Rethinking Afghan policy options

By Farhan Bokhari - DAWN (Pakistan)

THE two sharply contrasting images of Afghanistan are sufficient to confuse even the most seasoned observers of the twentyone-year-long conflict, searching for ways to assess that country's prospects in the immediate as well as long-term contexts.

At one extreme lies a country whose future which looks depressingly uncertain as a bitter internecine conflict drags on. The other extreme, however, shows increasing signs of the Taliban regime consolidating its position to become a force to be reckoned with, rather than another interim phase in a transitional situation.

The Taliban's consolidation of control over Afghanistan, almost three years after taking charge of Kabul, poses many pointed questions to some of their most ardent critics. In Pakistan, the fears over the so-called prospective 'Talibanization' of the country, leads some to demand a fundamental reassessment of foreign policy, with a view to seeking a broadening of options for Islamabad. Such a 'broadening' fundamentally calls for a distancing from the Taliban, instead seeking closer ties with other players on the Afghan scene such as members of the Northern alliance.

Whatever course Pakistan chooses in the weeks and months to come would be decisive in Islamabad's foreign policy orientation. The outlook for Afghanistan has become an especially relevant question for Pakistan at a time when General Pervez Musharraf is expected to travel across the Durand line any time soon, for his maiden meeting with Mullah Omar, the 'Emir' or leader of the Taliban. Exactly what Pakistan wants to achieve from General Musharraf's visit, other than an attempt to establish a closer rapport with the Afghan regime, depends on Islamabad's assessment of present day Afghanistan.

In the coming weeks, the outcome of indirect negotiations between the Taliban and members of the Northern Alliance, sponsored by the Jeddah-based OIC (Organization of Islamic Conference) may be crucial in setting the pace for a new ruling order. The OIC and members of the six-plus-two (the six countries surrounding Afghanistan along with the US and Russia) have recently appeared to have warmed up toward pushing for a political settlement.

However much the view on Afghan is driven by grand political and strategic considerations, the situation on the ground remains crucial to the future outlook. One part of that ground situation is the abject poverty afflicting the country, particularly in the wake of the long drawn-out war.

On the streets of Kabul, the cries of 'bakhsheesh' resonating from anyone of the Afghan capital's estimated forty thousand homeless children is one part of the humanitarian breakdown. 'Widows of the war', as many of the women beggars are known, who have no choice but to beg, especially since being forced off work by the Taliban, is yet another of the many manifestations of Afghanistan's humanitarian crisis.

Later this month when spring arrives in Afghanistan, there would hardly be reason for joy in a sharp break from past tradition during the time of rulers such as Zahir Shah, Sardar Daud and the subsequent Moscow-backed communist factions. Unlike the celebrations which marked the festival of Nauroz, the official arrival of spring, more than two decades ago, Afghanistan's contemporary spring is more about rivals positioning themselves to seek the maximum advantage ahead of the fighting season during the summer.

In sharp contrast to the days when Kabul's well known landmarks such as Bagh-i-Babur (the last resting place of Babur, the great Mogul emperor) attracted some of the city's more fashionable elite to celebrate Nauroz, there's only an uneasy calm spread across the city. Even Bagh-i-Babur, built in the memory of the prince of love, shows few signs of its past decor. While the UN has become involved in the rehabilitation of the grave site, the surrounding lawns show few indications of the rows of rose patches which once studded the sprawling grassy lawns.

Despite the many reasons for pessimism, however, the Taliban have begun to bring relative peace to an otherwise devastated country. While known as a radical Islamic lot to much of the outside world, the Taliban have brought about a remarkable change in the country's law and order environment, though society remains subjected to an ideological straight jacket. In Pakistan, just next door, deweaponization could well turn out to be a pipedream in the end, but Afghanistan has shown some remarkably impressive results in taking away guns and clamping down on the scores of private militias which once dominated the main roads.

Despite the visible order, however, Afghanistan remains far from an internal political settlement and therefore exposed to periodic bloodshed. Besides, socially regressive policies such as women being barred from work or men seeking career progressions, partially through demonstrating an obligation to sport beards, are hardly the first step towards eventual economic prosperity.With prospect for trouble still rife below the surface despite a visible consolidation of power by the Taliban, it is no surprise then that Kabul has witnessed at least four bomb blasts in the past few weeks. While the human casualties have been negligible, the Taliban have been quick to claim that the Northern Alliance, a coalition of mainly non-Pushto-speaking factions, were responsible.

The opposing sides warming up to yet another round of battle is hardly surprising. The crucial issue for Pakistan, however, is that of charting a course that's best suited to its own national interests. For recent travellers to Afghanistan, there are at least three important lessons to learn.

First, while the humanitarian crisis has reached extreme proportions in parts of Afghanistan, the Afghans remain a war hardened and tough people. Poverty- driven old men and women leaving their homes across cities such as Kabul, before sunset, in the biting chill of the Central Asian cold, is a powerful reminder of how the day begins. Kids without schools, patients without access to medicare and women without the means to earn a living, especially when left to cater for themselves, may not be a strange sight in a country like Pakistan, but a nation in utter distress like Afghanistan is something that Pakistanis have not experienced for years.

Left to themselves without a major effort to step up the pace of reconstruction in the country, the Afghans are most likely to continue to be the victims of internal strife and the ruthlessness of the global narcotics game - two reasons for Afghanistan's notoriety in recent times. But with a strong push on humanitarian assistance, there is little reason to doubt that a population as resilient as the Afghans would not feel impelled to stand on their own two feet, and lead the way to sustaining a slow but steady course of economic and social reconstruction. And while the war continues in pockets of Afghanistan, the Taliban's success in restoring order in large parts of the country could well be the first step towards a fresh reconstruction effort.

Second, while a broad-based government may be the vital starling point for Afghanistan's normalization and long-term stability, nevertheless, many Afghans have tried living a life under their previous rulers and still recall many unpleasant experiences. The main roads from one major city to another include strips lined with empty trailers which once functioned as the infamous check-posts where representatives of one Afghan commander or another would extort travellers of their money and other precious belongings.

Many women in today's Afghanistan resent the Taliban's prohibitions, especially barring them from work, but there is a widespread consensus on the view that their lives have never been as secure as today. To many in the West, such punishments as amputation of limbs or stoning to death or death by gunfire, depending on the nature of the crime involved, may sound too harsh and completely uncivilized, many victims of past atrocities in Afghanistan find themselves as peace with such powerful means of deterrence.

On the road to a new political order or a coalition, there are tough questions for many Afghans, especially ones such as why they should revert to rule by some of the country's most discredited rulers. In the end, rather than being pushed to accept such rulers, the Afghans are more likely to prefer settling for new faces who are thrown up in an evolutionary process.

Finally, the Afghans have been demonized for too long by much of the outside world. A country of 25 million with more than two decades of devastating war and sufferings conditioning them, has been closely associated with the image of Osama bin Laden, the Saudi militant in exile in Afghanistan. But demonization of nations is often counter-productive.

For Islamabad, the best policy option remains that of continuing on a steady course with Afghanistan's Taliban rulers, encouraging change through quiet persuasion rather than being tempted towards a hardening of the stance. The best result from General Musharraf's visit could be the opportunity to take another step towards constructive engagement with the Taliban on issues of immediate concern such as a broad-based government in Kabul, a more effective check on drug smuggling, gun-running and extra-territorial militancy in the name of religion and a more liberal approach to human rights, including those of women.