Dr Maqbool Ahmad Bhatty

Dawn Opinion

THE recent hijacking of the Indian Airlines plane, which spent almost a week at the Kandahar airport in Afghanistan, has served to shed favourable light on the ruling Taliban, who have suffered from a highly distorted international image in the western media. The Indian foreign minister, as well as the UN official dealing with Afghanistan, paid tribute to the handling of this crisis situation by the Taliban, who displayed humanitarian concern for the passengers while conforming to the international conventions in their attitude towards the hijackers.

This has helped correct their terrorist image. One would hope that this would stimulate international efforts to resolve the problem of instability in Afghanistan on the basis of a more benign attitude towards the Taliban, rather than one of opprobrium and rejection.

Prior to the onset of the harsh winter, there were clear signs of intensifying international pressure on the Taliban. This arose primarily from a decision by Washington to turn the heat on the faction that controls 90 per cent of Afghanistan.The US, which has declared Saudi dissident Osama bin Laden as one of its most wanted criminals, on account of his alleged complicity in the bombing of US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998, wanted him to be extradited by the Taliban.

Apart from exerting political pressure through informal contacts with Taliban representatives in Pakistan and in New York, a human rights campaign was launched, especially over the treatment of women, and the unusual spectacle of Hollywood adopting the cause of Afghan women was projected in the US media. US influence was also exerted to impose stringent UN sanctions on the Taliban that had the effect of grounding the Afghan airline, apart from affecting the banking and other transactions of Afghanistan.

There have been reports also of the US intelligence agencies planning a covert operation to capture Osama bin Laden through direct action. In the meantime, propaganda was stepped up to depict the Taliban as a fundamentalist force that was aiding and abetting international terrorism. This hardening of attitude of the "unique superpower" against the Taliban encouraged other known opponents of the regime in Kabul to step up their support to the anti-Taliban factions in Afghanistan. As a consequence, large quantities of military hardware were supplied to the Northern Alliance, which launched attacks on the Taliban-held areas in northern Afghanistan. The Taliban suffered some setbacks as well as casualties, but were able to recover most of the lost territory. The situation on the ground is that there is a stalemate, while the number of refugees uprooted by the fighting has increased.

The Taliban regard Osama bin Laden as a guest, whose personal safety becomes a sacred trust in the Afghan value system. They have repeatedly asked for proof of his involvement in international terrorism, on the basis of which they have shown readiness to prosecute him. However, the Americans have refused to take notice of this position, and are insisting that Osama must be handed over to Washington to face trial for his involvement in anti-US terrorist acts.

The very isolation imposed upon the Taliban has led to an increase in the area used in Afghanistan for the cultivation of opium, and the country is now described as the largest source of heroin, which finds its way to the West through a multiplicity of routes. Normally, recognition of a government takes place once it has established its effective control over the country, and is seen to be capable of discharging its international obligations.

The Taliban not only control most of the territory of Afghanistan, but all the major cities are also within their territorial jurisdiction. Because of the political disapproval of the Taliban by some major powers, most of the international community has denied recognition to them, with only three countries - Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the UAE - having established formal diplomatic relations.

The ground situation in Afghanistan, as we enter the new century and millennium, is paradoxical, to say the least. The regime that is recognized by most countries and also occupies the Afghan seat in the UN, is virtually non-existent. Its head, Burhanuddin Rabbani, does not control any territory. The area under the Northern Alliance is controlled by Ahmad Shah Masoud, once Rabbani's defence minister, but now a warlord in his own right. These two belong to the Tajik ethnic group.

Other personalities who continue to claim a following are the Uzbek warlords Rashid Dostum and Abdul Malik, both of whom are in exile, the Uzbek inhabited area being largely under Taliban control. Whenever a dialogue is held among the Afghan factions, the former leaders make unrealistic demands, banking on the international opprobrium attaching to the Taliban.

Various efforts were made during 1999 to bring the Afghan factions together, but nothing came out of them, because the Taliban claim that they have already taken action to have the various ethnic groups represented, through inclusion in the cabinet, and appointment to senior administrative posts, such as governors. The other factions want the demilitarization of Kabul as the minimum condition for a dialogue. This amounts to seeking to win back at the conference table what has been lost on the battlefield. The Taliban react to this demand by calling off the dialogue, and resuming their efforts to achieve the unification of the country by military means. This is prevented by massive military support to the Northern Alliance forces, and this vicious circle prolongs the bloody civil war, and with it the sufferings of the Afghan people.

With the world's attention focused on the advent of the new century and millennium, it is natural to speculate as to how the seemingly endless civil war can be brought to an end. The multilateral initiative, through the six-plus-two conference under the auspices of the UN, appears to have ground to a halt, the last meeting in Tashkent during the summer having failed to arrive at an agreed pacification formula. The underlying hostility towards the Taliban on the part of many members of the group, rules out their launching any initiative with a chance of success. The last UN representative for Afghanistan, Mr Lakhdar Brahimi, appears to have thrown in the towel, sensing that he is in a no-win situation.

Among the countries in a position to contribute towards a resolution of this impasse, Pakistan and Iran come at the top as the two of them have the longest borders with Afghanistan, as well as the main concentrations of Afghan refugees. Until 1993, they worked closely together, sharing the goal of promoting a solution based on a compromise between the warring Afghan factions. They sponsored the Peshawar and Islamabad accords of 1992, and 1993. When President Rabbani refused to step down on completing his agreed tenure at the end of 1993, a divergence developed between Islamabad and Tehran.

Pakistan distanced itself from Rabbani while Iran not only continued to recognize him but also provided support and assistance to him since he was a Persian speaking Tajik. As the civil war in Afghanistan continued to rage, local warlords rose up, creating a state of anarchy in which nobody's life or honour was safe. The Taliban phenomenon emerged in 1994 after a local warlord hijacked a convoy of trucks sent from Pakistan to Turkmenistan.

This movement, whose support came mainly from young students of religious schools (hence the name Taliban or seekers of knowledge), sought to promote Afghan unity to end the fratricidal strife, and was also committed to establishing a state based on the Islamic sharia. The goals of the movement appeared to enjoy broad popular support so that the Taliban rapidly won the support of local tribal leaders who were fed up with the endless strife.

Since the capture of Herat, close to the Iranian border, by the Taliban, the Iranian government has regarded them in an adversarial light. Apart from occupying an area that Iran considered to be within its sphere of influence, the Taliban leadership subscribes to the Hanafi school of Islamic jurisprudence which differs from the dominant Shiite school in Iran. Therefore, though the Taliban have brought 90 per cent of Afghanistan under their control, the Iranian government remains implacably opposed to it, and has been in the forefront of efforts to support the Northern Alliance.

The international community has denied recognition to the Taliban mainly because of their adherence to a rather strict version of the Sharia, in which segregation of the women is enforced in a manner that is seen as violating their human rights.

The post-hijacking scenario in which the image of the Taliban has improved to a significant degree can provide a window of opportunity to reactivate efforts for restoring peace in Afghanistan. Diplomats and media representatives from a number of countries spent a week in Kandahar and spoke and wrote in commendation of the conduct of the Taliban. They also noticed the hardships to which the hapless people of Afghanistan are being exposed. This represents one positive element in favour of greater world interest in normalizing the Afghan situation.

The Pakistan Chief Executive, General Pervez Musharraf, visited Iran on December 7-8, and Afghanistan figured prominently in the discussions with the top Iranian leaders. He reiterated Pakistan's desire to maintain its coordination with Iran in promoting a peaceful settlement in Afghanistan. Iran is the current chairman of OIC, and that organization also needs to be activated for a greater role in resolving crises affecting the Islamic world. One would hope that this could be a second element in favour of renewd efforts to bring peace to Afghanistan. As President Khatami is expected to visit Pakistan before long, a joint endeavour could be considered.

The attitude of the two major powers participating in the six-plus-two initiative is likely to undergo a change. Washington must realize that to persist in dubbing the Taliban as a force sponsoring and supporting international terrorism may carry less credibility after the role played by them during the hijack drama. Furthermore, the US would achieve its goals pertaining to drugs and terrorism better through interaction with the Taliban than through confrontation and rejection.

Policy makers in Washington would do well to maintain links as Russia under Putin moves towards a more aggressive policy, as exemplified by its steamrollering tactics in Chechnya. The Russians are obviously out to re-establish their credibility as a Great Power by using their military muscle. Washington needs to consider the risks of Moscow's increasing resort to a muscular approach, just as the new year and century sparks expectations of a more peaceful world order. Such an order can obviously materialize if the trouble spots in the world are eliminated.

The tragic civil war that has persisted in Afghanistan since 1989 has prevented the initiation of measures of reconstruction and rehabilitation which the western world owed to the heroic Afghan people whose resistance contributed decisively to their victory in the cold war. According to democratic principles, the kind of government the people of Afghanistan should have is their own affair. The Taliban have demonstrated their adherence to the universally accepted norms during the hijack crisis. This should stimulate greater efforts, at the start of the new year and century, to create light in the tunnel of violence and deprivation in which the people of Afghanistan find themselves.

Pakistan and Iran should assume the main responsibility for initiatives in this direction. The US needs to demonstrate its readiness for a fresh approach to the Afghan problem. The Taliban, on their part, may have to find some solution to the impasse over the presence of Osama bin Laden on Afghan soil, which has resulted in the imposition of UN sanctions.