As Central Asian leaders have failed to forge a more acceptable security and political strategy to deal with Islamic radicalism, the South Asia-Central Asia region is becoming increasingly unstable. It is virtually impossible for the region and the West to develop a more coherent strategy to counter terrorism. The Taliban's international isolation and the collapse of the Afghan state has created an enormous vacuum in the heart of Central Asia. While links between extremist groups are growing, coordination amongst the regional states and the international community to control them is minimal.

BACKGROUND: The Taliban have manipulated conflicts throughout Central Asia and South Asia by backing the cause of militants and allowing many of them to set up training camps in Afghanistan. They provided bases to the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), which last summer launched a major rebellion in Kyrgystan and the Ferghana valley, (see article by Tamara Makarenko in this issue) in the Taliban controlled northern city of Mazar-e-Sharif. The Taliban also play host to Islamic radicals and extremist groups from Iran, and China and Pakistan. While Taliban aided extremist groups have been a source of great concern, it was the Indian Airlines hijacking by five Taliban aided Kashmiri militants last month, which exemplified the increasing threat of cross border terrorism, as opposed to separatist and Islamic radical movements, to the countries of South Asia and Central Asia.

The hijacking brought the crisis in Kashmir to the fore, focusing attention on the ever worsening relations between Pakistan and India and accentuating the growing links between Kashmir and Afghanistan. Instead of working together to end the crisis, India claimed that Pakistan backed the hijacking and demanded the international community declare Pakistan a terrorist state. Pakistan, for its part, accused India of covering up it's inadequate initial response to the hijacking by blaming it on Pakistan. An opportunity to cooperate during crisis instead became an escalating war of words between the two countries. It was clear that the two countries are incapable of working together to fight and respond to terrorism because of the rivalries that divide them.

The Taliban provides refuge to a great variety of groups, from Sunni Iranian groups opposed to the Shia regime in Teheran to Pakistani Sunni extremists who are wanted by the Pakistan government for killing Pakistani Shias. The Taliban also trains Uyghur Islamic and separatist militants from the majority Muslim Chinese province of Xinjiang. The terrorist movements have their origin in new conflicts arising in Central Asia and the unresolved wars in Afghanistan and Kashmir. Without coordinated efforts, the countries of Central Asia and South Asia will remain powerless to bring stability to the region.

IMPLICATIONS: Militant groups are increasingly using kidnappings, abductions, hijackings and bomb blasts to put their message across rather than more traditional forms of guerrilla war. The Indian Airlines hijacking is just one more manifestation of how the conflict in Kashmir has become more violent and desperate. Guerilla war is no longer the central means militant groups use to fight for their demands. Terrorism is the tactic of choice by militants although such methods undermine their political demands even when their demands are legitimate according to international charters.

In Indian Kashmir, the change in tactics is a result of the political and military nature of the conflict over the past 12 months. The traditional guerrilla war has escalated to resort increasingly on terrorist tactics. Kashmiri militants are now mounting suicide attacks on Indian military camps, carrying out kidnappings and bomb blasts. Indian security forces respond by using repressive measures to suppress the civilian population. And the long running conflict between India and Pakistan minimizes their mutual ability to deal with regional terrorist threats.

In order to counter regional terrorist threats in South Asia and Central Asia, a broader cooperation must develop involving all countries in the regions as well as international intelligence agencies. For example, Harakat ul Mujheddin, whose five militants allegedly carried out the hijacking have been well known and followed by intelligence agencies for several years. In 1996, the Taliban provided Harakat with training camps in eastern Afghanistan. Harakat camps were located alongside those run by the Saudi terrorist Osama Bin Laden. While Harikat militants are Kashmiri and Pakistani, their funds come from the Arab Gulf states and Iraq. Their influence extends even farther. They have fought in conflicts in Central Asia, the Caucasus and Yugoslavia alongside local Islamic radical groups. Without strong cooperation between all nations in the region, groups like Harakat with their extraordinary regional links will continue to hold South Asian and Central Asian nations at their mercy.

CONCLUSION: The United States and Pakistan bear some responsibility for the crisis in South Asia and Central Asia. Its origins of the crisis can be traced back to allowing Islamic radicals from some thirty Muslim countries to come and fight the Soviet occupying troops in Afghanistan in the 1980s. Then when the struggle in Kashmir erupted in 1989, Pakistan used these Afghan trained militants and their international links to help the Kashmir struggle.

The lack of international diplomatic attention to resolve the wars in Afghanistan, Kashmir and the multiple crises in Central Asia will make the South Asia-Central Asia region one of the most unstable in the year 2000. The conflict between India and Pakistan makes it impossible for a regional effort to combat them. In the meantime, Islamic radicals and terrorists from many countries continue to receive sanctuary in Afghanistan. New tactics of terrorism as those used by Kashmiri militants fighting in Indian Kashmir indicate an alarming escalation in the use of violent, desperate measures. Islamic radicalism continues to grow in Central Asia. Meanwhile, what is likely to happen to the Taliban aided Kashmiri hijackers of the Indian Airlines plane? It is highly unlikely that they will ever be caught. Terrorist networks are now too sophisticated and elusive.

AUTHOR BIO: Ahmed Rashid has covered the war in Afghanistan for 20 years. He is Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Central Asia Correspondent for the Far Eastern Economic Review and author of The Resurgence of Central Asia: Islam or Nationalism? His latest book Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil, and Fundamentalism in Central Asia has just been published.

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