance littering parts of Afghanistan are an obvious deterrent to intending tourists, and also prevent Afghans from using good farming land.

But the assessment unit's chairman, Pekka Haavisto, said his team had found no sign of chemical contamination from the bombing campaign in the places it had visited.

It was the long years of conflict that appeared to have done the worst environmental damage, he said.

Afghanistan hopes to catch investors' eye at IETF
Rediff.com Basharat Peer in New Delhi February 07, 2003 19:08 IST

What is an international technology fair all about?

Showcasing your best products, striking deals with investors, forming partnerships and talking about millions and billions.

And that is what is happening at the ongoing International Engineering and Technology Fair organised by the Confederation of Indian Industry in New Delhi.

The Americans are talking about biotechnology; the Chinese are offering machine tools, motorbikes, silk and spices; the Germans are flashing there automobiles; and business executives from the world over are making presentations in the luxury hotels of the Indian Capital.

But S N Jaffrey, a casually dressed young man, sits the entire day at his small stall at the IETF being held at Pragati Maidan in central Delhi.

Few woollen carpets hang on the walls of the stall. So do a couple of traditional embroidered dresses and four jars full of almond kernels and cashew nuts.

On his desk are three posters one of the famous Bamiyan Buddhas in Afghanistan destroyed by the Taliban. A plaque on the stall reads 'Transitional Islamic Republic of Afghanistan.'

That is all the Afghan stall at the technology fair has to offer. No well-dressed corporate czars hang around.

To a few college students, Jaffrey explains the painful transition in his war-torn country.

"You know with all the trouble in Afghanistan, we hardly have anything to offer. We have the traditional handicrafts and dry fruits. Nothing else," he says apologetically.

Afghans are looking at the technology fair as a possible venue for attracting attention to the sordid state of economic affairs in their country.

"We are trying to meet Indian and foreign businessmen here. There are some people who were interested, but we need investors. That is what brings us here," says Jaffrey, Third Secretary of Commercial Affairs at the Afghan embassy in India.

Since the fall of Taliban and takeover of the Karzai government in Afghanistan, India has been taking an active interest in rebuilding the country.

Along with Iran, India is helping the Afghans build the road from its main port city of Chaubahar near Iran border to Kadhahar, which will open Afghanistan to the sea route.

Indian corporate czars who had visited Afghanistan in last September had seen Afghanistan to have long-term investment opportunities as the country began its reconstruction with the assistance of the international community, which have pledged over $4.5 billion.

Indian companies had seen possibility of consumer goods and automobiles market in the war ravaged country.

The major problem area for the country haunted by hunger and disease is medicine.

"Ranbaxy is interested in setting up a plant there and their representatives have made trips to Kabul. Hopefully, they will be setting up a drug manufacturing plant in Kabul this year," Jaffrey told rediff.com.

But the economic problems for his country are far from over.

Meanwhile, he waits at his IETF stall for potential investors. "We are trying to reach out. Hope things improve," he said.

Afghanistan: Continuing repatriation could cause destabilisation, says NGO
KABUL, 7 February (IRIN) - The Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU), an independent research institution, recently issued a report saying that the Afghan government and the aid community had been premature in encouraging the return of nearly two million refugees in 2002.
"Certainly, mistakes were made by the international community and by the government in Afghanistan in encouraging a wide range of refugees to return," Andrew Wilder, AREU's director, told IRIN in the capital, Kabul.

AREU's report underlined growing concern that continuing short-sightedness about the country's ability to absorb millions of extra people in its cities, towns and countryside would put more lives at risk as the 2003 repatriation season gets under way in March.

The report says it was precisely the weak position of the office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) in relation to the policies of its donors and hosts that prompted it to launch a "facilitated" repatriation programme in early 2002.

"We should not create an avoidable humanitarian crisis by facilitating the return of large numbers," Wilder said, noting that donors should support refugee-protection programmes in Pakistan and Iran. "It will be in the best interest of refugees to remain where they are," he said.

The UNHCR has dismissed the AREU report, saying UNHCR and other agencies had done nothing to encourage refugees to return, "I think there is a fundamental misunderstanding: the government and UNHCR with the support of the donors only assisted those who expressed a wish to come back," Filippo Grandi, the UNHCR chief of mission for Afghanistan, told IRIN in Kabul.

Grandi said donor assistance for Afghan refugees in Pakistan and Iran had been minimal over the past eight years, "Why did they not return in the years before?" he asked, noting that the establishment of the new interim authority in Kabul coupled with an end to the conflict and better security had been important factors in encouraging widespread returns.

"We say to returnees that the situation in Afghanistan is still difficult," he said, adding that the agency should not be blamed for assisting those who were willing to return. According to AREU, 1.8 million Afghans were repatriated from Pakistan and Iran between March and November 2002.

Kabul, a capital in name only, has received more than half a million returnees over the past year. The most pressing problems the returnees face are unemployment and lack of adequate shelter.

"It has been six months, I am living in a ruin," Turan Nur Mohammad, the representative of 300 returnee families living at the Huzuri camp in Kabul, told IRIN. "We were promised by UNHCR to be supported for six months," he said, noting that because he had received no assistance he would have returned to either Pakistan or Iran if he had had the money.

But UNHCR says it has already built 50,000 houses in 2002 and will build another 60,000 this year. The agency is also calling for increased donor commitment for development aassistance. "Employment and services such as schools, hospitals and other economic opportunities should be given for returnees," Grandi said.

The returnee issue is also weighing heavily on the government's mind. The country's shattered infrastructure clearly cannot cope with the numbers of those who have returned voluntarily. Kabul therefore does not want pressure to be brought to bear on it by its neighbours to accept more refugees before it is in a position to absorb them.

"We are trying to sign a tripartite agreement with Pakistan and Iran not to push Afghan refugees to return, because the situation is not conducive," Habibollah Qadiri, the chief adviser to the Ministry of Refugees and Repatriation, told IRIN in Kabul.

For an executive summary of the AREU report, 'Taking Refugees for a Ride' go to:

http://www.areu.org.pk/publications/exec_sum_refugees.doc

Afghanistan: Poor security in the southeast hampers humanitarian aid
ISLAMABAD, 7 February (IRIN) - International aid agencies remain cautions following the recent spate of violence in southeastern Afghanistan. "We are curtailing the staff movements and operations in the outlying areas," James White, South Asia director of the-US based NGO, Mercy Crops, told IRIN in the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, on Friday.
"Recently there has been a pretty significant increase in insecurity around [the southeastern city of] Kandahar that is concerning and disturbing," he said, adding that some violent incidents had targeted international aid agencies in the area.

AP reported on Wednesday that a gun battle had left at least eight combatants dead in Almesh, about 120 km east of Kandahar, where some 200 government soldiers were attacked. The attack may have been the work of Taliban forces or militants loyal to the renegade Afghan warlord, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar. The Afghan government forces also clashed with suspected Taliban and Al-Qaeda fighters in the mountainous area of Shawali Kot, 15 km north of Kandahar city.

In a press statement on 29 January, the international NGO, Action Against Hunger, said a device containing TNT explosive had been thrown at its office in Kandahar. It damaged the building without causing any injuries. On 31 January, a landmine blamed on anti-government forces killed some 18 bus passengers in Kandahar.

Prior to that, on 27 January, at least 18 militants were killed some 24 km northeast of Spin Buldak, near the border with Pakistan, after being pounded by mortars, helicopter fire and bombs by US-led coalition troops.

According to White, the insecurity was not limited to Kandahar; aid agencies were also concerned about a lack of security in the neighbouring Helmand, Zabol and Oruzgan provinces. "Our concerns are about the entire southeast and not just Kandahar alone," he said.

The UN is also cautiously monitoring the situation. "Road missions to areas in Zabol Province which border Pakistan are on hold for the time being until we get clarity on what the situation is," Ahmed Munier, the coordinator for southern Afghanistan for the United Nations Assistance Mission to Afghanistan (UNAMA), told IRIN from Kandahar.

He said some NGOs working there had suspended operations, and this was having an impact on assistance for the extremely poor and vulnerable province. "We are watching the situation, and we are being cautious," he said, adding that it was unclear who was responsible for the fighting.

Kandahar's fledgling administration was doing its best to improve the situation. "We are getting support from the local authorities, who have been very responsive." Munier said. The government was reportedly reinforcing its security personnel and had initiated more stringent measures at checkpoints.

Fiction Turns to Reality in Afghan Refugee Film
BERLIN (Reuters) - Fiction became reality in a British movie opening the Berlin Film Festival competition Friday in its powerful tale of two refugees heading to England in the aftermath of the U.S.-led war in Afghanistan.

``In this World'' focuses on migration, a central theme at the 53rd Berlinale, and follows the fate of two Afghans in a Pakistan refugee camp who seek a new life in the West.

Their journey is long and hazardous and they encounter unscrupulous human traffickers, but also warm-hearted people.

However, as director Michael Winterbottom explained in a news conference, the fictional account has turned into a real-life migration for one of the film's central characters.

Winterbottom and his team showed a documentary-style account of the journey of Jamal Udin Torabi and co-star Enayatullah from a camp in Peshawar, Pakistan, through Iran and Turkey and crammed into a container for 40 hours on a boat bound for Italy.

The 15-year-old Jamal, picked from hopefuls in the camp, has been given leave to stay in Britain until his 18th birthday.

``We went to the camp and met a fixer and hundreds of people. ... We weren't offering a lottery ticket out of there, but work as actors and money,'' said Winterbottom, whose previous features include ``Welcome to Sarajevo'' set in the besieged Bosnian capital in the early 1990s.

Producer Andrew Eaton said they took the two stars back to Pakistan only to find three months later that Jamal had taken advantage of his visa to return to Britain. He has subsequently been taken on by a foster family and is attending school in London. Enayatullah used his fee to buy a toy shop back home.

FICTION TO FACT
The film merges fiction and reality.

A real Iranian guard, for example, insisted on a cameo role and is shown searching a bus bound for Tehran.

``The tale was affected by what we actually came across,'' said writer Tony Grisoni.

Winterbottom said he was compelled to make the film, the first of 22 competing for Berlin's Golden Bear, because of growing hostility toward immigrants throughout Europe.

``People say: 'These people shouldn't be here, they should be sent home'... but even if people are economic migrants, what's wrong with that?'' the director said.

A voice-over at the start contrasts the $7.9 billion it says the United States spent on its war in Afghanistan with the typical budget of under $1 per day for a refugee in a camp on the Afghan-Pakistan border, which is home to 1 million people.

At the end, smiling children playing in the camp sharply contrast with the grim plight of the refugees in the West.

``We have to recognize people are leaving a lot behind,'' Winterbottom said.

Pakistan fears it will be next in US line of fire
By Farhan Bokhari and Edward Luce
The Financial Times February 8 2003 4:00

Khursheed Kasuri, Paki-stan's foreign minister, this week said that he believed relations between Pakistan and the US were as close as ever. But behind the scenes, senior officials in Islamabad are voicing growing doubts about whether all will be as rosy a few months from now.

The US says it will continue to need Islamabad's assistance in the hunt for terrorists in the mountainous provinces that border Afghanistan. But Pakistani officials fear the Bush administration is planning to change its tune dramatically once the war against Iraq is out of the way.

They point to a number of recent "background briefings" and "leaks" from the Bush administration that imply Pakistan could be headed back to the relative isolation it suffered before the September 11 terrorist attacks.

"The US is a fickle superpower that has changed course before," said one Pakistan official.

Last month Nancy Powell, the US ambassador to Islamabad, caused an uproar in Pakistan when she implied that it continued to be a "platform" for the spread of global terrorism.

"Americans don't want to understand our views," says Aimal Khan, a taxi driver in Islamabad. "America sees jihad [holy war] as an act of terror, but for us this is self-defence. How can you ever justify what's happened to Muslims, be it in Palestine or Afghanistan?" Fazal Karim, a hotel waiter, adds: "America has to acknowledge that it has inflicted harm to Muslims by its policies. We should not end jihad because the Americans are telling us so."

Pakistanis are also nervous about Washington's response to apparent evidence that Islamabad transported uranium enrichment technology to North Korea in exchange for assistance with its ballistic missile programme. Pakistan denies the allegations.

But Islamabad notes - with deep misgivings - neighbouring India's increasing influence with the US administration. "We believe that the US is showing double standards towards Pakistan," says a cabinet minister in India, which has fought three wars with Pakistan. "We will keep conveying that message at the highest levels in Washington."

Officially, the Bush administration insists there are no grounds to believe that relations with Pakistan will deteriorate. But in private many are doubtful whether General Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan's military ruler, is capable of pushing through the modernising reforms that he has promised.

Many reforms have been watered down or abandoned. "It is no longer a question of whether Pakistan is going backwards or forwards," says Anatol Lieven at the Carnegie Endowment in Washington DC. "It's a question of how rapidly it's going backwards."

Perhaps the biggest disappointment is Gen Musharraf's failure to tackle what he referred to as Pakistan's "state within a state" that is run by the Islamic groups. These include the estimated 40,000 to 50,000 madrasas, or Islamic schools, that have proliferated over the last 20 years and have provided education to most of the senior Taliban.

In late 2001 Gen Musharraf announced plans to revise the "medieval" curricula of such schools, which have been held widely responsible for the creeping radicalisation of Pakistan youth.

The reform package included setting up government-funded pilot madrasas that would teach English, science, computing and other subjects in addition to traditional theology. None has been established.

Nor has there been any serious inspection or scrutiny of the existing schools that continue to flourish especially in the lawless tribal areas that border Afghanistan - Baluchistan and North West Frontier Province.

"The government has neither the capacity to force the madrasas to reform nor the ability to influence them to co-operate," says Talat Masoud, an influential retired general, in Islamabad.

Nor is Pakistan's record on terrorism beyond reproach. In the last two months, it has released Masood Azhar, head of the banned Jaish-e-Mohammed group, and Hafiz Saeed, head of the banned Lashkar-e- Toiba group. Both groups are thought to have close links with al-Qaeda. Both are operating openly under new names despite having been listed as "foreign terrorist organisations" by the US.

"Pakistan maintains a distinction between the Jihadi 'freedom fighters' that operate in [the disputed province of] Kashmir and the 'terrorist groups' that were allied to al-Qaeda," says one western diplomat in Islamabad. "In practice the distinction does not hold."

Meanwhile, Pakistan's anti-American Islamist parties appear to be growing from strength to strength, following their impressive showing in national elections last October, where they took 20 per cent of the seats and won control of two of Pakistan's four provinces.

Critics say that Washington's support for the widely criticised elections has inadvertently boosted the Islamist backlash.

In an extraordinary speech last month, Gen Musharraf warned Pakistan's Islamist leaders of the "impending danger" of western intervention in the country if they continued to pursue an anti- American line. "Nobody would come to our rescue - not even the Islamic world," he said.

Gen Musharraf was clearly exaggerating to make a point. But an increasing number of Pakistanis are prepared to believe his claim.

Osama leaflets found near HK mosque
The Straits Times
HONGKONG - Leaflets proclaiming a Terrorist New Era with pictures of Osama bin Laden have been scattered on the ground near Hongkong's biggest mosque, but the authorities here said yesterday they did not view them as a threat.

Police said the leaflets were found opposite the Kowloon Masjid and Islamic Centre in the Tsim Sha Tsui district on Thursday afternoon.

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The authorities are investigating but have no idea who distributed them, police spokesman Cherry Yau said.

One pamphlet shows crudely drawn maps of Afghanistan and Hongkong Island, with an aircraft flying towards Hongkong - an apparent reference to the Sept 11 attacks on the United States.

Other leaflets were reprinted in local Chinese-language newspapers, depicting men in gas masks carrying automatic weapons or spray cans.

A local Muslim leader said the materials may have come from 'one or two individuals who think like that' but predicted Hongkong will not experience any problems with Muslim extremists. AP