War, and no peace - DAWN editorial 11/10

THE political equations in Central Asia are changing. How this shift will affect the situation in Afghanistan is not very clear. Kazakhstan, the leading Central Asian Republic, which had been inclined to support the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan, is now attempting to correct its tilt. That is the impression conveyed by President Nursultan Nazarbayev to Pakistan's chief executive on his recent visit to Astana. The other sign of movement in the region is the announcement from New York that the two warring sides in Afghanistan have agreed to hold talks with the UN special representative. The Taliban and the Northern Alliance have expressed a lot of scepticism about the negotiations, though.

With Afghanistan in the grip of a war for 21 years, one hardly has to explain the need for peace. The country is devastated and is on the brink of a human catastrophe as winter sets in and the food shortages are made worse by a drought. Although the Taliban control nearly 95 per cent of Afghanistan, they have failed in the task of pacification and conciliation. With pockets of territory under the control of the opposition, armed resistance will continue until a political settlement is negotiated. This is something the Taliban leadership has failed to understand, believing as it does in going for a total military victory.

The situation has been compounded by outside interference. Both the sides are receiving arms from their neighbours and the civil war has actually become a conflict by proxy. It is now widely conceded that peace can come to Afghanistan only if the contiguous states are also involved in the peace process. Hence the six-plus-two format for negotiations drawn by the UN. Some of the neighbours' interest in peace in Afghanistan has an economic dimension. Trade in the region has been badly affected because of the war and it is understandable that some of them are now so keen about finding a settlement.

The establishment of a broadbased government in Kabul offers the only feasible solution to the problem. But that would require the display of a spirit of accommodation and conciliation from the two parties. But the Taliban who are backed by only three governments believe that their supremacy entitles them to total control of political power. It is this kind of polarization that has made peace so elusive in Afghanistan.