Despite U.S. Misgivings, Clinton to Visit Pakistan

By John Lancaster - Washington Post Staff Writer - Wednesday, March 8, 2000

Despite grave misgivings about Pakistan's military government and its possible links to terrorist groups, President Clinton has decided to include the country on his itinerary when he travels to South Asia later this month, administration officials announced yesterday.

Clinton will visit the capital of Islamabad on his way back to Washington after a five-day trip to India, Pakistan's arch rival and the main focus of the trip. The Pakistan stop was hotly debated within the administration, partly because of concerns for Clinton's safety and also because of fears that it would send the wrong message to the government of Gen. Pervez Musharraf, who overthrew a democratically elected government last year.

In announcing the stopover, which will not include an overnight stay, administration officials acknowledged that Musharraf has made scant progress toward meeting U.S. concerns on terrorism, democracy and curbing the spread of nuclear weapons. But they said the president decided to go ahead with the visit in the belief that engaging Pakistan is essential to easing tensions in what is arguably the world's most dangerous regional conflict.

Pakistan and India, both of which tested nuclear weapons in 1998, have fought two wars over the disputed Himalayan region of Kashmir and nearly did so again last summer; enmities are once again running high following the hijacking of an Indian Airlines jet last December by Pakistan-backed Kashmiri militants.

"We cannot predict when the next flare-up might occur in this region," said a senior administration official who briefed reporters on the decision. "The tensions are higher there now than at any time since the last Indian-Pakistani war in 1971. We are concerned that through misunderstandings or gradual escalation, the two countries could once again find themselves in conflict."

Indian officials had lobbied hard against the stop in Islamabad, arguing that a presidential visit would reward what they regard as Pakistani aggression. Musharraf's government, by contrast, had warned that a presidential snub would further strengthen the hand of Muslim extremists who want to drive a wedge between Pakistan and its former Cold War patron.

Maleeha Lodhi, Pakistan's ambassador to Washington, said in an interview yesterday that Clinton--the first U.S. president to visit Pakistan since Richard M. Nixon in 1969--will be "warmly welcomed" in Islamabad.

"His visit to our region could turn out to be truly historic," if it leads to a Kashmir settlement "based on the wishes of the Kashmiri people," said Lodhi, repeating the standard Pakistani formula for resolving the conflict.

India has stoutly rejected any efforts at outside intervention in the dispute, and senior U.S. officials were careful to say yesterday that Clinton will not be offering his services as a mediator. Still, said one, "We hope there would be some opportunity to encourage some movement toward dialogue."

Even before yesterday's announcement, Clinton's trip to South Asia--the first by an American president since Jimmy Carter visited India in 1978--was shaping up as one of the most significant foreign policy initiatives of his second term. During the Cold War, U.S. policy in the region tended to favor Pakistan, which served as the staging area for the CIA-backed war against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan. More recently, the balance has shifted in favor of India, a tilt reflected in the president's itinerary, which includes stops in five Indian cities. Clinton will also visit Bangladesh.

Over the last several years, U.S. officials have become increasingly concerned about links between Pakistan's intelligence service and Muslim militants fighting to oust Indian forces from Kashmir. In addition, Pakistan has long supported Afghanistan's ruling Taliban movement, which provides refuge to Osama bin Laden, the fugitive Saudi businessman suspected of backing international terrorism.

U.S. officials blamed Pakistan for last year's flare-up in fighting in the Kargil region of Kashmir; last October, the country's stock dropped even lower in Washington when Musharraf toppled the corrupt but democratically elected government of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.

In January, a trio of U.S. envoys--including Karl F. Inderfurth, the assistant secretary of state for South Asia--visited Islamabad to press Musharraf for what one of them described at the time as a "road map" toward meeting U.S. concerns on terrorism, nuclear weapons and restoring democracy.

Musharraf has expressed a willingness to cooperate on all three fronts, but in practice little progress has been made. After the envoys' visit, for example, Musharraf announced plans to travel to Kandahar, Afghanistan, to talk with the Taliban's leadership about bin Laden and related issues. But he has yet to make the trip. Pakistan officials have also indicated a willingness to sign the nuclear test ban treaty. But again, they have yet to do so.

"We're not satisfied with what we've got in Pakistan as a resolution of our concerns," said one of the senior officials who briefed reporters yesterday. On the other hand, the official added, "We have had a long-standing, friendly relationship with Pakistan, and to avoid going there on this trip could send the wrong signal to the people of Pakistan that . . . the United States was turning its back on a friend."

Security was a major concern, and Secret Service officials were said to have argued against the trip, or at least for limiting it to a few hours at the airport in Islamabad. Pakistani officials, however, have made it clear that they would be insulted if Clinton did not pay a visit to the government compound in Islamabad.